Company Web site : http://www.petromatadgroup.com/

Twitter : https://twitter.com/Petro_Matad/

Petro Matad is a group focused on oil exploration, as well as potential future development and production in Mongolia. The Group’s assets consist of Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) over the following exploration blocks:

Matad Block XX, with an area of 10,340km2 in the far eastern part of Mongolia near the Chinese border

Bogd Block IV and Ongi Block V, adjacent to each other in west central Mongolia totalling approximately 50,000km2


Edison Research Note July 2018 : https://nofile.io/f/j90GYESdoet/MATD.pdf

March 2018 video presentation : HTTPS://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL9rbvLAjn4

Interview with CEO July 2018 : HTTPS://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ra79wR0_jS0





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Taken a position in this one around the 9p level.

They are fully funded for 6 wells............4 in 2018 and 2 in 2019 (split by the non-drilling winter when drilling cannot be done).

First well Snow Leopard has already spudded and will take around 50 to 70 days with a number of targets.

The second well is the big one..........Wild Horse, which will spud when the first well is complete. Its been rated by Wood Mackenzie as 1 of the top 20 wildcats to watch in 2018. Rather large and if successful would amount to a blue sky share price.

I have put the recent Edison note link in the header. Going to be an interesting time in the months ahead on MATD.

In the recent placing at 10p (to add the 2 drills in in 2019 on top of the 4 this year) the Directors purchased around 250K US$ of stock........so they have plenty of skin in the game........which is a bonus.

don't put your shirt on it. BB

A lot of shares need to be bought up before this starts to move after placing,also months off any news so on back burner for now.

Not pumping BOR any more pro,must of got well and trully burnt there!

BOR ??

Was only ever FOGL and RKH for me. BOR was only in/out trading on the drilling.

:)

Interview with CEO July 2018 : HTTPS://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ra79wR0_jS0


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Earlier March 2018 Oil Capital Conference Presentation video link :

HTTPS://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL9rbvLAjn4

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Some decent buying today. Cleared a bit of the overhang anyway.

Strong volume and price action upwards today, nice to see.

Looks fairly balanced today. Has the overhang cleared finally ?

3150 meter drill @ 120 ft day = 2 . 87 months oct oil spouts , don't like director selling. maybe , just hard up, is a better picture coming , please through a light on director sells and why. from informed one. BB

The director who sold, way back in what was it - April ? She is also the one who is retiring.

In the meantime in the very recent placing at 10p share price, the other directors purchased 250K USD of stock.

So 1 director in April sold a few, but other directors very recently purchased a whole lot more - and this is a problem ?

Director (non-exec) who sold in April sold 1 million shares.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-matad-ltd--matd-/rns/director-pdmr-shareholding/201807110900032854U/

Her resultant shareholding is (or was) 12 million shares.

Her retirement was announced :

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-matad-ltd--matd-/rns/notice-of-agm-and-proposed-board-changes/201807240700035049V/

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In the meantime in June, the Exec Directors purchased 2 million shares at 10 pence a share :

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-matad-ltd--matd-/rns/results-of-placing/201806140700043776R/


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So thats where the summary is ........

Abnormally high volume today and a 16% rise.

Nothing to get excited about as the only thing that matters is the RNS when it comes and drill results......good or bad.

The next well to be drilled (straight after this one) is the big one, albeit this one is still big in itself for MATD. NPV10's of the first three wells as massive, if they strike oil.

I made up the below.

If drilling is 70 days as per the RNS then they just poked the upside yesterday (day 39 of 70).

If drilling is 50 days as per the past presentations then they just poked the main target yesterday.

Either way day 39 was a key day on either a 50 or 70 day schedule.

Some references to Blocks IV and V in the below article.

HTTPS://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2015/01/mongolia-potential-in-an-emerging-economy

Its why BG were so interested in Blocks IV and V and farmed in. Although these are Wildcat wells in Blocks IV and V with Snow Leopard and Wild Horse.........they are Basin Opening Plays.

If they strike oil, it means big big upside in the other targets and prospects in the blocks - and potential, as it says on the tin........Basin Opening.

Dont like seeing an RNS pop up after 4:30pm on a Friday........causes the old ticker to skip a beat.

Anyway, just AGM notice :

HTTPS://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-matad-ltd--matd-/rns/notice-of-agm/201808241632548730Y/
...........24 August 2018

Petro Matad Limited

Notice of AGM

Petro Matad Limited (AIM: MATD), the AIM-quoted Mongolian oil explorer, confirms that the Annual General Meeting ("AGM") of the Company will be held at 4.00 p.m. local time (9.00 a.m. BST) on 20 September 2018 at Blue Sky Tower, Topaz Conference Hall, Peace Avenue 17, Sukhbaatar District, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. ..................

And to put some figures on mid-case values :

2018 Mid case oil strike - 100% owned

Snow Leopard-1 90 MMBO circa 60p a share (early Sep 2018 result)
Wild Horse-1 480 MMBO circa 320p a share (Nov 2018 result)
Gazelle 13 MMBO circa 8.5p a share (Oct 2018 result)
Drill TBC - ?? MMBO circa ?,? a share (tbc...will be in Block XX) (Nov 18 result)

2019 Mid case oil strike - 100% owned

Red Deer-1 48 MMBO circa 32p a share (May?jun 2019 result)
Fox-1 200 MMBO circa 132p a share (May/Jun 2019 result)

Of course, thats not taking into account all the other prospects being derisked if they do strike oil......which adds yet more value.

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Worth a listen.

Mike Buck talking in July.


HTTP://www.petromatadgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/SM20180710-presentation.mp3


Super Majors waiting in the wings if they strike oil :)
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Half year results out.

HTTPS://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-matad-ltd--matd-/rns/half-year-report/201809070700020584A/

All good, SL-1 ongoing.

I suspected that the Technical Permit (you need a drilling permit and a technical permit) was the problem for Block XX and they say regulatory problem caused the delay. Anyway, more time to assess seismic and then 3 wells back to back April onwards.

WH-1, the big one, on track after SL-1 completes.

For me I have intimated that delays to Block XX could be a positive thing.

As said before, if they have an oil strike at SL-1 or later at WH-1, they will be in a stronger farm out position with more cash in the bank.

They could, if they strike, say to a potential farm in partner, ok, we will appraise the discovery at SL-1 or WH-1 and therefore reduce your risk (and increase the selling price). Block XX money can be used for appraising a big oil strike at Block IV or V.

If they drill Block XX this year - no help.

If they drill Block XX after both Blocks IV and V (WH-1 and SL-1) are drilled, its much more beneficial to their negotiation position to farm out a discovery - as in use the cash to appraise and not for Block XX.

So, I am looking forward to Mike Buck's SL-1 update, as he is as well it seems.

Based on the latest info the drill schedule should be as below, however, if they strike oil at SL-1 or WH-1 this year I expect it to change again with Block XX being dropped and the focus being on appraising any oil discovery at SL-1 or WH-1. AIMHO.


DRILL 1) Snow Leopard-1 well (Block V)
Spudded 9 Jul 2018, 70 days max to complete, “results expected mid September”.

a) 90 mmbo recoverable (mid case) from two main target depths (20 mmbo + 70 mmbo) (“Snow Leopard has 2 main target sections with c.90MMbo recoverable potential [mid case])”; plus
b) There could be oil in the shallow turbidite deposits opening up an extra 200+ mmbo play even before they hit the deeper levels. (“If shallow turbidite concept is proven then a large (200+ MMbo) combination trap play opens”).
c) Additionally, there are “3 or more additional stacked pay zones identified as potential upside.”

There are also 13 or 14 prospects/leads of up to 500 - 600 mmbo recoverable within 35 km of Snow Leopard 1 on their acreage. (“Success de-risks 14 prospects/leads with resource potential of c.500MMbo”).

Initial production of any find would be via trucking routes in the area to China.

DRILL 2) Wild Horse-1 (Block IV)
Spud Sep 2018, “results late Oct, early Nov”.
Targeting 480 MMBO recoverable. (mid case)

Named by Wood Mackenzie as in top 20 exploration wells worldwide to watch in 2018.

Initial production of any find would be via trucking routes in the area to China.

DRILL 3) Fox-1 (Block V)
Spud early Q2 2019.
Mean prospective resource 200 MMBO mid case. High-quality 3D seismic late 2017.
Initial production of any find would be via trucking routes in the area to China.

DRILL 4) New Red Deer prospect, 48MMbo recoverable (mid case) in a basin analogous to nearby producing basins in Mongolia + northern China, within easy reach of existing infrastructure.
Spud late April 2019, complete May 2019 (3 weeks).

DRILL 5) Block XX
Near field Gazelle prospect targeting 13MMBO recoverable & rapid commercialization.
Spud late May 2019
Near to existing production infrastructure which has spare capacity.

DRILL 6) Block XX
-TBC
-rapid commercialization
Spud late June 2019
Near to existing production infrastructure which has spare capacity.

Bit of a comment from Malcy at 22:55 into the audio :

HTTPS://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/ascent-resources-malcy-on-eme-sou-rbd-amer-matd--a0e223b


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News out today............SL-1 is a duster, oil shows but thats all.

Off we go to Wild Horse-1.

480 Million barrels recoverable potential. Worth up to 320p a share.

Spud in the next 3 weeks.

The excitement builds again, and all those looking to buy in for Wild Horse-1 - now will be buying in.

Edison Flash Update:


https://nofile.io/f/8jBAvrFmPwS/IM00B292WR19PetroMatad+200918flash+-+Copy+-+Copy.pdf


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If you put your hindsight goggles on and go backwards now based on what is now known :

The plan was to drill Wild Horse-1 first, then Falcon-1 (as of early 2018 presentations).

Wild Horse-1 (Block IV) has only just(during SL-1 drilling it seems) received its final permits (chemical use) and so could not have been drilled until now anyway.

Falcon-1 (Block V) the 2nd planned well earlier this year was downgraded based on new 3D and removed.

Snow Leopard-1 (Block V) was the only drill ready prospect and which was the first to get all permits in place. MATD are also short of the required spend level of the license of Block V. It was rushed in as the replacement for Falcon-1

I would imagine Mike and his team were between a rock and a hard place here. Fox-1 the new exciting prospect from the new 3D is not drill ready and not permitted, permitting ongoing. Wild Horse-1 which was always your first drill, is not ready as final permits (chemical use etc..) are not in place. Falcon-1 which was your 2nd drill in the schedule is suddenly not worth drilling (too small) compared for Fox-1 so cannot be moved to be 1st.

You either cancel your 2018 drilling schedule (going down like a lead balloon)to allow Wild Horse-1 and Fox-1 back to back in 2019 or you put Snow Leopard-1 into play and drill that while you try to get the final permits for Wild Horse-1 to allow a seamless move from SL-1 to WH-1 in 2018 and go to the local temple to pray you get the Wild Horse-1 final permits before SL-1 finishes drilling.

If I go back now - with knowledge today - you really can see why the 2nd fund raise happened and why it was at 10p (compared to the earlier one at 6.5p - thats all down to Fox-1).

Looking at the prospects - Wild Horse-1 has simple faulting, its a 4 way dip (dome) and has soft amplitude anomalies. Pretty good target. Always was the 1st one they wanted to drill.

Snow Leopard-1 has complex faulting and therefore high sealing risk. In all the presentations after removing Falcon-1 there is nothing much exciting said about SL-1. Look yourselves....its as if someone writes the slide saying, yeah, we got this one too.

Fox-1 - extremely exciting, they spend 4 pages of their latest presentation detailing Fox-1. 3 way dip, normal faulting, bright spot on 3D, live oil shows in coring etc.. etc.. etc...

I feel the only reason they drilled SL-1 was to actually put the 2018 drilling into play and to bide time to get the WH-1 permits complete so they could drill WH-1, whilst also ensuring the spend on Block V was up to the level needed so as not to have any issues with Fox-1 which is also in Block V. And yes, in hindsight now I would say SL-1 was a strati-graphic test well in effect, one which also raised the spend level on Block V to the level required for compliance with the license. It had a (very limited) chance to strike oil and didn't and no surprise there.

Had I known prior that WH-1 was still waiting for final permits I might have put two and two together prior to events, but I didnt, and anyway, its far easier in hindsight, everyone is an expert after the event, as always :)

I dont blame Mike and his team for doing it this way if that is what happened, it makes sense in hindsight, just you started drilling with perhaps what was "off record internally" your worst prospect.

So in summary, my view, SL-1 was just a license spend compliance, waiting for WH-1 final permits, mobilize the rig and get in in the area ready for WH-1, fill in for the downgraded Falcon-1, in effect strati-graphic test well. And in view of that - I really cannot see them not spudding Wild Horse-1 asap, its a must and IMO, it WILL happen very soon.

All IMO, just my thoughts.

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To put things into perspective.

Cormorant-1 (announced today as a duster) which was the big talked about well for TLW, PCL, ONGC was targeting only 124 million barrels recoverable, with follow on prospects for 790 million barrels. This of course being split between the 4 parties involved with the most going to Tullow who had 35%.

Now, Wild Horse-1 is 100% owned by Petro Matad.

It is targeting 480 million barrels recoverable (100% owned by MATD) with follow on prospects of 750 million barrels (100% owned by MATD)

Its way bigger than Cormorant-1..........

That is the reason why Royal Dutch Shell having been talking with MATD and are keenly waiting for the result of Wild Horse-1 - because if it strikes oil then its pretty bolted on that Shell will be looking to farm in to Block IV and Block V given the potential of over 20 billion barrels recoverable in the 2 blocks. Thats why MATD is exciting.

I believe Wild Horse-1 is going to be spudded asap. They want it done before winter. They want the winter to be able to go to Shell and others and see who is willing to pay the most to farm in, in the event of an oil strike at Wild Horse-1.

Shell are in lead position (we know they cut Mongolia after they purchased BG, simply as they are not interested in Wild Cat wells in a new country, they are very interested in Oil discoveries in a new country - hence they told MATD they want to see Wild Horse 1 drilled and are willing to farm in and pay a lot more money AFTER a discovery). I say they are in lead position as they left in the contract that MATD have to pay Shell 5m US$ if they farm out Blocks IV/V to anyone other than Shell in future.

If, and its an big if, but if they strike oil at Wild Horse-1 then they have the winter to do a farm in deal with Shell or another.

Interestingly, if you look at the confidence levels "internally"......... Snow Leopard was never planned in advance for appraisal. Wild Horse-2, an appraisal well for Wild Horse, is already planned and permitted. So why are they planning ahead already to appraise Wild Horse...........they must have high confidence. I imagine the internal CoS for Wild Horse-1 is much higher than the advertised CoS.

Also the rig will be winterised and left over winter at Wild Horse location......... this means if they strike oil at WH-1 they can in effect, if they want, delay Block XX drilling even more and do a straight appraisal with Wild Horse-2 in April......as its already permitted. They can then move to Fox-1 to drill that after WH-2.

And if Wild Horse-1 strikes oil I imagine that is what they will tell Shell and others........... Do you want to farm in now for XXX million, or you want us to appraise Wild Horse and drill Fox-1 and you farm in for XXXX million later.

This is what makes MATD so very interesting over the winter if they strike at Wild Horse-1. A strike at Wild Horse-1 is going to rocket the price for sure..... 480MMBO recoverable and then other prospects derisked for 750MMBO recoverable - all 100% owned. But those who then sell the initial stike will perhaps miss the potential bigger rise, which will be when/if a Super Major farms in over winter.......... A farm in over winter and new funds and free carries could see a number of wells sunk into Blocks IV and V, so the farm in potential company will not want to wait for MATD to appraise and discover more oil and also will not want to waste time in the 2019 drilling season, so the potential for a winter period farm in is high.............IF they strike oil at Wild Horse-1.

All very interesting.

My estimated locations of SL-1 and WH-1 and the distance (bird flies and by road). Bayansair (Bayansayr) is the nearest town. Company has confirmed that the intend to spud Wild Horse-1 this year, the move and rig up is ongoing now.

First shows my guesstimated approx locations of SL-1 and WH-1.

Second shows the distance (300km as the bird flies or 450km by actual road)

Bayansair (Bayansayr) is the nearest town. Daytime temperatures (they only drill daytime) are forecast to be above zero until mid-November.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/mn/bayansayr/241957/october-weather/241957?monyr=10/1/2018

October quite warm daytime.

November slipping to a negative daytime temperature from the 19th November onwards. Cold snap starting 18th November evening. Working back 30 days from then........... the latest date spud should be (for completion and logging in 2018) should be around 20th October. So as we stand now.

Prep work on WH-1 location began in August. Everything possible done in advance for seamless move.
SL-1 finished P&A on Friday 21st Sept.
Move and rig up has been ongoing to 8 days as of today.
22 days remain to get spud done by latest 20th October
Hopefully spud between 8th and 15th October.

Internal CoS for WH-1 is actually 20%. So the Elephant discovery of 2018 boils down to two last chances, CHAR with Prospect S and MATD with Wild Horse-1.

Success case upside is greater on MATD as the prospect is 100% owned and the PSC terms are superb.

A mere 150 million barrel recoverable size find on Block IV for MATD would have an NPV10 of 1.27 billion US$ thanks to low cost of development wells, easy trucking and very good PSC terms ** (that value will be higher now due to rising oil prices)

NPV10 based on Economics run at Dec ‘17 Forward Curve prices: 2018 $63.67/bbl, 2019 $60.58, 2020 $58.56, 2021 $57.62, 2022 $57.25, 2023 $57.22, 2024+ 2% Esc



Well Name: Wild Horse-1 Block IV

Targeting 480 million barrels recoverable (mid case) 100% owned

Additional follow on prospects of 750 million barrels rec. (900 million rec. high case) derkisked in the Wild Horse area if Wild Horse-1 is a success.

Internal company estimates give 20% chance of success for Wild Horse-1

Wild Horse-2 appraisal well already permitted for, in the event of success.

Wild Horse-2 would drill into the other side of the WH lead in the event of a WH-1 discovery.

Due to analogous basin geology across the border in China there is a higher than frontier chance of success for frontier levels of potential

Notable Chinese productive basins include: Junggar Basin 10 Billion barrels recoverable, Songliao Basin 20 Billion barrels recoverable and Bohai-S. North China Basin with 40 Billion barrels recoverable.

Well defined 4-way dip structure and amplitude anomalies that are indicative of hydrocarbons. (Soft amplitude anomalies which conform to structure)

CEO Mike Buck comments that it is “A must drill well”. Royal Dutch Shell have told MATD they want to see Wild Horse-1 drilled.

Endorsed by Wood Mackenzie by their inclusion of Wild Horse-1 on their “one to watch wells in 2018” placing Petro Matad on a list alongside super majors like ENI and Repsol. The only onshore well to make it into the WoodMac list.



** PSC terms (the important bit to value any discovery with)

0% Corporation Tax

Royalty: Block IV 8%

Costs of Exploration, Development, Operations and Transport can be recovered in the success case. The implication for this is that on any success, when coming to arrange finance, this puts the company in a very strong position as it can demonstrate it can repay debt out of Gross revenue rather than profits. Yes, that is remarkably excellent, even transportation costs to sell the oil are recoverable. Pretty much WOW.......... The whole lot, explo, dev, op, transport...all recoverable.

Contractor Profit oil split: Block IV 50% to 57%

You cannot really value an oil discovery unless you also know clearly the PSC terms, then you are able to get a real good read on the NPV10. Given the present oil prices and forward curve the NPV10 value stated above is actually low and should be considerably higher now. The economics and IRR get better the bigger the find, so that is based on 150 MMBO, in the event after any discovery and appraisal that Wild Horse lives up to is Pmean of 480 MMBO recoverable, the figures are mind blowing, thats why its a "well to watch".

Operations Update.

They are behind where I expected them to be, however, they are confident they can spud and complete Wild Horse-1 this year, with spud now being later this month.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-matad-ltd--matd-/rns/operational-update/201810010700054310C/

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Looks like they have joined Twitter too, finally.

https://twitter.com/Petro_Matad

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Wild Horse is spudded.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-matad-ltd--matd-/rns/spud-of-the-wild-horse-1-exploration-well/201810230708078606E/

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Excellent timing for the rise yesterday..........as we know from Snow Leopard-1, on day 39 just as they entered the upper secondary target and got C1 to C5 gas shows.......big volume day.

And now, just as they should be entering the upper of the 3 targets (largest at the bottom), we get some good buying coming in.

So, looking good......nothing is certain, but looking good. Need to see sustained buying and a rising price, with lots of fall backs as people sell for a quick profit, followed by more buying.........repeat and repeat.

Weather has been excellent really.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/mn/bayansayr/241957/november-weather/241957?monyr=11/1/2018


This coming week they should enter the Main Target Zone, if not already. Fingers crossed something good happens, but as always, be prepared for the duster, its the most likely outcome.

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Wild Horse-1 is a duster as per todays RNS.

Got to wait for the drills in 2019 now (all of which are fully funded based on the current plans for 4 drills.


If you take the content of the RNS it looks like :

Next up will be the three low cost Block XX drills. These are all in effect appraisal and have very high chance of success. Each and every one of them is worth more than the current share price.

Drill these three first seems to be the plan, then I think a fund raising at a much higher price.

Fund raising will be for drilling in Block V where they now have (based on the SL-1 drill and latest seismic) three very large 4 way dip prospects. The fund raising will therefore pave the way for a 2 or 3 well drill campaign in Block 5. This is when the rig will drill Fox-1 and then one or two other new prospects they are working on.

So thats how I see it panning out.

1st Drill Block XX (already funded - no need for fund raise)
2nd Drill Block XX (already funded - no need for fund raise)
Fund raising based on success in Block XX and new leads.
3rd Drill Block XX (already funded - no need for fund raise)
1st Drill Block V (Fox-1) (already funded - no need for fund raise)
2nd Drill Block V (new prospect in the south of the license) Fund raise required.
3rd Drill Block V (new prospect in the south of the license) Fund raise required.