Are they any good..?



currently 150p to buy.

My target is 400p by xmas.

I had these lower down....by jove do I regret selling them ? ...aahhhgadgghjjdd.....

Great chart rf I do not hold at present.

BUY BUY BUY now at 145p

Must be true.

... The true catalyist to the ranks of "Big oil" for both Tullow oil and Dana was the South Eastern North sea which for TLW led to both the Thames and onshore Yorks prospect which gave them the capital to get into Europe, the USA and Senegal ...ect ect Same scenario for Dana . . And lEA have KNOWN petroleum systems in this area . Now Woods and Mckenzie conceed that BP in their undue haste in the 70's( under political pressure) to find the truly jubilee type gushers in the central North sea .capped and abandoned many wells which seemed unattractive at the time due to the low price of oil/ gas...This waste can easily be illustrated ,and bourne out, by the fact that despite a 50/50 division of spoils between the UK and Norway reg. the North sea s riches ,BP citing high risk/low reward , has long sold up while Statoil of Norway,are still extracting hundreds of thousand of bblsoe p/d and a prodigious amount of gas and mega $$ ....With oil in the late 70s @ $14 p/b wells which produced a mere 5/10,000 bbls p/d were considered unworthy of the effort so capped and abandoned by BP. Then they sold up .Many of the best prospects went in the early licensing rounds; but they still exist.( as TLW illustrated ) and esp. in th Eastern sector which was considered too dangerous to fully expoit considering the riches the far Northern sector was producing.ln saying that the most experts believe that up to 30 billions bbls still remain in the North sea , and we have the technology now to extract it .lts a different world now. Drilling at 10,000 feet in the 70's was both technically challanging and f%%%%g dangerous with waves over 35 feet and severe gales and the doghouse was called that for a good reason . Now we have the likes of Chevron and BP with drill strings 5 miles down and doghouses more befitting of a plush manhatten appt. ...10,000 feet is like drilling in the local swimming baths nowadays ......AS for lEA -Worth watching- its on the doorstep,no crippling infrastructure/transport costs and BP did all exploration work ..... ON radar- merely awaiting spike to subside

TFC ..... if u r TFC on Yahoo messenger i have sent u an invite.

Wow what a great day.

Up 10% and no one noticed..lol.

Missed out on this one....why on earth did I not keep these...?....damn !.

any recent views on this one.

bb this is the IAE thread!

I think this is due for a good recovery.......no negative points....

bought in at 1.50 still holding, nice rise over the last week or so.

Should go a lot further,.....as long as the general market recovers bit by bit....

I agree rf.

directors buying yesterday, always a good sign I hope.

Sp creeping up slowly.....goody.....

my sentiments exactly.

something going on at ithaca, share price all over the shop.

RNS agreement with Gemini over Athena field.

Hoping for a big increase here : soon !.

rf keep an eye on RHEP they own 10% of the Athena field which is planned to produce 20000bopd next year, and is just off the coast of Scotland not in the NFB!

Will check that out this evening...cheers....

mention in todays FT reg.appointment of oil services provider whose name escapes me . Looks like s/p is recovering from its recent nadir of 105p .....bit of bottom fishing in play, or a catching knives act ?? ..Hoping the former and it acts as a platform springing it back to almost 200p..........Shall investigate this one- a lot of the same savvy guys l knew in the city who made a killing in DGO are predicting the same story here ......and RHEP ? sounds good -will take a look,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,sssheeeeesh RF is there any listed junior oilees you dont hold a position ..? :-))

RHEA was a screaming techical chartist buy at 5p a matter of a few days ago .....nice timing Halifax

ithaca up nearly 9% on the tsx.

finished the day up on the tsx 11%+ that equates to 1.28p

Substantial increase coming.....it has to......

RNS

Et voila.....superb increase.....200p now seems a possibility during the first part of the year

Buy.. buy..buy..

What is Ithacas current P2 reserve figure ?
Thanks.

42 million .

Average net sales were 3,493 boe per day. As previously notified, this figure is approximately 20% below the net average daily target for Q1 due to mechanical issues with the drilling mud handling system on the contracted rig, the Energy Enhancer, drilling the J03 well, and mechanical failure of a downhole packer in the Beatrice Alpha A28 workover well. As previously announced, drilling of the J03 well has now recommenced.

Operations to re-run the A28 completion have progressed; a replacement downhole packer has been successfully 'set' and the final stage of re-commissioning the well is underway.

The average realised price for oil sales in January and February was $107.40 per barrel (prior to hedging and any uplift at point of sale). Deliveries of oil for March are currently being priced.

The average realised price for gas production from Anglia and Topaz was 44.85 pence per therm ($7.56 per thousand standard cubic feet ('mcf')).

In order to benefit from the recent rise in oil price, Ithaca purchased a 'Put Option' with a floor price of $105 per barrel for 804,500 barrels of oil for the period March to December 2011. The 'Put Option' delivers a minimum price on the specified volume of oil and leaves the Company to benefit from any oil price upside above $105 per barrel.

Management anticipates that net sales will be increased in the second quarter by a sequence of operations that are scheduled to complete including an assumed successful Jacky second production well and the completion of workovers at Beatrice Alpha. Management continues to anticipate net average production for 2011 to be between 5,500 to 6,000 boepd net to Ithaca subject to a successful J03 well and Athena start up in November 2011.

Further to the recent announcement of the acquisition of assets from Hess Limited, the Company will add production upon completion of that transaction, anticipated in Q3 2011.

Jacky Field-Well Operations


Jacky Field-Well Operations

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM and CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - May 18, 2011) -

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX VENTURE:IAE)(AIM:IAE) announces that the J03 well on the Jacky field ("the well") has
been suspended having encountered a smaller than anticipated oil column in the Beatrice 'A' Sand reservoir.
Given the result of the well, technical work is ongoing to determine whether to re-enter the well and complete
it as a water injector to maximise oil recovery from the Jacky field.

Meanwhile, the drilling unit for the J03 well, Northern Enhancer, currently located over the Jacky platform,
will commence a workover operation to replace downhole pumps in the J01 production well. This operation is
estimated to last approximately 15 days.

Just incase anyone fancies attending - 2011 Annual & Special Meeting Presentation


The 2011 Annual & Special Meeting of Shareholders will be held at the Petroleum Club, Viking Room, 319 - 5 Avenue S.W.,
Calgary, Alberta, Canada, at 3.30 p.m. on Thursday, May 19, 2011.

2011 Annual & Special Meeting Presentation

Failure after failure for Ithaca since beginning of year.

Athena Development - Drilling Completed

Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX VENTURE:IAE)(AIM:IAE) announces the final production well on the Athena field has been
drilled and fully cased. The well encountered a considerable section of oil saturated net reservoir, with good
porosities. Development drilling has now been successfully concluded and the project remains on schedule for
production start up in Q4 2011 at approximately 22,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") (gross), approx. 5,000
bopd (net to Ithaca), in-line with previous disclosure.

RNS is good news for LHD as well with their prospective share of 2000 bopd.

Establishment of Market Share Incentive Plan

This is a Shares and MoneyAMs new quarterly publication covering the world of Oil, Gas and Mining companies. The latest edition is out today and can be viewed as a page flip or a pdf download at www.mrqonline.co.uk

Features on:

Silver
Copper
Platinum

Companies Featured in this issue:

African Eagle
Ariana Resources
GGG Resources
Ithaca Energy
Ormonde Mining
San Leon Energy

RBS out today. Possible bid!

Is this another Cove or a Bowleven?

are they anxious to sell up before Athena is due to start production?

Ithaca Energy Inc.: Operatorship and Increased ...


Not for Distribution to U.S. Newswire Services or for Dissemination in the United States

Ithaca Energy Inc.

Operatorship and increased Interest in the Carna Discovery

London, UK - Calgary, Canada, March 26, 2012 - Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX: IAE, LSE AIM: IAE) announces that
the Company has agreed to take over operatorship and increase its working interest in the Carna discovery,
located in the Southern Gas Basin of the UK North Sea. The transaction with Centrica North Sea Gas Limited
("Centrica") (the "Acquisition") increases the Company's working interest in the Carna discovery to a
material level from 16% to 32%. The financial terms of the transaction remain confidential between the
parties.

The Carna discovery straddles blocks 43/21b and 43/22c and lies adjacent to the producing Garrow and Kilmar
gas fields, which constitute the Tors facilities. The discovery was made in early 2009 when a gas column
in excess of 1490 feet TVD (true vertical depth) and net pay of 127 feet TVD was encountered in well 43/21b-
5Z. The well tested gas at a gross stabilised rate of 8.8 million cubic feet per day (MMcfpd) on a 48/64th
choke from a vertical well penetrating the Carboniferous.

The Company has agreed to a work programme with all of the Joint Venture partners to accelerate development
studies of the Carna discovery and, if appropriate to submit a Field Development Plan for approval to the
Department of Energy and Climate Change before the end of 2012.

The effective date of the Acquisition is January 1, 2012. The transaction and transfer is conditional upon
government and partner consents, as is customary.

Joint Venture partners (and their respective interests) in the Carna discovery, post the transaction, are:
Ithaca Energy (UK) Limited, operator (32%), Dyas UK Limited (24%), Centrica (40%), EWE Energie AG (4%).

Kuwait National Oil Firm In Takeover Talks With Ithaca Energy - Sunday Times
03/25/2012 | 10:12pm


Kuwait's national oil company is in advanced takeover talks with Ithaca Energy Inc. (IAE.T), the Sunday Times reported Sunday on its website, without directly citing its sources.

Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration, the international arm of the Middle Eastern state's oil operation, has been in discussions with Ithaca for several months, the report said.

If the Kuwait bid is successful, it would likely use Ithaca as a platform to buy other North Sea oil fields, the report quoted unnamed industry sources as saying.

Full Story: http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1001742.ece

FoxDavies views from the trading floor - Ithaca Energy, DEO Petroleum and Xcite Energy
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Ithaca Energy (LON:IAE) slipped 32% to 118p during afternoon trading after the company said it has ceased discussions with all potential buyers saying the process was unlikely to produce a transaction that properly reflects the value of the company, particularly in light of the volatility in global markets and the short-term softening in Brent crude prices. Despite the cessation of talks, the company said it is in a position to continue delivering long-term shareholder value through growing the company and maximizing the value of its U.K. North Sea oil and gas assets. It forecasted cash flow from its operations will increase to about $575 million in 2014 from roughly $150 million in 2012, based on Brent crude at $100 a barrel. Ithaca also said it has agreed a threefold increase in its debt facility with BNP Paribas SA (BNP.FR) to $400 million plus a $30 million cost overrun tranche. It has said it will use the facility to fund development activities and acquisitions. The company said it is now delivering value from its portfolio of assets that have been built up in recent years, in particular its Athena and Greater Stella Area developments. As a result, it forecasts that group oil production will rise to more than 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2014 from between 7,000 and 8,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in the second half of 2012.





Read more: http://www.oilvoice.com/n/FoxDavies_views_from_the_trading_floor_Ithaca_Energy_DEO_Petroleum_and_Xcite_Energy/ed0552360dcd.aspx#ixzz1wHGdesLT

Ithaca Energy has climbed 10.5% to 125p this week, after gaining two new licences for North Sea exploration blocks that offer the potential for significant expansion. One block is close to Ithaca's Athena field, which is already in production, while the second of the new blocks is close to Ithaca's Hurricane oil discovery -- the company believes that it offers similar prospects.

Ithaca Energy forecasts net production of 6,000 - 6,700 boepd for 2013
8:14 am by Jamie AshcroftIthaca’s net production totalled 610,070 barrels of oil in the period.



North Sea focussed Ithaca Energy (LON:IAE, TSE:IAE) expects net production of 6,000 to 6,700 barrels of oil per day in 2013.

The company this morning revealed its production figures for the fourth quarter of last year, inclusive of the additional interests being acquired from Noble Energy, with a rate of 6,631 barrels of oil a day over the three month period.

Ithaca’s net production totalled 610,070 barrels of oil in the period.

This comes from the company’s four operated fields (Athena, Beatrice, Jacky and Anglia) as well as its non-operated interests in these other fields (Cook, Broom and Topaz).

Though Ithaca highlights that the Anglia and Topaz operations were ‘shut in’ for a considerable part of the quarter because of issues with the ConocoPhilip’s export infrastructure which receives and transports gas from the fields.

Meanwhile it said that Athena - which is operating with a lower than designed capacity, due to a problem with one of its wells during ramp up – had a strong performance in the fourth quarter and it continues to produce ‘dry’ oil at a stable gross rate of 10,000 to 11,000 barrels a day (which is 2,250 to 2,275 net to Ithaca).

Ithaca also highlighted that its 2013 capital expenditure programme will focus on the development Greater Stella Area. In total this project will cost an anticipated US$360mln

Think I might dip my toe in the water with this one and buy in on Monday with my profits from DMGT (up 36% since Nov 2012!)
Could get at least 50%+ upside in the next 12months (imho)

I'm in as of this morning..onwards and upwards

It will be interesting to see if IAE make a bid approach for Antrim Energy, as they appear to be on the lookout again for new assets, and both businesses operate in the north sea.

There was also an newspaper article in the Daily Mail's financial pages on Friday 11th Oct 2013 about Ithaca Energy being on the lookout for new acquisition's and being fully funded to do so!

Market reacting badly to not a bad update considering that production will have doubled by the end of the year...but I suppose it expected the new oil production to come on line earlier....still ...it is a good company this ...

This is disappointing when you consider that oil production is about to treble by mid next year...crude is down...but still the same....company looks massively undervalued...

Didn't realise they had fallen so much.

That's some RNS.

Make no mistake these are in real trouble with that debt pile and I think the market knows! Sad for the North sea but these will be a casualty.

bought some at 59.81p

Large drop recently and today, now on the bounce from lows of the day. There is a seller at 60p order book, once gone will shoot up. Charting had a 76.8% fibonacci retracement.

courtesy of "NormalBias"

Preparation for sail away

Here's my take on the current situation - having carried out a tilt test the rig is back in dock taking on supplies prior to final deep water test and tow (assuming all well in deep water). I'm led to believe this because as things stand today Ithaca has contracted 4 AHST vessels (Anchor Handling, Tug and Supply vessels). These boats are designed to move oil rigs among other things.
The Balder Viking (Anchor Handling, Tug and Supply vessel) is now contracted to Ithaca from 27th July. Likewise the Olympic Octopus and the Tor Viking. nb all 3 of these vessels have recently been used for Rig moves and all 3 currently based in Aberdeen. The fourth vessel, the Boa Jarl is contracted to Ithaca from 1st August and is currently based near Bergen (presumably carrying out duties for another contractor). The Boa Jarl was hired to move a rig that looks of similar size/stature to the FPF1 during the past couple of weeks (see notes below from the Offshore Energy website regarding the Borgland Dolphin).

I understand that the oil price will impact IAE due to sentiment but as many have already posted the hedging IAE have in place offers protection from a dip in POO until mid 2017. The fundamental plan outlined by IAE mgmt remains the same - move FPF1 to Stella, hook up and pump. Deliver more cheaply than thought via the recent pipeline deal (rather than using offshore vessels which have to return to port in bad weather). My only issue beyond the irritating delays is that I'd like to hear from IAE mgmt about 2017+ plans for further expansion to demonstrate an ongoing commitment to sustained/additional production in the North Sea. Maybe we'll hear something soon when FPF1 sails into deep water which from memory is when Les Thomas promised a further update. It's an interesting time whatever happens, and I like some others am happy to hold right now during this dip as I believe the next several months offer huge upside potential. GLA.

NOTES FROM OFFSHORE ENERGY
Boa’s two vessels will be assigned to complete the move of the Borgland Dolphin semi-submersible drilling rig currently working offshore Norway.

The vessels involved will be two anchor handling tug and supply (AHTS) vessels, the Boa Bison and Boa Jarl. The company added that the Boa Bison will also provide ROV-services.
The rig-move contract, according to Boa, will begin on June 18 but the duration of the contract was undisclosed.
The Borgland Dolphin semi-submersible, built in 1977, is an Aker H-3 type rig which underwent an extensive upgrade in 1999 and received the Acknowledgement of Compliance (AoC) in September 2004.
The two AHTS vessels recently completed rig-move work for Statoil. The Boa Jarl completed a rig-move contract for the Songa Dee semi-submersible rig from June 4 – 10 while the Boa Bison moved the Deepsea Bergen semi-submersible from June 5 R

As the oil price reached a double bottom ( lately lows ) yesterday, the stock looks like has reached the bottom for the moment being also and now rising and breaking from the downtrend on the 5 days chart

Broker Forecast - Peel Hunt issues a broker note on Ithaca Energy Inc

Peel Hunt today upgrades its investment rating on Ithaca Energy Inc (LON:IAE) to buy (from hold) and raised its price target to 78p (from 64p).

59.50p +3p

Moving higher with the oil price rise of the last couple days

% rise compare - PMO, GENL, ENQ,TLW,

--------------------------------- 1 month -------------------------------------------------------- 6 month ------------------------------

61.375p +4.625p (+8.15%)

After 1pm the orders took charge and is spiking up like no tomorrow
best oil producer stock

64p +3.75 (+6.22%)

Another good move up today, help this afternoon by the rise on the oil price

and a super finish 66p +5.75 (+9.54%)

How is performing in Canada

re - FPF-1 from Gdansk to Stella

due to Gale warning FPF-1 got shelter and waiting to calm down.

Movement-
Watch this link https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8772128
and click on ‘track’ on left hand side, zoom out and see how its been moving around in circles!

There was a comment yesterday by "oil man " Malcolm Graham-Wood | Wed, 10th August 2016 - 10:40

Ithaca Energy (IAE) appears to have come to a temporary halt in moving FPF-1 from Gdansk to Stella - inclement weather is stopping it moving from Sweden through the Denmark straits - but I am reliably informed that it will be on the move by Friday.

re - FPF-1

milestones to look for:
When rig arrives at Stella,
when the rig is anchored,
when testing completes,
when production starts

note : The FPF-1 looks like is now travelling west towards Stella

HTTPS://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8772128 then click on "track"

Ithaca Energy (IAE), up 3.49% to 66.75p, said output averaged 9378 barrels of oil equivalent per day (93% oil)
in the six months to end-June. This was ahead of guidance and largely as a result of solid performance
from the Cook and Dons Area fields.

By Oil man - Malcolm Graham-Wood | Mon, 15th August 2016 - 12:37

Interims this morning from Ithaca (IAE) show that all is going to plan for the poster boy of the Exploration and Production sector.

Production of 9,378 b/d exceeded guidance of 9/- and a "solid" cash flow of $82 million (£64 million) is down to sustained reduction of unit operating costs - now estimated at sub-$25 pre-Stella - and lots of hedging: 8,200 b/d by mid 2017.

Net debt keeps falling: from being over $800 million it is at $606 million at the end of June, giving headroom of over $120 million.

Those of us tracking FPF-1 can see it on the last stage of its journey and going so well that the company has given an actual date for first hydrocarbons; remember, remember November 2017. (1)

The outlook is indeed good, strong even and, with that date in sight, production will rise to 20-25/- b/d and operating costs to below $20.

IAE shares have had a good year as the market appreciates all the good work on costs and, of course, the material change at Stella. At 65.5p, they have quadrupled in the year to date but, with so much good news coming, I am confident that there is plenty more to go for.

(1) could be wrong and be November 2016

Ithaca Energy on the acquisition trail - Written by Rita Brown - 16/08/2016 7:26 am

Ithaca Energy confirmed it was in talks to boost its North Sea portfolio.

Chief executive Les Thomas said the firm was “patiently” conducting discussions to find the right match.

“We want to do more acquisitions in the area,” he said.

“It’s important for us to be patient so we can acquire the right reserves and resource for the right price.”

The company boss said it was targeting prospects both within and out with its Great Stella Area (GSA) hub.

“We think we have gotten the company in decent shape from a cost and sustainability perspective and going forward we can look at other opportunities.”

The company insisted the North Sea was not a “one-pan” deal, highlighting how it has rescued stranded resources by striking a deal to gain access to the export pipeline, Norpipe, for future production and tie-in work. The move reduces “fixed operating costs, enhances operational uptime and improves reserves recovery”.

The company is targeting a transition from tanker loader to pipeline exporter during 2017.

The chief executive also confirmed Greater Stella’s FPF-1 will arrive on site early tomorrow morning. Mooring work will begin immediately and start-up is targeted for November.

The company boss was confident in the firm’s timetables.

“We’re putting risk behind us every day,” he said.

The company’s operating costs are expected to drop to $20 per barrel following first oil from Stella.

Stella will reduce operating costs $30 per barrel to $20 per barrel year-on-year. Stella’s operating costs tally $10 per barrel.

Elsewhere, it increased its stake in the Vorlich discovery to 33% and acquired a 75% operating interest in the Austen discovery. The pair are considered GSA satellite acquisitions, according to the firm.

Ithaca is targeting new field start-ups every two years, starting with Harrier in 2018.

It acquisition strategy centres on low cost entry to existing discoveries, according to the firm.

Oil prices rising last night and this morning, so are share prices of oil companies. Best risers during the last month from lows to highs PMO 49% IAE 42% ENQ 37% TLW 26% CNE 22% OPHR 19%

Speculation that Delek will again try to bid for the company

Delek's recent Asset Sales:

17th Feb: Attempting to sell Phoenix Holdings.
19th April: Completion of Sale Republic Companies Inc ($140m USD)
31st July: Raised 1,112,000 NIS = Circa $300m USD
17th August: Sale of Tamin & Karish leases sold to Energan ($148.5m USD) Delek's Share 52.94 = $78.61 USD
17th August: Signing of Agreement Sale of Power Station Ashkalon 200m NIS = circa $53m USD

Delek seems to be off loading assets building up its reserves
Is this the plan to launch a takeover?

A good push up since late yesterday has follow this morning, being the best oil stock since

Sunday Telegraph - Business - by LIAM HALLIGAN
Why I'm sticking with my forecast of oil rising to $60 a barrel
In the absence of a major financial meltdown, oil will end 2016 north of $60 a barrel,” this column stated at the turn of the year. It was a forecasting flourish possibly fuelled by one Christmas brandy too many.

With just four months of 2016 to go, though, I’m sticking to my Yuletide view.

Attempting to predict the oil price is crazy. Yet no decent economist can afford not to. The world economy still revolves around oil – used in everything from transport and electricity generation to the production of plastics, synthetics and so much else. And for all the breathless talk about renewables, and the grim inevitability of growing nuclear dependence, we remain addicted to oil.

As recently as 2005, world crude consumption was just 84.7 million barrels a day. That’s since gone up to 95.1 million daily, a 12pc increase in just 10 years. And that rise came during a decade when global GDP growth was rather sluggish.

Had the world economy not endured the 2008 financial crisis, and subsequent stop-start recovery, oil consumption would have grown even more. But still, for all the expansion of wind and solar, and endless hype about a “post-petroleum world”, oil consumption continues to rise relentlessly – and that won’t change any time soon.

crude oil
The oil price has surged this month, up from around $41 a barrel in early August to almost $52 last week, before falling back slightly.

This 20pc-plus increase puts crude technically into “bull market” territory. This is striking, not least because from mid-June to the end of July, oil was in “a bear market”, having dropped over 20pc. Despite this summer volatility, though, the direction of travel is clear. Oil has been climbing steadily, if not always in a straight line, from its February low of $28 a barrel.

This August rise in oil prices stems from market fundamentals on the one hand, and geopolitical speculation on the other.

Earlier this month, the highly respected International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report suggesting global crude supply will fall short of demand during the third quarter by nearly a million barrels a day.

This projected deficit comes despite the fact that the Opec exporters’ cartel continues to pump like billy-o. Having traditionally restricted supply to keep prices high, Opec has over the last two years been doing the reverse, of course – flooding global markets with oil, lowering prices to squeeze high-cost US shale producers out of existence.

Amidst record production by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE, total Opec output hit an eight-year high in July, up no less than 840,000 barrels a day on the same month in 2015.

This Opec supply surge was more than offset, though, by the dramatic ongoing slump in output from producers outside Opec. Declines in the US, China, Canada and Mexico combined to push non-Opec production down by more than 1.1 million barrels a day compared to July 2015.

Total crude pumped last month, then, within Opec and beyond, was 215,000 barrels down year-on-year. This eye-catching outcome helped to drive the International Energy Agency’s forecast of a significant crude shortfall between July and September – which, in turn, helped to push prices up.

opec
CREDIT: BARBARA GINDL
On top of this technical evidence of a tightening oil market, there are signs Opec may soon come to an output-limiting agreement, putting more upward pressure on prices.

Back in mid-2014, de facto cartel leader Saudi Arabia announced a production hike in the face of falling prices – an aggressive bid to protect Opec’s market share.

Oil subsequently plunged 70pc over 18 months, surely more than the Saudis expected. This dramatic fall, from over $100 to less than $30 a barrel, harmed not just upstart shale and tar-sands producers in the US and Canada as intended, but also Opec members – not least the mighty Desert Kingdom itself.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that low prices cost the big Arab oil exporters almost $350bn (£265bn) last year. Dependent on crude for more than 90pc of its revenue, the Saudi government is now nursing a budget deficit approaching a colossal 15pc of GDP.

Typically the world’s largest crude producer, the Saudis clearly now want higher prices. The trouble will be getting all other Opec members to agree – not least Iran. Then there are the Russians, outside Opec but obviously a major player on international oil markets. Russia typically pumps more than 10 million barrels a day, after all, often outpacing the Saudis.

Unless global markets crash, I say that year of $60-plus oil will be 2017
An informal Opec summit is scheduled a month from now in Algiers. Throughout August, leading Opec members – not least new Saudi oil minister, Khalid al-Falih – have said “price stability will be discussed” in the Algerian capital.

There’s much scepticism a deal can be struck, of course. A similar Opec “showdown” in Doha back in April failed to produce a production-cap agreement. And Opec quota-cheating – with members often pumping beyond agreed limits to garner extra revenue – means the cartel is riddled with distrust.

The key fissure within Opec is that between predominantly Sunni Saudi and overwhelmingly Shia Iran. This ancient Tehran-Riyadh schism has undermined the cartel’s coherence in the past and these days there’s an extra complication. Iran’s oil-export sanctions were lifted by the United Nations only in January.

So the Islamic Republic, despite its Opec membership, has been reluctant to agree to any Saudi-led initiative to limit supply, just at a time when Tehran has been trying to restore Iran’s place as a leading global supplier.

Significantly, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh last week confirmed he will attend the Algiers meeting in September. Iran’s absence in Doha was, according to the Saudis, the main reason that summit failed. Seven months after export sanctions were lifted, Iran’s production has soared from under three million to over 3.8 million barrels a day, but remains short of its four million pre-sanction level. Having said that, Iranian output has plateaued over the last two months – which has fuelled speculation Tehran might agree to co-ordinated Opec action to limit supply.

Khalid al-Falih
Saudi 's oil minister, Khalid al-Falih CREDIT: HAMAD I MOHAMMED / REUTERS
If there is a deal in Algiers, and it binds – with Opec holding together, and the Russians staying on board – then my end-of year oil prediction, in the absence of a Lehman-style global meltdown, will almost certainly come true.

Such geopolitical stargazing has helped push up oil prices this month. During the first week of August, short crude oil positions on the NYMEX, one of the world’s leading commodity exchanges, were at a 10-year high. A large number of traders, in other words, thought oil was set to fall back towards $30. That view has now been thoroughly trounced, with the resulting “short squeeze” helping to drive this latest 20pc oil price rise.

Aside from speculation and diplomatic wrangling, though, there’s growing evidence of an emerging supply-demand deficit.

Buried in the IEA’s latest report is the significant observation that it expects a further 900,000-barrel reduction in non-Opec output by the end of this year.

This Saudi-driven price war has seen global investment in oil exploration and field development cut by $300bn, some 41pc, since 2014. The “active rig count” – the number of wells being pumped worldwide, is down 37pc.

Before these trends are slowed, let alone reversed, oil will need to spend at least six months, and probably a year, firmly above $60 a barrel, if investors are to be convinced profits can be made, so persuading them to put serious money back into future crude production.

Unless global markets crash, I say that year of $60-plus oil will be 2017.

74p +4.50p

Supper update from the company, production higher, debt down, higher hedge $56 during Q3 than price now....
Third Quarter 2016 Operations Update - 6 October 2016

Ithaca Energy Inc. provides an operations update following the end of the third quarter of the year ("Q3-2016" or the "Quarter"). The Company is scheduled to issue its financial results for the first nine months of the year on 14 November 2016.

Highlights
· 9,550 boepd average production for first nine months of 2016 - ahead of 9,000 boepd guidance
· FPF-1 offshore hook-up and commissioning operations progressing to plan - start-up of the Stella field continues to be anticipated in November 2016
· Significant progress made on installation of the oil export pipeline from the FPF-1 to the Norpipe system
· Continued deleveraging, with net debt at 30 September 2016 reduced to $598 million

Production & Operations
The producing asset portfolio has performed well over the first nine months of the year ("YTD-2016"), with production running ahead of guidance. Average production during the Quarter was approximately 9,900 boepd, resulting in YTD-2016 average production of 9,550 boepd.

It is anticipated that full year base production, excluding any contribution from the start-up of the Stella field during 2016, will be modestly ahead of the 9,000 boepd guidance range. During the final quarter of the year, base production volumes will be reduced compared to the previous quarters as a result of the approximately two week planned maintenance shutdown of the Brent Pipeline System that serves the Company's Northern North Sea fields.

Greater Stella Area Development
Good progress has been made on the final stages of the Stella development programme since the FPF-1 floating production facility set sail from Poland in August 2016. The FPF-1 was safely towed to the field, moored on location and the dynamic risers and umbilical connecting the subsea infrastructure to the vessel installed as planned. Technip is in the process of concluding the remaining subsea commissioning works. At the same time the FPF-1 offshore commissioning programme is on-going, with preparation of the topsides processing and utility systems for the introduction of hydrocarbons underway. The scheduled completion of these activities remains in line with previous guidance, with first hydrocarbons from the Stella field anticipated in November 2016.

Significant progress was also made during the Quarter on the work programme associated with making the switch from tanker loading to oil pipeline exports for the Greater Stella Area in 2017. The 44 kilometre spurline from the FPF-1 to the Norpipe system was successfully installed as planned in September 2016. The key outstanding activities that now remain to be completed are the manufacture and installation of pipeline export pumps on the FPF-1 and the final subsea connections that need undertaking immediately prior to the switchover.

Financials
Hedging
During Q3-2016 approximately 9,900 boepd (47% oil) of commodity hedges were realised at an average price of $56/boe. The volume of production hedged in the final quarter of 2016 remains unchanged, at approximately 8,800 boepd (50% oil) at an average price of $59/boe.

Operating Expenditure
As previously guided, average unit operating expenditure in 2016 for the existing producing asset base is anticipated to be approximately $25/boe. Following the start-up of production from the Stella field this cost is forecast to reduce to approximately $20/boe, reflecting the lower unit operating costs associated with the field.

Net Debt
Net debt at 30 September 2016 reduced to $598 million. The Company has in place total available debt facilities of $730 million, providing in excess of $130 million of funding headroom ahead of planned first hydrocarbons from the Stella field. This funding capacity comprises $300 million unsecured senior notes and $430 million bank debt facilities.

Q3-2016 Financial Results Conference Call
The Company is scheduled to release its Q3-2016 financial results on 14 November 2016.

Ready for a BREAKOUT after yesterday good RNS, is now at the same point as the highest intraday high back in early July.

78p +4p (+5.41%)

The spike is now taken place after moving over the last intraday high sp is well a BREAKOUT

See following post from poster on Canada called the Doug, interesting in tanker parking in of North east England:
Oil & Ithaca

Oil

Opec seem determined to maintain the upward momentum and to bring others into the output cutting fold by November. How successful they are probably won't matter that much medium term. IEA data showed demand and production closely matched in the early part of 2016, Q3 data which at this point is part actual part forecast is expected to come in at nearly 1M b/d shortfall in production and Q4 forecast is for over 1M b/d shortfall, deepening from there.

Local North East of England news last week ran a feature on empty, very definately empty, oil tankers parked up offshore to avoid port costs with skeleton crews, the ships owners stating that there was no work for these tankers - the feature covered this from a local eyesore perspective. Similar tanker parking is happening elsewhere also apparently. Not that 1m b/d or just over 1% under production would have that much impact on tanker usage of itself, but the glut of recent years has meant that tankers have been used for storage at sea - reduction in the global oil stocks, which has little or no correlation with US inventories, is resulting in a reduction in global tanker storage.

So how will this impact the oil price. Medium term this will lead to major oil price increases and record highs probably by 2018. Shorter term things are much more unpredictable but the direction of travel is clear.

Ithaca

All good. On the Canada exchange the key break out is above $1.50, could rapidly move to $3 from there. If we assume mid November production we should see the break out, how quickly we move to $3 will depend on the oil price. Also there is a likely trigger price for a probable Delek bid, probably somewhere between $2 and $3.

Doug

The Oil Man: Ithaca, - By Malcolm Graham-Wood | Fri, 7th October 2016 - 12:56

Ithaca Energy

Ithaca (IAE) continues to deliver the goods and is a worthy member of the bucket list; yesterday it delivered third-quarter figures and an operational update that beat market expectations.

Production in the third quarter was 9,900 barrels per day (b/d) giving an average of 9,550 for the year-to-date, neatly above the 9/- b/d guidance. FPF-1 is all hooked up and first production is expected in November; this is key, it will add 16/- b/d of production and - to use an overused word - will indeed be "transformational" to Ithaca.

That will get better when the pipeline comes into operation next year after the initial export by tanker. The increased revenue next year will dwindle the debt and give the company many opportunities to grow; nearby there are such opportunities, which I expect IAE to take advantage of.

82.50p +4.50 (+5.79%)

A very good start of the day as order book is strong on the bid side 36 v 20, we could see the breakout go higher at this rate
Most of the peers on the sector are down, so augurs well for IAE

from TMF yesterday

should-you-be-buying-these-two-growth-stock/

"Low cost production

Ithaca Energy (LSE: IAE) has been recovering well this year after a tough time in 2015. The shares are up 172% since 1 January this year and show no signs of stopping anytime soon. The recently released Q3 operational update shows that Ithaca is continuing to lower costs and work on asset profitability. The company produced 9,900 boepd (47% liquids) which was ahead of the 9,000 boepd target for the quarter.

The key value lever for Ithaca in the short term is first oil at the Stella field in the North Sea. First oil is expected in November and a rapid ramp up in production should see the company reach an annualised production rate of approximately 16,000 boepd. This should drive the operating cost per barrel below the $20 mark and boost revenue and profits. In August, CEO Les Thomas said “production is running ahead of guidance, operating costs have been further reduced and we have continued deleveraging the business.”

Ithaca has performed very well in the first half of 2016 and in the next few months the much anticipated Stella field will come online. First oil has been delayed multiple times but next year should be transformational for Ithaca. It plans to continue to pay off debt and deleverage the balance sheet. This plan should be good for shareholders as the business equity price should increase if oil stays above the $45 per barrel mark. "

Take it as you like.........

from "Roth1" today 10:25

Takeover valuation
Today 10:25 - In 2012 Ithaca was in talks about an offer for the company. Rumor was that around £2 per share was on the table and was turned down because it undervalued the company. In 2012 the company was producing about 5000 boepd with oil priced at $110. Now oil is down to $52, half what it was in 2012, but in a few weeks time Ithaca will be producing 25,000 boepd, five times what it was in 2012.

That's down to FPF1 and the price of that is $600m debt against about $50m (I think) in 2012. FWIW my own calculations give a net present value for Ithaca of about £600m based on $65 per barrel for Brent, that's roughly £1.60 shareprice.

Any premium for a takeover should take us well over £2 and possibly more.
These valuations of Ithaca take no account of the potential that derives from the production platform. As things stands, current reserves will only employ the platform for 6, maybe 7 years. But, for a relatively small outlay Ithaca could double its reserves and extend FPF1 production proportionately.

Ithaca's last acquisition from Vorlich worked out at a cost of about 50 cents per barrel. Even paying $2 per barrel would only cost $100m to double reserves - the platform is potentially hugely valuable once these acquisitions are made. Any buyer will receive the full benefit of that!

86p +4.75p

The rise lately with oil price rising last night got the stock up with a GAP this morning and then a higher Breakout

82p - 8.375p
after moving well up yesterday, bad news got the stock down today.............

Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX: IAE, LSE AIM: IAE) ("Ithaca" or the "Company") provides an update on the status of the on-going Stella field commissioning programme and the expected schedule for start-up of production.

Activities on the offshore commissioning programme for the FPF-1 floating production facility are well advanced and preparation for start-up of the Stella field is on-going. During routine inspections, faults on a number of electrical junction boxes on the vessel's processing facilities have been identified and a programme of necessary repairs is underway. All other preparations are on plan. Start-up is now anticipated in early January 2017, upon completion of this additional work.

Les Thomas, Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"The safety and integrity of the facility is paramount and we must ensure that everything is done meticulously in advance of the introduction of hydrocarbons into the facility. Although any delay to start-up at this stage is frustrating, the value of a thorough inspection programme has been proven and we look forward to completion of this work and the imminent start-up of production."

Takeover by Delek announced.

After the recent rise rise and rise, the much expected bid came along
One could say from 20p to 120p in one Year .........


Ithaca Energy's is recommending C$1.95 per share takeover by Delek Group which values the issued share capital of company at C$841m and implied a total enterprise value of approximately US$1.24bn.

Ithaca said the offer provided shareholders with the opportunity to crystallise the value of their holdings in cash and represents a 12% premium to the TSX closing price of C$1.74 per share on 3 February and a 16% and 27% premium to the 30 day and 60 day volume weighted average prices respectively.

Non-executive chairman Brad Hurtubise said: "We are very pleased to announce the Offer, which provides an attractive opportunity for all shareholders to secure a premium cash value for their investment following a sustained period of share price growth and at a favourable point in the company's evolution.

"A special committee of independent directors has fully assessed the Offer, with input from the company's financial advisor and an independent valuator, and believes the offer is fair and in the best interest of the company and its shareholders and unanimously recommends that the shareholders tender their shares to the offer."

I just realised that sometime back I was speculating about the Takeover by - Delek

mentor - 21 Aug 2016 21:33 - 76 of 90 edit this post

Speculation that Delek will again try to bid for the company

Delek's recent Asset Sales:

17th Feb: Attempting to sell Phoenix Holdings.
19th April: Completion of Sale Republic Companies Inc ($140m USD)
31st July: Raised 1,112,000 NIS = Circa $300m USD
17th August: Sale of Tamin & Karish leases sold to Energan ($148.5m USD) Delek's Share 52.94 = $78.61 USD
17th August: Signing of Agreement Sale of Power Station Ashkalon 200m NIS = circa $53m USD

Delek seems to be off loading assets building up its reserves
Is this the plan to launch a takeover?