New Thread as requested by Wirral Owl.

6 Months Chart:-



10 Day Chart:-



Cheers

Ash

Thanks Ashley.

AVM has ambitious targets to triple production over the next 3 years from cureent levels of around 120 000 ounces upto around 350,000 ounces/p.a.

Penjom in Malaysia produces 110,000 oz/p.a at current costs of around $212 an ounce - and falling.

North Lanut in Indonesia has an expected 15 year lifespan and is set to start production this year with 50,000+ oz/p.a at very low extraction costs of around $150 an ounce.

Jiiau - is expected to also produce 50,000 oz. a year, but costs are higher at $275.

With overall production costs anticipated to fall to around $208 an ounce, yet gold is continuing its rise, currently selling at $367oz, AVM is likely to be transformed from a small profit-making company, into a mid-tier gold producer, on an extremely low P.E. A re-rating may occur if the POG holds or continues to rise


A post pinched from Wallace Morris (thanks Wal, hope you don't mind!?) sums up the situation better than I could :

**********

Gold closed today at over $367oz. Using this figure as a basis, and other figures from company communications (reports, interviews, presentations), the following is a calculation of forecast earnings for Avocet:

PENJOM (110,000oz pa, forecast cash costs $150oz):
110,000 * (367-150) = $23.9 million operating profit pa.

JILAU (50,000oz pa, cash costs $275 oz):
50,000 * (367-280) = $4.5 million operating profit pa.

NORTH LANUT (forecast 50,000+ oz pa @ $150 oz):
50,000 * (367-150) = $10.9 million operating profit pa.

TOTAL FORECAST OPERATING PROFIT = $39.3 million a year.

From this operating profit, we need to subtract financing, exploration and other costs.

EXPLORATION:
Forecast @ $1 million pa.

FINANCING:
Current debt is more than covered by current assets.
Long-term credit is 6.8 million, or $11.3 million. This is repayable over the next 3 years or so, so allow payments of $5 million pa.
Capital expenditure to bring North Lanut into production is forecast at $10 million. Assume $3 million pa for the next 4 years as repayment schedule to cover financing of this.

OTHER:
At the interims they reported a hedged position of 80,000oz @ $298oz. This hedge expires in 2 years time. To liquidate it now would cost 80,000 * (367-298) = $5.5 million, or $2.8 million pa spread across 2 years.

OPERATING PROFIT $39.3 million
EXPLORATION ($1 million)
FINANCING ($8 million)
OTHER ($2.8 million)

FORECAST EARNINGS : $27.5 million per year.

This figure will increase as financing & hedging costs drop away. If gold rises further, so obviously will the earnings.

VALUATION:
A company with Avocet's growth profile should be valued at 15 to 20 times forecast earnings. However, adopting a cautious stance, we'll value them at 10 times forecast earnings.
10 * $27.5 million = $275 million = 168 million.

With 80 million shares in issue, this equates to 2.10 per share.

Wal'

*****


Assuming, as is often the case with Gold producers, we get the odd fly in the ointment - costs dont fall as much as expected, pog falls back, security issues in Tajikistan, etc. it still appears at the current price of 35.5p we have some way to go before AVM reaches fair value.

Cheers,
WirralOwl

WirralOwl, excelent posting above refering to fair value of 2.10 per share.

The number of share in issue used above. Is this figure correct?. This board on analysis seems to think there is around 65 million. Any thoughts?????

GF.

goldfinger,

your posting looks like Energyi on ADVFN!

Are you that person?

Andy,no but tell energyi Ill flog him this name for 1,000.
GF

Like I have said all along its not just down to war.

Date : January 27, 2003

The Great Bear Market In Gold Lasted So Long That Only The Old And Bold Remember The Last Bull Market.


“With age comes Wisdom”, or so one hopes. And with wisdom comes the realisation that things are never quite as they seem to be and the best way to analyse the future lies in a study of the past. This may appear as a bunch of truisms, but apply them to gold - its past and its possible future- and a few things fall into place. Why, for instance, do so many commentators glibly attribute the present revival of the gold price to the possibility of war in Iraq?

As a variant today the Financial Times Markets Report put it down to ‘speculative buying’. This was pinned on a comment from a Mr Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group suggesting that speculators were betting that people who sold the February Comex Futures contract would find it hard to buy the physical gold needed when this contract becomes deliverable on January 31st. Well it is a point, but it can hardly be held responsible for the fact that gold rose by nearly US$10/ounce last week and by US$5 the week before. It has now broken through a high point last reached in 1997. But just to show that the Pink’Un doesn’t give a toss for the gold story one way or the other, it is now going to be without a mining editor as Matthew Jones is moving to an editing job on world news there and no one is lined up to take his place.

On the same day the newspaper carried a piece saying that hedge fund managers have been switching out of falling equity markets and into commodities, particularly gold. John Reade, a precious metals analyst at UBS Warburg was quoted as saying that this switch in policy is confirmed by the fact that there are a record number of positions on the Comex gold contract in New York. He then went on to claim that there is a war premium of US$30 to US$50 in the present price of gold. It would be interesting to know his reasoning. Yes, there was a price spike at the time of the Kuwait war, but things were very different then . Equities were booming and the dollar was strong. Hardly the sort of conditions on which gold thrives.

Maybe the answer is that most of these commentators and analysts have never seen gold on a bull tack before. They have been brought up on a diet of paper currencies interspersed with assurances that gold has had its day. Looking back over the past 23 years to January 1980 when bullion topped out at US$800/oz, it has been in a basic bear market ever since with exception of a few spikes such as the one caused by the Washington Agreement on Central Bank sales. Traders and advisers in any market that maintains the same trend for such a period are bound to assume that it will last forever. Out of that grew the view that gold had had its day. When analyst Andy Smith of Mitsui Precious Metal changed to a bull last year it was easy to see that it caused him real pain as it went against the grain. Even now he finds it hard to maintain a bullish stance and has fallen back to talking in riddles.

Minews, somewhat intrusively, asked Mr Reade how old he was. The answer was 37. At the time gold entered its long bear market he was therefore still at school. How difficult must it be for him to analyse a market when things are happening that he has never experienced before. Minews can give him a good 25 years so maybe it is only those analysts and commentators now approaching their dotage who will be able to recall the times when gold and gold mining companies were an essential part of any well balanced portfolio. Ageism in reverse, perhaps. Equity analysts do not have the same problem as their bull and bear markets have a shorter time span. It is because of this that they are all starting to forecast a recovery as the market marks its entrance to a 4th year of dismal performance by falling for ten days on the trot.

To give a rational assessment of the gold market at the moment Minews has therefore asked James Picton to give us his views. James has been in the mining business as long as Mr Reade has been alive. He was first employed by Gencor in South Africa which transmogrified into Billiton and then joined the London Stock Exchange, being a partner in two leading firms as head of mining research. He then went back to South Africa where he continued to head mining research teams for several broking houses for nearly 20 years. During that time he won a number of awards – diamonds being his speciality – and spoke at conferences all around the world. Now he is back in London and readers of Minesite will get the benefit of his wisdom and age in this article on gold which will be published tomorrow. Hopefully some of the younger commentators and analysts will start to understand the real core of the argument that gold is very much here to stay. The crux of the matter is the dissolving dollar. Iraq, the equity market and technical positions on Comex are mere sideshows to the main event.


GF

smashed throuhg its 36 resistance level where it had lain in the recent past weeks. my fib calcs show the next leve of resistance to be at 42, some 17% higher followed by 49, 36% above level 36.

Latest update from the Boss of Avocet.

CEO of Avocet Mining explains company's position mining gold in Asia, an interview with The Wall Street Transcript

JOHN T. CATCHPOLE is the CEO of Avocet Mining PLC

TWST: It's often helpful to start off by giving a brief overview of the company. Could you give us a brief overview of Avocet Mining (LSE: AVM.L - news) (AVM.L)?

Mr. Catchpole: Avocet Mining is a UK company listed on AIM, the Alternative Investment Market in London. The company has been in existence since the early 1980's and was originally a Vancouver-based company before coming to the UK in 1996. Currently the company is very much focused on gold mining in Asia. It has 100% ownership over a gold mine in Malaysia, called Penjom, which has an annual gold production in excess of 100,000 ounces a year. It has been in production since 1996 and has been the company's main gold asset up to fairly recently. During this year we acquired an exploration property from Newmont Mining Corporation NEM - news) in Indonesia where we have completed a feasibility study with a view to develop a new gold mine by sometime next year. And most recently we have acquired the interests of a UK company in an operating gold mine in Tajikistan in central Asia. So altogether, on an annualized basis, our gold production will be increasing to 160-170,000 ounces with the addition of the Tajikistan mine and then a further 50-60,000 ounces from our project in Indonesia. Avocet has also historically been known as a tungsten producer but those assets were fully written off last year, and we really only have one residual operation left in the tungsten business -- a mine in Portugal under the name of Beralt. Back in September we signed a deal with a Canadian company to sell that business, which we expect to conclude in February, 2003, leaving us, as I say, exclusively in the gold business.

TWST: Turning to some of your specific mining projects such as Penjom in Malaysia and, is it the North Lanut project in Indonesia - would you walk us through some of the recent successes and problems?

Mr. Catchpole: In Penjom, one of the issues that came up over four years ago was that the mine encountered some very difficult metallurgical problems. The ore turned out to be carbonaceous and for the type of processing method that is employed this caused recoveries to drop from around normal levels of around 90% down to as low as 50%. So there was a real concern that the mine would not survive at all; in fact, at those low recovery levels, it would have been uneconomic to continue. However, we took a gamble and started developing our own process systems which, over a period of time, have greatly improved recoveries. We're now back up to recoveries that are in the range of 85% which we're quite proud of because it's all been done with our own technology -- engineered in-house and done at a reasonable capital cost. We've now had over a year's production without any of these problems so we know we have succeeded. Penjom's cash costs have been historically high over the last couple of years because we put a lot of money into pre-stripping waste rock from the open pit, which is really an investment towards lowering future mining costs. And we're now seeing the benefit. Our cash costs are reducing quite rapidly. Last year they were about $225 an ounce. This year they'll be closer to $200 and for the life of existing reserves they should be about $150 an ounce. So our view on Penjom is that it's now very much a proven and sustainable operation - technical problems have now all been resolved and it should be a very strong source of cash flow to the company. North Lanut is represented right now by one main gold deposit that was discovered by Newmont in North Sulawesi. It's a mature exploration project in that it was drilled by Newmont to the extent that there is a known resource there. We have reevaluated the deposit and done more exploration to bring it to a bankable feasibility level. On the strength of those results, we have decided to go ahead with its development. We anticipate that we can get that into production by the middle of next year, producing 50-60,000 ounces. Cash costs should be below $150 an ounce, and it will have an initial mine life of about five to six years. By gold mining standards it's quite a small project, but we have focused solely on this one deposit which is in a highly prospective, forty-square-mile, concession area. Then once we have established infrastructure on the ground we're highly confident that exploration will uncover other deposits in the region that we can bring into development as well.

TWST: Currently, what do you see as potential risks with where you are mining in Asia?

Mr. Catchpole: Well I think there's a perception of certain areas out there as being quite high risk from a political perspective, Indonesia being one case in point. We have people who are very experienced in working in that country, and I think what a lot of people don't realize is that there are areas in Indonesia that are a good deal less of a political risk than others -- North Sulawesi is a case in point. So you really have to pick your territory in that part of the world, and, just as importantly, gain a relationship with the local authorities. So I don't view the specific area of Indonesia where we're at as being high risk. Politically and economically Malaysia is a mature country and very easy to operate in as far as infrastructure and educated work force goes. It is not much different from many Western countries, in fact. Tajikistan is an unusual situation. It's the poorest of the central Asian republics, but probably the easiest to work in from a political risk perspective, particularly for us because the acquisition we made up there involves a company that has been there since the early 1990's. It has really been the country's only relatively successful foreign investor and therefore has a good relationship with the local government. Geographically, the area of Tajikistan we're in is quite isolated from many of the more troublesome regions -- Afghanistan and some of the neighboring countries. In fact the mine was developed during a local civil war which never adversely affected it.

TWST: Where do you see Avocet in five years?

Mr. Catchpole: Well, I think to survive and grow in this business you really have to be in the half-million ounce plus range. I see us growing internally to at least get to our goal of 300,000 ounces within three years. Therefore, within five years, and with only modest exploration success, we should become a middle ranked gold producer. Also, as the market realizes that this is something that we can achieve, we would be looking at merger and acquisition opportunities to accelerate our growth.



Now thats what you call a Business Plan.



GF

GF,

Will you please answer Andy's question, are you Energyi, Goldstock, Goldstone, Natking etc from ADVFN?

Cheers

Ash

Ash, no. I do know of energyi though. Im Oliver LWT.


Positive candidate (24 Jan 2003) [Auto] Help
Has risen 209% since the bottom on 28 Nov 2001 at 11.50. Is within a rising trend. Continued positive development within the trend channel is indicated. Positive volume balance, i.e. high volume in days of rising prices and low volume in days of falling prices, strengthens the stock further in the short term.
Support and resistance: The stock has support at 12.00 p..

GF

Just seen on advfn that Evil K maybee long on AVM.

GF

goldfinger,

Oliver, welcome!

Comdirect will not deal more than 1,000 shares online!

Andy, have you tried the share centre. Iv been getting large amounts online from them but I have heard that MMs are very short of stock. Maybee why spread has come in. regs oliver.

GF.

Oliver,

I managed to buy via dealer on CD in the end, although he had to call the MM.

thanks,

Andy.

avm,

in the red sea of figures on my monitors today, avm has been the exception. not only it ended up the day rising 11.3%, a high percentage daily rise by any standard, but it managed it in a day as grim as this. moreover, the very few stocks that managed to raise their heads above water have managed but a fraction of this figure. other gold mining stock did not fair well either, gfm that managed gains nearing 8% intraday ended the day unchanged. oxs actually dropped by 5.1%!

technically, the stock is currently displaying near perfect configuration(super model fashion), one can't hope for better, as follows:

- all moving averages pointing up.
- the 9 day sma has just crossed over the 18 day sma.
- macd histogram has just levelled up from a down slopping direction and began to head upwards.
- rsi and slow stochs have changed direction from down turning at around mid level 50 to up turning.
- the mid january 03 reversal coincided with a dojji candlestick.

the stock remains rather top heavy. and i suggest this is showing through the high intraday volatility as follows:

- the stock opened the day with an up gap at 38.5p.
- at its highest the stock reached 42 (fib resistance), that is 9.09% above the open price of 38.5. at lowest the stock hit 37.5 which is 2.67% lower than the open level. therefore over all price movement has been 11.76%. movement intraday, between open and close prices, has been one pence only. over all price movment, between the botom and the top intraday levels, has been 4.5p.

this range was equalled by that of friday, again 4.5 between the top and bottom of the intraday price range, except on friday the candle stick was black, the net sum of price movement was negative, and amounted to three quarters of a penny. today the candle was white.

i would be happier seeing white candles with long bodies and short shadows. what we had today was a white candle with short body. but today was a better day than last friday's where the candle had been black.

now for next ports of call:

- i suggest r36 is behind us now.
- fib shows the next resistance level to be 42. this has already been confirmed as the stock touched this level intraday and then receeded from it. we need to see 42 breached.
- the next hard to crack level is 50 as both fib and the chart shows it to be a resistance level.

finally, good luck to all. something to cheer us all in these grim days.

Archinvest, excelent post summary. AVM The short term chart.


Jan 2003) [Auto] Help
Has risen 243% since the bottom on 28 Nov 2001 at 11.50. Is within a rising trend and continued advance within the current trend is indicated. On reactions back, there is support against the floor of the trend channel. Positive volume balance, i.e. high volume in days of rising prices and low volume in days of falling prices, strengthens the stock further in the short term.
Support and resistance: The stock has support at 12.00

regards Oliver.

goldfinger,

investech is a nice starting place for technical analysis of stock. in particular i like the 3 time span they provide which helps the novice chartist to look at the same chart im many different ways.

the analysis of the stocks on this site are completely automated.this may bring some uniformity and objectivity to the analysis but at the same time the analysis tend to be simplistic and lacking in 'feel', in the way that a good and reliable japanese car would not have the same feel or provide the same feed back as an italian thoroughbread of equal paper specifications.

just look at the final line of their analysis, 'the stock has support at 12!!', how reassuring. what about the support levels of 16 and the other two they have themselves highlighted in green of 28.4 and 34.6! and i have not gone int o fib retracements to highlight numerous other, that may or may not be as substantial, support levels. i have actually worked out 25 support levels for this stock. I may publish them later on request.

Arch, yes your right about the chart. But it does give viewers a general feel for rhe stock. Would you please publish these other 25 support levels. I and I feel others would be very greatfull. Not only that I could show them to my pals on other sites who are holders of the stock.

regards GF.

Avocet to merge???????????. A window of opportunity opens up.

Date : January 30, 2003

Avocet Mining Presented With Window Of Opportunity Through Retirement Of Mike Diemar At Kingsgate.


It is quite good timing for AIM listed Avocet Mining to announce that it has acquired exploration rights over another 5,600 hectares in Malaysia in joint venture with a local partner virtually on the day that Canaccord Capital promoted it to its small cap UK Mining Review. The shares of Avocet have performed well since it rescheduled its debt and got rid of the remnants of its tungsten business and became gold, pure and simple, and now it has embarked on a growth strategy. In March 2002 it acquired an 80 per cent interest in the North Lanut advanced gold exploration project from Newmont and last November bought a 44 per cent stake in the Zeravshan Gold company which is exploiting the Jilau deposit in Tajikistan.

A bit more time is needed before one can assess the brilliance, or otherwise, of these acquisitions. North Lanut should be in production by the year end and quite a lot of work has to be done at Zeravshan as it produced only 10,000 ozs in the first two months since its acquisition. Just the closure of its London office, however, is said to have reduced costs significantly which is just as well as cash costs of production of US$285 are too high to be comfortable. Now Avocet has set itself a target of annual production of 300,000 ounces of gold by 2005 which would take it into the FTSE Gold Index.

The pivot of the company is the Penjom mine in Malaysia which produced 23,990 ounces of gold in the quarter to end December. This took the total for the year to 78,370 ounces so a total of 100,000 ounces is well within reach. Only now, however, with a higher gold price and its debts sorted out, is Avocet in a position to spend some real money on exploration. It is encouraging that Malaysia is its choice as the company has a history of gold mining and Avocet is the only listed company that is producing there. As a result it has excellent relationships with the relevant authorities and so should get first crack at any new exploration prospects. Nor should it be forgotten that it was Malaysia which initiated the idea of the Islamic gold dinar, so gold has a major following. A listing for Avocet on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange would therefore be a PR coup of some magnitude.

The new acreage has a history of alluvial gold mining dating from 200 years ago and continuing sporadically until the 1990s. Someone must have made money out of it as Sungei Luit translates as ‘river of money’ and Avocet clearly wants to repeat the trick. It has similarities to Penjom and could be the first of a number of new properties which the company will acquire on the historic gold belts of Malaysia. In the meantime the company is also extending exploration around Penjom as the current reserves are only sufficient to support mining at the current rate for another three years. Canaccord makes an interesting point, moreover, that the treatment of mineable reserves and resources is not reported in accordance with any recognized code such as IMM or JORC. Penjom is a geologically complex and variable deposit, but now that the company is being taken seriously it should try to conform.

Avocet also has some 80,000 ounces of gold hedged at US$296 which means that it is carrying a mark-to-market loss of around US$5.6 million. Macquarie Bank, the counterparty, has agreed to defer this hedging, but it will have to be dealt with at some stage as it clicks in when Penjom is in its last year of production. The way gold is moving now it might be better to take it on the chin as investors do not like ticking clocks. One problem may be that not all the directors are confident about gold – presumably they have been indoctrinated by Kamal Naqvi at Macquarie who gave a very bearish view of gold recently - and feel that this is a wise form of risk management. Hopefully they will not accumulate any more hedging when they come to develop North Lanut later this year.

Windows of opportunity appear at the least likely times and one has just opened for Avocet with the resignation of Mike Diemar at Kingsgate Consolidated, the Australian company producing gold in Thailand. Mike was the driving force at Kingsgate and he drove the company to success when Australian investors were ignoring projects in Asia. As a result of his efforts Kingsgate became the first sizeable gold mine in Thailand and is expecting to produce 160,000 ounces this year at a cash cost of US$74/oz. This compares with Avocet’s cash costs of US$225/oz at Penjom. A merger of the two companies, as suggested in our other story today, would result in a current producer of 300,000 ounces listed on both AIM and the ASX. It might even have a listing on Bangkok and Kuala Lupur as the leading gold producer in each country. The difficulty would be to get the directors of each company to agree merger terms for what would become a very powerful entity in the Muslim world.


GF

goldfinger, all support levels for avm

you have asked for the king's ransome, here it is:


major levels of supports/rsistances as can be gleaned from the charts.

50, 60, 83, 110, 130, 160 & the peak of 240.



fib provides numerous levels of s/r that may or may not be visible on the chart. below is a comprehensive list

12-50 range : 36, 31, 26
12-60 range : 42, 36, 30
12-110 range : 73, 61, 49
12-130 range : 85, 71, 57
12-160 range : 104, 86, 68
12- 240 range : 153, 1265, 99

pls note that if a level appears in more than one range then this level of s/r is considered more significant.

Your a genious at TA ARCH. Bloody brilliant. Fantastic work. IM now going to as non paid PA man for AVM post these all over the internet.

GF.

goldfinger, avm

first the fun bit!

-what an apt name for someone dealing with 'gold' issues!
-there was a famous latino guitarist in the 70's cald 'manitas de plata', which translated to english reads ' fingers of silver', any relation of yours goldfinger?

now for the lesser fun bit!

i am a coputer programmer self taught. i program in the language named as 'basic'. the name is an acronym. basic has often been used as the programming language for small computers,such as pocket computers, although derivatives of it is used for very advanced programming such as autocad, the engineering drafting software.

i have programmed one of my pocket computers to workout fib retracements as well as percentages. of course one can use spreadsheets to workout these, but i always find these small devises that i keep at an arm's length easier to use and instantly on tap.

charting software often include a visual fib grid that can be applied over the chart and can visually demonstrate the fib retracement as opposed to just providing the figures. with such grids you can see at an instant where the fib retracements lie. but also very importantly how they interact, co-incide or otherwise, with the support/resistance levels in the charts. like i said in my posting above, if a support/resistance level appears both on chart and fibs then the significance of the said level is corroborated. and at times the same fib derived support/resistance level may appear on different chart ranges, or may co-incide with gaps and other features of the charting landscape and by doing so their significance or otherwise further coroborated.

i am willing to post the program here should i see much demand for it from users.

New BROKER COMMENT ON AVM, from one of the BEST.

Beeson Gregory comment:

Gold Play

Investment opportunity

• Randgold and Avocet good value exposure to strong gold price

To gain exposure to the climbing gold price from a London perspective, we
believe that Avocet Mining [AVM], and Randgold Resources [RRS] provide
the best opportunities. Ashanti the largest gold play in London having
restructured their hedge book last year will likely also benefit from the
climbing price, however they are still hedged and have therefore lost some
upside.

Avocet [AVM]: The company is a pure gold play with production from
Indonesia and Malaysia and a good looking project in Tajikistan. The
company has excellent growth prospects and output last year of 100,000
ounces will be surpassed this year with the acquisition of Nelson Resources’
interest in Zeravshan gold mine, and increased milling at Penjom. The
company is well on the road to achieving its target of 300,000 ounces per year
within the next three years.

The acquisition of Zeravashan and the addition of a second ball mill at
Penjom will see the production of gold increase in the second half-year. This
output increase will allow Avocet to exploit the higher gold price. We expect
earnings in the second half to increase by 40% at the present levels but
climbing 5% for each $5 advance in the average gold price. This would give
full year earnings of 2.9p per share and a PE multiple of 11. Thus there is
room for growth in the share price.

The strengthening Rand and Australian dollar are offsetting the climbing
gold price for South African and Australian producers. Neither Avocet nor
Randgold are exposed to these currencies and offer the best value with good
upside potential for investors in London.

Macro thoughts: Gold jumped to a near six year highs on Friday due to
increased safe haven buying on discovery of warheads in Iraq by weapons
inspectors. It will most likely ease today on the more cooperative stance by
Iraq but is unlikely to drop back far.

Gold Fields Mineral Services issued an update to their annual gold survey
last week in which they conjectured an average gold price of $330 with a
possible high of $370 if there was a lengthy war with Iraq. The continued
weakness of the US dollar is also providing support to the rising gold price.
GFMS cites significant increase in investment as one of the factors that has
driven the rise in the gold price since the beginning of last year. They
conservatively estimate that there has been a doubling of investment by
hedge funds and high net worth individuals, from 172 tonnes in 2001 to 417
tonnes in 2002.

The amount of hedging by producers declined by 352 tonnes a key factor in
sustaining the price above $300. Combining this figure with the decline in
production indicates a 10% reduction in physical supply year on year. GFMS
is forecasting further decline in hedging in the first half of 2003.
Weak global economy, continuing dehedging by producers and uncertain
political climate are all strongly supportive of an escalating gold price.ENDS.


GF.

i hear nothing but good things being said about avm, be it media news or points of view expressed. yet the stock has been dropping on daily basis every day of the week last week!

what is depressing is that on many such days the stock opened the day with and up gap but ended up the day closing at a lower level than that of the closing level of the preceeding day. so if you look at a candlestick chart for last week you see a series of black candlesticks. this tells me that market makers were acting positively on the open hoping that the stock will rise only to be faced with weak demand causing them to drop the stock.

adding to this level 36 proved to have been a hard resistance to crack. it was a good day for the stock, so i thought, when it broke through this level with a gap. but the stock has now made an island reversal and closed below level 36.

none of the above would boud well for the stock. and i wounder now when it would stop falling further to find solid enough support and suggest such an act would not be an easy feat to accomplish.

Wirrall,

I am afraid short term I think AVM is a sell, head and shoulders formation shows decline neckline length 43p/36.50p ie 6.50p completed by drop to 34.50p but this support seems breached.

Hourly and Daily MACD looks bearish and worried that daily 50% RSI may be breached.

I am expecting a US$20 drop in gold price over next few weeks so expect AVM to fall to 25p to 29p range.

38.20% Fibo Retracement point around 30.75p, 50% around 27.25p, 61.80% 23.75p

Slightly concerned about twin peaks at 42p

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

after the negative things i said yesterday, lets have a couple of good thins to say:

- the stock opened up today with a a small up gap of 1.5%. if it is to keep up its gains today, then it is possible that the stock has managed to evolve a rising trending channel the support line of which lies along the lines between the last bottom and the bottom created by last friday's closing price.

- i disagree with ashley on the macd dropping. yes the moving average lines were dropping throughout last week. but you can see the faster one is rising up to cross the slow one at high level, this bides well for the stock. remember macd is a lagging indicator. one one to get advance warning is to look at the histogram instead. the latter has been rising from negative territory throughout last week and is about to hit level zero. as histo hits level zero the moving lines cross each other and since these two lines currently lie well above the zero level, then they are bound to cross at well above zero level too. this indicates that momentum continues to exist.

Arch, are we at a market top with AVM considering POG has closed well down on the day from its peak??????????. Your help much appreciated.

GF

goldfinger,

not necessarily.

i was listening to mr lock, a manager of a fund called 'oyster catcher', a bear and devoute elliot wave follower and one whose been accurately forcasting falls in this market for well over a year ago when most were expecting the market to bottom up. mr lock, who is a frequent guest on cnbc, said that gold will remain bullish above $350 pe roz. so we have long to go yet.

additionally, while the war issue remains hanging in the air it is unlikely that gold prices will undergo dramatic drops.

i therefore expect the slight drop in gold price to be a technical retracement.

however the stock appears to have got stuck at its present range. so if i am a holder sitting on over 20% profit i would be contemplating bailing out until a new phase in the development of this stock has evolved. remember a stock spends 80% of its time going nowhere and only some 20% moving up or down.

Arch, many thanks for that.

GF

goldfinger,

the article below regarding gold price movement published in the ft website may be of interest to you.



Overbought gold lines up for pullback
by Vince Heaney in London
Published: February 7 2003 14:54 | Last Updated: February 7 2003 14:54


After years languishing in the lower reaches of investment performance tables, gold has re-emerged into the limelight as a hot commodity.

Reflecting the precious metals resurgence, from a list of 1,862 unit trusts and OEICs the top-performing unit trust over the last one-year, three- years and five-years is the Merrill Lynch Gold and General fund. Over one-year the Merrill fund returned 40.9 per cent, more than double the next best performing fund.

Investors in both the commodity and gold stocks have enjoyed impressive returns, but following a $100 an ounce rally in just over a year, from a technical perspective golds advance is looking overstretched.

After closing at $381.50 an ounce on February 4 the spot price pushed to news highs of $388.50 the following day. However, by the close of business on February 5 the spot price had dipped to $371.75, forming a reversal day. A reversal day is a chart pattern that can indicate an imminent change in the direction of the trend. At a market peak, prices make a new high during the day but close lower. In this instance the wide daily price range on February 5 adds weight to the potential reversal.

An upward-sloping trendline can be drawn beneath the sharp advance in gold since the start of December 2002, which has taken the spot price from $315.75 to this week's high of $388.50. Support from this trendline currently lies at $365, just beneath current close of $371. A reversal pattern followed by a drop back to trendline support suggests investors should tread warily as a larger pullback may be in prospect.

Momentum indicators show that the gold market is in a very overbought condition. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart currently stands at almost 91. The RSI runs from 0 to 100 and values above 80 indicate an overbought market. A value above 90 on the weekly chart has not been seen in the last five years.

If trendline support is breached at $365 investors should look for a correction of the move up from $315.75. A 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement would take the spot price back down to $360.70, a 50 per cent pullback would reach $352.10 and a 61.8 per cent correction would hit $343.50. Beneath the latter level the May 2002 highs offer support just above $330.

I would buy on dips as long as we hold above $330, said Chris Locke of technical consultancy Oystercatcher BV. Mr Locke also identified $330 as an important level in his longer-term view of the market.

I lean towards the long-term bull case for gold but am very wary, he added. Mr Locke follows Elliott Wave Theory, which looks for moves in the direction of the major trend to unfold in five distinct waves.

A five-wave move is nearing completion up from the lows between $270-$280, but the wave structure does not look strongly impulsive. The waves overlap at the beginning of the move which suggests the whole move could be corrective in nature, said Mr Locke.

The jury is still out on some of the more bullish arguments for gold. A monthly close above $398 is needed to confirm the long-term bull case, being the 88.6 per cent Gann retracement of the whole move down from the March 1996 highs at $417.70.

But for now the short-term reversal pattern and the overbought nature of the market suggests a correction is needed before any assault on the $398 level can be attempted.

goldfinger,

and here is another article appearing on the cnn website in the form of reply to an investors question about selling stock and buying gold.


gn up for the Ask the Expert e-mail newsletter


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - I'm considering selling my stocks and investing my money in gold. What do you think of this move?

-- Lucy, San Francisco, Calif.

Not much, Lucy, not much. Oh, I know that when times get scary, people rush to the security of hard assets like gold, and that prices have been booming lately as it appears ever more likely that the U.S. will go to war with Iraq.

Related Articles

Mutual fund guide 2003

Most absurd tax claims

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On the days leading up to Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech outlining the case for war last Wednesday, for example, the price of gold bullion in New York climbed to just under $380 an ounce, it's highest level since 1996.

And gold stocks have also been among the hottest performers in an otherwise dismal market. Through the 12 months ending in early February, for example, Morningstar's Precious Metals fund category (which consists mostly of funds that own gold mining and refinining stocks) was up a stunning 46 percent -- that's right, 46 percent at a time when the S&P 500's total return over the same period was a negative 21 percent.

Yes, but...
So why am I not urging you to unload your stock portfolio now (IMMEDIATELY!) and snap up some gold bullion or gold stocks or funds?

Several reasons.

First, they're notoriously volatile. That's great if you manage to buy them before one of their occasional spikes in price. Obviously, the people who bought gold funds a year ago are congratulating themselves (deservedly or not) for being geniuses.


But if past gold cycles are any indication, people usually start buying only after the runup. Prior to the Gulf War in 1991, for example, gold prices soared to just under $405 an ounce. But people who bought in expectation of further gains were disappointed, as the price of gold began sinking thereafter because investors became convinced the war would be a short one.

Big gains in gold stocks and funds have also lured investors in, only to disappoint them soon after. Gold funds gained more than 90 percent in 1993. But they lost 48 percent over the next five years.

But times are really scary...
Who knows, maybe this time will be different. Maybe gold bullion and gold stocks and funds will continue to post big gains. I wouldn't count on it, though, since gold isn't the type of investment that generates steady gains over time.

Gold funds on fire


Fund Ticker 1-year return
First Eagle Gold SGGDX 65.5%
Van Eck Int'l Investors Gold INIVX 52.4%
Tocqueville Gold TGLDX 45.4%
American Century Global Gold BGEIX 39.5%
Fidelity Select Gold FSAGX 37.6%


*Returns through Feb. 5, 2003
Source: Morningstar, Inc.

It tends to give its gains in spurts with some extended down periods in between. Buy in at a high, and you can spend a long time waiting to get back to even. Of course, maybe you'll be smart enough to know when to jump in and then get out at the right time. But to my mind, that strategy is more akin to speculating than investing.

I suppose you can make a case for moving a bit of your money into gold -- say, maybe 5 percent or so. The rationale for doing that is that gold prices move in sync with stock prices. So even though gold itself is highly volatile, adding some to your stock portfolio can lower your portfolio's overall volatility because stocks and gold don't zig and zag at the same time.


But frankly, I'm not a big fan of using gold as a diversifier because I think you can find other investments that provide decent diversification but with better long-term return prospects than gold. And if I did use gold to increase my portfolio's diversity, I'd use gold stocks or, better yet, gold mutual funds, not gold bullion, which has higher transaction costs that cut into your gains (assuming you have gains).

So if you want to join the gold rush, my advice is keep your investment small, and stick to gold mutual funds. And don't forget that the same forces that drive up gold prices and gold stocks quickly, can push them down just as fast.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Walter Updegrave is a senior editor at MONEY Magazine and is the author of "Investing for the Financially Challenged." He can be seen regularly Monday mornings at 7:40 am on CNNfn.

avm,

down this morning, but gold price is up some $3/oz, so expect the avm price to improve. and while the situation in iraq remains unresolved, expect old price to rise further. i understand the next targer is $395/oz.

We seem to have had a few bad days, Arch. Will be asking Evil Knevil this evening where he thinks POG is going. Will give replt wed teatime.

regs GF.

heard chris lock this morning on cnbc: below 330 is bearish, above 398 is bullish. there has been a slight improvement in the pog and avm responded by rising a few percentage point having opened the day in the red.

Well Evil is more Bullish on Gold than he as ever been. Says the low POG price is a great opportunity to buy. Hes still looking at POG at $750 long term.
Feels dollar will weaken even further. When POG gos up he feels it will really take off.

GF.

good news goldfinger. and if this is correct then the current drops have been none other than atechnical corrections. yesterday gold rose be some $4.5 but as and avm followed in sympaty rising soem 3.5%. as i write, however, gold is down by over $5.

i would have thought as war gets closer the rush for gold wil intensify and stock sell off. the opposite appears to have happened. mind the usa market has another 3.5 hours to run during which anything may happen.

have just found out that a massive seller has just been cleaned out and that the shares have gone to a very good home , that must be one of the main reasons for depressing the share price past couple of weeks ,should be bullish from now , price ticked up after sales .

Yes BUD its good to see it ticking back up to 35p. There is speculation that the deal was a matched trade and that the buyer is indeed another Gold miner.

Do you feel that we could be on for a merger or a takeover?.
GF

avm,

the stage has been set for better things to come!

up today by over 10%. the dojji candlestick of yesterday status as a patteren reversal has been confirmed.

macd has touched zero on its way up. importantly, there has been a divergence between the histogram and the price action of late. the histo rose as the price went down. and the same histogram has plotted a bullish w.

sotchs and rsi are not particularly busslis as they stand at about mid range and pointing near flat.

all moving averages are heading up. 9 day sma has crossed over 18 day sma.

there has been a danger of head and shoulders developing but this has now gone. instead there appears to be the development of a rising trend. i say appear to be as it is early in the day to confirm whether this trend is going to develop or not. the situation will become clearer by the end of this week.

in the event that this trend is confirmed then the next target for this stock would be around the 40+ mark, depending on the true morphology of the trend.

last but not least, pog is up again.

Fingers crossed Arch.

GF.

.

Hammer Bottom/Dragonfly Doji on Friday:-

Nows the time to be back in Gold stocks. POG at 7 week high last night. Analysts around the world predicting gold will see new highs.

AVM the perfect play on POG at its low price of 26p. Now time to get in at these low levels.G

i`m in already and very disappointed so far, perhaps it will go now.

"i`m in already and very disappointed so far"

GOOD, I hope you are really pieved, preferably really pissed off!

However until it breaks 26.50p you are completely stuffed IMHO

lolol!(;-)0

`Mr.Ashley James posting at 4.54 am , totally bombed,
what a weird bloke.

Hello Ashley. It is Saturday night [edited] I thought I would try to re-establish friendly relations.

How is it going with you? What are your bright ideas? I see Redstone is on the up and TIG too.

I have gone a bundle on the gold shares viz. AVM HIF HEV HPD REI DROOY AU MDG and HMY. Any thoughts? There seems to be quite a buzz around HIF. Sold out my POG for a goodish (well reasonable) profit.

Good old CER, moving now, what a turn up eh?

Ps I was banned off moneyam for "HTML abuse" apparently but have been reinstated after eating some humble pie and promising to be good, which indeed I will be.

Yours etc

Pat.

Patrick,

How are you, good to see you here!

Andy. (ahkeen on ADVFN)

BTW what did you do to be banned form "html abuse"?

Hi Andy. Re earlier qs no richer than I was 6 months ago! I came on to this thread to see if the old Ashley magic would work again!

[deleted in the interests of niceness]

Er Andy it's alarmingly simple. You put a particular HTML tag inside the "carrots" <> if that shows. All subsequent text appears at the top of the thread (at least on ADVFN & moneyam).

Patrick,

Ok I didn't know that!

Ashley is not too active on here at present, at least in comparison to ADVFN, but this BB is still developing, and currently lacks volume of discussion threads.

I have noticed an increase in discussion and posters here in the last couple of weeks, and ADVFN posters are gradually coming over here.

Resource threads are rare at the moment, but I guess they too will start up once there is a greater volume of posters.

Andy.

Well golds going up but this one hasnt started yet. A few more days with the Dow in the doldrums will get it moving.G

Avocet bags Tajik gold bargain

By: Ken Gooding

Mineweb 1997-2003


LONDON – The International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank’s commercial lending arm, has accepted a modest $400,000 from AIM listed Avocet Mining (LSE:AVM) in exchange for 5 percent of Zeravshan Gold Company (ZGC) in Tajikistan, as well as $10.7m of loans made to ZGC.
Avocet acquired its first 44 percent of ZGC from Nelson Resources, a Canadian company that spent about US$40m on the mining complex since 1994. Production started two years later and since then the mine has produced 500,000 ounces of gold from an open pit at the Jilau deposit. ZGC is at present producing at an annual rate of between 60,000 and 70,000 ounces.

In all, Avocet has paid the equivalent of less than $6m for control of a $40m mining operation and the associated $90m of debt. And it had to stump up less than $2m in cash.

This is all part of Avocet’s strategy to turn itself into a “pure” gold company producing about 300,000 ounces a year by 2006. The company is also making headway again towards disposal of its tungsten business – it first listed in London in 1996 with the claim it was the world’s biggest producer of tungsten.

Avocet now owns 49 percent of ZGC as well as all the Tajik gold miner’s external debt of over $90m. It also has the right to 90 percent of ZGC’s cash flow and management control. Avocet has started negotiations with the Tajik government, which owns the rest of ZGC, in the hope of restructuring the debt. Jonathan Henry, Avocet’s finance director, says he hopes the restructuring will raise his company’s holding in ZGC to 75 percent and perhaps also give Avocet some tax holidays.

Nelson accepted $1.45m cash and 14m Avocet shares in exchange for its stake and share of the debt in ZGC. That gives it 17.6 percent of Avocet, valued today at 3.5m – but Nelson has undertaken not to dispose of any of the shares until November this year at the earliest.

So why are the IFC and Nelson wanting to quit? The main reason is that Jilau is a high cost operation with cash costs of $285/oz. As Henry says, it is cash-flow break even on the mining side but money has to be spent on capital projects and exploration. Avocet can cope with this as it is generating plenty of cash from its Penjom gold mine in Malaysia where cash costs are about $200/oz and output is over 100,000oz a year.

Avocet reckons it can increase ZGC’s annual output to about 100,000oz and cut costs, perhaps by introducing a heap leach operation. And, looking further forward, ZGC also has the rights over 3,000 sq. kms in the region surrounding Jilau where past Soviet exploration identified numerous gold deposits containing more than 8m ounces, including two partly developed underground mines. Between 2m and 3m ounces in the measured, indicated and inferred categories have been identified in these underground mines but the ore has very difficult and complex metallurgy. Avocet is considering trying a biox pilot plant to treat the ore.

Henry says Avocet is confident of meeting the 300,000oz a year target it has set itself as the company expects, from the middle of next year, to be producing another 50,000 to 60,000oz from the North Lanut project in North Sulawesi, Indonesia, at cash costs of $150/oz. North Lanut was acquired from Newmont and Avocet suggests it could be brought into operation at a cost of $10m with an initial mine life of five to six years.

Avocet, which nearly went bust in 2001 because of production problems at the Penjom mine and low tungsten prices, is quite capable of financing North Lanut itself but is now in the fortunate position of being able to pick and choose the method of funding, Henry insists. The options include raising more equity to strengthen the balance sheet but any paper transaction is ruled out at present because the directors feel Avocet’s shares are undervalued at 25.25p today. The price has been down to 12p in the past 12 months but also they have traded at 43.5p.

Avocet is confident of finding more mineable gold on the 40 sq mile North Lanut concession area but for the time being is concentrating on getting the initial output flowing.

More importantly, for investors, the company is also confident that it can find more gold to extend the present life of its cash generating Penjom mine from the present four to five years.

Meanwhile, getting rid of the tungsten operations is proving to be more difficult than Avocet first hoped. Some operations have been disposed of but Avocet is left with the Panasqueira tungsten mine in Portugal, owned by Avocet's wholly owned Portuguese subsidiary, Beralt Tin & Wolfram, and a 10.6 percent interest in the Lermontov mine, located in the Russian Far East.

Avocet hoped to sell these to Salish Ventures, a Canadian company, in exchange for shares representing less than 50 percent of Salish and with the intention of eventually cutting the holding below 20 percent. This deal fell apart and. instead, Avocet has ended up with about 75 percent of Salish and has had to continue to provide management for the tungsten business as well as providing US$275,000 of cash.

Henry says his company decided to push ahead with the revised Salish deal because “it is easier to divest a listed entity.” Salish is listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange and is changing its name to Primary Metals Inc. He says there might be someone willing to do a deal because Beralt, although loss-making at present, holds a key position in the tungsten market. “And we are talking to a number of interested parties.G

Record Production Figures From Principle Mine.

Avocet Mining PLC
09 May 200


FOURTH QUARTER GOLD PRODUCTION


Avocet Mining is pleased to announce fourth quarter gold production of 46,240
ounces, bringing the total for the financial year ended 31 March, 2003 to
134,581 ounces.


Gold production from Penjom in Malaysia amounted to 30,560 ounces for the fourth
quarter bringing Penjom's total production for the financial year to a new
annual record of 108,905 ounces. Total cash costs at Penjom are estimated to be
US$190/oz for the fourth quarter and US$204/oz for the financial year (2002:
US$239/oz and US$225/oz respectively).



Production from Zeravshan Gold Company (ZGC) in Tajikistan for the fourth
quarter was 15,680 ounces, bringing total production for the five months since
acquisition to 25,675 ounces. Total cash costs at ZGC are estimated to be US$278
/oz for the fourth quarter and US$284/oz for the five months since acquisition.



Avocet is a mining company listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of
the London Stock Exchange. The company's principal activities are gold mining
and exploration in Malaysia (as owner of the Penjom mine, the country's largest
gold producer), Tajikistan (as 49% owner and operator of the Zeravshan Gold
Company, Tajikistan's principal gold mine), and Indonesia (where it has an
advanced stage gold exploration property in North Sulawesi, currently at the
feasibility stage).









__________________________________________________________________________________________________

For further information please contact:

Avocet Mining PLC 4C Communications Ltd

John Catchpole (Chief Executive) Carina Corbett

Jonathan Henry (Finance Director) 020 8949 7171

020 7907 9000 020 7907 4761


www.avocet.co.uk
--------------------------


This information is provided by RNS

Buys flying in on this one and price already up 7%.

Dont miss the boat.G

LOL

Just done a review of what profit I feel Avocet will make after the production figures produced this morning and its quite an outstanding figure.
I have been slightly conservative, using a gold price of $310. I get the following:

Penjom = 108905*$116 = $11,543,930
Zerevashan = 25675*$26 = $667550

Total = $12,211,480 or 7,592,880

Pretty darn impressive for a company capitalised at just 17m!.

When N.Lanut comes on stream, you can add the following to your calculation :

50K production per annum @ cost of $150/oz. = $7.5m profit or 4.68m

(and that's taking gold @ just $300/oz !)

That then gives total pre-tax of near on $20m or 12m !!.

N Lanut will not be in this years account though.

G

from memory i think avm have hedged a proportion of this years production at 285$ - $310 might not be a bad average to have used. Depends how much AVM have decided to hedge this year

A company which is way undervalued in my opinion. Should be at least 45p to 50p based on its latest procution figures for the year.G

Analysts Predictions.


Analyst Forecast
AVOCET MINING PLC (AVM.L)

CONSENSUS RECOMMENDATION.


OUTPERFORM.



Consensus Next Earnings Company Fiscal Last
Recommendation (approx.) Year End Month Updated
Outperform 12-Nov-03 March 13-May-03




CONSENSUS ESTIMATES TRENDS


Current 1 Week
Ago 4 Weeks
Ago 8 Weeks
Ago 13 Weeks
Ago
Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03
Year Ending Mar-04
Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Year Ending Mar-04
Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03
Year Ending Mar-04
Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03
Year Ending Mar-04

Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence



ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS AND REVISIONS


1-5 Linear Scale Current As of 4
Weeks Ago As of 8
Weeks Ago As of 13
Weeks Ago
(1) Buy 1 1 1 1
(2) Outperform 0 0 0 0
(3) Hold 1 1 1 1
(4) Underperform 0 0 0 0
(5) Sell 0 0 0 0
Mean Rating 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00




CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ANALYSIS


# of
Ests. Median
Est. High
Est. Low
Est. 1 Year
Ago
Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03 25.00
Year Ending Mar-04
Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03 1 1.90 1.90 1.90 4.80
Year Ending Mar-04
Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03 4.50
Year Ending Mar-04
Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03 0.00
Year Ending Mar-04

Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence



HISTORICAL SURPRISES


Estimate vs. Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise (%)
Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 26.00 26.00 --
Year Ending Mar-01 26.00 25.00 -1.00 -3.85
Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 1.44 1.44 --
Year Ending Mar-01 2.60 0.20 -2.40 -92.31
Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 0.94 0.94 --
Year Ending Mar-01 1.70 0.19 -1.51 -88.82
Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 0.00 0.00 --
Year Ending Mar-01 0.00 0.00 0.00 --

Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence



ESTIMATE REVISIONS SUMMARY


Number of Estimate Revisions Last Week Last 4 Weeks
Revised Up Revised Down Revised Up Revised Down
Earnings
Year Ending Mar-03 0 0 0 0
Year Ending Mar-04 0 0 0 0


G

I reckon this thing hit its peak at 37p when I bgt. in, barring another hike in the pog eg we attack Saudi or similar gut wrenching event, I see it rangebound


but------------!!!!!!!

When working out profit figures for this - or any mining company - beware of using cash costs.

If Ashley taught me anything at all (hi, Ash!) it's to find out what true production costs are and work on them.....however, most companies fight shy of publishing true costs, and only quote cash. There can be a HUGE difference.

POG now just shy of $355. Noted above re- to costs. This company will come out with around a 7.5 million profit and that is very conservative.G

Wendypops,

Hi trying to become a bit of a DJIA specialist so not really concentrating on AVM, but think this will hit 50p to 65p by end March to May 2004 or maybe sooner think this ABC will take us to 40p, believe very quickly when 30.50p pops.

AVM production costs high which gives you leverage if you can see a 6500 DJIA or 6000 DJIA by October, and gold above US$400

Watch gearing, watch Canacord interest, otherwise well boring but potentially hell of a lot safer than Minnie IMHO, saying which Malaysia and Kazakhstan?

Oh well who cares all I care about is the chart nowadays. (;-)0

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

Goldfinger,

AVM starting to break up now, needs to break 31p really for next stage 36p/36.50p.

1:50PM Gold futures close with a nearly $10 gain ($XAU, $GOX, HMY, GG) by Myra P. Saefong
Gold futures closed the session with a nearly $10-an-ounce gain as concerns about the dollar continued to keep investor interest in the precious metal high. June gold closed at $364.40 an ounce, up $9.50. Metals indexes are following suit, with the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) and CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) both up more than 3 percent. Shares of Goldcorp (GG) are up 6.4 percent to $11.68 and Harmony Gold (HMY) are up 5.5 percent at $13.45.

Gold on another 12345 break out, break above US$370 or triple bottom US$365 with break from support around US$367.50 will confirm IMHO

AVM has broken above 31p res, no surprises there

Gold has hit US$373.50 today, need I say more.

Ash, could be in for a good day Thursday. Many thanks for the charts much appreciated.G

Hi Ash. Are you "Investorglobe"? I think you are matey. I have noticed your ramping efforts vis-a-vis Petrel and Gresham. Desperate or what?

I put these things on moneyam where no-one will read them.

Love and kisses

Pat

No, nor do I have a clue who you are talking about you vile little man.

Petrel, no idea,post Iraq War Gresham never heard of it.
I only post on MoneyAM now, I hide my true identity with Mr Ashley James and Ash log ons, mainly in the Traders Room where people like you are err not welcome (:-)0

Patrick,

Surerly Petrel is a very risky punt given the turmoil in Iraq?
I'm sure this isn't Ash's style at all.

I think you're totally wrong with "investorglobe", if Ash has an id on ADVFN now, I could certainly guess closer that that! (Although I'm sure he hasn't -:)

have a good weekend!

Ashley is FAR too vain to post under anything other than his own name!

8-)

Wendy,

Why no tput your email address in "my account" so that users can email you.

Your email address is NOT released to others, but their mails can reach you.
I think it's a really good idea!

Andy.

Hello again Ashley. This is why I thought you were ADVFN's "InterGlobe" (EDIT: oho not investorglobe -- room for denial here?)

From this very thread on moneyam

http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/ShowPostList?fID=1&tID=24&from=64

Mr Ashley James - 19 May'03 - 19:08 - 64 of 72

1:50PM Gold futures close with a nearly $10 gain ($XAU, $GOX, HMY, GG) by Myra P. Saefong
Gold futures closed the session with a nearly $10-an-ounce gain as concerns about the dollar continued to keep investor interest in the precious metal high. June gold closed at $364.40 an ounce, up $9.50. Metals indexes are following suit, with the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) and CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) both up more than 3 percent. Shares of Goldcorp (GG) are up 6.4 percent to $11.68 and Harmony Gold (HMY) are up 5.5 percent at $13.45.

------------------------

From ADVFN CMR "New High by Year-End?" thread

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=955283&from=3445

InterGlobe - 19 May'03 - 18:55 - 3445 of 3569

1:50PM Gold futures close with a nearly $10 gain ($XAU, $GOX, HMY, GG) by Myra P. Saefong
Gold futures closed the session with a nearly $10-an-ounce gain as concerns about the dollar continued to keep investor interest in the precious metal high. June gold closed at $364.40 an ounce, up $9.50. Metals indexes are following suit, with the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) and CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) both up more than 3 percent. Shares of Goldcorp (GG) are up 6.4 percent to $11.68 and Harmony Gold (HMY) are up 5.5 percent at $13.45.

--------------------------------------------------------

There might be another explanation (than that you and InterGlobe are the same) but if so I'd like to hear it. Anyway it's nice to see some of the old gang here etc etc.

If you can believe it, I am still inclined to be friendly disposed Ash, not a mortal enemy or anything ... just like to know what is going on

(congrats on ur GHT success -- oh sorry that was Interglobe!)

Regards

Pat

PAtrick,

two posters possessing ESP perhaps?

An amazing similarity I must admit,I'm sure Ashley will reply in due course!

I'm sure all posters on AM have id's on ADVFN, although some won't admit to it! I still post as ahkeen there, but there again I always did use that name.

Patrick Miles,

I no longer post on ADVFN, seeing as post was a copy and paste from Bigcharts, really no surprises that other users had access to this data.

Copy and paste perhaps?

Lawdy, lawdy, there is one born every minute.

Well every village needs one

(;-)

Ash

PS We are all out to get YOU!

interglobe is citytrader boy /m1 connection etc -

Why the hell are we going on about this re-personalities lets stop the crap and get on with talking about making money. That includes all.

I hear AVM results are out second half of July. G

goldfinger,

Any thoughts on what they're likely to be?

On the one hand AVM looks like a decent investment opportunity, with a reasonable degree of risk attached, (which is ok given the potential reward), but I always have a nagging doubt as to why the market doesn't see the potential in this share.

Do you have any ideas why?

Andy.

Andy, the situation is very different I feel now from what we faced in March when the Bear market was still growling and Bulls were looking for an alternative investment ie, Gold. Now that we are seeing this Bull rally investors money is going into general stocks.

No fears though as I feel AVM are on for 7.5 million profit and that could turn out to be very conservative. I feel we will see this one rise up to results and after.

By the way Zak Mir TA specialist is very bullish on Gold and thinks we will hit $400 per ounce. G

Goldfinger,

I second that I see Gold breaking US$400 by end of July, and possibly hitting far above that by 10th October 2003, possibly even the US$850 after Anwar Sadat was killed.

Mad, we will see.

Cheers

Ash

The POG is knackered by the dollars slide, and the next move on this co. is down big time, having them and watching them for the last 6 months doing nothing during the times when gold peaked on several occasions has convinced me they are a hopeless case, next time they peak a little is the time to dump- if it happens.
HOPELESS SHARE.

Well thats what these boards are for Sequestor Free speech, but I think Ill put my money behind Ashley. Up Up and Onwards from here. G

Hope you are right but its hopes`triumph over experience i`m afraid

good luck anyway

Sequestor,

I hardly think a run from 12p to 42p on the back of a gold rise from US$305 or US$320 to US$380 is exactly not highly geared to the gold price, by my calculations AVM moves roughly 1 penny with every US$2.50 on the gold price minimum or 1 penny with every US$2.00 on the gold price on average.

If AVM was worth 42p on a spike to US$380, at US$360, logically the price should be 37p/38p IMHO



I therefore argue AVM is trading at a discount of at least 19%/21% currently, arguably far more as a high cost producer benefits exponentially from gold price rises to the bottom line.

Sumary find any other UK Listed gold producer, ie currently producing large amounts of gold and in expansion mode with a market capitalisation of only 20,040,000!

The above numbers do not even take into account any expansion in production or profits as a result.

The bottom line to me is that once AVM exceeds a market cap of US$50m/30.45m at ROE US$1.642=1.00 I expect the institutions to leap on board and shareprice progression to be rapid, back no doubt towards previous highs of 240p would not surprise me.



I therefore think the clever ones will be those that obtain a position sub 45p/46p personally.

I WAS licking my lips in anticipation Ash,after reading your last post, but I then took a look at the price, down again and my mouth went dry agin, still
I won`t sell, more out of cussedness than common sense, strange how the lure of gold makes fools of some men.

Sequestor,

Because the trading professionals and market makers read these BBs like hawks, it is often a good idea when you want to take a position to post some bullish information, knowing they go short before they go long.

It is like taking candy off a baby, I want cheap stock, they want to screw the punters.

LOL!

Do the numbers before I post them at a valuation of US$1000 per toz of annual production and profits on a US$204 cash production cost

Avocet Mining PLC
09 May 2003







FOURTH QUARTER GOLD PRODUCTION





Avocet Mining is pleased to announce fourth quarter gold production of 46,240
ounces, bringing the total for the financial year ended 31 March, 2003 to
134,581 ounces.



Gold production from Penjom in Malaysia amounted to 30,560 ounces for the fourth
quarter bringing Penjom's total production for the financial year to a new
annual record of 108,905 ounces. Total cash costs at Penjom are estimated to be
US$190/oz for the fourth quarter and US$204/oz for the financial year (2002:
US$239/oz and US$225/oz respectively).



Production from Zeravshan Gold Company (ZGC) in Tajikistan for the fourth
quarter was 15,680 ounces, bringing total production for the five months since
acquisition to 25,675 ounces. Total cash costs at ZGC are estimated to be US$278
/oz for the fourth quarter and US$284/oz for the five months since acquisition.



Avocet is a mining company listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of
the London Stock Exchange. The company's principal activities are gold mining
and exploration in Malaysia (as owner of the Penjom mine, the country's largest
gold producer), Tajikistan (as 49% owner and operator of the Zeravshan Gold
Company, Tajikistan's principal gold mine), and Indonesia (where it has an
advanced stage gold exploration property in North Sulawesi, currently at the
feasibility stage).









__________________________________________________________________________________________________

For further information please contact:

Avocet Mining PLC 4C Communications Ltd

John Catchpole (Chief Executive) Carina Corbett

Jonathan Henry (Finance Director) 020 8949 7171

020 7907 9000 020 7907 4761


www.avocet.co.uk
--------------------------


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

sound job

cheers Ash.

Just so you know

Ashley is Sequestor. He makes up imaginary friends, like enq on ADVFN's PET thread.

I AM UR FREND ASH. This will be proved some day

Pat -

You really are up the wrong tree here, and on the GHT thread elsewhere.

The raft of aliases are indeed all one person - that which used to be known as City Trader Boy. They are not Ashley. The syntax is a dead giveaway, as always. Plus the fact that Ash has a braincell or two more than the multiple-headed-hydra.

Several resource stocks and GHT are presently the subject of this person's attention. With the possible exception of AVM, Ashley lost interest in resource stocks many months ago, and certainly wouldn't be giving any credence to the prospects of Petrel Resources!

pwmiles,
I don`t think Ash will be too pleased about that comparison.

Wendy,

LOL!

"Plus the fact that Ash has a braincell or two more than the multiple-headed-hydra"

I'm sure there's a compliment just bursting to get out of that statement!

Andy.

You might think that, Andy - I couldn't possibly comment.....

LOL

hmmmmm!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for comments Wendy Andy and all

Guess you are right Wendy. City Trader Boy, Backwardation, Bankside etc never came across quite the same as Ash

But Ash is InterGlobe (reckless ramper of Petrel on ADVFN)! I'll stand by that.

Best wishes

Thanks again for comments

Short interview.

Q. Hello Mr Miles. So what got you interested in gold?

A. Er.. I used to read this stuff on bulletin boards... round about January a year and a bit ago

Q. I see. Any particular shares?

A. Celtic Resources, Bema Gold...

Q. Your own selections?

A. No there was this bloke Ashley...

Q. I see. And did you ever discover any gold shares by yourself?

A. Yes! Peter Hambro! Brilliant! (wish I hadn't sold it for a pound less than it is today). Mind you Ashley said it was another ZOX

Q. Never mind Ashley. Any others?

A. Yes Avocet! Bought at 18p last June. Ashley wasn't too keen though. I ended up selling at 12, what a fool! Bought again at 30, sold at 37. Well I'm in now at 28 breakeven!

Q. Good luck Mr Miles

Sorry, Pat - you are wrong. Interglobe is not Ashley James.

Interglobe is City Trader Boy, Bankside Investments, etc etc. Suspect he is also M1Connection and a number of others. He even answers to 'Banksy' on some threads....

I stand by my earlier statement, which Andy interpreted as approaching a compliment.....not even ASHLEY would currently be promoting Petrel! It's a crock. At least Ashley's plays had perceiveable value - PET has none.

And whilst I think of it, on the subject of IDs, etc:

The person registered here on Money AM as 'wdurham' (my ADVFN ID) is absolutely nothing to do with me. I found a post with that ID while browsing here yesterday, and thought: 'I don't remember posting that?!'. Then I realised it wasn't me at all. I registered here with the same name I now use on Mike Walters and FYB, which is 'Wendy D'. On iii I am Wendy Durham. ADVFN is the only site I use regularly where I still use the old 'wdurham' ID.

There may of course be a William or Winifred Durham quite legitimately registered here, as it is not an uncommon name - just remember it is not me.

Ok Winifred!

ho ho Andy :)

Thanks Wendy, I am sure you are right. Ash must have absent-mindedly copied that dull little cbsmarketwatch piece from Interglobe (best guess).

Ash reads Interglobe and Interglobe reads Ash by the looks of it (considering a rash of anti-me pieces posted by Interglobe on ADVFN immediately following my last exposhere). However, I will now give up on this ID sleuthing.

Pat.

Patrick,

There are certainly a couple of "groups" of id's on ADVFN that you could look out for!

Dont tempt me Andy!

POG down to 353 but yanks still think its going to go through the roof. Strange situation. G

Hi G.

In all the blizzard of newsflow relatively little importance has been given to the Freddie Mac FRE management shakeout and SEC probe. Its the No.2 mortgage backed bond seller (after Fannie Mae FNM).

Criminal investigation in train...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030611/financial_freddiemac_3.html

This is a Weds report after the Tue one about the SEC probe and the Mon dismissal of CEO and others.

This news seems to be trickling out in planned fashion... everyones been saying the mortgage bonds are the shakiest part of the Fed liquidity injection machine... in time (not very long) it will set the dollar off down again & be good for gold IMHO.

Regards Pat

http://www.mips1.net/MGLdn.nsf/Current/8525690B0032142042256DD700293F67?OpenDocument

Tipped in the Independant today.............

From today's Independent:
Avocet Mining was in demand, rising 3.5p to 77.5p, on talk that gold production at its Malaysian operations is running well ahead of internal estimates. Gossips reckon current market forecasts on Avocet may prove to be far too conservative

cheers GF.

AVM rising strongly today boosted buy the strength of the dollar and recent news signifting more reserves than first thought and the benefit on profits and revenues from leeching. Buys at 165000 more than doubled sells at 78000, should show strength again tomorrow as gold stocks become the vogue once more.

ehall,

AVM has been oversold, IMHO, and is now retracing towards a fairer value, and I'm happy to hold for the long term, as I feel they will soon become a 200,000 oz per year producer.

And don't forget AIM stocks held for over two years only attract 10% CGT!

ttt

results out on wednesday.............think this will go a lot higher than current price

these shares are going to go over 1 soon, IMHO. If u got on board when i told u, u would have made a nice wee profit already

up again today.........nice

AVM up again today.........hope u guys and gals bought some.

Gold back on rise too.......heading towards 450/oz this time i feel

and up again already. keep buying everyone, this is a wee baby that no-one talks about

Didnt move today but nicely up over the last week and with POG remaining in the $420s this one should move further north.

cheers GF.

if u r back in this goldfinger, u must have wished u didnt sell when it hit 60p and u thought it would fall further.

the gold shares are a long term hold IMHO, not a short term thing to hold onto

Scottie,

I agree, but if your gold shares are trading sideways, why not sell, and put your money in some stocks going up?

I did, and I now have a new position in AVM, and my funds did well whilst they were "out" of AVM!

I think we will be over the 100p mark soon.

Both methods work guys. Lets keep the fingers crossed these go up and up.

cheers Gf.

Nice move back up again today. Hoping these will really rip after the US elections. 2 massive budget deficits in the US can only mean one thing, a run on the dollar (devaluation) and POG moving upwards.

cheers GF.

chart indicates push up to about 110p anyway and probably 160p ish medium term

Just put the price up 1p with my 10,000 buy.

It as dropped a little but buys bigger than sells.

cheers GF.

POG now back up to $420 levels. Should see some positive movement.

cheers GF.

Some excelent stats on this one, note the historic P/E of 13.6 moving down to a forward P/E of only 8.1. Of course with Mining companies NAV is very important but the P/E of a profitable company should not be ignored and this one is very cheap, very cheap indeed.

http://companyresearch.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/digital/security.cgi?username=1038899&ac=7019701&csi=10895

cheers GF.

Details above should be............................

http://companyresearch.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/digital/security.cgi?username=1038899&ac=7019701&csi=10895

cheers GF

TSG and POG up but not AVM why?

Goldfinger, have you bought into TSG yet?

No aldwickk not yet, still waiting to see how interest rates go in the US.

cheers GF.

See how small miners are rising.

Time to take a look at the rest in the sector.

Scvotinvestor was right with this one and must be quids in already.

cheers GF, Well done SI. Hoping you have made a fortune.

Through the 100p mark, lets hope it stays there and moves further north.

Cheers GF.

yes GF, Avocet should go further north in short and medium term IMHO. Resistance might be around 110p but if u hold on, i'm pretty sure medium term will bring around 160p or so.

I hold AVM and OXS for medium / long term so have not been put off by retraces from time to tme so far.

Its good t see one of my shares is doing well.....not that many are doing that great this year.

Yeah, i'm just about 50% up on this so am nice and calm on this one ATM

Superb SI.

Added to my position in these last week. Now hold 7 gold juniors. Think the speculators on oil will jump ship to gold on the ever rising POG.

cheers GF.

GF,

Not too sure about that, oil stocks are still doing ok, as indeed are gold stocks.

The POG is rising, but even if the price of a barrel of oil is falling, there is still IMHO considerable potential upside in the explorers if they strike oil.

I see an argument for having a mix of the two, as I myself have.

Point taken Andy but I see it this way, we are on the downward side of the oil price cycle now and are just in the last 2 weeks at the bottom of the upward Gold price cycle.

Sure oil plays which are not marginal and have good strikes will still perform well, but I think the majority of the speculators who were on Gold stocks early this year and jumped onto oil will now jump back across.

cheers GF.

>> GF

I have to say that your thoughts on shares are generally s*hit hot, but I think you are missing a trick here! The bottom line is that oil is getting scarce - and the oil companies know it. Oil shares are definately not the only game in town - would you buy a forest if they were about to cut down all the trees? But there is a simple supply and demand issue here.

Commodities (generally) are rising partly because there is a vacuum - ie coal mining stocks (what is going to replace the oil when it runs out) but also things like silver and platinum are rising because they are crucial components in the developments of things like fuel and hydrogen cells. Check out Biofuels (up over 100% over the last month). Gold is more of a play on the falling dollar (and its potential as a future reserve currency)!

At the end of the day it is all oil driven IMHO. Check out drydipstick.com

rgrds
gk

Should get another leg up here.

cheers GF.

Now pog s back up buyers should come in.

cheers GF.

Avocet Mining PLC
14 December 2004

AVOCET MINING PLC

AVOCET EXPANDS ITS GOLD PORTFOLIO IN INDONESIA

Avocet Mining PLC ('the Company') has completed a joint venture agreement ('JVA
') to earn a 51% interest in an Indonesian company, PT Iriana Mutiara Idenburg
('PT IMI'). PT IMI holds a 6th generation Contract of Work ('CoW') with the
Government of the Republic of Indonesia.

The CoW includes exploration and mining rights over 108,600 hectares
(approximately 420 square miles) in the Idenburg area of Papua Province
(formally Irian Jaya) on the island of New Guinea. New Guinea hosts some of the
world's largest gold deposits, including multi-million ounce reserves at the
Grasberg and Porgera mines.

The terms of the JVA are such that the Company has paid US$50,000 cash on
signing and will earn its 51% interest after expenditures on exploration and
development total US$2.5 million within a two year timeframe. The Company has
already spent US$377,400 on due diligence work that will count towards the
earn-in expenditure.

The CoW lies in a low mountain range some 120 kilometres to the south of the
provincial capital of Jayapura, which is situated on the northern coast. During
due diligence work over the last nine months, the Company's geological team has
identified three primary drilling targets at Bermol, Mafi, and Kali Sua Sinta.
The rapid rate of discovery and relatively unexplored nature of the CoW
highlights the potential for further significant discoveries through systematic
exploration.

The Company will initially focus on Kali Sua Sinta where it has identified
several zones of high-grade mineralisation within a 400 metres strike length and
500 metres width. This is located within a shear zone that extends for at least
five kilometres. Table 1 summarises results from surface channel sampling at
Kali Sua Sinta which has returned gold grades at surface as high as 73 g/t.
These assays reflect in situ grades and there is no evidence of supergene
enrichment. Initial metallurgical test work (bottle roll tests) indicates gold
recoveries exceeding 95%. The Company plans to commence drilling at Kali Sua
Sinta in the first half of 2005 with the initial objective of identifying a
minimum gold resource of 500,000 ounces in the area's near surface, high grade
zones.

The Bermol and Mafi prospects represent the next generation of targets within
the CoW. Both lie on an under-explored, fifteen-kilometre long structure.
Previous channel sampling at Bermol returned 8m at 5.81 g/t Au, 6m at 8.42 g/t
Au, 8m at 5.78 g/t Au and 4m at 19.4 g/t Au. Scout drilling at Mafi intersected
up to 12.6m at 8.00 g/t Au.

Avocet is a mining company listed on the AIM market of the London Stock
Exchange. The Company's principal activities are gold mining and exploration in
Malaysia (as 100% owner of the Penjom mine, the country's largest gold
producer), Tajikistan (as 75% owner and operator of the Zeravshan Gold Company,
Tajikistan's principal gold mine), and Indonesia (as 80% owner of the North
Lanut gold mine in North Sulawesi).

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

For further information please contact:

Avocet Mining PLC 4C Communications Ltd
John Catchpole (Chief Executive) Carina Corbett
Jonathan Henry (Finance Director) 020 8949 7171
020 7907 9000 020 7907 4761

sounds like good news! Also, when gold price has been sagging recently. When this goes up again, should see upturn of share price much more

Spot on SI.

cheers GF.

Yesterdays Broker note from Evolution..................

21 December 2004

Avocet Mining (AVM) Buy (unchanged)
Mkt cap: 99m Net cash: 9m Trading update Price/Target: 96p/130p

Exploration increases mine life at Penjom.

The company has generated a new mine plan and ore body model
following exploration. This anticipates an additional two years of
production at a lower ratio and improved grade.
Ongoing exploration in and around Penjom, Avocets Malaysian operation, has
boosted the resource base by 187,000 ounces or 27% (108,386 ounces of gold
remaining + 78,777 ounces gold mined YTD) replacing this years production.
This follows an earlier upgrade of 29% released with the year-end results in July.
The company gave the market the first indication of this in September when drill
results were still being modelled. These results further endorse the companys
claim of the potential for extending the mine life at Penjom laterally and through
a follow on underground operation. The mine life of the operation, at current
rates, has now been extended to 2010 in our estimates. This adds an additional
5p per share to our valuation, moving our target price to 130p.
Avocets resource estimate have consistently proven to be conservative, this is a
result of the nature of the ore, which tends to occur in high-grade veinlets and
disseminations. The model has been refined over time as more information is
generated from production and exploration. The company currently uses inverse
distance weighting cutting grades above 100g/t back to 100g/t this system has
been seen to underestimate the deposit by 15 to 20%. However recent
reconciliation is understood to have underestimated the grade by up to 40%, as
the operation is currently mining through a particularly high-grade area. We are
satisfied therefore that current estimates of the resource base at Penjom are
conservative and that further exploration will extend the existing mine life.
The results from remodeling following the new exploration results have not only
increased the resource base but also brought down the strip ratio and lifted the
anticipated recovery grade. These factors will reduce costs at the operation in
the long term, and we believe that the current year should see costs below
$200/ounce.

cheers GF.

Avocet Mining PLC
24 January 2005

Avocet Mining plc (the 'Company')



Director shareholding



The Company was informed today that Nigel McNair Scott, the Company's chairman,
has today acquired 230,000 ordinary shares at a price of 92.1p. This brings Mr
McNair Scott's total shareholding to 5,755,000 ordinary shares, representing
5.55 per cent of the issued share capital of the Company.




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

Avocet Mining (AVM) looking interesting, strong uptrend should breakout and move to 52 week high. Director has bought 230,000 today, to add to his previous holding.I'm already long.

THis probably explains the recent fall!

May dip a tad in the morning, but IMHO not too much, and I do expect AVM to recover fairly quickly.

Now if they would start to unwind that hedge!
======================================================================

Minews Story
Date: April 08, 2005

Avocet May Undershoot Its Target Of 300,000 Ozs In 2005, But Not By Much.

Heads have to roll from time to time and it looks as if chief operating officer Johannes Oelofse has had to carry the can for the disappointing progress by AIM listed Avocet Mining at its Zeravshan gold mine in Tajikistan. Production for the 3rd quarter to end 2004 amounted to only 11,437 ozs gold as compared with 12,638 ozs in the previous quarter and this meant that production for the first nine months of the year to end March was 34,435 ozs compared with 49,743 in 2003. The company pencilled in production of 100,000 ozs annually from this mine when it last claimed in mid- 2004 that it was on track for group production of 300,000 ozs by the end of 2005. At that time production costs were still way too high at US$322/oz and the company had decided to throw money at it with US$8 million budgeted over the next 18 months on an expanded mining fleet, plant and infrastructure refurbishment and the installation of a 2.5 million tonne/year dump leach facility.

The benefits of this were delayed as it took longer than anticipated to restructure the ownership of the Zeravshan Gold Company which was a pre-condition for the company’s commitment to purchasing this mining equipment. Diesel was also in short supply and the reduction in high grade ore for the plant meant that the gap had to be filled by low grade stockpiles. One of its two SAG mills broke down last September and the winter weather was bad which added to problems. In fact the only good news was that a positive feasibility study was completed on the dump leach project which is a key component in the expansion and cost reduction programme. Trial underground mining and processing of ore from the nearby Taror underground project was also completed last autumn and the impact should start to be felt this year.

Into the breach has stepped Gordon Toll as technical director and his initial brief is clearly to get Zeravshan fixed. He certainly has to the right experience and credentials as his career has included four years as production manager with BHP Iron Ore in Australia and manager of Mining International for TexasGulf International. In the 1980s he was involved in building two world-class coal mines for Atlantic Richfiedl Coal and then worked for Rio Tinto, ending as group mining executive in London. He was then chairman of Emperor Gold Mines, an Aussie company producing gold in Jiji and until last Christmas was deputy chairman of Ivanhoe Mines. Anyone who survives working with Robert Friedland has not only to be good at his job, but tough to boot. He is also still on the board of Fortescue Metals which may, or may not, prove to be a good thing.

The engine room for Avocet is still the Penjom mine in Malaysia which looks as if it should have hit its 120,000 ozs target in 2004/5. The cash flow from this mine over the past three years has cut the borrowings from around 30 million to nil and it is a pity that the company still has a hedging programme round its neck to satisfy a banking covenant. It may be only 80,000 ozs, but at some time Avocet has to sell these ounces of gold for a pitiful US$300/oz. At the nine month stage it had produced 87,585 ozs which was a slight reduction due to downtime for modifications and additions to the plant which will improve performance over time and allow harder ores to be processed.

Looking ahead the North Lanut mine in Indonesia achieved its first gold pour back in October when 675 ozs of gold was produced. Since then, according to a comment on gold production in the December issued in February, gold has been accumulated in solution while open pit mining and plant operations are brought to full capacity.. At that time John Catchpole, the CEO, said that optimisation would be reached in three months when annualised production of over 60,000 ounces of gold is expected. If Avocet is going to achieve its target of 300,000 ozs in 2005/6 Penjom will have to maintain its present level of production, Lanut will have to boost its contribution to 80,000 ozs and Zeravshan will have to chip in 100,000 ozs. This is a big ask, but Gordon Toll must have known he was not going to have an easy ride when he took the job and it would be unwise to bet too much money against him succeeding. It may just be that Zeravshan will not hit its target until 2006 when operations at Jilau have been enhanced and in the meantime the final feasibility at Taror will have been completed.

With operations in three country’s Avocet spent US$5 million on exploration last year. Steady progress is being made at Penjom in bringing more reserves into the mining plan and some excellent intercepts continue to be made to the north of the Kalampong open pit including 8 metres at 38.1 g/t and another 8 metres at 29.7 g/t gold. Bullion Reef is now going to be worked initially as a satellite to Penjom for its near surface oxide ore and exploration will then be carried out to test its deeper potential. Work is also in progress in and around North Lanut to boost reserves and identify another project for future development. Bakan is particularly interesting as Newmont did some drilling there so Peter Flindell must know where all the bones are buried as he was exploration manager for Newmont in the area before joining Avocet. For shareholders the good news is that the company now really seems to know where it is going.

Minews Story
Date: July 20, 2005

Avocet Mining Should be Poised For A Strong Run Over The Next 2/3 Years.

The latest results from AIM listed Avocet Mining are mostly good, but there are a couple of points on which investors should keep a close eye. To be fair they are considerably better than the curates egg which was only good in parts, so we will start with the good bits. The company sold 171,092 ozs of gold during the year to end March 2005 and the new mine at North Lanut in Indonesia only contributed 6,108 ozs to this as it had to contend with some very wet weather. Nevertheless it is up and running and should produce around 50,000 ozs this year with the cash cost falling as gold production flows from the heap leach pads. The important thing is that the company now has no debt; its operating profit increased by 11 per cent ; and there are mutterings about paying a dividend in the reasonably near future.

The Penjom mine in Malaysia is the work horse of the company and produced 120,000 ozs of gold last year. How long its resources stretch ahead of it is impossible to say, but it probably has more years ahead of it than when it first went into production five years ago and Nigel McNair Scott, chairman of the company, is confident that there is at least another million ozs of mineable ore with future underground operations looking viable now that the underground exploration drive has confirmed mineralization beyond the limits of the current pit. Having said that, the geology of the mine is complex and ore grades and ore tonnes exceeded those modelled by 28 per cent and 20 per cent last year so the chairman may be erring on the conservative side.

Exploration is key to the companys future at all three of its projects and here Peter Flindell, who joined the company as chief geologist in 2002, is playing a blinder.. During his career with Newmont, part of which was spent as exploration manager of the western Pacific region, he played a leading role in the exploration and development of the two million ounce Mesel gold mine in North Sulawesi, Indonesia, and was responsible for the discovery of Avocet's North Lanut project which is about 40 km from Mesel. He was also involved in the early assessment and evaluation of Newmont's US$2 billion Batu Hijau copper-gold mine in Sumbawa, Indonesia. He likes the region and has identified six targets for new tenement applications in Malaysia. Good results are also reported from the Buffalo Reef prospect about 40 kms from Penjom and could become a satellite producer.

In Indonesia also a number of drill targets are being evaluated in the region around North Lanut and elsewhere in Indonesia great hopes are expressed that the Idenburg property may prove to host a multi-million ounce , high grade reserve amenable to conventional carbon-in-leach recovery treatment. Avocet is going to spend US$2.5 million over 2 years to earn a 51 per cent interest in the company which owns Idenburg and this brings with it exploration as well as mining rights over 420 sq miles of Papua province on the island of New Guinea where the huge Porgera and Grasberg mines are situated. Exploration permits have also been obtained over an area in South Sulawesi which has geology similar to that at Penjom.

The venture in Tajikistan has caused pain to Avocet ever since its acquisition three yers ago, but there are now real signs that it could start to pay for itself. Avocets interest in Zeravshan, the holding company, has now increased to 75 per cent and it is in partnership with the government. This took longer than expected and delayed capital investment in the mining fleet at the Jilau Main open pit which, in turn, hit production. Price increases in diesel, steel and cyanide also pushed up costs, but that has been par for the course in mining over the past year. In order to mitigate the impact a dump heap leaching operation facility will now treat low grade ore categorised as waste in the past.

Zeravshan also has two other gold projects which are at advanced stages. Taror is an underground mine with complex refractory ore and Chore is less advanced and the ore less refractory. At one stage the company was thinking about trucking ore from Taror to Jilau, but has now returned to first base and is seeking an efficient recovery system for the combined mines using, perhaps, biological pre-treatment. There have been many advances in this technology in recent years so Avocet is re-visiting a pre-feasibility study carried out in 2000 which worked on a base case of 500,000 tonnes/year throughput to produce 130,000 ozs over a 16 year life at a cash cosst of US$170/oz. The important thing is to get Jilau operating efficiently and the other mines into production as the Russians left no doubt that resources in the region totalled at least 6 million ozs.

Lastly there is hedging. The sooner Avocet gets rid of its outstanding spot deferred hedge position, the sooner it can think of paying a dividend. Last year Avocet only delivered 14,000 ozs at the average delivery price obligation of US$300 so lost US$1.6 million against its average sale price. This year it is going to deliver 48,000 ozs which will cost it US$5.76 million and it will still have another 18,000 ozs to go. A sad commentary on the positions into which banks force junior companies requiring development capital. The said bank, Macquarie, is currently offering the company a revolving US$10 million credit facility. Some shareholders may think it should put the facility where the monkey puts its nuts. There is always another bank round the corner.

Can anyone tell me what the consequences are here relating to capital re-organisation.

Thanks.

Capital Reduction Approved

At a hearing on 7 December 2005 , the High Court approved the Avocet
Mining PLC reduction of capital and cancellation of share premium
account. The reduction of capital became effective on 8 December 2005
whereupon the nominal value of each New Ordinary Share of Avocet Mining
PLC was reduced to 5.0 pence from 25.0 pence.

This 'gem' of a company is little discussed here.
A very nice announcement this morning
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=1201473
The share price is heading northwards (even chartists will find it very bullish !!)

;o)

Avocet Mining signs earn-in agreement with Dynasty Gold on Chinese gold project
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Avocet Mining PLC said it signed an agreement with Dynasty Gold Corp to earn up to 36 pct of Dynasty's interests in Xinjiang Province in China.

Dynasty controls a large area of prospective ground in Western China, including 1,000 km2 at Hatu in Xinjiang Province. Under the agreement Avocet can invest up to 1.8 mln usd in the Hatu joint venture by end March 2007.

Hatu has an independently verified inferred resource of 16.86 mln tonnes at 1.68 grammes a tonne of gold (912,600 ounces of gold).

AIM-listed Avocet holds a 29 pct stake in Dynasty.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

jc

Andy

Could this be the next stellar performing mining stock ?

ianayel,

Possibly, but it has advanced somewhat since the early days, but I know some people that think AVM is one of the cheapest gold miners in london, and compares exceeedingly well when you check out Peter Hambro for instance.

Andy,

You are right about AVM being one of the cheapest gold miners in london, and it certainly does compares exceeedingly well when you check out other Gold miners, specially after the latest RNS. Seymour Pierce, obviously like the new agreement with Dynasty Gold, they brought out a BUY recommendation on Avocet Mining (LSE: AVM.L ) on Friday 3rd March 06.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060303/336/g5gj5.html

Avocet Mining PLC
20 March 2006

Avocet Mining Plc

20 March 2006

ZGC RESOURCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AT JILAU PIT

Avocet Mining PLC ('Avocet' or 'the Company') is pleased to announce an increase
in the gold resources at ZGC's Jilau operations in Tajikistan of 802,000 ounces
to over 2.7 million ounces of contained gold. This represents a 40% increase in
the resource base net of depletion. ZGC now has total resources of 5.6 million
ounces of contained gold that meet the guidelines of the JORC code. These are
contained in the Jilau, Khirskhona, Taror and Chore deposits. The 3,000km2 joint
venture area controlled by ZGC contains an additional 11.3 million ounces of
resources categorised by Soviet standards (C+P), but not to JORC compliant
standards.

In November 2004, Avocet increased its equity interest in ZGC from 49% to 75%
(the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan holds the remaining 25%). The
Company then commenced an expansion and refurbishment of operations with the
main objectives of increasing gold production and lowering unit costs. Part of
that expansion plan was infill and definition drilling in and around the main
Jilau open pit, known as Jilau Main. Drilling and ongoing waste stripping in the
pit has now merged the Jilau Main and Jilau North open pits into the one Jilau
Pit.

Exploration results increased the resource base for the Jilau Pit by 389,000
ounces using a 0.5 g/t Au cut off grade and net of depletion. However, with the
successful commencement of low-cost dump leach operations adjacent to the Jilau
Pit and our ability to treat low-grade ore, the cut-off grade has now been
lowered to 0.3 g/t Au. This has contributed to an overall resource increase for
the Jilau Pit of 645,000 ounces to a total of 2,317,100 ounces gold. Additional
drilling at the smaller Khirskhona open pit to the north has increased resources
by 157,000 ounces to 421,700 ounces above a 0.3 g/t Au cut-off. All deposits
remain open at depth and along strike. The Company is confident of future
significant increases in the resource base for Jilau's operations.

The table below lists the revised resources in the Jilau district using
a 0.3 g/t cut-off:

Measured + Indicated Inferred Total
tonnes grade tonnes grade tonnes grade
ounces ounces ounces

Jilau Main 38,670,100 1.05 28,215,900 0.79 66,886,000 0.94
1,304,500 716,200 2,020,700

Jilau North 4,145,000 0.90 5,158,400 1.06 9,303,800 0.99
120,300 176,100 296,400

Khirskhona 9,449,000 0.73 6,835,000 0.91 16,284,000 0.81
222,400 199,300 421,700

Total Jilau 52,264,500 0.98 40,209,300 0.84 92,473,800 0.92
Pits 1,647,200 1,091,600 2,738,800

ZGC will complete a new mine production schedule based on the expanded resources
by May 2006. Given Jilau's resource potential, the Company is looking at options
to increase substantially gold production above the 85,000 ounces per year
currently planned.

Current operations at Jilau are concentrated on waste removal at the Jilau Pit
where the Company expects to reach consistent high grade ore by the summer of
2006. This should allow the operation to return to break even cash flow with a
substantial pick up in gold production from the current level of approximately
3,000 ounces per month.

All references to resources and exploration results have been approved for
release by Mr. Peter Flindell, BSc (Hons) MAusIMM, Chief Geologist for Avocet,
who has more than 20 years experience in the field of activity concerned and is
a Competent Person as defined by the JORC Code (2004). He has consented to the
inclusion of the material in the form and context in which it appears.

Avocet is a mining company listed on the AIM market of the London Stock
Exchange. The Company's principal activities are gold mining and exploration in
Malaysia (as 100% owner of the Penjom mine, the country's largest gold
producer), Tajikistan (as 75% owner and operator of the ZGC, Tajikistan's
principal gold mine), and Indonesia (as 80% owner of the North Lanut gold mine
in North Sulawesi). The Company has a number of advanced mining and exploration
projects in Asia and owns 29% of Dynasty Gold Corporation, a Canadian listed
exploration company active in Western China.

For further information please contact:

Avocet Mining PLC
John Catchpole (Chief Executive)
Jonathan Henry (Finance Director)
020 7907 9000




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

Excellent news ANDY!

"Could this be the next stellar performing mining stock ? "

Ian, it looks like that doesn't it? 40% increase in the resource base net of depletion, SP has started ticking up. I am sure we will see a gradual mark up.

Why gold miners are set for further gains

An interesting article -"It is our view that gold bullion is probably headed to $1,000oz and on that basis we would want the portfolios to remain exposed to what we believe to be a very considerable investment opportunity......."

Cont......http://www.moneyweek.com/file/9832/why-gold-miners-are-set-for-further-gains.html

Any news on this drop in SP ?
I know of the substantial shareholdings RNS but nothing else.

profit taking in line with major miners ! Just a breather before another leg up as gold continues its relentless approach to the magical $1000!!

Avocet Mining PLC
20 June 2006

Avocet Mining PLC

20 June 2006

MORE POSITIVE DRILL RESULTS CONFIRM RESOURCE POTENTIAL

AT OSELA IN THE BAKAN DISTRICT, INDONESIA

Avocet Mining PLC ('Avocet' or 'the Company'), the Central and South East Asian
gold production and exploration company, is pleased to announce continued
exploration success from first-phase resource-definition drilling at Osela. This
is the second advanced prospect in the Bakan District in the Company's 80% owned
Mongondow Contract of Work ('CoW'), the other being the Durian prospect. The
Bakan District is approximately 25km west of the Company's North Lanut mining
operation and is the main new initiative in the CoW.

The results of drilling in the Bakan District have the potential to add over
500,000 ounces of gold to the Company's resource base, which is above the
initial expectations announced by of the Company last year. Additionally, the
Bakan District has the potential for a significantly larger resource than this
being discovered on account of additional mineralisation already identified in
the Camp and Main Ridge areas (see press release of 11 July 2005).

Avocet reported significant intercepts from resource drilling at Durian on 29
March 2006 as a follow-up to the results of scout drilling reported on 11 July
and 16 November 2005. More recently, the Company has completed a 35-hole (3,400
metres) resource-definition diamond drilling programme at Osela, approximately
2,000 metres northeast of Durian. This programme, drilled on 50-metre centres,
has confirmed oxidised, high-sulphidation epithermal mineralisation over a
strike length of 1,000 metres. The zone consists of high-grade mineralisation at
North Osela, which is developed over a minimum strike length of 400 metres,
width of 25-100 metres and depth of up to 100 metres from surface. South Osela
is lower-grade, but includes a near-surface, supergene gold zone covering an
area of 300m by 100m with a thickness of 6-20 metres. Drilling in the area
between the North and South zones has intersected a silica-alunite alteration,
suggesting that the two are co-joined, though a slower than anticipated
laboratory turnaround has delayed processing of drill core samples from this
link zone.

The drilling results discovered significant intercepts from the majority of the
Osela drilling programme (Table 1). These include 41m @ 2.31 g/t Au (incl. 4m @
9.24 g/t Au), 54m at 2.58 g/t Au (incl. 4m @ 21.2 g/t Au), 50m at 2.79 g/t Au,
56m at 2.13 g/t Au, 54m @ 2.58 g/t Au (incl. 4m @ 28.7 g/t Au) and 30m @ 3.16
g/t Au (incl. 12m @ 6.01 g/t Au).

The style of mineralisation at Osela is similar to that at Durian and the
Company's Riska deposit, currently being mined at North Lanut. The high grade
intercepts at North Osela are associated with a near surface
halloysite-kaolinite alteration (after alunite) and chalcedonic silica-sulphide
at depth. The former is due to supergene enrichment while the latter is hypogene
mineralisation in the form of veins and replacement alteration. Gold
mineralisation in both North and South Osela are broadly distributed in NNE-SSW
to NE-SW trending structures. The occurrence of near-surface ore zones in both
North and South Osela will have a positive impact on the economics of the
potential resources. Osela, like the Durian deposit, is situated on a ridge,
which further minimises the potential waste to ore stripping ratios.

Metallurgical test work is underway to confirm preliminary results that show the
ore is amenable to the low cost dump leaching process employed at North Lanut.
Drilling rigs are currently collecting additional sample for comprehensive
metallurgical test work, including coarse particle column leach tests, and will
commence infill reserve drilling shortly.

Formal grade modelling is underway with the conversion of the resource to the
indicated and inferred category during July 2006, followed by feasibility work
to construct a new mine expected to commence production by 2008.

All references to resources and exploration results have been approved for
release by Mr Peter Flindell, BSc (Hons) MAusIMM, Chief Geologist for Avocet,
who has more than 20 years experience in the field of activity concerned and is
a Competent Person as defined by the JORC Code (2004). He has consented to the
inclusion of the material in the form and context in which it appears.

John Catchpole, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

'These drill results from Osela, combined with those from Durian that we
announced in March, indicate that the oxidised portion of the orebody may be
more extensive than we had first thought from the initial phase of drilling. We
remain confident that the Bakan District has the potential to host at least
500,000 ounces and possibly much more.'

. see link below

Final results

Keep this on your watchlist :-)

more great news today on both fronts.

cant understand why no-one chats on this......its a great nest egg

almost on CGT on this alone....and thats without SCTN

New article, click HERE

Bottom wedge breakout imminent looks that way......



Fundies good aswell........

Avocet Mining PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Arbuthnot Securities
07-05-09 BUY 16.19 7.73 11.28 4.36

Evolution Securities Ltd
01-05-09 ADD 12.23 6.01 20.79 11.38

Investec Securities
09-03-09 HOLD 27.61 14.54 21.96 11.38

2009 2010
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS
(p) DPS (p)

Consensus 14.34 6.93 21.26 11.38
1 Month Change -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00
3 Month Change 1.32 0.62 -0.05 0.00


GROWTH
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)
Norm. EPS -51.12% 58.59% 64.21%
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

EBITDA 26.42m 21.90m 27.78m

EBIT 19.64m 14.08m 9.98m

Dividend Yield % % %

Dividend Cover x x x

PER 17.45x 11.00x 6.70x

PEG -0.34f 0.19f 0.10f

Net Asset Value PS 51.79p p p

Avocet Mining upgraded to BUY from hold at Investec, target price raised to 91p from 71p.

MoneyAM
27/4/09

Broker has upgraded its valuation to include Avocets planned acquisition of Oslo-listed Wega and higher gold price assumptions of $900/oz for 2009.

Taken a small punt on this, thought for a long time that this is undervalued.

Very red on trades at the mo, not encouraging one to buy.

Just keeps banging on that 80p barrier every time...if only this could break that then the sp could fly !, probably needs gold to climb up to $930 an ounce.

or perhaps produce more gold ... will wega do the trick ... I am giving it a run.

Hoping i get a short term term move within the sideways trend here and also a breakout from 90p.

Fingers crossed.

A new broker note out,

out late yesterday and is a reiteration.....

Avocet Mining PLC

FORECASTS
2010 2011

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Arbuthnot Securities [R]
16-09-09 BUY 11.27 4.44 17.47 7.69

company look good for traders that like gold shares. have a read let me no wt you think

http://www.minesite.com/fileadmin/content/pdfs/Brokers_Notes_August_09/Brokers_Notes_Sept_09/Brokers_Notes_Oct_09/AVM%2028-10-2009.pdf

micky .... not sure what i think in all honesty ..... my initial thought, sight unseen, was that this was some silly little tinpot E&P company .... however, i see that it is actually a modest though profitable producer with some money in the bank .... on the other hand, the share doesn't move a lot, notwithstanding the current level of gold ..... further, institutional holdings are quite modest, but trading volumes are quite good and the spread modest .... for sure you could do worse, but equally surely, there must be better bets - e.g. CEY

Thank you cynic as always your point's of views are all ways welcome and well put , and yes your right about CEY it's a great company, And I've been keeping an eye on it , from 70p ..........wish i had paid attention to you then when you told to buy........lol ;-) have a good week-end .........CEY = 122p where do you see this short to mid term ? also not holding to well with gold dropping !!

Rated by Shares as one of the 2 best gold plays (POG is the other)
Any comments?

Could be about to rise 20p or so....the graph is shaping that way....

i'ld rather have POG (and CEY)

Well yes...it is just not possible to cover them all...CEY is already valued at a hefty market value.....compare it to this and AVM looks undervalued.

So much for my rise...down 10p since then.

Well the Brokers like this stock and Im not suprised on such a cheap rating. P/E of just over 13 into 2011 results, way too cheap IMO .

Avocet Mining PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Numis Securities Ltd
06-09-11 BUY 63.35 29.19 1.86 19.87 5.59 6.21
Evolution Securities Ltd
30-08-11 ADD 29.50 9.69 21.88 8.29
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
22-08-11 BUY
Westhouse Securities
01-08-11 HOLD 34.00 6.30 8.50 6.30
Fairfax IS
27-07-11 BUY
Broker Name Withheld 3
27-07-11 BUY 37.83 11.90 32.34 11.10

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 44.24 21.20 3.84 24.10 8.19 6.25
1 Month Change 3.60 1.06 -0.17 4.34 1.20 0.02
3 Month Change 5.43 8.02 3.84 8.70 1.66 6.25


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS % 6,311.98% -61.36%
DPS % % 62.97%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA 42.07m 63.64m 57.50m
EBIT 11.40m 34.72m 26.01m
Dividend Yield % 1.37% 2.23%
Dividend Cover x 5.53x 1.31x
PER 847.02x 13.21x 34.19x
PEG f 0.00f -0.56f
Net Asset Value PS 96.61p p p

what is going on today - a drop of 10% so far.

..Questor share tip: Avocet beats guidance

By Garry White | Telegraph – Fri, Jan 27, 2012 07:16 GMT

When it comes to production guidance, the best thing mining companies can do is under-promise and over-deliver. This is what Avocet Mining (Xetra: 900745 - news) has done.

Avocet Mining 226p +14¼ Questor says BUY

The gold mining company, which owns 90pc of the Inata gold mine in Burkina Faso, issued a production update on the final quarter of last year that smashed expectations. Avocet produced 46,102 ounces of gold in the three months ending December 39pc more than the previous quarter. Guidance was for 40,000 ounces.

This brought total production for the year to 166,744 ounces, compared with guidance of 160,000 to 165,000 ounces. For 2012, the guidance is a conservative 160,000 ounces.

The company has had a busy couple of years selling off its South East Asian gold mines for £200m to focus on West Africa. As well as Inata, the group has a pipeline of exploration projects in Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali.

Avocet is ramping up Inata production and this is going to consume most of the cash that it throws off over the next couple of years. However, gold prices are likely to stay at elevated levels for some time.

Indeed, the prospect of more quantitative easing in the US, as hinted at by Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, on Wednesday, sent the gold price once again above $1,700 an ounce. Guidance for the cash cost of producing each ounce at Inata is $800 to $850 an ounce this year.

Most gold miners have underperformed over the past year or so but the view is building that they could have a better 2012. This includes Avocet. Indeed, last week Nomura named Avocet as one of its top three picks in the sector.

The group should continue to throw off cash and, although one should never buy a share on bid hopes alone, some analysts regard it as a prime acquisition target.

Avocet does not currently pay a dividend and it is likely to use its cash flow to invest in new projects, so Questor does not expect any payments soon.

The shares are trading on a December 2012 multiple of 14.1, falling to 8.1 in 2013.

Last tipped at 190p on June 28 last year the shares are up 19pc compared with a FTSE 100 (Euronext: VFTSE.NX - news) up less than 1pc since that date.

The shares are a buy.

..

Obviously Garry White doesn't know anything about Avocet... serious profit warning coming through...SELL.

Shares in Avocet Mining continue to tumble...

Shares in Avocet Mining continued to fall in early trading in London and were down more than 4%.

On Friday its shares plunged by more than 35% after it issued a profits warning ahead of its results for the half year due on 1 August.

The company now expects its gold production for this year to be reduced from 160,000 ounces to between 135,000 and 140,000 ounces following lower-than-expected output for the year to date and a reassessment of mining for the remainder of the year.

Two brokers issued downgrades on the company. Numis downgraded Avocet Mining from buy to hold and cut its target price from 230p to 130p. Westhouse Securities reduced the company from a strong buy to neutral with the target price down from 262p to 102p.

65p now and still falling

2012 Fourth Quarter Production Results

Avocet Mining PLC ("Avocet" or "the Company") today announces its production and cash costs for the fourth quarter of 2012 from its Inata Gold Mine in Burkina Faso:

· Total gold production for the quarter was 30,909 ounces at a total cash cost (including royalties) of US$1,246 per ounce. This compares with 33,067 ounces produced in the third quarter of 2012 at a total cash cost of US$937 per ounce, and with 46,102 ounces produced at a total cash cost of US$773 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2011;

· Gold production from the Inata Gold Mine for the year was 135,189 ounces at a total cash cost (including royalties) of US$1,000 per ounce, in line with revised guidance. This compares with 166,744 ounces at a total cash cost of US$693 per ounce from the Inata Gold Mine for the year ended December 2011.

As expected, cash costs rose in the fourth quarter due to consultant fees paid to Alexander Proudfoot, a full quarter of costs associated with the hired mining fleet and scheduled maintenance of Inata's own mining fleet. The impact of such items is expected to be lower in future quarters. In addition, movements in gold in circuit, which reflect the timing of gold pours, added approximately US$190 per ounce compared with the previous quarter. This reflects 4,568 ounces being added to gold in circuit inventory during the fourth quarter, compared with a reduction in inventory of 2,631 ounces in the third quarter.

Anybody any idea why these (and TSTL) have tumbled so dramatically this am?

RNS out for AVM does not make happy reading, dealerdear.

Thanks for that db4. For some reason the RNS didn't appear on my screen at the time.

This was evident from last year.

post 185 - because those in the know knew what those not in the know didn't know and they didn't know they didn't know either! - an emergency cash call apparently

.

Were you actually considering investing here Mr C?

more than 3 years ago????
don't remember, but doubt it and certainly did not

Lots of gold minnows for you to have a look at. All seem to be high risk, imo.

minnows are of no interest to me ..... buy quality, especially in the current markets, though they're more indian bazaar (or even bizarre) than followers of newton