ETFS Short Crude Oil (SOIL) is designed to change each day by minus one times (-1x) the daily percentage change in the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM (before fees and adjustments). Therefore if the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM falls (or rises) by 1% in one day, then ETFS Short Crude Oil will rise (or fall) by 1%. In addition, an interest component is added each day to give a total return investment.





s7.39 or 4.80P GOOD STARTING POINT. 13 FEB NOW $3.50 or 2.50 half price sorry.

Xsteff,
What's the difference between this and CRUD[aside from the price] ?
is this the opposite of SOIL?
Alex

RED LINE SOIL

this will be a winner for 2009.

NOT TODAY

Brent is at a $2 premium to wti feb at moment, very strange!

THE WORLDS IN DEEP SH...

Hyperinflation is on the way. Fed will do anything to revive the economy and at a big price! This is the winner for 2009.

Good gain today. Not surprised as a bet on fundamental that current oil price is below production cost!

DOWN ON THE DAY, MUST TO TOMORROW. I HOPE

Didn't breach the lows of 4.58 during Christmas Eve. Dow shows good resiliences even when BOA crew up big time! Futures price very favourable.

Now this is receiving alot of attention now. Volume is increasing day by day. We have yet another higher low today.

UP A DOLLAR TODAY 5.90

how can oil be going down the pan? already in for a larger than ave %-age and will come good eventually but really didn't expect oil price to keep dropping.

"how can oil be going down the pan?"

Perception of demand short term RA dictating price movements, long term's a different matter as you say.

Watch USD vs EUR.

From the chart this looks to be running out of steam and could very soon start to fall sharply. This will indicate that the future inflationary effects of the $trillion money-pumping policies that are being employed to get the US out of its massive debts are finally starting to rightly affect the ridiculously strong US dollar.
This is when commodities including Oil will start to rise strongly.

HOPE YOUR RIGHT. MARTIN12, BUT IT KEEP GOING DOWN.

It seems there is still a great deal of physical oil "floating around" with demand rapidly falling don't hold your breath.

don't confuse oil being pumped out of the ground (saudi stores) and that being exported ..... more importantly, sooner rather than later any surplus will be mopped up, and known new wells will have to be opened up ..... and hand in hand will probably come more M&A activity of companies with proven reserves of real oil rather than just blue sky

cynic you know as well as we do at the moment supply exceeds demand OPEC realise that and will reign back their production as best they can . In the meantime the price will fall as recession bites.

the price is still very significantly "manipulated" (can't think of a better word) by sentiment and/or speculative position, just as it was when it reached $147 with guarantees by some that it would and must assuredly go to $200

cynic so you agree in the short term the price will fall?

on balance probably, though not sure where to or for how long, and cerftainly not in a straight line .... for certain, when it swings the other way, it will do so very quickly and sharply indeed ..... sentiment etc will see to that

cynic can't agree it will turn only slowly when the recession is seen to have gone.

halifax,

Can you post figures that show that supply is exceeding demand? (and not the US-specific weekly inventories).

All the articles i've seen about global supply and demand, if you go through the figures, do not add up. Ie the OPEC cuts, even those made so far, exceed the drop in demand.

halifax - will agree to disagree on that ..... the converse surely would be that the price only fell because of the actual or imminent recession .... now that is patently not true

martin - one can never really trust those stats, not least because so many producing countries covertly break ranks ..... saudi reckons it only costs them about $3 a barrel to extract from existing wells, but they have no real interest in exporting below $50/60 as that is where their internal budget is pitched ..... extraction in most other countries is very very much more expensive, and they may well not be able to genuinely afford to export at below $50/60 (or more) ... if they do so, it will be for cashflow

martin12 please remember OPEC accounts for only 40% of global production, that is OPEC's problem.

if you add russia to opec, now how much or world production? ..... confess i thought opec's slice was considerably greater than 40%, but certainly saudi has far and away the lowest production costs of any country

cynic do you honestly think Putin would want to join a bunch of squabbling arabs?

that was not the question asked ..,. though one might ask with equal validity as to whether opec would welcome him either!

We have had yet another "bubble" in oil, what next is a far more important question?

for oil? ..... reckon it will settle at about $60/70 by say mid year, and would fully expect a surge in M&A activity before sp of the likes of TLW, HOIL and PMO gets out of hand

one of the anomalies of oil is the huge discount of the front month wti. Morgan etc may predict $25 perhaps at expiry but it is a little academic when the following month may be $10 higher

nymex $36.65 falling.

buy at about $35 is my (aided) guess

thats some tumble today! looking to get out of future spreads and buy ETF's - so is this the main one for going long on crude - just wondering how the price relates to spot price and is this linked to WTI/Nymex or what?

etf's certainly far better for long term holding, no roll over's price erosion etc. and isa benefit.Futures good for playing one off each other

Ted have a look on oil thread on advfn quite a lot on there if you search back re. etf's. It seems that wti march is trading at such a huge discount because the wti depot at Cushing is full partly due to seasonal refinery maintenence, demand, inability to export...

LSE fact sheet may help you Ted.

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/NR/rdonlyres/EAFD26AC-E93F-428E-B6E2-CFA776CE0BB9/0/ETFSFactSheetLeveragedCrudeOil.pdf

Sheds some light on situation...
http://www.thenational.ae/article/20090207/BUSINESS/386867450

march nymex (settles 20 feb) is taking a real hammering again ..... down a further $0.65 to $35.40

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6cc84c30-f867-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

Falco, yeh already been on there voicing some concerns earlier, it might be that ETF's may suit me better, but miffed its CFD's and dollar quoted, instead of Spreadbet and stirling, i wanted to scalp - still dont know whether to bother, i opened a daily earlier but you have to phone broker for rollover before 7.30pm each day, its all a bit mickey mouse, cos if trades go wrong way they will turn out to be a longer term hold (until oil recovers), therefore ETF's would be favourable for reasons given...
regards

Liked this bit in particular...:)


If the index falls by 50% or more in one day, an investment in a Leveraged ETC will lose all of its value

hard to believe crude has fallen so aggressively ..... a sharp bounce must surely be due, but is one brave enough to pre-guess it

I've got an order in for $40 april, quite unusual to get a drop of more than $3 in a day. Lows seem to often occur at 1:30 and 730 respectively, wti has certainly lost the plot and the head honchos at Nymex will be under a lot of pressure not only because of this pricing abberation but also because I gather a lot of OPEC would rather be denominated in a non dollar currency

It appears a certain falseness that crude is (supposedly) $35 today, because as far as i can work out you will be paying $42 in a few days once march expires...

Have you read the book 'Rigged' Ted it's fiction but sheds quite a lot of light on Nymex

topped up today, either bravely or foolishly, time will tell

long i take it

ETFS Leveraged Crude Oil (LOIL) is designed to change each day by two times (+2x) the daily percentage change in the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM (before fees and adjustments). Therefore if the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM rises (or falls) by 1% in one day, then ETFS Leveraged Crude Oil will rise (or fall) by 2%. In addition, an interest component is added each day to give a total return investment.

Cynic,
yes long.

so you should have done OK .... did you close out?

not yet
will look on monday morning. am prepared to hold if need be as believe oil will eventually return to 60-70 dollars or more

don't disagree at all, but getting the timing right is the diff part

tell me about it in at 331p,296p and finally 244p. Thought i had got it right each time but obviously not. hope to have managed it now but not sure if enough to break even/make profit on a complete sale. might have to take profit on last batch and bide my time for the rest. in no hurry.

Where is the rise here, oil was up >10% on friday, but still this goes down????

my thoughts exactly

Thought something funny was going on here so I contacted ETF securities to get the real story on LOIL. Apparantly LOIL is currently tracking the MAY 2009 contract for crude oil NOT the spot price which has risen over the last few days.

At the begining of each month the contract will roll over to next odd month futures contract. Therefore between april 6-10 one fifth of the contract will roll over each day until 100% of the contract is represented by the JULY 2009 crude oil price (remember it follows the odd months). Therefore if you want to see the true underlying value of LOIL you must watch crude may 2009 futures. Best place to see this is the NYMEX web site.

From what i can see the MAY contract has not moved liked the spot price which may explain the crappy valuation we are seeing now. Hope this helps. Fortunately I only had a small investment in this so am considering bailing now as I bought at 3.52 (USD). I'm sure there is more to how this ETF is valuated but it seems to complex for a private investor like me to invest much more time in this. CRUD is probably a better/safer option due to the price errosion we are seeing in LOIL.

thanks for that
it seems to be the same for all oil etfs e.g. crud, oilw etc as none of them have risen

No problem, just an ammendment to my previous note, it is not tracking the MAY 2009 contract exactly it is actually tracking the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM, BUT the point is that this index is a function of the MAY 2009 contract at the moment and not the spot price, thats why watching the MAY 2009 contract at the moment will give a better idea of what is happening in LOIL until early April at which point it will become a function of the JULY 2009 contract etc.

thanks I-F,
I too did not know this. but am prepared to wait
Alex

big drop today, where is the bottom?

God only knows, but seems to be alot of buying pressure when spot price is between $30 to $35. Seems like the floor for the present moment. I will definitely be adding CRUD to my portfolio if/when spot price drops below or nears $30

is that OILW [$33-ish] or CRUD[currently $17-ish] you mean? or something else?

seems to be a better bet than LOIL[will continue to hold and pray SP doesn't drop 50% in any one day... though 6% a day is making me question my decision to buy]

loil seems to react very quickly by going down when the spot price goes down but doesn't react when the spot price goes up, actually it sucks!

Sorry, I was referring to the spot price for crude which you can see here:

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

Although its not the price you are paying for the ETFs you referred to, I think when the spot price reaches around or below $30 it will be an attractive time to get into CRUD. I'm not aware of any other way to purchase crude oil at its spot price for for my ISA otherwise I would consider it.

Just my opinion bear in mind i'm in no way an expert on this subject :-)

march nymex (so near enough to "real") is now about $34.80 ..... should be support just at say $33.50/34.00, so just possibly worth a flutter but with caution

cynic are you calling the bottom?

only a donkey would be called Bottom!
i did however suggest that there might be a rally from this sort of level, but that does not mean it will be heavenbound

cerytainly there is a counter-balance that Dow could be heading for 7200, even if the two do not hold hands

i have just sold, couldn't afford to loose any more - usually a sure sign of the bottom

cynic so perhaps like us you are sitting on the fence, gut feel suggests oil should go lower until OPEC meets next month.

i have rashly taken a small long at 3472, but am not looking to retire on the profit! ...... shall just try to make a turn ..... God willing and depending on the impetus, may exit at 35.30 or if plenty of steam, then $36.20 or thereabouts

out with a very small profit ....would not have thrown it away had i found it in street!

STILLGOINGDOWN

in/out again with a small but better profit than yesterday .... will pay for my taxi to the airport tomorrow!

good day today. bet it wont last

all i can tell you is that, from what i heard yesterday about new projects being started in 2009, saudi is cutting back sharply

Everyone needs to think of the bigger picture. The world and oil will recover. In the case of oil it will recover strongly as it is oversold. They can't produce oil for the prices they are selling it at. This will not last forever. Projects are being closed down and so when demand picks up there won't be enough supply. Refineries are working at very low capacity yet inventory builds are slowing dramatically. Surely this means they are not receiving enough oil?! Demand is picking up - most importantly y/y. More OPEC cuts on the way. Long term ratio between oz of gold and oil is 15, where is it at the moment? 22.5. Gold either has to drop dramatically or crude increase. With all this money being thrown at the economy is Gold in the medium term likely to fall? No. Is fuel demand likely to increase in the medium term? Yes. Is the dollar likely to weaken in the medium term? Yes. This will add more weight to commodities increasing.

At the end of the day LOIL is basically a share subject to supply and demand. When people decide oil has bottomed and oil is back on the up they will be piling in to LOIL and the price will rocket. At its peak LOIL was 28 times higher than it is today. There is no correlation between LOIL and the oil price or DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM just good old supply/demand. Someone bought 800000 units yesterday just after the oil inventory data. Two other people 120000 units each. These people firmly believe that the tide is turning on the oil story and peoples perception is changing.

Personally I would be putting some away and look at what it is worth in 2-3 years time. I think you will be pleasantly surprised.

CHEERS GARY.

a slightly more informative chart over more recent times .... shows just 25 + 50 dma

Somebody purchased another 600000 units on Friday. China energy usage on the up might give boost on Monday. Can we trust the figures and will it last?

Regarding ETF's
http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5612

Oil prices surged on talk that OPEC will cut production at its meeting in Vienna this Sunday.

Lengthy article in this w/e FT by Brent trader D. Picarda. The most relevant bit is the final paragraph:
"My analysis now suggests that the most likely direction for crude is still down to $31.54 & perhaps even to $24.25 further out. A surge through the 21 week exponential moving average ($54.35) would force me to rethink".

NICE DAY NYMEX OVER 51 DOLLARS

NYMEX OVER 57 DOLLARS

NYMEX OVER 61 DOLLARS

PAID 99.9p litre for unleaded.

NYMEX 66 DOLLARS soon

In a speech this week at the London School of Economics, Leahy will say tax and regulation are not the way to make consumers convert to a greener lifestyle.

NYMEX OVER 68 DOLLARS.

IS IT TIME TO SELL AND GO GREEN.

NYMEX OVER 70 DOLLARS.

IN TODAY 5.01

hope the south direction stops for you. XSteffx. good luck.

INTODAY 4.44

OVER 5.50 SOLDOUT

OVER 6.0 NOW

NOW OVER 6.10 MARTIN. BUMMER SOLDOUT TOEARLY.