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Taylor Wimpey Fundamentals (TW.)

Deutsche Bank Buy 109.70 165.00 165.00 Reiterates

Thanks, skinny. Excellent.

I'm glad you put in the Deutsche bank buy skinny ,i didn't know that !

Jimmy, that's the latest projection by any broker
Skinny is just keeping everyone informed.
We're not the only ones here.

Joke midknight.

Jimmy stop provoking midnight....... ;)

:-)

Worth a watch if you missed it last night :-

Hot Property

Citigroup Buy 107.00 - 135.00 Reiterates

Saw that programme skinny , also nice to see another broker rec .

More good news for you, jimmy.

UBS picks TW and Berkeley as favourite housebuilders.

Surprise , surprise !

30 Jun Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy

Cilla Black will be pleased to hear that, jimmy.
You must have been a fan.

Huge Cilla fan ,go to the convention every year ,wouldnt miss it ..

So, one can see you do have something in common with Deutsche, after all.
Surprise, surprise!

I'm getting a bit worried haven't heard from Deutsche in a while now .

Rest easy Jimmy!

Deutsche Bank Buy 115.20 115.20 165.00 165.00 Reiterates

Jimmy and Deutsche laughing. SP rising steadily now.
1.54p special divi tomorrow. Jimmy
M&S cardigan on the cards.!

Good to see Deutsche back ,wondered where they had been ,, i actually didn't know about the special divi ..Very pleased with that.

An interloper on Deutsche :-

Jefferies International Buy 116.80 116.80 173.00 173.00 Retains

Trading Update

Overview

We have performed strongly in the first half of 2014, with sales rates and pricing at the upper end of our expectations. We expect to report improvements in all of our key financial objectives, with good progress made towards each of our medium term targets, which we announced in May. We expect operating profit margin for the first half of 2014 to be c.16% (H1 2013: 13.1%). We remain on track to deliver an increase in operating margin of at least 300 basis points in 2014.

more....

I knew they wouldn't let me down ....

7 Jul Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy

8 Jul Beaufort... N/A Hold
8 Jul JP Morgan... N/A Overweight

8 Jul Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy

Thank god i was getting worried !!

Tempus (Times) yesterday.

Trading Update 7 July14.

what does "300 Basis points" mean? - is that 3%?

Basis Points Definition

Jul 11: Deutsche to Jimmy: Retains TP 165p.

I just didn't want to be the one to post it today !!

HSBC also a Deutsche fan, Jimmy.

Yup still looks promising here midknight ..

July 14: Deutsche DJ plays the 165 single again.

I think it's a Long Player midknight .

Too long!

Does anybody know the average unit house price of TW. new buys?

In and outside London preferably with numbers?

Fred, try the website link in the header and do a property search - the maximum distance you can enter is 40 miles from an input location.

JUly 18: Liberum Capital: Buy - TP: 130p.

What took them so long .

21 Jul Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy.

23 Jul Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy

Deutsche issuing these notes more often now!

July 23: Credit Suisse: Neutral - TP: 127p

Surely not ,yes their back ...

25 Jul Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy.

July 25: Jefferies reiterates Buy - TP: 173p.

Jimmy, Jefferies beats Deutsche.

Deutsche wont have that ,they will have another buy rec for monday .

Interims Wednesday.

Half Yearly Results

Highlights

· Strong progress made towards medium term targets for the Group:
o Operating profit margin* up 300 basis points to 16.1% (H1 2013: 13.1%)
o Return on net operating assets** up 350 basis points to 17.8% (H1 2013: 14.3%)
o Tangible net asset value per share† increased by 9.5% to 73.6 pence (H1 2013: 67.2 pence)

· Completed 5,766 homes across the UK, up 11%, with a 10% increase in total average selling price to £206k
· Acquired 4,336 plots in the UK short term land market in quality locations
· Worked with communities, planners and landowners to convert a record 7,195 plots from the strategic pipeline in order to develop much needed new homes across the UK
· Contributed c.£116 million to local communities across the UK via planning obligations
· Maintenance dividend up 9% reflecting increase in net assets
· 2015 cash return increased by £50 million to £250 million

Re: cash return - proposed special dividend of 7.68p per share for July 2015.

Plus Deutsche repeats 165p.

July 30: Panmure ordon; Reiterates Hold - TP: 116p.

chart looks a bit rubbish, but surely this one is now looking oversold and/or undervalued

You would think so ,it seems to be a great trade between 105 - 118 right now.

Jimmy, Deutsche seems to have gone off the boil. Weird. Nothing since 1 August.

Taylor Wimpey divi H1: xd 20 Aug - payday 25 Sept = 0.2400 GBX

8 Aug Jefferies... 173.00 Buy
----------------------------
Yup that was the last one .

Added a few more today..

I was out on Tuesday at 118p. Looking to get back in on a drop .

Aug 22; Liberum: Buy - TP: 130p

Jimmy - Deutsche back today after three weeks' holiday:
Buy with no TP.

They've probably forgotten what it was/is!

They got fed up of saying 165p..

Sept 5: Deutsche back playing the 165 tune.

Sept 8: J P Morgan; Overweight - TP: 150p

Back by popular demand!

Deutsche Bank Buy 108.45 109.00 165.00 165.00 Reiterates

Do Deutsche's flags ever get to the top of the mast!

Good to see director Mike Hussey taking up 25K of stock. It does make a change from reading the usual 'free stock awards'

I have too many of these already and every time there brokers note pointing up and I buy a little more. The price drops. My TP is 150.

What is up with TSB?

Deutsche seem unable to get their own house in order, never mind what they keep saying about TW and the rest.

It may be worth buying, or watching.

It seems to be breaking upwards out of its consolidation, or side ways trading pattern on a relatively tight market to-day. Volume is with it.

I have it marked for about TP 150, but it does not owe me anything and may jump earlier.

Fundies support it, if reports true.

(Bit surprised about breaking now, but DYOH.)

ohhhhhhhhhh thank god.

Its all gone luvvy up on the top thread CHAR

Interim Management Statement

Nov 11:
Numis: Buy - TP: 145p
Panmure Gordon: Hold - TP: 116p

They got in before Deutsche Bank today !!

Nov 12:

Credit Suisse : Neutral - TP: 136p
Beaufort Securities: Buy - TP: N/A
JP Morgan Cazenove: Overweight - TP: 150p

Deutsche has also weighed in, playing the same record - must be a bit worn now.

Nov 21:
Liberum Capital : Buy - TP: 130p (realised today)
Deutsche Bank ; the usual now without TP

Mid,

Try TP of 160 on PE of 10 and "promised" EPS.

Guess what, Jimmy!

Nov 26: Goldman Sachs: Conviction Buy - TP: 210p

TW.
just noticed that sp has just broken into new all-time high

Cynic,

Ssssh!

FTSE resuffle on Weds

TW. look nailed on for FTSE100 entry.

List is announced on wed,physical change happens 2 weeks after.

You can bet tracker funds are already buying it up for entry and those short buying back.

FTSE resuffle on Weds

TW. look nailed on for FTSE100 entry.

List is announced on wed,physical change happens 2 weeks after.

You can bet tracker funds are already buying it up for entry and those short buying back.

Dec 4:
Liberum Capital 130.00 Buy
Panmure Gordon 120.00 Hold
Citigroup 137.00 Buy
Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy

If projected yield and EPS are right, Deutsche seems achievable!

145 first!

8-)

Dec 12:
Citigroup: Buy - TP: 144p
Deutsche: same tune

Deutsche Bank reiterates buy on Taylor Wimpey, target 165p

StockMarketWire.com

TW and Co

Jan 9: Jefferies; Hold - TP: 121p

I hold TW. and not pleasantly impressed with Jefferies valuation especially with the TP of 121p.

That is not saying Jefferies are incorrect, but looking at earning "projections" and promised "yield" I would have a high valuation.

But scanning around it seems that many of the "builders" have been downgraded. =

===

The downgrade may be based on UK economic expectancy.

Anybody know what is Jefferies record like in this area is?

But I know less than Manuel. 8-{

zebedee - i hold these too, both as cfd and also in sipp ..... they're a well run company with an excellent track record, so am more than happy to stay with them ..... that said, i'm sure their target market is pitched some way above the likes of BDEV, but below that of BKG

given that the country certainly needs many more houses and, whatever you may say when flying your political banner, the economy is certainly on the up and assuredly much stronger than elsewhere in europe

with that in mind, i am seriously considering adding MBH to my sipp, though i have a natural aversion to MM-only stocks

Jefferies seem to having turned on the whole sector from house building through kitchen suppliers and estate agents!

However, the market has reacted to Jefferies downgrades... most of
the stocks Jefferies has savaged are down considerably, some drastically.

Manuel,

I may be unsure about the economic future of UK at the moment, but think it is improving. My real gripe is that it could be better than it is, and the vicious "austerity" application was not the best route to take over the last 4 years.

My feelings about TW. are similar to yours and it is one of my biggest holds from well back and I also hold SBs. which I increased earlier this am.

I have my legs crossed routinely.

easy to say "could be better" isn't it ...... it could be raining if it wasn't sunny :-)


legs x'ed? .... have you had your psa levels checked recently?

That is the power of the word "could". But it also "may" meaning that one is "considering" rather being stuck in a rut going nowhere quickly.


-------------------------

Anyway.

"(Reuters) - Britain's housing market cooled further in the three months to December as house prices rose by 7.8 percent compared with the same period last year, the smallest increase since last January, mortgage lender Halifax said on Thursday.

In December alone, prices rose by a stronger-than-expected 0.9 percent after a 0.5 percent increase in November, marking the biggest monthly increase since July.

Economists had expected prices to rise by 8.0 percent on the year and 0.3 percent on the month, according to a Reuters poll.

Halifax reiterated that it expects house price growth to moderate this year to between 3 and 5 percent.

"The deterioration in housing affordability as a result of rising house prices, earnings growth that has been consistently below ... inflation until very recently and speculation of an interest rate rise, have combined to temper housing demand since the summer," said Martin Ellis, Halifax's housing economist.

The Bank of England has welcomed signs that Britain's housing market is cooling off after double-digit price gains in the middle of last year, restrained at least in part by new controls on mortgage lending.

Halifax's quarterly rate of house price growth slowed to 0.3 percent, the lowest reading since November 2012.

Last week Nationwide, another mortgage lender, said house prices rose at the slowest annual rate in more than a year, but it expected the market to recover in 2015 if the economy improves as expected.

(Reporting by Andy Bruce; Editing by William Schomberg and Toby Chopra)"

on the other hand, it is also a valid opinion that tough austerity was the best option at the time, and arguably, even now has proved to have been generally correct

Re Jefferies,

Broker demolishes housebuilder 'buy' case

Trading Statement

Overview

Pete Redfern, Chief Executive, commented:

"As we enter 2015, we are encouraged by the more balanced market conditions, with a lower rate of price growth, which should create a healthy and more sustainable housing market. This is good news for homebuyers and underpins our confidence in developing and growing our business.

Taylor Wimpey starts the year in an excellent position and whilst the global economic outlook is uncertain, in the UK we have an environment of sensible mortgage regulation and a reduced risk of UK interest rate increases in the near term. Overall we believe that the market and political risk for our sector is balanced and will allow Taylor Wimpey to continue to make significant progress towards our medium term targets."

UK current trading

During the second half of 2014 we saw a return to a healthier and more balanced housing market after a very strong first half of the year. The UK housing market continues to grow and, since our interim management statement on 11 November 2014, we have continued to see positive signs, with prices increasing slowly as previously described. This is underpinned by solid consumer confidence and good mortgage availability and affordability.

Against this backdrop, and in line with our strategy, we have continued to grow steadily and sustainably, delivering increased completions and creating additional value.

In 2014, total home completions increased by 6% to 12,454 (including our share of joint venture completions), up from 11,696 in 2013, of which 17% were affordable home completions (2013: 18%). Our net private reservation rate for the full year was 0.64 homes per outlet per week (2013: 0.62) with cancellation rates of 14% still at low levels (2013: 13%).

Average selling prices on private completions increased by 11% to £234k (2013: £210k). This increase is both a result of our underlying shift to better quality locations and capturing market sales price increases. Our overall average selling price has increased by 12% to £213k (2013: £191k).

We enter 2015 with a record order book, which has increased in value by 12% to £1,397 million as at 31 December 2014 (31 December 2013: £1,246 million), excluding joint ventures, driven largely by the strength of private reservations. This order book represents 6,601 homes (31 December 2013: 6,627 homes). We view this as the optimum size for the business at this point in the cycle.

Land portfolio, planning and outlets

The short term land market remained balanced and disciplined throughout 2014. As stated previously, whilst we continue to source and invest in short term value-creating land opportunities at similar margins to 2013, we have reached our optimal short term landbank size and so our strategy is to maintain, rather than grow, this proportion of our landbank.

The strength and quality of our strategic land pipeline is a key differentiator for Taylor Wimpey. We are particularly pleased to report a record performance during 2014, where we converted over 9k plots from the strategic pipeline into the short term landbank.

We enter 2015 with 305 outlets (31 December 2013: 314), with the decrease due to faster outlet closings in a healthier market and the time required to meet additional planning permission requirements to start working on site. We expect the total number of outlets to increase in 2015, reflecting our success in the land market and our continued focus to get newly acquired sites and phases opened properly and efficiently.

Spain current trading

The Spanish market remains stable. Our newly acquired sites performed well during 2014 due to their better quality locations and have driven a significant improvement in performance. During 2014, we completed 164 homes (2013: 118) at an average selling price of €250k (2013: €229k). The total order book as at 31 December 2014 stands at 233 homes (31 December 2013: 195 homes). The Spanish business will deliver an improved operating profit* for 2014 (FY 2013: £0.1 million operating profit*).

Group financial position

The Group will report an improved full year operating margin of slightly over 400 basis points ahead of FY 2013 operating profit* margin (FY 2013 13.6%).

We are pleased to report that we ended the year with net cash of c.£113 million, which is slightly ahead of expectations and significantly ahead of the prior year (31 December 2013: £5.4 million net cash). This is largely as a result of outperformance in underlying trading, whilst at the same time continuing to invest in our landbank as we approached our optimal scale.

Outlook

We welcome the Government's Autumn Statement announcement of a reform of Stamp Duty Land Tax payments to a more progressive system, which we believe will help more homebuyers to get onto and move up the property ladder. With the upcoming General Election in May, housing continues to remain high on the political agenda with recognition of the importance of housebuilding to the economy and the need for more quality homes in the UK. Whilst the macro economic outlook is uncertain, with a reduced risk of UK interest rate increases in the near term and sensible mortgage regulation, we believe that the market and political risk for our sector is balanced as we enter 2015, and the outlook remains positive.

We start the year in an excellent position, with our active sites and future outlets in great quality locations where people want to live. Our strategy has been and remains to deliver ongoing and sustainable increases in volume and margin over the medium term. We are confident that in current market conditions we can deliver significant progress against these objectives in 2015.

2015 is the first year of our 2015 - 2017 medium term targets, which we announced in May 2014. We are well placed to make a strong start to 2015 and are confident that we will continue to demonstrate significant progress through the year.

* Operating profit is defined as profit on ordinary activities from continuing operations before net finance costs and exceptional items, after share of results of joint ventures.

-Ends-

Jan 12:
JP Morgan : Overweight - TP: 150p
Panmure Gordon: Hold - TP: 120p
Liberum Capital: Buy- TP: 130p Buy
Citigroup: Buy - TP: 144p
Deutsche Bank: Buy - TP N/A

Where next for the housebuilding sector?

StockMarketWire.com
Taylor Wimpey has hiked its FY pretax profit to £468.8m, from £306.2m. Revenue was £2.69bn, from £2.3bn. Its total maintenance dividend was 1.56p a share, from 0.69p, with the final dividend at 1.32p, from 0.47p.

CEO Pete Redfern said 2014 was an excellent year for Taylor Wimpey, delivering a 54% increase in operating profit whilst contributing £300m to communities via planning obligations, providing key infrastructure, education and affordable housing.

"The beginning of spring selling season has seen trading at the better end of expectations. Customer confidence is high with good levels of employment and an affordable mortgage environment.

"The UK housing market remains healthy and we are very confident in our ability to maximise returns on our investments whilst continuing to invest in the underlying quality of the business.

"We believe that the current strong performance can be sustained and improved and therefore we have proposed a doubling of the 2014 maintenance dividend pay-out to the top end of our dividend policy range."

Looking ahead, Redfern said:
"We are currently operating in a housing market underpinned by a significant structural demand and supply imbalance. Housing remains high on the political agenda with recognition of the importance of housebuilding to the economy and the need for more quality homes in the UK by all of the main political parties.

"Whilst there remains uncertainty around the outcome of the General Election in May, consumer confidence remains solid and is supported by healthy underlying demand, low interest rates and high levels of employment. We therefore consider that the UK near term market risk is low.

"The beginning of the spring selling season has seen both demand and trading at the better end of our expectations. Net private sales rates for the year to date (w/e 1 March 2015) of 0.70 are at healthy levels (2014 equivalent period: 0.72) and within the range we see as sustainable.

"With slower market growth, we anticipate reducing build cost pressure in 2015.

"As at 1 March 2015, we are 51% forward sold for private completions for 2015 with a strong total order book of £1,657 million (2014 equivalent period: £1,529 million). This together with our strong landbank, with over 50% of plots sourced from the strategic pipeline, positions us well for 2015 and beyond.

"We remain confident that our long term strategy, enhanced by the stretching medium term targets we announced in May 2014, will enable us to maximise the best quality returns from our investments on a sustainable basis across the housing cycle."

Skinny,

Thanks for the direct to Where next for the housebuilding sector?

Interesting, I am heavy on builders and relieved not to be out on a limb.

Skinny,

Thanks for the direct to Where next for the housebuilding sector?

Interesting, I am heavy on builders and relieved not to be out on a limb.

Perhaps you may be interested in this then - UK construction growth unexpectedly surges in February - PMI

Mar 16:

Goldman Sachs: Conviction Buy: TP: 202

Deutsche; Buy - TP now 173p

They are so fickle! :-)

to my mind it's a toss up between TW and BDEV, both of which perform similarly
a good place to be both before the budget and the election

Plus div 9th april 1.32p and 21st May 7.68p

M.

Buy both.

I hold TW since 2009 and BDEV for a shorter period.

Also, hold SBs with wide stops for trading.

Liberum Capital Buy 150.35 150.50 152.00 165.00 Reiterates

i think house builders in general has to be the right sector even before the election

cynic, I agree - a Sector that's seeing Demand and NIMBY regulations appear to be restricting all but expensive developments.
What I don't understand is why on the one hand we need so many Houses, yet we ( Govs ) fail to build them. Never understood "Affordable", either - surely that means a modest multiple of Wages?, That varies across the Country...forget London/SE and elsewhere houses should be starting at £100k for a 2-bed with parking on the drive. That's hardly enough for a modern family with 2+ children and 2x cars . . . . meaning they need something like 4-bed with double garage.. ~£150k - but with land in such short supply, that price would be impossible...
Do we need to have a better/cheaper/faster method of building?

yes but people wouldn't like it

just as pre-fabs were put up just after the war, and lasted many many years longer than anticipated, so now we could use 20/40' shipping containers
these are already used as temporary accommodation and offices all over the world including uk, and nor need they be visually ugly

unfortunately, and it is a sad fact, the current wannabe house owner wants (tries to demand) accommodation that is far beyond realistic expectations, let alone income

we should also be doing far more to regenerate existing but empty but (relatively) derelict stock

"Do we need to have a better/cheaper/faster method of building?"........These guys are trying to do it, but are struggling to make money out of it at the moment:

http://www.marcityhomes.com/mar-city-homes/unique-modular-homes/

btw, straw is another method of cheap, highly energy efficient and surprisingly long-lasting construction
a major downside is that the walls are about a foot thick, so the footprint is much greater than for a traditional house

Harry, it's a shame they seem to be struggling, as it makes sense - some chain hotels have been using this modular approach for some years.

Cynic - a foot is about similar to a modern cavity wall - see the bottom row here.

Yes, but when I read luxury apartments where does it leave the average homebuyer!
So we're back to square one.

In Solihull! :-)

at present yes, but i believe my solution (#109) would truly work but no one in power seems to want to explore something quite so obvious

of course, first time buyers would help themselves if they weren't quite so precious with sights set on 3-4 bedrooms + garage + garden! .... oh, and of course a really nice neighbourhood with first class schools

Our Uni currently using straw for insulation. Maybe very cheap as we have Norfolk Broads reed beds not far away. Might be fine for Uni, but not so sure about housing.

https://twitter.com/adaptcbe/status/575675323704078337/photo/1

i heard about it on the wireless a few weeks back .... i'm sure it's near bristol that there's a whole housing development using this medium (straw) .... go read all about it :-)

Skinny, the bale is 18" wide, so when you've daubed your cowmuck render on both sides it could be up to 24" wide. :)

BB - you're in the right area ... do you know of he project about which i'm talking?

Thanks BB - I was working with the 'about a foot thick' - should always check!

Sorry skinny I have seen it done on tv but don't know the project your referring to.

worlds first commercially available straw eco-homes
The BBC visited, what is believed to be, the worlds first commercially available houses built using straw. The seven houses being built in St Bernards Road, Shirehampton Bristol, use the ModCell prefabricated straw bale panel system as the main envelope of the building.

Sounds at bit like the present coalition government, which is going to be blown down in r a few weeks time.

8-)

bad news fred
these houses have great longevity and have now been approved for long term mortgages

:-)

How long?

don't know off-hand, but clearly if approved for mortgages, must be at least 50 years and probably 100

it really is a very interesting concept, the only serious downside being the larger footprint required due to the wall thickness

i guess they're very cheap and probably quite easy to repair
categorically they are highly energy efficient
the basic straw bales, though they must be treated in some way, are cheap, plentiful and a renewable source

i'ld be interested to know what they do for foundations and/or how the house itself is attached to this

this tells you a bit more ..... www.theguardian.com › Environment › Energy efficiency
or just look up "straw house project bristol"

BB - I was referring to post 111.

Straw insulated "plastic" double wall comes to mind.

help for house buyers in budget.

Liberum Capital TP 165p realised.

Deutsche on 173p

Apr 10: Jefferies; Buy - TP; 189p

With the Politicians falling over each other to "Invest in building more houses" we might expect TW. to benefit, and this new "insulation" may help the flat-earthers/Eco Brigade, - yet one issue is that any "Plastic" is likely to have a relatively short-life, due to changes over time..... very difficult to predict ((Er, thank goodness PVC electric wiring is OK.)...we'll have to hope uPVC is as good as Window-salesmen claim . . . . )).

We should not forget that the "insulation" isn't the plastic/straw - rather it is the lack of air-circulation . . . if this can be reduced ( as in Thermos Flask), then the heat transfer can be surprisingly small. However, building it into a wall is "risky" IMHO, since you cannot inspect it ( Nor change anything, if a better material comes round.)

Of course the primary purpose of the wall is to support the structure - but it has a duty to keep us dry and any insulation must remain "dry" to fulfil its purpose.

Good to see the sp rise, even during the Election run-up . . . always a time of uncertainty. It would be nice to see the yield greater than 1% - that's really too little.

Trading Statement

Ex-divi 21st May 2015 (7.68p)

Apr 23: Citigroup: Neutral - TP: 153p

On the climb nicely this morning.,.

i sold my trading block in these a week or two back but still hold in my sipp
however, have added BVS to my trading portfolio this morning

Storming ahead -

May 18: Deutsche; Buy

May 21: xd for special dividend 7.68p

I'm in.......... lol

Maybe wrong, but I dumped my SBs a little earlier to-day, but continue to hold shares for future growth and yield.

At the moment TW is my largest hold over 5 years. Restored my faith in the market.

May 26: Deutsche; Buy and raises TP to 210p

GOOD!

:-)

Housebuilder target prices up by as much as 26%

Thanks skinny.

May 28: Citigroup Neutral - TP: 160p

Don't often see UTs for TW. with such numbers:

16:35:07 183.50 170,703,934 UT 183.20 183.50 Buy

June 3: JP Morgan: Overweight - TP: 205p

July 6: Brclays: Equalweight - TP:206.60p

Trading statement on Wednesday.

T

This Fund Manager has sold TW and says
it has become too expensive.compared with its peers.

Merrill Lynch seem to still quite like TW.
"Our key picks in the sector are Persimmon, where we have raised 2016 EPS forecasts by c6%, Taylor Wimpey which also has very strong cash flow characteristics, and Redrow. We are especially attracted to PSN and TW which offer dividend yields of 5.9%, and 7.9% respectively. Redrow, pays a very modest dividend, but on a PE basis is the cheapest stock in the sector on 8.4x 2016E."

July 14: Deutsche; Buy - TP: now 210p

StockMarketWire.com
Taylor Wimpey has advanced its H1 pretax profit to £237.2m, from £197.3m. Revenue totalled £1.34bn, from £1.19bn. Interim dividend was 0.49p a share, from 0.24p a year ago.

CEO Pete Redfern commented:
"We have used the opportunity of a stable and positive housing market to make significant progress towards our medium term financial and quality objectives.

"We are confident of achieving the three year financial targets that we established in 2014, and continue to invest in recruiting and developing our people and enhancing the quality of our homes.

"In line with our strategy, we have proposed a cash return of £300 million to be paid in July 2016, which takes our total cash returns to shareholders since we started the programme in 2014 to £600 million."

Highlights:

· Strong 2015 first half performance: Completed 5,842 homes (excluding joint ventures) across the UK, with a 9.2% increase in total average selling price to £225k (H1 2014: 5,695 homes at £206k), in a resilient and growing housing market; Record contribution of £55.9k per completion (H1 2014: £45.3k per completion)

· Significant progress made towards the Group's three year medium term targets: Operating profit margin up 310 basis points to 19.2% (H1 2014: 16.1%); Return on net operating assets up 540 basis points to 23.2% (H1 2014: 17.8%); Tangible net asset value per share⬠ increased by 11.5% to 82.1 pence (H1 2014: 73.6 pence), with 15.6% growth in net assets before cash distributions; Converted 45% of operating profit* to operating cash flow*** (H1 2014: 27%) on a rolling 12 month basis

· Further cash return of £300 million proposed, to be paid in July 2016, 20% ahead of the 2015 payment (July 2015: £250 million), reflecting increased cash generation and profitability.

July 29: Liberum Capital: Hold - TP: 165p

July 30:
Deutsche: Buy - Raises TP from 210p to 231p
Beaufort: Buy
JP Morgan: Overweight

Aug 3: Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy and ups TP from 207p to 215p.

RBC Capital downgrades TW. to outperform from top pick.
TP raised from 190p to 220p.

I hope it happens!


Which year?

Any ideas for the drop in price yesterday?

House prices , a bubble waiting to burst again ? do we never learn .

I have been wondering what to do with this one for a few weeks.

206p seems a resistance?


Think I will hold having Director Deals - Taylor Wimpey PLC (TW.)

BFN

Humphrey Singer, Non Executive Director, bought 25,000 shares in the company on the 18th December 2015 at a price of 196.60p. The Director now holds 25,000 shares representing 0.00% of the shares in issue.

Story provided by StockMarketWire.com
Director deals data provided by www.directorsholdings.comread:


-=-=-=-

Could be right!

He is a new independent non- exec director as from 9/12/15 so this is his first purchase so I wouldn't read too much into that Fred.
2517

Agreed, but it is better than a sell.

TW's profit

StockMarketWire.com

Taylor Wimpey has hiked its FY pretax profit to GBP603.2m, from a profit of GBP468.8m. Revenue had improved to GBP3.14bn, from GBP2.67bn. Total maintenance dividend was 1.67p a share, from 1.56p.

It completed a total of 13,219 homes (excluding joint ventures) across the UK, up 7.5% from the prior year's 12,294 homes. There was an 8.0% hike in total average selling price to GBP230,000, from GBP213,000.

Taylor Wimpey said it had a record year-end order book representing 7484 homes, from 6601 at end-2014, with a total value of GBP1.78bn, from GBP1.4bn, excluding joint ventures

CURRENT TRADING AND OUTLOOK

"The UK housing market remained robust during late 2015 and has strengthened into the beginning of 2016. The market continues to show price growth and very good sales rates across most geographies.

"In central London, the market is stable, with flat prices and sales rates returning to a more normal level.

"The net private sales rate for the year to date (w/e 21 February 2016) is 0.77 (2015 equivalent period: 0.68). As at 21 February 2016, we are c.50% forward sold for private completions for 2016 with an excellent total order book of �2,030 million (2015 equivalent period: �1,630 million), excluding joint ventures.

"We have been successfully operating to our strategy for five years now, running the business according to our underlying principles. During that time we have invested heavily in land and people development.

"In 2015, we delivered record operating results, and returned over �308 million to shareholders by way of total dividend. Today, Taylor Wimpey has one of the largest strategic land pipelines in the sector with c.107k potential plots, together with a high-quality short term landbank of c.76k plots.

"The success of our strategy over the last five years, partially helped by a stable and positive market, has given us the opportunity to focus on continuously improving our business processes and systems, including our customer service, ensuring consistency across our 24 business units."

Deutsche Bank today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Taylor Wimpey PLC (LON:TW.) and raised its price target to 247p (from 233p).

Anyone unhappy, like I am, about the drop in SP over the last few days, may feel a little happier by looking at the after hour trade reports for the last week.

This stock has traded sideways (within a range) for nearly a year. Wouldn't that indicate that it is fairly valued?

TP about 210 from brokers.

06-Apr-16 Charles Stanley Buy 193.70p - - Reiteration
24-Mar-16 Goldman Sachs Neutral 186.80p - 231.00p Reiteration
17-Mar-16 HSBC Buy 188.50p - 210.00p Reiteration
02-Mar-16 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 182.30p - 220.00p Reiteration
02-Mar-16 Canaccord Genuity Buy 182.30p - 210.00p Reiteration

From EPS projections 210- 230 (if you believe them).

Future Yield promises are good!

Shortage of housing, and drop due to over sale before recent change of taxation.

Cockeyed market due to Brexit.


Could be wrong.

Can Housebuılders get anymore prıcıng power ın wıth values already on levels out of reach for most?

May be thıs ıs the top!!! For now.

They are all a bit weaker again today, you may be right CD.
Fred, brokers rec's to be taken with a huge block of salt, why would they post their rec's for all and sundry to digest, is that not disloyal to their fee paying clients' ?
2517

Have a look at projected earnings etc.

But this market is all over the place.

Another, interest to me is sales posted past the close.

TEF hasn't faired too bad today compared to the rest .

Taylor Wimpey remains on track

StockMarketWire.com

Taylor Wimpey said it remains on track to deliver good progress towards all of its medium-term targets in 2016. The company was performing well against a positive housing market, it said.

"The UK housing market continues to be underpinned by good mortgage availability and employment prospects," it said in a trading update.

"As at 24 April 2016 we are c.70% forward sold for 2016 private completions, positioning us well for the remainder of the year and beyond. As expected, the rate of build cost inflation has reduced, and we continue to anticipate underlying build cost increases of 3-4% in 2016.

"We believe that the recent House of Lords amendments to the Starter Homes provisions in the Housing and Planning Bill reduce the future risk of the scheme. If passed, these changes will ensure that the Starter Homes initiative provides an incremental improvement to the housing market.

"The uncertainty surrounding the European Union (EU) referendum has not impacted trading to date, and underlying demand remains solid across all of our geographies.

"Due to our customer base and supply chain being based principally in the UK, together with our strong order book, we are well equipped to react to any potential changes in the market that may be caused by the EU referendum."





Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

It's all Well and Good TW. saying they have a progressive dividend policy, when the div. is pathetically low DYOR. The extra-cash hand-out (May?) is hardly a correction, however welcome.
The Annual Report sp-graph conveniently forgets these shares were close to £4 prior to 2005.
EDIT(25Jn2016)-Well "BrExit" has done for us! TW down ~30% allowed DIR Baroness to buy 2x£20k-worth - a nice discount.....
I read ( see posts below), from FT..... "....UK housebuilders – including Taylor Wimpey – have seen their share prices pare back since January after a three-year winning streak, due to concerns that foreign investors would be deterred from the property market it Britain’s left the EU....."
So it is particularly odd that TW has been so severly punished - but that's Markets for you. Did anyone else buy . . . -or maybe wait for a further fall, if/when the French get nasty?

and fred was probably not showing signs of dementia at that time either

TW. up 5% This am.


http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/05/17/taylor-wimpey-upgrades-forecast-raises-dividend/

Taylor Wimpey, one of the UK’s largest housebuilders, has upgraded its profit guidance and said it will boost its dividend payout, citing a “very positive” housing market with “high” consumer demand and confidence.

The FTSE 100 group said ahead of an investor day that it was confident in its business “against the backdrop of a strong, growing housing market”, after last month reporting that its order book was up 7.5 per cent from the same time last year.

It raised its guidance on operating profit margins to 22 per cent for the period between 2016 and 2018, and said that it will boost its total dividend payout for 2017 by 26 per cent to 13.8p a share, subject to shareholder approval. In 2015 its operating profit margin was 20.3 per cent and its total dividend payout 11p a share.

Taylor Wimpey said:

We believe that the land market is structurally different in this cycle, with fewer players and higher barriers to entry with increased upfront capital costs and expertise required to progress sites through the planning system.

The construction company said last month that its trading has been unaffected by the upcoming referendum on European Union membership, despite a series of estate agents warning of a fall-off in transactions.

UK housebuilders – including Taylor Wimpey – have seen their share prices pare back since January after a three-year winning streak, due to concerns that foreign investors would be deterred from the property market it Britain’s left the EU.

Analysts have warned that uncertainty around the referendum could damp demand for property assets just as the supply of high-end homes increases.

Doing well.

Worth a look!

Date Broker New target Recomm.
18 May Beaufort... N/A Hold
18 May JP Morgan... 250.00 Overweight
18 May Deutsche Bank 261.00 Buy
17 May Canaccord... 210.00 Buy
17 May Peel Hunt 205.00 Hold
17 May Liberum Capital 161.00 Sell
16 May Deutsche Bank N/A Buy
10 May Canaccord... 210.00 Buy
9 May Deutsche Bank N/A Buy
4 May Canaccord... 210.00 Buy

XD on 2/6 (9.2p)
2517

That will do.

Are they soon ready for the pick up?
They have been falling heavily for the last couple days and at 115p they seem having some support at the moment
as they move up and down from 113 to 116p

I agree at some point ,house builders getting hammered ,we still have a shortage of houses even if we slow down immigration .
Barratt the same.

It's too early - this drop will continue for next few days, don't catch a falling knife.

I agree. More downside to come for all stocks which are UK focused and reporting figures in Sterling.
Defensives for the moment are companies with $ earnings.

Bought some at 113p
Had to go to the MM as a long settlement T +15 was not accepted on the Platform

I said i agree at some point ,,there are several stocks like these worth watching ,i wouldn't buy yet but if they are going to hammer them down to silly prices (which they probably will) then they are worth looking at.

Order book has change from mainly this morning weakness

For the last 15 minutes the bid side has change and the DEPTH (no. orders ) is well ahead of the offer side.

I hope is the starting of a bounce back

Closed @ 116p, just a bit of bounce back at the end

The chart does not work properly and showing 112.15p, it looks like is 15 minutes behind or just stop working

you did well to duck out even with a diddly profit
logic says that the markets must surely have fallen enough, but logic and reality have little correlation these times

Directors Shareholding

2 directors bought shares last Friday and one today paying much higher prices 145, 146p and 134.76p today

Trade of 11M as UT @ 115.80p

That is a very large trade at the end
16:35:16
115.80p
11,532,827 UT

edit 11:12pm

Questor share tip: Housing stocks creaking under Brexit uncertainty

House prices have continued to rise this year, even with the EU vote looming
Marion Dakers - 27 JUNE 2016 • 6:36PM
Taylor Wimpey £1.16 -20.3p
Questor says Avoid

The dust is far from settled following the Brexit vote last Thursday, and stocks are in flux throughout banking, property and transport.

Housing developers have been on the receiving end of some particularly aggressive selling in recent days, as investors fret that the decision to leave the EU will curb domestic appetite and scare off overseas buyers.

Questor warned last week that the property sector was one of the most exposed industries to the pain of Brexit, as a vote to leave could put the brakes on demand, particularly in the booming London market.

Taylor Wimpey shares have now almost halved since May 24, when they hit 210.3p, the highest point since the 2007/8 house price bubble burst.

On Monday, the stock was also among the unhappy group that triggered the London Stock Exchange’s circuit breakers, intended to pause shares for several minutes when they become overheated.

But is the sell-off justified?


The state of the market

Taylor Wimpey had a lot going for it: a solid presence across the country, 7.5pc sales growth last year and a penchant for special dividends.

The firm makes around a third of its sales in London and the South East, and relied upon the Government’s Help to Buy scheme to subsidise mortgages for 37pc of its customers last year.

Taylor Wimpey is not the only housebuilder propped up by Help to Buy, and it’s not even the most aggressive in this slice of the market. Persimmon, for example, sold 6,110 of its 10,043 homes last year to customers with Help to Buy mortgages, while Barratt Developments reported that 31pc of its sales relied on the scheme.

However, both the international London market and first-time buyers are now particularly vulnerable to the economic lurches that Brexit brings. Analysts at Liberum said that slowing economic growth, rising long-term interest rates and political uncertainty “is like Kryptonite” for housing stocks.

Forecasters have already lowered their outlooks. The CEBR think-tank still expects prices to rise 4.5pc this year, down from a 4.9pc growth prediction before the referendum,

Even before the outcome of the vote, Berkeley Group had sent a chill through the market earlier this month by suggesting that reservations were down 20pc on uncertainty about the referendum. This warning was followed by official figures showing a 13.8pc fall in house sales in May compared to a year ago, partly because many rushed to sell in March ahead of a new 3pc stamp duty on second homes.

Supply problems

Taylor Wimpey has a land-bank of about 76,000 plots, but how quickly will it convert that potential into cash flows?

The ability to supply the housing market with more stock could also be at risk. The CEBR think-tank estimates that one in 20 construction workers come from other EU countries, who came to fill an acute skills shortage in the British building industry.

Their right to work in the UK could be limited or removed, depending on the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU, which is at least two years away. Even if their status is unchanged, the uncertainty could prompt many to leave the country for a more stable region.

Rising house prices have so far outstripped growing labour costs, which were expected to increase by 4pc this year. A crash in prices could turn this on its head.

Economic gloom

The swaps market is now pricing in a 15pc chance of UK interest rates turning negative over the course of the next year, according to Hargreaves Lansdown, signalling a period of weak economic growth and uncertainty for the housing market.

Taylor Wimpey has fortified its balance sheet to hunker down in the event of a downturn, having cut its net debt to £94.8m last year and doubled its net cash to £223.3m, even as it paid a £308m special dividend. The firm also enjoyed an operating profit margin of 20.3pc last year, meaning prices would have to take a substantial dive before it swings to a loss.

So the company seems capable of weathering economic headwinds. For now, though, the market is ill-equipped to price property stocks given so many uncertainties about supply, demand and the overall economy. Avoid.

Foxtons

£1.04 -30.5p

Questor says SELL

Foxtons’ profit warning meant the estate agent was also in the dumps on the market, losing 22.6pc and leaving the firm at its lowest ever closing price. The heady days when the stock was pushing £4 less than a year after the initial public offering in September 2013 seem like a distant memory.

Peel Hunt analysts were particularly gloomy about the firm, saying its annual profit forecast of £42m could be halved, and that even a recovery in the London market would not be enough to revive the estate agent when its competitors are eager to undercut it on commission.

The Questor column advised selling in March, after Foxton posted a 2.6pc fall in annual profits as cheaper rivals sprang up across its London heartland.

The firm has previously managed to balance falling sales with the growing lettings market, but this equation no longer works if there is a broader draining of activity from the capital city. We see no reason to take the plunge, even at the current rock-bottom price. Sell.

Housebuilders bıggest worry ıs the Banks havıng any spare to lend ınto the mother of all bubbles agaın.

If the EU negotiations on single market is undesirable, London will no more be the financial hub and the value of London's property will drop drastically.

A very good marked up to 127p at the start and now settling in the middle of the rise around 121p +5.20p

That was yesterday.......

Brexit vote wipes $130 bln off FTSE 100 in 2 days;
Housebuilders also fell sharply, with Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and Barratt Developments all down 13.8 to 19.4 percent.

That is today........

LONDON MARKET OPEN: Stocks Rebound;
Among the best performers In London's blue-chip index were housebuilders. Persimmon was up 6.6%, Taylor Wimpey up 6.2%, and Barratt Developments up 5.4%. They had been amongst the hardest hit stocks in the Brexit aftermath.

Today is just a dead cat bounce which will last for only a short while.

hlyeo

you post are worth nothing to me for start, as I think you still have plenty to learn, take your own decisions not what the papers say will be my advise.

we are here to make money and so buy cheap ( I did ) and sell high (I will )

re - London financial hub
London hub will or not be as before but TW. build houses not Property for rent on the City, and many of the houses are abroad, so as £ is lower profit will be higher.

House prices over here most likely will come down as they are staggering at the moment, but that takes time and as Redrow said today they are bullish so far and more to come.

So a slow down is OK for the business and share price, but a fall from 190p to 110p, on a couple days, is for me an opportunity not to be missed.

Bye, bye

mentor - you're right in many ways, but as always, timing is everything ...... had you known the markets were going to jump today then you would have held yesterday's position

i'm fortunate to have made a couple of shillings on the indices, but for sure I am only taking very small positions and being damned careful not to get greedy
there will be many good and many very scary times ahead

my gut feeling is that in the long term - ie within the next 2 years - an agreement between uk and eu will be brokered
for sure the eu plutocrats are shitting themselves, as well they might, for there is a very real danger of the whole enterprise imploding if there not some radical reform

mentor, your views are not worth a penny to me as well, certainly the papers have more notions than yours

Aleluya the day you wake up to reality and learn how to trade.

That is why you do not make any money ( I mean losing money ) reading papers........

,,,,,,,, and I make plenty with my own ideas that make sense

A late charge got the stock to 122p UT with 4.99M trade

for the day
122.10p +6.30p +5.44%

Hurrah! TW. has risen by 6p (really great profit) after dropping from 190p level. Wow! Great profit...

better than a kick in the nuts!

Do they say " one must have Balls of steel to buy on these markets "

Well we know a ... Hurrah, that not have even balls, mind you of steel

It's so funny, am I stopping you from buying???

mentor almost invariably trades short term and good luck to him

with regard to this particular stock, i reckon it's one of the better housebuilders - and also TEF - and do so in my sipp for the longer term
if you don't hold already (not for quick profit) then perhaps consider doing so, the timing being difficult to judge - ie there could be many bad days in the coming weeks and months

I agree with u, cynic, the rise is not substantial compared to the loss... there are still many uncertainties in the market.

Good rise if your short term trading and a good chance of this one bouncing back over the long term .Britain still has a shortage of housing despite our exit from the EU .

re - the rise is not substantial compared to the loss

You have nothing to agree, stop talking bull sh!t, - cynic is telling you to buy TEF, that I played all the time,
last time late May I come out with over 10% gain in two weeks.

stop being so touchy mentor
i hold both TEF and TW. but not for short-term trading

much as i am deeply relieved to see this sharp rally, i am wondering if it has about run its course for now

Can see some one being banned again........ bought into tw this am with a hope and a prayer.,.

Stop being so cynic, so a loser on both by a mile

not so .... my TW is still well in profit and TEF will just have to bide its time .... both are in my sipp

meanwhile have done nicely (in a modest way) from trading DAX and DOW long over the last few days
have now encashed all as i have sunshine waiting for me

Moving to a 10p gain for the day

Best of the day

TEF Telford Homes . 293.75 10.54%
TW. Taylor Wimpey 132.10 8.28%
RDW Redrow ....... 325.10 8.19%
PSN Persimmon ... 1,429.00 6.32%
BDEV Barratt Devel. 404.10 6.12%
BDEV Barratt Devel. 402.10 5.54%
CRST Crest Nicholson 359.50 4.72%

Another large trade as UT and at top price

Once again someone wants the stock or most likely more than one.

16:35:09
132.90p
7,374,197 UT

I'm in a quandary as to know what to do next. I bought two lots of this on the way down. First lot at 123 (knew it was going to go lower but couldn't keep my finger off the button). Second lot at 115.

It is my view that whilst the housing and construction sector will be held back somewhat, it doesn't result in this sort of fall.

So, I have to decide where to sell and that I'm struggling with.

The trades on all the builders suggest and tonight's UT trades suggest to me this is going higher at least in the short term. There are lots of large UT trades on lots of stocks tonight - not sure if this is buyers seeing value or shorters now getting fried.

unless you have time constraints, why do you need a limit level?

The country is still short of housing - and Builders haven't left these shores - so what's really changed? Wasn't this the MM having a laugh and shaking-the-tree? In panic the Remainers Sold - and the Leavers stood-still.

I have TW. from lower ( ~2008 ), and am not about to cash-in at these blip-depressed levels. It will come back . . . . . yield says so.... even if any Bonus is cut short-term ( because they can, etc. )

However, for some Europe-focussed businesses there might be some hostility to Orders in the next few Months . . . . but only id we let our product quality slip as any £/$ woes assist our Exports.

Where we will be depressed is in Food/Oil/Energy costs, which wholesalers will mark-up quickly so they don't get caught . . . and having a near-need we cannot argue. Expect Tesco-Shopping and their Petrol to rise maybe 10-15% ( er, but not their Profits ! ).

Have a look at "said" buys against said "sells" over last week. But consider balanced books.

If you are not short term trader, previous two posts appear sensible.

But, if timed it was a nice trade over last month.

Ok - so more large buy trades in many of the closing auctions tonight.

137.10p +4.80 (+3.63%)

Taylor Wimpey plc 95.8% Potential Upside Indicated by Deutsche Bank

Taylor Wimpey plc using EPIC/TICKER code LON:TW had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates’ with the recommendation being set at ‘BUY’ today by analysts at Deutsche Bank. Taylor Wimpey plc are listed in the Consumer Goods sector within UK Main Market. Deutsche Bank have set their target price at 261 GBX on its stock. This is indicating the analyst believes there is a potential upside of 95.8% from today’s opening price of 133.3 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 64.4 points and decreased 57.7 points respectively.

Taylor Wimpey plc LON:TW has a 50 day moving average of 185.07 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 189.06 GBX. The 52 week high for the stock is 211.9 GBX while the 52 week low for the stock is 109.44 GBX. There are currently 3,264,960,695 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 24,164,201. Market capitalisation for LON:TW is £4,272,540,538 GBP.

Taylor Wimpey plc is a national developer operating at a local level from over 24 regional businesses across the United Kingdom. The Company also has operations in Spain. Its segments include Housing United Kingdom and Housing Spain. The Housing United Kingdom segment includes North, Central and South West, and London and South East (including Central London) divisions.

This is nothing new as Deutsche has been calling TW. a BUY from the beginning of the year and they are holding a big chunk at a loss now after Brexit. They wouldn't call it a SELL, would they?

Bet you wish you had bought at the beginning of the week though hlyeo

Well, I'm not a short term dealer... I think we are still not out of the woods with the economy.

Builders are having a dead cat bounce last week.

132.20p +10p (+8.19%)

Another good day for the builders

Should be an easy run back to 140p but I'm holding on for more. I'm happy to hold for a couple of years and see it go back in the 170-210 channel and collect the dividends along the road

I agree with CC's last comment. All house builders have been over sold in my opinion. For something in the same line but a little different have a look at INL. Down over 40% - stupid with their Fin Year end being 30 June, with Trading statement soon.

Are you holding too many builders?.

I am. 8-(

Never owned any of them.

Good and bad luck.

I bought back in 2009.

Also, expect to hold for next 6-12months plus.

Dump all of them. The fırst cut ıs the least painful.

There margıns wıll erode very quıckly.

Just my take.

Here we are again a nice trading range chart

Are dividend cuts inevitable for Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey? - By Motley Fool | Mon, 11th July 2016 - 15:29

Absolute dividend policies

Until recently, Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW) and Persimmon (LSE:PSN) were two dividend growth darlings. Income investors flocked to them because of their rapidly growing dividend yields and low valuation multiples. Right now, everyone is worried that dividend cuts are inevitable.

But there's no real risk of dividend cuts in the short term. Both housebuilders have very strong cash balances and very little debt on their balance sheets. Both companies also have absolute dividend policies based on excess capital on their balance sheets rather than pegged to future earnings.

A dividend cut in the longer term may not be inevitable either. While investor demand in the commercial property sector has taken a very big hit, the residential market is quite different. Long-term fundamentals are better for the residential market because there remains a chronic housing shortage. The number of new houses being built remains well below their pre-recession highs, and that's unlikely to change any time soon.

Housebuilders can also do more to conserve cash and prioritise dividends by reducing investment in land banks, delaying new construction and cutting back on share repurchases. Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon already have very large strategic landbanks, with both companies having around six years of supply at current build rates. What's more, Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon's 20%-plus margins mean they can withstand a modest house price shock and remain very profitable.

For 2016, shares in Taylor Wimpey have a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%, while Persimmon's shares yield 7.3%.

148p +7.10p (+5.04%)

Well ahead once more after the overdone mark down

a very strong order book just now 150 v 100

Having gone well over 150p now the stock is now into the Limbo range 140 - 170p with support at 140p

Closed bargain T+4 @ 150.20

a gain of 37.20p or 32.92 % on 11 working days

my sipp is very grateful for the rally in this one :-)

amazingly high volume today (already 56m+), but suspect it's just a freaky day rather than anything of note

Interim results wed 27th July 2106.

Three bargains in bricks and mortar
By Harriet Mann | Tue, 26th July 2016 - 13:44

For a sector partially demolished by Brexit uncertainty, analysts remain confident a turn in the current cycle will not be anything like as severe as the aftermath of 2008. Downgrades this time reflect just a "modest" 10% fall in volumes and prices.

Given price targets were too optimistic ahead of the EU referendum, one analyst has decided now is a convenient time to bring sky-high expectations more in line with reality, although they still expect 40% upside and blockbuster dividend yields sector-wide.

Despite claiming a downturn would be "moderate", Deutsche Bank has slashed its 2017 cash profit estimates by 50% and pre-tax profit guidance by 60%. This risk to profit should weaken from 2018, as the sector benefits from cost-cutting and cheaper land, although pre-tax profit is still expected to fall 40% and 30% in 2018 and 2019.

"Whether this proves to be a correct assumption or not only time will tell - but it enables us to explore valuation in such a downside scenario and participate in the debate," explains analyst Glynis Johnson.

Deutsche Bank still reckons dividends can be maintained, confident the sector yields an attractive 5.2%. Even with reduced forecasts, Taylor Wimpey (TW.) leads the way with a 9% yield thanks to its special dividend commitment.

"However, for many of those with dividend policies based on P&L pay-out ratios, our forecasts suggest significantly excess cash accumulation, which could provide scope for significant higher returns to shareholders, with Barratt (BDEV) proving a strong example, with net cash in FY 2018 equivalent to a 16% yield," adds Johnson.

Identified as a driver of economic growth, government policy has prioritised housebuilding since 2007, with plans to build one million new homes from 2015-2020 reiterated post- referendum.

This commitment provides serious upside to the sector after decades of chronic undersupply. There's a chance the Help to Buy equity loan scheme could also be increased to 30%, too, which Johnson reckons will provide meaningful support to volumes.

Value opportunities

There is still opportunity to capture value in the sector, however. Collapsing after the referendum 'Leave' result, the housebuilders now trade on a price/net asset value (NAV) ratio of 1.4 times, although there is significant range within the sector - from 1-2.1 times. After downgrades, return on equity is expected to trough at 15% in 2017, indicating a 50% premium to cost of capital.

"We believe this suggests there remains significant value in the sector, particularly for those trading in the lower ranges of the peer group. Our pick in this category is Bovis (BVS)," says Johnson.

The analyst has her eye on the three big housebuilders she thinks offer good scope for return.

Barratt Developments

Reducing their target price by 13%, Johnson's team now reckon Barratt is worth 575p, which offers 40% upside to its current 410p price. It's yielding 7%, too.

Bovis Homes

Suffering a double-digit target price downgrade, Bovis could still be worth 55% more at 1,190p and there's a 5% yield for 2016.

Taylor Wimpey

Now worth 147p, Taylor Wimpey has 48% potential upside with its new 218p target price and offers with a 7.4% prospective yield, which grows to a sector-leading 9.1% in 2017 and 10% in 2018.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/341463/three-bargains-bricks-and-mortar

NICE - Today

Canaccord Genuity Buy 153.95 140.00 140.00 Retains

Peel Hunt Hold 153.95 215.00 215.00 Reiterates

Taylor Wimpey keeps building profits - By Harriet Mann | Wed, 27th July 2016 - 14:27

Taylor Wimpey housebuilder profits increase good trading post Brexit earnings More than a month has passed since the UK decided to leave the European Union and, despite the rhetoric of uncertainty, lots of us are still buying Taylor Wimpey (TW.) homes. The group is more profitable than this time last year, its new £450 million dividend scheme is safe, and the share price continues to make a comeback, too.
Despite macro uncertainty, demand for homes and the government's Help to Buy scheme have underpinned the housing market since the referendum. There was a brief blip in the average cancellation rate immediately following the Brexit vote, although this is back in line with low levels, and the wider London market remains robust, says Taylor Wimpey.

"One month on from the EU referendum, current trading remains in line with normal seasonal patterns. Customer interest continues to be high, with a good level of visitors," said chief executive Pete Redfern.

"Whilst it is still too early to assess what the longer-term impact from the referendum result on the housing market may be, we are encouraged by the first month's trading and by continued competitive lending from the mortgage providers as well as the positive commentary from government and policymakers."



Taylor Wimpey built over 6,000 new homes in the six months to 3 July and its order book has swollen to over £2.2 billion, with 90% of its properties for 2016 already sold. Its homes sold for an average £238,000, 5.8% higher than this time last year, driving a 9.1% increase in revenue to £1.5 billion and 12% increase in pre-tax profit to £266.6 million. Earnings per share (EPS) rose 14% to 6.6p.

Taking the total payout to around 10.91p per share this year (£356 million), investors will get a 0.53p interim dividend in October. And, crucially, the company said it remained "fully committed" to the dividend policy announced in May.

Shareholders are promised an enhanced ordinary dividend in 2017, representing 5% of group net assets and at least £150 million each year through the cycle. They'll also get a special dividend of £300 million, or about 9.2p a share, next July.

Tangible net asset value per (TNAV) share rose 7.8% to 88.5p in the half-year to 3 July and net cash jumped by a third to £116.7 million. Return on net operating assets has increased by 2 percentage points to 25.2%.



Taylor Wimpey stuck within a solid trading channel for the 12 months before June's referendum, after which the housebuilder collapsed to a two-year low of 109p. Leaping 5% to 153p Wednesday, the shares have now recovered by 40% and are firmly above the significant 38% Fibonacci retracement level from its pre-referendum high.

In a research note yesterday, Deutsche bank analyst Glynis Johnson slashed price targets across the sector. However, she still thinks Taylor Wimpey will be worth 218p target price and offers a 7.4% prospective yield.

Is the the talk down of the housing since the Brexit is having an impact on the morgage approvals? ........


UK mortgage approvals slip in June

UK mortgage approvals slipped to their lowest level since May in 2015, with just 64,766 approved in June,
from 66,722 in May. The market had expected 65,650 approvals.

Meantime, M4 Money supply climbed to 8% on a 3-month annualised basis.

arguably, though that is an easy excuse
FOXT's lousy figures and comment show a deeper malaise i fear
nevertheless, the country still needs an awful lot more housing and TW (in particular) offers a really good yield

Bought into these this morning..Far to cheap with a very good Divi..

Is this industry champion too cheap to ignore? - By Motley Fool | Mon, 8th August 2016 - 09:34

Shares in Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW) crashed by more than 40% on the day after the Brexit vote, and while the shares have regained some of their losses over the past month, it still looks as if the company is undervalued compared to both its peers and the wider market.

Indeed, Taylor's shares currently trade at a forward P/E of 8.9. According to current City estimates the company's earnings per share are set to grow by 14% this year, indicating that the shares trade at a PEG ratio of 0.6. A PEG ratio of less than one implies that the shares offer growth at a reasonable price. Further, the wider FTSE 100 currently trades at a P/E ratio of 38.67 so compared to the UK's leading index, shares in Taylor look exceptionally cheap.

An attractive long-term investment

Even after Brexit Taylor remains an extremely attractive investment. The UK is facing a structural housing shortage and this deficit won't disappear following the country's decision to leave the EU.

The country needs hundreds of thousands of new houses every year, and Taylor is one of the few large homebuilders that can be relied on to contribute significantly to this growth. The Bank of England's decision to ease credit conditions further last week, lowering interest rates and increasing the volume of funds available for lending by banks, should only increase the demand for new homes.

In a trading statement published on 27 July, Taylor's management announced that one month after the EU referendum, trading conditions remained in line with normal seasonal patterns. In other words, it seems as if Taylor's sales are unlikely to be impacted by Brexit in the near term. For the first half of 2016 pre-tax profit increased 12.1%.

So overall, shares in Taylor look undervalued at current levels, and the company's trading performance is still going strong.

House prices pause for breath post-Brexit, say surveyors

The UK housing market paused for breath after the Brexit vote, but could take off again over the next 12 months, a poll of surveyors suggests.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) survey showed house price rises slowed significantly in the three months to the end of July.
The surveyors said new buyer enquiries, home sales and new instructions all fell over the period.
The number reporting price increases dropped to its lowest in three years.
They outnumbered those seeing price falls by 5%, compared to 15% in June.
And the survey found prices had fallen outright in London, East Anglia, the North of England and the West Midlands.

'Rebound'
However, the Rics survey suggests that house price inflation could resume its upward path within a year.
A month ago - in the wake of the EU vote - surveyors were evenly divided about whether prices would rise or fall over the next 12 months.
Now a clear majority of them - 23% - expect prices to go up.
However, any such growth is likely to be modest compared to 2015, or the start of 2016, when prices were rising by up to 10% a year.

"It is not altogether surprising that near term activity measures remain relatively flat," said Rics chief economist Simon Rubinsohn.
"However, the rebound in the key twelve month indicators in the July survey suggests that confidence remains more resilient than might have been anticipated."

Inflation
Most surveyors responded to the questionnaire before the news came through last week that the Bank of England was cutting base rates by 0.25%.
Cheaper mortgages - if they happen on a significant scale - are likely to boost house prices.

The Halifax said last week that it was still too early to say how the Brexit vote would affect values.
However, its figures show that prices fell during the month of July by 1%.
Conversely, the Nationwide Building Society said prices rose by 0.5% during the month.
Annual house price inflation is running at 8.4% according to the Halifax, and 5.2% according to the Nationwide.

looking at the simpleton's chart below, it will be seen that for the last few sp has moved in a very narrow (and narrowing) channel between 25+50 dma
sooner or later this will be broken, and my guess would be to the north as houses are still desperately needed - as mentioned by many sources

Was hoping that momentum and volume trading would close the gap! Not to be.....yet.

It is interesting. Lately the pattern has been mostly price falls in the morning and then comes back in the afternoon. I take this as a buy the dips mentality which I see as excellent support for a move higher at some later stage

Agree CC, very similar to how the MGGT chart looked from the lows. Gaps always seem to be filled eventually.

House Prices

The average asking price for a house in the UK slipped 1.2% on month in August, property tracking
website Rightmove said on Monday - coming in at GBP304,222. That follows the 0.9% decline in July.

On a yearly basis, house prices advanced 4.1%, slowing from 4.5% in the previous month.
"Many prospective buyers take a summer break from home-hunting, and those who come to market at
this quieter time of year tend to price more aggressively," Rightmove Director Miles Shipside said.

Is it time to buy the housebuilders’ shares? - By Motley Fool | Mon, 22nd August 2016 - 13:47

Shares of UK-focused housebuilders such as Persimmon (LSE:PSN), Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW) and Bovis Homes Group (LSE:BVS) continue their recovery today after falling earlier in the year.

Is this a bounce you should hop aboard or is more caution warranted?

Declining earnings

I'm cautious on the housebuilders and won't be rushing to buy their shares.

Looking back to the aftermath of the financial crisis, the housebuilders have travelled a long way in terms of rebuilding and growing their profits and in the way their share prices recovered from the depths that saw them trade with penny share status.

However, the halcyon days of double-digit growth in earnings year after year appear to be over -- at least for this wider economic cycle. City analysts following these three firms predict declines in earnings per share for 2017, Persimmon's to fall by 9%, Taylor Wimpey's by 6%, and Bovis Homes' by 6%.

The big advances as earnings recovered look done and forward growth seems set to become much harder for the housebuilders to achieve. Perhaps we're already seeing peak earnings for the sector in this wider macroeconomic cycle, despite a favourable interest rate environment and an ongoing need for further housing in Britain.

Downside risk

Affordability will likely act as a brake on demand at some point. House prices won't go up forever and people can't buy houses if they can't afford them, even if they need somewhere to live. Perhaps the ramifications of the process of Britain leaving the European Union will upset the balance of variables that has hitherto kept property prices rising. If it does, and property prices start to ease in a significant way, I can't see such a situation doing the housebuilding firms' profits and share prices any good whatsoever.

I think it's dangerous to flirt with out-and-out cyclical businesses after a long period of robust profits. When profits and share prices are elevated, as now, the risk to the downside for investors is at its most acute and the upside potential at its most limited. The stock market as a whole isn't as stupid as we might sometimes think. The market figured out cyclicality long ago and tries to mark down the valuations of cyclical firms as their profits rise in anticipation of the next cyclical down-leg.

Such valuation-compression will likely drag on investor total returns from here, so is it really worth flirting with the unknown location of the next cyclical plunge that could take away years of dividend gains in capital losses? I don't think so, especially when there are so many other less cyclical investment opportunities available on the London stock market paying more reliable dividends than the housebuilding companies right now.

The time to invest in uber-cyclical housebuilding firms is when their profits have vanished and their share prices are under the floorboards, such as in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. Right now, their businesses look far too healthy, so I'm avoiding them.

I'm staying long and waiting for the share price to get back in the 170 to 205 channel.

I think the dividend yield supports the price regardless of the economic and political dynamics.

Taylor Wimpey is steadily going down again. Now 140p.

Good stock to trade ,been in and out the last few weeks .

The rot has not even set in yet on Construction sector. Property prices are totally out of kilter with economic reality. Margins will be squeezed.

Your right there Claret ,,
(Property prices are totally out of kilter with economic reality),

however we are short of housing , the problem could be that it's becoming too expensive and at some point sales will slow.

despite your gloom, residential interest has perked up noticeably within the last month or so
my contacts in kent tell me houses at the lower end - ie say £230/250k - are being snapped up and elsewhere, properties at £1m+ are also getting interest

obviously location is everything (a true truism!) but a weak £ will also excite overseas investors

I have nowt against any of House builders per se. They have had decent hand thrown their way with open borders. IR screwed to the floor. Plus Govt help to buy. Knowing when to take profits is always the difficult one. We all know that who take aim on this site.

i have no trading positions in this sector, and long(er) term criteria are very different

Been a great trading stock over the last month or so.....

true jimmy...all that is to be done is buy on the dips and sell on the highs :-/

That's what i have been doing optomistic , just have not been greedy .

Taylor Wimpey, up 2.6%, Barratt Developments, up 2.6%, Persimmon, up 2.1%. Housebuilders were higher as the UK Department for Communities & Local Government said councils in England will be offered up to GBP18.0 million in new funding to speed up the construction of up to 8,000 homes on large developments.

The 'capacity fund' is designed to tackle planning issues that can hold up projects. "We want to turbo-charge house building on large sites to get the homes built in the places people want to live, so that this country works for everyone, not just the privileged few," Housing Minister Gavin Barwell said.

Good of the housing minister to make such a statement, perhaps he ought to have added...if it is within their means.

Taylor Wimpey confirms strong H2 trading

StockMarketWire.com

Taylor Wimpey said H2 trading into the autumn selling season has been strong, with good levels of customer confidence and demand underpinned by a wide range of mortgage products.

"While there remains some uncertainty following the UK's vote to leave the European Union, we are encouraged to see that the housing market has remained robust and trading has remained resilient," said CEO Pete Redfern.

"We have a strong order book position for 2016 and going into 2017, and we will maintain our focus on delivering our medium term targets.

"Looking ahead, we continue to implement our disciplined strategy which ensures that we are well placed to perform well through all market conditions and deliver enhanced value through the cycle."

OUTLOOK

Whilst the implications following the EU Referendum are still unclear, the UK housing market has remained resilient, with long term fundamentals underpinned by strong demand, the company said.

"Looking ahead, we remain confident that our business model and strategy focused on managing the business through the cycle positions us to perform well through all market conditions.

"We continue to focus on delivering our enhanced medium term financial and quality objectives, embedding our customer service processes and driving improvement in operational discipline.

"We expect to deliver an improvement in operating profit margin in 2016 (FY 2015: 20.3%), as previously guided, and a return on net operating assets** of around 30%. We remain committed to the announced £450 million total dividend payment to shareholders in 2017."

.

Hopefully broken that downtrend

14 Nov Peel Hunt Hold 151.60 215.00 215.00 Reiterates

UK housebuilders find lenders more cautious after Brexit vote - survey - By Esha Vaish

Nov 18 (Reuters) - UK housebuilders, particularly those operating in central London, are finding lenders are giving out less finance for new projects since Britain's vote to leave the European Union, according to a report by property consultant Knight Frank.

Heightened caution among lenders is causing many to scrutinise deals for longer and reduce the amount of their lending by 5-10 percent of the project cost, Peter Macallan, head of structured development finance at property consultant Knight Frank told Reuters.

"So what that means is that effectively developers are having to put more cash equity into the deals upfront, giving lenders a bit more comfort in an uncertain market with Brexit, the U.S. election and what demand for UK housing stock is going to look like in 3-5 years," Macallan said.

The Residential Development Finance Report 2016/17 by Knight Frank, which surveyed the industry's 50 major operators, said over a quarter of respondents expected the loan-to-value on development projects to fall.

The result could be that builders offer bigger discounts to cash buyers to lure landlords and overseas buyers that might have limited purchases due to Brexit uncertainty and an increase in tax on buy-to-let and second homes.

UK property was the hardest hit sector immediately after the Brexit vote, but new homes demand in most of Britain, including outer London, has returned after an initial dip, according to builders and surveys.

Central London though remains a weak spot, with property prices forecast to fall and housebuilder Barratt having cut prices of some of its expensive homes. The pace of building in this region has already slowed.

"There are a number of developers that have recognised the (change in sentiment) and are accepting a fairly large discount to the original asking prices now," said Sebastian Wallis, Knight Frank's head of residential development valuations.

The report said big names were especially shying away from central London developments, with about 60 percent of lenders now operating in the area, down from 78 percent reported in its 2015 survey.

Lenders were most keen on projects valued at 600-750 pounds per square foot, whereas demand for projects over 1,000 pounds per square foot had reduced, Wallis said.

Macallan said lenders were more interested in outer London boroughs where demand from first-time buyers remained strong.

somewhat dependent on what the autumn statement comes up with, TW. could be serious beneficiary

i also like TEF and BVS ..... and definitely RMV should not be forgotten

Question ?
What would be the effect of interest rate rises on the s p of house builders. I guess that house prices would fall, but become more affordable to others.

but what chance of a rise in interest rates even within next 12 months?

An article in the Telegraph a day or two back suggested that a rise in rates in the U. S. is on the cards could start the ball rolling over here.

personally, i don't think the one has anything to do with the other, though i agree that in normal circumstances it would

Interest rates for savers are still dropping, which presumably implies the banks are not expecting a BoE rate hike any time soon? I have just been notified that Jan 2017 interest rates on my savings accounts will drop by approx a quarter of 1%. Good for borrowers, not for savers!

Down in the low 140's i'll have another go .

Liberum downgrades Barratt to 'sell' as it looks at UK housebuilders

(ShareCast News) - Liberum downgraded Barratt Developments to 'sell' as it took a look at the UK housebuilding sector.

The brokerage said it sees long-term value in some housebuilders as the valuation looks appealing and long-term fundamentals remain favourable.

It noted government support for the sector in the form of a more helpful planning system and the help to buy scheme.

In addition, it said the land market is very benign, and housebuilders are much more disciplined since the 2008 crisis, running more prudent balance sheets.

However, it noted near-term risks to share price performance such as slowing growth impacting house prices, which could put pressure on estimates and the threat of reflation without wage growth.

Liberum cut Barratt Developments to 'sell' from 'hold' as it sees relatively higher risks in its lower margins compared to peers, as well as it shorter landbank which could limit the sustainability of dividend payouts.

The brokerage's preferred stocks are buy-rated Bellway, Berkeley, Gleeson and Persimmon.

It highlighted Bellway's compelling valuation and said volume growth should be sustained, protecting profits if prices do fall a little as expected.

Liberum maintained its 'buy' on Berkeley in spite of the general caution around London, as the company has secured significant forward sales to protect prices and volumes and has successfully added value to sites.

As far as Gleeson is concerned, it said the unique business model gives it industry leading margins and excellent growth prospects with limited competition.

Liberum said it likes Persimmon for its high dividend at low risk. In addition, it expressed confidence that the company will achieve the payments pledged because of management's incentive scheme.

The brokerage kept Bovis, Redrow and Taylor Wimpey at 'hold'.

While Bovis looks cheap, Liberum has resisted the temptation to turn more bullish on the shares as its margin profile makes earnings most geared to downside risk.

As far Redrow is concerned, it said "risk aversion among investors may now limit appetite for investing in a housebuilder with a degree (even though comfortable) of debt".

Liberum said it may be exercising too much caution leaving Taylor Wimpey at hold, especially given the high level of dividend expected.

Canaccord Genuity Buy 151.80 167.00 180.00 Retains

Sector still unloved despite today's rising house price news. I will be looking for a dip to collect some more

Chris you should have no trouble finding a dip. lol
2517

CC is Phil, not me dc, but thanks for asking :0)

Rising H-price isn't good for business, IMHO. It means fewer sales.
The major HB's are tied up with Regulation + Planning - and "traditional" methods of construction . . . We in UK don't appear to be interested in new ideas - this may be "Safe as houses" attitude; which is good for individuals, but tends to make whole streets look-alikes.
Swathes of demolition by Prescot/Labour was flawed because they didn't start rebuilding. Many Northern Cities suffered this.... where did these folks go, I wonder?
That TW. is doing OK is about all we can expect in today's share market. I hold a few from earlier, so only a major dip would be worrying.

JP Morgan's 23 UK share tips for 2017 - By Lee Wild | Thu, 22nd December 2016 - 11:10

There's lots to worry about in 2017, not least new US president Donald Trump and potential problems for established politicians in elections across Europe. However, analysts at JP Morgan remain optimistic, and have named their favourite UK equities for 2017.

"We think that equities have a window of opportunity to perform over the next quarters, as the initial benefits of reflation are priced in," says JPM. "We advise a constructive stance on stocks for 2017."

Three key drivers of the business cycle are "looking better", it says. All three were bearish a year ago, but the yield curve is steepening again, credit conditions are improving and corporate tax cuts and repatriation of international cash should, at least, provide an earnings boost to US companies.

Inflows of cash could also return to equities, thinks JPM.

"Equities are a real asset class, which typically benefits from inflation picking up, given better corporate pricing power and higher revenues," the broker explains. Equities typically post their best returns in the low positive inflation backdrop.

"We see this period as having similarities to 1988, or 1999, the past episodes which followed big mid-cycle selloffs in oil price. The key risks to our constructive equity call are the prospect of more aggressive bond repricing if the Fed falls behind the curve, Euro politics, liquidity squeeze in emerging markets given stronger US dollar, and of eventual recessionary profit rollover, given that US is still in what is a late cycle."

For the UK specifically, JPM recently downgraded its view in the fourth quarter from 'overweight' to 'neutral'. It's now moved to 'underweight' as it believes benefits from the weak pound are largely priced in. Domestic activity is also expected to slow materially next year due to Brexit uncertainty.

What's more, UK shares have already seen significant earnings upgrades, and profits are now expected to grow by 19% in 2017.

"Most of this is due to commodities, but no sector, including domestic ones, is projected to have down earnings," explains JPM. "This might prove to be too optimistic if the economy weakens and the uncertainty over Brexit negotiations increases."

JPM worries about a squeeze on consumer purchasing power in 2017 and that the real fallout from Brexit is yet to come. It also points out that the UK is packed with high-yielding defensives, and it may underperform against a backdrop of rising yields.

However, the broker still has 23 companies it thinks are worth buying for 2017. It's also revealed its 16 least preferred stocks.

Always Good to read experts . . . but where were they BEFORE the 2007-8 crash occurred?
I posted this on Michelmesh, but it may apply here too
....any thoughts?
FWIW I bt when sp was abt. 40p -so my Yield's good ( well NOT that good! )...

...here it is....
. . . . . . the UK-Gov is to build (2017 with Chinese help!) five factories to make "Kit-homes" - I'm guessing the finish won't be real-bricks, rather a sand-plastered, or grit exterior, with weatherboarding to break large swathes of flat areas.
=So-called Garden Villages.
Unless TW. is involved, I can see the profits hit as conventional houses remain unsold, while Buyers look at their Options . . . waiting 6-months might mean joining a New Village-community and having enough dosh for that new car.
Time will tell if such houses withstand the British Weather ( a good reason for Traditional )- but kit-build should improve quality and cut-costs . . . as well as Building-time ( which is money!).
Anyone see any of these 2017 kit-houses?

no reason why kit-built wood-frame houses should not last well
it's not exactly new technology

4 Jan: Deutsche raises its TP from 218p to 239p.

hangon - MarCity (MAR) were into that exact market, prefabricating sections of a house and then assembling on site. Although they still exist as a company, somehow they got the sums wrong and hit financial troubles.

Trading statement for the year ended 31 December 2016

Taylor Wimpey is issuing the following update on trading ahead of its full year results for the year ended 31 December 2016, which will be announced on 28 February 2017.

Overview
Pete Redfern, Chief Executive, commented:

"We are pleased to report good progress in 2016, with an increase in housing completions and robust trading despite wider macroeconomic uncertainty. In a market characterised by solid fundamentals, we ended the year with a strong forward order book and made good progress against our enhanced medium term targets. We expect to deliver full year profitability at the upper end of market consensus†. Looking ahead, we remain confident that our disciplined strategy will enable us to continue to deliver value over the long term."

UK current trading
Against the backdrop of a stable housing market in 2016, we continued to see good demand and solid trading into the second half of the year, despite wider macroeconomic uncertainty. Customers continue to benefit from a wide range of mortgage products and low interest rates with customer confidence remaining robust. We have continued to make good progress towards each of our enhanced medium term targets during 2016.

In 2016 total home completions increased by 4% to 13,881, including our share of joint venture completions (2015: 13,341). During 2016 we delivered 2,663 affordable homes (2015: 2,509), equating to 19% of total completions (2015: 19%). Our net private reservation rate for 2016 was 0.72 homes per outlet per week (2015: 0.73). Cancellation rates remained low at 13% (2015: 12%). The mix impact of better quality locations continued to have a positive impact with average selling prices on private completions increasing by 13% to £286k (2015: £254k). Our overall average selling price increased by 11% to £255k (2015: £230k).

We ended 2016 with a year end order book valued at £1,682 million as at 31 December 2016 (31 December 2015: £1,779 million), excluding joint ventures, with a small fall in the average selling price largely due to a number of high value Central London completions in December 2016. This order book represents 7,567 homes (31 December 2015: 7,484 homes). We enter 2017 with 285 outlets (31 December 2015: 297).

Land portfolio and planning
The short term land market continued to be positive throughout 2016. As planned, we operated at broadly replacement levels.

As at the end of December 2016, our short term landbank stood at c.76k plots (2015: c.76k plots), having successfully converted over 9k plots from the strategic pipeline into the short term landbank (2015: c.9k). Looking ahead, we remain mindful of the wider macroeconomic uncertainty created by the outcome of the EU Referendum. In line with our disciplined strategy and with the benefit of a long landbank and underpin of strategic pipeline, we will continue to be selective in further land investment.

Spain current trading
The Spanish market continued to be positive. We completed 304 homes in 2016 (2015: 251) at an average selling price of €358k (2015: €315k). The total order book as at 31 December 2016 stood at 293 homes (31 December 2015: 270 homes).

We expect to report a significantly improved operating profit* for the Spanish business in 2016 (2015: £10.0 million operating profit*).

Group financial position
In 2016, the first year of operating towards our enhanced medium term targets, the Group expects to report an improved operating profit* margin of c.20.8% (2015: 20.3%) and a return on net operating assets** of over 30% (2015: 27.1%).

We ended the year in a strong position with net cash of c.£365 million (31 December 2015: £223.3 million net cash), due to the strength in underlying trading and after the payment of £355.9 million of dividends to shareholders in 2016 (2015: £308.4 million).

We remain confident in our ability to pay significant dividends through the cycle, and are focused on our medium term target for dividends which is to pay a total of £1.3 billion of dividends in cash to shareholders over the period 2016-2018.

Outlook
We start the year in an excellent financial and operational position with significant embedded value in our short term landbank and strategic pipeline. We expect to demonstrate further progress throughout 2017 against all of our medium term targets, delivering increased returns for our shareholders and focusing on areas of the operational business where we can add value, including driving further improvements in our customer service processes and product quality.

Peel Hunt Buy 174.00 210.00 210.00 Retains

Shore Capital Hold 174.00 - - Reiterates

Liberum Capital Hold 174.00 150.00 150.00 Reiterates

Beaufort Securities Buy 171.15 - - Retains

Deutsche Bank Buy 171.15 239.00 244.00 Reiterates

I prefer the latter TP.

StockMarketWire.com

House builder Taylor Wimpey hiked its FY pretax profit to �732.9m, from �603.2m, in what it said was an excellent performance against a backdrop of political and economic uncertainty.

Revenue was �3.7bn, from �3.1bn.

The company said it had made a very good start to 2017 and was encouraged by robust trading and levels of demand. The UK housing market fundamentals remain good with strong customer confidence in core geographies.

"The market is underpinned by a competitive mortgage market and low interest rates. Customer interest remains high, with website visits solid and customers continuing to register interest in forthcoming developments and progress their home purchase plans," said Taylor Wimpey.

"Whilst the wider London market remains robust, prime central London is softer, as previously highlighted, however, house prices are stable, and there are good levels of underlying demand."

The net private sales rate for the year to date (w/e 19 February 2017) has increased to a very strong 0.91 (2016 equivalent period: 0.77).

Taylor Wimpey said it was continuing to focus on building a strong order book for the future. As at Feb. 19, it was about 49% forward sold for private completions for 2017, with a total order book value of �1.98bn, excluding joint ventures.

"This order book represents 8,573 homes (2016 equivalent period: 8,409). 58% of Central London private completions for 2017 are forward sold, as at 19 February 2017 (2016 equivalent period: 76%)," it said, adding it welcomed the measures set out in the Housing White Paper.

"We expect underlying build cost increases during 2017 to be at a similar level to 2016, at around 3-4%."

Taylor Wimpey said the early signs of stability and resilience of the market following the EU referendum, which were encouraging, continued and it believed the risk of material impact from this in the short term has significantly reduced.

"In line with our strategy, we will continue to closely monitor market risks, particularly around long term mortgage cost. However we believe that a cautiously regulated market and low interest rate environment is likely to prolong the period of stability that we are seeing in the UK housing market."





Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

Manuel,

Interesting article recalling what you posted some weeks ago.

"Builders turn to bolt-together homes in Brexit Britain"

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-construction-insight-idUKKBN16G1DC?feedType=nl&feedName=ukdailyinvestor&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=UK%20Technology%20Roundup%202017-03-09&utm_term=UK%20Technology%20Roundup



-=-=

I was thinking of reducing my hold of TW..

forgotten who that chap was who kept poo-pooing me about prefabs and housing from shipping containers etc
perhaps he's keeping his head below the parapet!

What accounts for the SP drop over last few days.

Is it :

1) x-div (9.2p Special Div)?
2) slow down in house prices?
3) election jitters?
4) or am I missing something?

By StockMarketWire | Wed, 31st May 2017 - 09:20
Deutsche Bank today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Taylor Wimpey PLC (LON:TW.) and raised its price target to 243p (from 241p).

SP drop due to a combination of the first 3, as for No 4 you are very short-sighted because you can't see past Corbyn.

I'd say principally 1 and 2. Often prices are driven up prior to a good divi and then tails off in the days/weeks after.

As my holding was bought at 26p many moons ago I'm not massively worried. :)

Thanks,

I have a lot too many of them.

-=--=-=

George,

May not be able to see past Corbyn, but can see through Mother Theresa.

Election jitters. Looking at my portfolio I have a variety of stuff where it's falling on low volume for no particular reason.

Low volume indicates people cutting risk and other sitting on sidelines waiting.

Construction figures good late last week
Manufacturing figures good today
Exchange rate going in correct direction

It's all about de-risking before the election I guess

My monitor has tlw followed by tw.

They seem to be falling together !

Is that your monitor or TLW.

Uggh,

I am holding. Hope I don't regret doing so.

Actually tempted to buy a few more. But. But. But.

We know it for some time now ......

UK construction growth drops to 11-month low -PMI

LONDON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Growth in Britain's construction industry tumbled to an 11-month low in July, as a lacklustre outlook for the economy and heightened political uncertainty deterred new orders, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index PMI) fell to 51.9 from 54.8 in June, below all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists that had pointed to a reading of 54.5.

The survey is another mixed signal for Bank of England policymakers meeting this week to set interest rates. A sister survey on Tuesday had shown British manufacturing growth improved last month thanks to an upturn in exports.

But Wednesday's PMI for construction, which accounts for around 6 percent of British economic output, showed a sector struggling to maintain momentum.

"The combination of weaker order books and sharply rising construction costs provides a concern that an extended soft patch for the construction sector may be on the horizon," said Tim Moore, senior economist at survey compiler IHS Markit.

Wednesday's PMI showed new business volumes declined for the first time since August 2016, hurt by a slowdown in the commercial construction sector.

Last week the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said demand to rent British commercial property had fallen to a five-year low.

Growth in the housebuilding sector also cooled, reflecting other signs of a slowdown in the housing market, according to the PMI. On Monday, the Bank of England said mortgage approvals fell to a nine-month low in June.

The waning growth in activity took its toll on construction firms' confidence about the future, which fell to its lowest level in a year, IHS Markit said.

The Federation of Master Builders said on Monday that the fall in the sterling exchange rate was causing prices of materials to soar, squeezing margins for a third of small builders and forcing nearly a quarter to raise prices.

More important for BoE officials will be Thursday's PMI for the services industry, which accounts for about 80 percent of British economic output.

- Detailed PMI data are only available under licence from Markit and customers need to apply to Markit for a licence.

It's no surprise that the house-building sector is cooling mentor, when prospective first-time buyers are excluded from the market due to pricing pressures and the need for a sizable deposit.

Not to mention the low wages and conditions.. buy a house in this Country at the moment?.. you must be joking.

for all that, there remains huge pressure to build houses everywhere, even gobbling up more and more greenbelt

under current legislation, any new development has to include a specified proportion of "starter homes" whatever that may mean ...... certainly one of the smart developments in RBK&C were less than thrilled to find a bunch of grenfell tower "homeless" taking up residence in part of their block (hard cheese!)

under current legislation, any new development has to include a specified proportion of "starter homes" whatever that may mean

It means that "starter homes" usually means ending up nothing like affordable homes in practise.

oh do stop being a bitter and twisted little twerp

Starter home kit.

Beaufort Securities Buy 191.75 220.00 220.00 Retains

cynic - 02 Aug 2017 13:27 - 312 of 314

oh do stop being a bitter and twisted little twerp

Nothing to do with bitter or twisted.. and if there's a twerp around here it certainly isn't me.

re - bitter and twisted little twerp ... it certainly isn't me.

on whose eyes?

Irrelevant.

Those holding get a surprise, but is not positive, it happens from time to time, but it was expected by some,
but not by the twisted ones.........

Rumoured Help to Buy scheme review triggers sell-off in housebuilding sector

Housebuilding stocks struggled after broker Liberum warned if the Help to Buy scheme was removed after a rumoured
government review, it could impact margins and sales rates across the whole sector.

Barratt Developments (BDEV) led the pack lower with a 5.3% decline to 585p. Peers Taylor Wimpey (TW.) and
Persimmon (PSN) fell 4.8% and 5.5% to 185.5p and £24.21, respectively.

Also some mutters that Credit Suisse have "prematurely" downgraded the sector whatever that means

Whoever put that chart at the top could had made a better job and do a smaller size, it will help to see the price
of the time in relation for the last few days

Manuel,

Consider policies in home/house ownership as a consolidation of wealth in a smaller and smaller section of the population.

Also, consider the effects of doing so.

Consider the change of expectancies and goals.

Mentor - the chart looks fine on my 23" screen!

fred - why do i need to philosophise? ....... i see you're happy to try to make money from these (and other) shares, and so am i ...... certainly makes you on of the champagne socialists

house ownership, like worthless uni education (attendance!), is deemed a holy grail, but houses will still be needed whether for end-users to own or to rent

skinny

re - chart

consider the size is 1000 and most computers will show as Max 900 MAM allows 920 but the top of MAM from home to help is only 900.

Others can say if they can see it all or have to scroll just a bit more to see the end of the chart

Ok - changed to 900.

DOWNNNNNNN ............. UPPPPPPPPP

UK govt says incorrect to infer "Help to Buy" review means cancellation
Fri, 4th Aug 2017 10:30

LONDON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The British government said that it was incorrect to infer that its 'Help to Buy' scheme, aimed at boosting home ownership, would be cancelled after a review of the programme.

Shares of UK homebuilders slumped on Friday after trade publication Property Week said the scheme could be wound up early, citing a review into the programme to be conducted by the London School of Economics.

"The department regularly reviews the Help to Buy Equity Loan Scheme, with the last review taking place in 2015," a spokesman from the Department for Communities and Local Government said. "To infer from this that the Help to Buy Equity Loan scheme will be cancelled is simply incorrect."

.

well picked up mentor, though builders' shares have not exactly rebounded sharply

Are house prices due for a correction?
at 7.6 times earnings back at last March, not many can afford those prices
Expensive house builders are the ones will suffer most.....

From the Guardian- March 2017

Median price paid for a home leapt 259% between 1997 and 2016 while earnings rose only 68%, say ONS affordability data
In 1997, house prices were on average about 3.6 times workers’ annual gross full-time earnings.
In 1997, house prices were on average about 3.6 times workers’ annual gross full-time earnings.

Rising house prices now stand at an average 7.6 times the average annual salary, more than double the figure for 20 years ago, according to official figures.

However, the new headline figure disguises dramatic regional variations. In the affluent London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, house prices are typically 38.5 times greater than annual earnings, but, 330 miles to the north-west, prices in Copeland, Cumbria, which includes the port of Whitehaven, are typically 2.8 times the average salary.

The new figures for housing affordability in England and Wales between 1997 and 2016 have been issued by the Office for National Statistics. They said the median price paid for a home leapt by 259% over this period, while median individual annual earnings could only manage a 68% rise.

The ONS said housing affordability “has worsened in all local authority districts”. In 1997, house prices were on average about 3.6 times workers’ annual gross full-time earnings.

In 2016, Kensington and Chelsea was the least affordable area to buy a property in England and Wales. The ratio of house prices to annual income stood at 38.5 times average annual salary – more than three times the figure in 1997, when it was 11.8 times earnings. In January this year a detached house in the borough sold for £24.2m, according to the Land Registry.

Copeland, meanwhile, has been officially named “the most affordable” local authority area in England and Wales. A two-bed terraced property in Whitehaven can be picked up for £45,000 or so, according to the property website Rightmove.

Of the 10 least affordable local authorities, seven were in London. For example, in 1999, an employee in the borough of Camden could expect to pay 7.7 times their annual salary on buying a property, whereas in 2016 this had leapt to an average 19.6 times their annual earnings.

Other areas saw much smaller increases over the same period. In Hyndburn in Lancashire, the equivalent figure has risen from 2.6 times to 4.1 times earnings.

UK house price growth weakest in more than four years -Halifax - Mon, 7th Aug 2017 10:06

LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - British house prices rose at their slowest pace in more than four years in the three months to July as households felt the pinch of inflation which is rising faster than wages, mortgage lender Halifax said on Monday.

Average house prices in the period were 2.1 percent higher than a year earlier, slowing from a 2.6 percent increase in June's figures and down from growth of more than 8 percent in July last year, Halifax said.

Economists in a Reuters poll had expected a 2.0 percent rise.

Russell Galley, managing director of Halifax Community Bank, said the squeeze on spending power, plus the impact of property tax changes in 2016 and affordability concerns, was weighing on demand.

In July alone, house prices rose by 0.4 percent, partially recovering from a monthly fall of 0.9 percent in June and slightly stronger than a median forecast for growth of 0.2 percent in the Reuters poll.

Prices fell by 0.2 percent between May and July compared with the previous three months, the fourth successive quarterly fall and marking the longest such decline since November 2012.

Britain's housing market has slowed sharply since the vote in June 2016 to leave the European Union, when prices were growing by almost 10 percent a year.

The slowdown has contributed to a fall in consumer confidence. Credit card firm Visa said on Monday that British consumer spending fell for the third month in a row in July in its longest losing streak in over four years. The fall in house prices, on an annual basis, measured by Halifax contrasted with a slight pick-up in prices as measured by rival mortgage lender Nationwide and published last week.

Both lenders say the growth in prices is not weaker than it already is due to a lack of homes on the market.

A Reuters poll of economists published in May produced a median forecast for house prices to rise by around 2 percent in 2017, 2018 and 2019, slower than in the previous Reuters poll published in February

on the other hand, foreign money will find house prices progressively cheaper as £ weakens
foreign money does not just buy the super-swanky pads, but also interests itself in lettable properties and similar

Trading Statement

Overview
Pete Redfern, Chief Executive, commented:

"Taylor Wimpey has performed strongly during the second half of 2017, delivering excellent sales rates and making further good progress against our operational targets. While we are alert to potential political and economic risks, demand for new housing remains high across the UK and market conditions are favourable. Notwithstanding the recent small increase in the base rate, we have continued to see stability in trading patterns.

Looking ahead, we are on track to meet our full year expectations and deliver further growth and performance improvement in 2018. With a strong balance sheet in place and a high-quality landbank, our business is very well positioned to deliver sustainable growth".

UK current trading
The UK housing market has remained positive through the second half of 2017. Customer demand continued to be robust supported by healthy employment trends, a competitive mortgage market and the Government's Help to Buy scheme. We have experienced favorable trading patterns across our businesses, while in Central London market conditions remain stable.

Sales rates for the year to date have continued to be strong at 0.81 sales per outlet per week (2016 equivalent period: 0.75). For the second half of the year to date, sales rates are 0.71 (2016 equivalent period: 0.70), with a sales rate of 0.73 over the last 8 weeks (2016 equivalent period: 0.73). Cancellation rates for the year remain low at 13% (2016 equivalent period: 13%). For the year to date we have operated on an average of 290 outlets (2016 equivalent period: 291). Current outlets stand at 285, slightly higher than the equivalent period last year.

The current total order book, excluding joint ventures, of 8,751 homes, is slightly below last year (2016 equivalent period: 8,981), and stands at c.£2.2 billion (2016 equivalent period: c.£2.3 billion).

Build costs are expected to increase 3-4% this year, as previously indicated, with the greater pressure coming from labour costs and a more modest level of cost inflation in building materials.

Land
The land market remains very attractive and we continued to acquire land on compelling financial metrics. With our short term landbank at broadly optimal scale we are operating on a replacement basis, and therefore remain disciplined in our approach, only pursuing opportunities that meet our investment and location criteria. Having added c.13,700 plots to the short term landbank in the year to the end of October, the short term landbank has grown slightly to c.80k plots, with the strategic landbank at c.107k plots.

In August, as previously announced, the Group acquired part of the Mount Pleasant estate, in Central London, from the Royal Mail for a total cash consideration of £190 million. The development represents an excellent multi-year development opportunity in a high-quality location, with attractive financial metrics that meet all the Group's key investment criteria. Separately, our Major Developments business has recently announced a joint venture agreement with Wandsworth London Borough Council for the regeneration of Winstanley and York Road estates that will provide more than 2,200 new homes, in addition to significant new amenities and facilities for the local community.

Spain current trading
The Spanish housing market has remained strong throughout 2017. The order book for our Spanish business stands at 388 homes as of 5 November 2017 (2016 equivalent period: 342 homes). We expect the business to report another year of growth in operating profit* in 2017 (FY 2016: £20.6 million operating profit*).

Group financial position
We expect net cash at the end of 2017 to be around £500 million (31 December 2016: £365 million), subject to the timing of conditional land purchases, and after the payment of £450 million of dividends to shareholders in 2017.

Leasehold
At the conclusion of our leasehold review we made a provision in the first half accounts, before tax, of £130 million, which we continue to believe is an appropriate estimate. Following the launch of our Ground Rent Review Assistance Scheme in April, we were pleased to reach agreements with freeholders to enable the substantial majority of our customers with a ten-year doubling lease to convert ground rent terms to an RPI based structure, should they elect to participate. Converting to an RPI based structure addresses concerns about the mortgageability and saleability of these properties. We continue to make good progress towards securing agreements with other freeholders to also enable the conversion of the remaining doubling ground rent leases. We expect a modest cash impact in 2017 with the majority of the outflow to be spread over approximately the next two years.

Outlook
We are on track to deliver FY17 results in line with our expectations, and we expect to achieve further growth and performance improvement in 2018. In FY17 we expect to deliver an increase in the operating profit* margin (FY 2016: 20.8%), a return on net operating assets** of over 30% and we also confirm the FY18 total dividend of c.£500 million, subject to relevant shareholder approvals. We reiterate our intent to make further material capital returns in 2019 and beyond, and we will provide further details at our Strategy Day next year. We remain highly focused on driving improvements in all our operational disciplines and are pleased with the continued progress being made with both our customer and product offerings.

Whilst underlying market conditions remain healthy and we have seen no evidence of a change in trading patterns we are nevertheless alert to the potential risks from heightened political and economic uncertainty. Our strategy, based on a robust balance sheet, a high quality landbank and a strong order book, provides the flexibility and resilience to enable us to manage any change in market conditions, if required.

* Operating profit is defined as profit on ordinary activities before net finance costs, exceptional items and tax, after share of results of joint ventures.
** Return on net operating assets is defined as 12 month operating profit divided by the average of the opening and closing net operating assets, which is defined as net assets less net cash less deferred tax balances, less any accrued dividends.

-Ends-

Is that the end of the road for house builders rising?

Official UK house prices figures fall as Bank of England mulls rates

(ShareCast News) - Official UK figures showed house prices are falling more than expected and are predicted to worsen in coming months.

The official house price index fell by 0.5% month-to-month in October, the Office for National Statistics revealed on Tuesday.

House prices in September were also revised down by 0.6%. As a result, the year-over-year growth rate decreased to 4.5% in October from 4.8% in September, well below the consensus, 5.2%

bermon: IMHO Many houses needed for the many low-paid folk in our cities.... until that is fixed builders like TW can / should address Big Builds as well as "Gentry Estates"
Recent TV "ww2-Blitz" programme showed Scottish Tenements - IMHO a good design, using modern methods . . But why not in a cruciform, so more apartments per floor? Could this solve the Council-house low-paid problem, while keeping building to less than (Say) ten floors? Folks are wary of Tower-Blocks... but they are "Most economical" - so something has to be design-driven, if ever the "Housing Shortage" is to be fixed with the rising population expectations. Maybe a linking feature would permit greater height, so there is an "Escape route" while preventing antisocial behaviour . . . one aspect where Middle-Class designs fail. For low-cost: 10-story double-cruiciform (i.e linked)... well, why not?

For completeness :- Trading statement for the year ended 31 Dec 2017

Taylor Wimpey is issuing the following update on trading ahead of its full year results for the year ended 31 December 2017, which will be announced on 28 February 2018.

Overview

Pete Redfern, Chief Executive, commented:

"We achieved a strong financial and operational performance in 2017 and are continuing to deliver against our strategy. Despite wider macroeconomic uncertainty, housing market fundamentals remain solid and our trading performance has been good. We continue to increase housing completions, achieving 5% growth during the year, and ended 2017 with a good forward order book.

We were particularly pleased with the improvements in our customer satisfaction metrics during the year, which were the result of a number of changes made to our approach in 2016. In the last six months we recorded average customer satisfaction scores of over 90%, and we will continue to prioritise making further improvements in this area.

We go into 2018 with positive momentum and expect to achieve further progress against our medium term targets. Our focused strategy of managing the business through the cycle, while also driving further operational improvements, will enable us to continue to deliver long term value for shareholders."

UK current trading

Against the backdrop of a positive housing market in 2017, we continued to see good demand and trading throughout the year. Customers continued to benefit from a wide range of mortgage products, low interest rates and the Government's Help to Buy scheme. Employment trends continue to be healthy and customer confidence remains robust.

In 2017 total home completions increased by 5% to 14,541, including joint ventures (2016: 13,881). During 2017 we delivered 2,809 affordable homes (2016: 2,690), including joint ventures, equating to 19% of total completions (2016: 19%).

Our net private reservation rate for 2017 was 0.77 homes per outlet per week (2016: 0.72), and cancellation rates remained low at 13% (2016: 13%). Average selling prices on private completions increased by 3% to £296k (2016: £286k), with the overall average selling price increasing by 4% to £264k (2016: £255k).

We ended 2017 with an order book valued at £1,628 million as at 31 December 2017 (31 December 2016: £1,682 million), excluding joint ventures. This order book represents 7,136 homes (31 December 2016: 7,567 homes), which has fallen slightly, as we have increased the pace of production so as to meet market demand in the year.

We enter 2018 with 278 outlets (31 December 2016: 285) and traded from an average of 287 outlets in 2017 (2016: 290). Build cost inflation in 2017 was 3-4% and we expect a similar rate of inflation in 2018 given resourcing pressures in the sector.

Following the introduction of a number of changes to our customer service approach in 2016, we are pleased to note an improvement in customer satisfaction, averaging a score of over 90% in the last six months.

Land

The short term land market continued to be positive in 2017. As planned, we operated at broadly replacement levels given our landbank is around optimal scale. As at the end of December 2017, our short term landbank stood at c.75k plots (2016: c.76k plots). The strategic landbank has expanded further to c.117k plots (2016: c.108k plots), even after the successful conversion of c.8k plots from the strategic land pipeline into the short term landbank (2016: c.10k) in the year.

Spain current trading

The Spanish market remained strong in 2017. We completed 301 homes in 2017 (2016: 304) at an average selling price of €352k (2016: €358k). The total order book as at 31 December 2017 stood at 329 homes (31 December 2016: 293 homes). We expect to report a significantly improved operating profit* for the Spanish business in 2017 (2016: £20.6 million operating profit*). The business is well positioned for further growth in 2018.

Group financial position

We ended the year in a robust position with net cash of c.£512 million (31 December 2016: £365 million net cash), after the payment of £450 million of dividends to shareholders in 2017 (2016: £356 million).

We have now secured agreements with 90% of freeholders to enable our customers with a ten-year doubling ground rent lease to convert to an RPI-based structure, should they elect to participate in our assistance scheme. We continue to make good progress towards securing agreements with the other freeholders. Our estimate on the total cost remains in line with prior commentary.

Outlook

We will report FY 2017 results in line with our expectations, and we expect to achieve further growth and performance improvement in 2018. For FY 2017 the Group will deliver an improved operating profit* margin of c.21.2% (2016: 20.8%) and a return on net operating assets** of over 32% (2016: 30.7%). We will pay a total dividend in FY 2018 of c.£500 million, subject to shareholder approvals, and reiterate our intention to make further material capital returns in 2019 and beyond, with details to be provided at our Strategy Day scheduled for H1 2018.

We start this year in a strong financial and operational position with significant embedded value in our short term landbank and strategic pipeline. Whilst we are aware of potential political and economic risks, we expect to demonstrate further progress in 2018 against our medium term financial targets, whilst also driving further operational improvements where we can add value, including customer service and product quality.


* Operating profit is defined as profit on ordinary activities before net finance costs, exceptional items and tax, after share of results of joint ventures.

** Return on net operating assets is defined as 12-month operating profit divided by the average of the opening and closing net operating assets, which is defined as net assets less net cash less net tax balances, excluding any accrued dividends.



-Ends-

10 Jan 18 Numis Hold 197.40 - 221.00 Downgrades

10 Jan 18 Shore Capital Hold 197.40 - - Reiterates

10 Jan 18 Peel Hunt Hold 197.40 210.00 210.00 Downgrades

10 Jan 18 Liberum Capital Hold 197.40 200.00 200.00 Reiterates

08 Jan 18 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 197.40 220.00 220.00 Reiterates

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5872808


Please Note - Streaming News is only available to subscribers to the Active Level and above



Taylor Wimpey underlying profit up 10.7% on higher home completions
StockMarketWire.com
Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey said its annual profit slipped due to a one-off charge related to leasehold compensation payments. Underlying profit rose, boosted by higher completion rates and selling prices.

Pre-tax profit fell 5.7% to £555.3m, while underlying pre-tax profit rose 10.7% to £812.0m.

The company said it had made a 'good start' to 2018 and was encouraged by the levels of demand coming into the spring selling season.

As at 18 February, the company was around 47% forward sold for private completions for 2018, with a total order book value of £1.97bn, compared to 1.98bn a year earlier.

As previously announced, Taylor Wimpey said it would pay a total dividend in 2018 of around £500 million, subject to shareholder approvals, and intended to pay 'further material capital returns in 2019 and beyond'.

'2017 was another strong year for Taylor Wimpey and we enter 2018 in a good position with positive forward momentum,' chief executive Pete Redfern said.

'We have been encouraged by early trading patterns at the start to the year and despite some wider macroeconomic uncertainty, consumer confidence remains robust and market fundamentals are solid.'

'We enter 2018 with a strong order book and are well positioned to make further progress against our medium term targets and in delivering long term value for shareholders.'



Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

Healthy dividends announced:

Subject to shareholder approval the 2017 final ordinary dividend of c.2.44 pence per share will be paid on 18 May 2018 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 6 April 2018 (2016 final dividend: 2.29 pence per share). In combination with the interim dividend of 2.30 pence per share (2016 interim dividend: 0.53 pence per share) this gives a total ordinary dividend for the year of c.4.74 pence (2016 ordinary dividend: 2.82 pence per share).

In addition, on 14 July 2017, we returned £300.5 million to shareholders by way of a special dividend, equating to 9.2 pence per ordinary share. As previously announced in August 2017 we intend to return c.£340 million to shareholders in July 2018, equating to 10.4 pence per ordinary share, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM. This is proposed to be paid on 13 July 2018 as a cash dividend to all shareholders on the register at close of business on 1 June 2018.

damn capitalist housebuilder cashing in on the poor downtrodden proletariat .... even the kulaks are struggling with house prices at current levels .... no doubt the next neo-marxist gov't will put that to rights (lefts?) with CPO's and more

:0)

Are your knees knocking?

why would they be? .... we have electric gates; that should keep the mob at bay :-)

but is your ivory tower safe from attack?

Be careful you don't blow your own fuse.

if the gates fail to stop them, the usual barricades manned by loyal staff with garden forks and the like should scare 'em off

what defense systems do they have in ivory towers such as the one where you live?
for sure the ivory will be a very valuable commodity to help fund this new proletariat state

Are you sure the staff will defend you?

Perhaps, they may enable the hordes to strip you of any ill-gotten gains.

Erm....

i think fred believes owning your own home is "ill gotten"



sorry skinny (and others) ...... this has probably now been off-piste too long :-)

Manuel.

In the case of some, could be!

But once again you seem to be professing telepathic abilities.

-=-=-=-=

Skinny,

Apologies.

Should ignore trolls.

But Manuel is special.

Taylor Wimpey sales hit by poor weather
StockMarketWire.com
Taylor Wimpey's average private sales were 0.85 per outlet per week in the year to date, down from 0.93 the year before.

The group said the underlying housing market has remained stable in the first four months of 2018, with continued good accessibility to mortgages at competitive rates.

During the first few weeks of March, the poor weather conditions had a noticeable impact on sales and build rates but activity has since recovered.

Cancellation rates were 13% compared with 10% a year ago.

Pete Redfern, chief executive, said: "We have continued to see good demand for new housing through early 2018. Looking ahead, as we embark on the next stage of our strategy, our focus is on building our capability to deliver great quality homes and places for our customers over the long term."

As at 22 April 2018, the total order book value stood at approximately £2,155 million (2017 week 16: £2,210 million). This represents 9,050 homes (2017 week 16: 9,219 homes), excluding legal completions to date.

Subject to shareholder approval, Taylor Wimpey will be paying a final ordinary dividend of 2.44 pence per share on 18 May 2018 (2016 final dividend: 2.29 pence per share), giving a total ordinary dividend for the year of 4.74 pence per share (2016 total ordinary dividend: 2.82 pence per share).

The company said trading through the spring selling season has been good and customer demand for housing continues to be strong, with good access to mortgages, low interest rates and healthy employment prospects.

It remains on track to meet its expectations for the year, but expects completions for 2018 to be more second half weighted than 2017.

Build cost inflation is anticipated to be at similar levels to 2017, at around 3-4%.

Story provided by StockMarketWire.com


-=-=

Worth a look if there is a drop in Share Price.

StockMarketWire.com
House builder Taylor Wimpey booked a small fall in adjusted first-half profits after severe winter weather earlier in the year led to lower completions.

Pre-tax profit, excluding exceptional items fell 1.2% to £331.0m, as revenue fell 0.4% to £1.72bn.

Taylor Wimpey declared an interim dividend of 2.44p per share, up 6.1% on-year. From 2019, the company also confirmed it would pay a special dividend of around 10.7p per share, up from 10.4p per share paid in 2018.

'As employment prospects remain positive and mortgage availability is good, customer demand for our homes has been strong in spite of some wider macroeconomic uncertainty,' chief executive Pete Redfern said.

'With a strong order book in place, we are confident in our prospects for the remainder of the year and looking further ahead.'

The company completed 6,497 homes in the first half, down from 6,648 on-year.

The average selling price rose to £295k, up from £287k.

Taylor Wimpey sales rates improve in second half
StockMarketWire.com
Residential developer Taylor Wimpey said sales rates had grown in the second half, as the UK housing market remained resilient despite economic uncertainty.

Sales rates for the year to date remained strong at 0.81 sales per outlet per week, matching the 0.81 recorded in the previous corresponding period, the company said.

However, in the second half of the year to date, the company achieved a sales rate of 0.77, up from 0.71 in the previous corresponding period.

Cancellation rates for the year to date were 14%, which was slightly higher than 13% on-year.

The company's current order book, excluding joint ventures, represented 9,783 homes, which was 12% up on-year.

The order book stood at around £2.4bn, up 9% on-year and at the upper end of the company's expectations.

'We would expect this to reduce naturally towards the end of the year as more homes complete,' the company said.

Underlying prices in the period, and in the order book, remained in line with the first half of the year.

'We have delivered a strong performance during the second half of 2018, with very good sales rates supported by positive customer demand and a supportive lending environment,' chief executive Pete Redfern said.

'This builds on our strong forward order book and puts us on track to meet full year expectations.'

Customer demand continued to be underpinned by low interest rates, a wide choice of mortgage deals and the government's Help to Buy scheme, Taylor Wimpey said.

Looking to 2019, Redfern said: 'We remain mindful of wider political and economic risks and the potential impact on customer confidence.'

'However, with a strong balance sheet in place and a high-quality landbank, our business is well positioned to deliver further sustainable growth and cash flow over the medium term.'









Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

Six months ago this was ~£2, now ~£1.68 - yet politicians keep saying we need more houses, etc. BUT I wonder if the "houses" the politicians want are significantly cheaper then the average sold by TW ( or any other national house-builder). So could the Market be wary due to BREXIT, I wonder....with the risk that many low-paid service industries won't be operating from inner-cities? These are NOT the folks that can afford new-build houses in the conventional scenario - IMHO.
However, if the number of folks in the house-market does fall - this must affect selling-prices over time - so maybe it is this that the sp is reacting to.
Time will tell.

The headline price is the issue.

As you mention.

This share is puzzling me (as is PSN). I last bought this at around 115p after the referendum and sold at 200p somewhere near the top. The entry was good judgement, the exit was very lucky.

I really didn't think when I sold it would pull back to less than 180p. At 160p I started looking at it, thinking that was a good entry, only at the time I was fully invested.

I'm now looking at 142p and shaking me head and deciding the share price is stuffed at least until the meaningful vote is done and given how fast it is falling how do you catch a falling knife that is falling this fast?

I see a little support on the chart around 130p.

It's currently a crazy low price but hey what do I know? Is this Woodford selling or is there some other reason besides the Brexit stuff?

I hold TW.

I think the problem is anxiety about Brexit and the economy afterward.

Problems with a probable rise in unemployment, pay stagnation, further devaluation and rise in interest and mortgage rates.

TW seems to have enough cash to survive a severe downturn and at the moment is paying a good yield.

But I don't like what I think is likely to happen.

But about half my shares go up one day and down the next and then sideways.

Hi all,my profit has now gone,Is it now a case of waiting for further sp falls then buy,hoping it will move back up after Brexit . any thoughts on what the bottom sp will be ! ?

It depends on how young you are.

But unless present political elite have guts to own up to making their mistakes, having a free vote on Brexit, resign and have a G/E. or G/E and new "sensible" referendum you are going to have to sweat one way or another for quite a while.

But cash is not as safe as it might appear and if you cash in "shares" what are you going to put it in.

Property abroad for a few years. UMMM

Which currency?

Anyway, good luck.

fred - just shut up for once and get down from your political soapbox


overseas property
having considered this in depth several years ago, we came to the fairly easy conclusion that this was a bad bet for all sorts of very good reasons

Alf - loses his rag alert!

If you don't succeed at first try try and try again 😃

Stan.

Do you mean rent a mouth?

Tory fodder.

Who else Fred.. who else 🙄

The sector is trending down now for a few months.

Difficult to know where it will plateau.

back in your box little puppet

Thats no way to address a fellow Claret Alf 😂

the only claret i know comes from being punched on the nose or in bottles from bordeaux :-)

damn hot here today, so glad to have a notional day off, though tomorrow will not be

Stan,

Can you imagine Manuel festering in the heat?

The image is pretty revolting.

I could Fred but I think I'll pass on that one 🥴

CD.

"May cheer you up!

Director Deals - Taylor Wimpey PLC (TW.)
BFN
Kevin Beeston, Chairman, bought 112,870 shares in the company on the 4th December 2018 at a price of 131.78p. The Director now holds 1,818,432 shares.

Story provided by StockMarketWire.com
Director deals data provided by www.sharesmagazine.co.uk"

Decision time.

CD.

If you held, TW and many other "builders" appear to be doing well this am.

Trading Statement

Taylor Wimpey is issuing the following update on trading ahead of its full year results for the year ended 31 December 2018, which will be announced on 27 February 2019.

Overview

Pete Redfern, Chief Executive, commented:

"I am pleased to report another year of strong performance, in line with our expectations. Despite wider macroeconomic uncertainty, the housing market remained stable during 2018 and we had a good trading performance. We are continuing to deliver against our strategy and ended the year in a positive position, underpinned by our strong order book and balance sheet.

As we enter 2019, we maintain our guidance for stable volumes although are mindful of market sensitivity. We are confident that our focused strategy of managing the business through the cycle and driving further operational improvements will enable us to continue to deliver a high-quality product and service to our customers, long term value for shareholders and growth into 2020."

UK current trading

We will report 2018 full year results in line with expectations. The housing market remained stable throughout 2018, set against the backdrop of an uncertain macroeconomic and political environment. During the year, we saw good levels of demand, which converted into strong sales rates across the business.

In 2018, total home completions increased by 3% to 14,947, including joint ventures (2017: 14,541). During 2018, we delivered 3,416 affordable homes (2017: 2,809), including joint ventures, equating to 23% of total completions (2017: 19%).

Our net private reservation rate for 2018 was 0.80 homes per outlet per week (2017: 0.77). Cancellation rates remained low at 14% (2017: 13%). Average selling prices on private completions increased by 2% to £301k (2017: £296k), with the overall average selling price remaining flat at £264k (2017: £264k). Trading was robust despite, as previously reported, seeing some signs of increasing customer caution towards the end of 2018 in London and the South East.

We ended 2018 with an excellent total order book valued at £1,782 million as at 31 December 2018 (31 December 2017: £1,628 million), excluding joint ventures, as a result of our strategy to increase efficiency and drive growth through the targeted operation of our large sites. This order book represents 8,304 homes (31 December 2017: 7,136 homes), with the growth due to affordable housing.

We enter 2019 with 256 outlets (31 December 2017: 278) and traded from an average of 273 outlets in 2018 (2017: 287). As we have previously reported, this is slightly lower than expected with delays impacting opening timing, and the higher sales rate achieved in the second half of the year resulting in closing outlets slightly earlier.

Build cost inflation in 2018 was 3-4%, in line with previous guidance.

Customers

We are very pleased that the improvement in our customer satisfaction score has been sustained, and we have achieved an average customer satisfaction score of 90% in 2018, as measured by the Home Builders Federation (HBF) eight-week survey.

Employees

We are delighted to have been named in the top 10 places to work in the UK, by Glassdoor, as voted for by employees, once again the only commercial housebuilder to make the list.

Land

The short term land market continued to be positive in 2018. As at the end of December 2018, our short term landbank stood at c.76k plots (2017: c.75k plots). We have grown our strategic land pipeline to c.127k plots (2017: c.117k plots), including the successful conversion of c.8k plots into the short term landbank (2017: c.8k). This increase in the strategic land pipeline will help underpin future volume growth, without substantially increasing cyclical and market risk.

Spain current trading

The Spanish market remained positive in 2018. We completed 342 homes in 2018 (2017: 301) at an average selling price of €344k (2017: €352k). The total order book as at 31 December 2018 stood at 284 homes (31 December 2017: 329 homes). Spain will deliver an improved operating profit* in 2018 (2017: £26.8 million operating profit*) and is well placed to continue to progress in 2019.

Group financial position

We ended the year with a strong net cash balance of c.£644 million (31 December 2017: £511.8 million net cash), ahead of expectations and due to the timing and quantum of land investment. This is after the payment of £500 million of dividends to shareholders in 2018 (2017: £450.5 million).

Following the landmark legal judgment in October last year, ruling on the equalisation of guaranteed minimum pensions for men and women in UK defined benefit pension plans, we have reviewed our own position with our Pension Scheme Trustees. Accordingly, we currently estimate that the Scheme's liabilities will increase by £15-20 million on an accounting basis and expect to record this as an exceptional charge in the 2018 full year results. The position will be kept under review, including the amount of the liability, pending any further clarification and Government guidance.

Outlook

We will report full year 2018 results in line with our expectations and, as previously announced, remain committed to returning £600 million to shareholders by way of total dividend in 2019, subject to shareholder approval.

Whilst it is clearly too early to give a definitive view on 2019 trading, we continue to see solid forward sales indicators and start the year with a very strong order book. We are pleased that customers remain able to access a wide range of mortgage products at competitive interest rates. Employment trends also remain at healthy levels and customers will be able to benefit from the Government's Help to Buy scheme until 2023. However, we will continue to closely monitor market conditions for any potential impact on customer confidence in light of the wider political and economic uncertainty.

We have made good progress throughout 2018 in embedding further enhancements for our customers and further improving our employee experience, whilst realising the investments we have made to underpin future growth capability and delivery success. As we transition to our new strategy announced in May 2018, we reiterate our previous guidance for 2019 for similar volumes to 2018, in current market conditions, with significant volume growth potential for 2020 onwards. We will provide further guidance on 2019 as the year progresses.

* Operating profit is defined as profit on ordinary activities before net finance costs, exceptional items and tax, after share of results of joint ventures.

-Ends-