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News:	Sorry Your browser is not java capable
US Stocks markets were set for a bounce after 2 weeks of falls and the gains today proved sufficient to wipe out all of last week's declines. ICAP the world's largest interbank broker across financial markets, said first-half pre-tax profit rose 47 percent on turnover up 31 percent to 407.7 million. and said it expected a continued strong performance in the second half. Tesco Plc The UK's biggest supermarket chain delivered a forecast-beating rise in third-quarter sales to 6.9 percent in the 14 weeks to November 15.as strong demand for its budget clothes helped it to continue to outshine its rivals. Enterprise Inns One of Britain's biggest pub operators reported a 51 percent jump in annual profits to 173.2 million pounds just above analyst forecasts and added that its new financial year had started well. Jarvis CEO resigns as expected TBI British regional airports operator posted a sharp fall in first-half pre-tax profit to 7.2 million pounds down from 15 million pounds last year.after writing down the book value of its struggling airport service business in North America. New Look Group British women's fashion chain reported a fall in same-store sales in the first eight weeks of the second-half on Tuesday, as it posted a 7.3 percent rise in first-half profits to 48.2 million pounds. The firm, which has received a bid approach by its founder Tom Singh, said UK like-for-like sales in the eight weeks to November 22 fell 0.8 percent on the year-ago period and gross margins were down 1.9 percentage points. De La Rue the world's biggest non-government printer of banknotes, posted a slight rise in first-half profits to 19.7 million pounds and said it expected favourable conditions to continue into the second half. It announced an interim dividend of 4.4 pence, unchanged from last year. News will be posted at approx 7:35am

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Enterprise Inns (F) PBT 169m exp. AbacGroup (F), Acambis (Q3), Autologic Holdings (Q3), Care U.K (F). Character Group (F), De La Rue (I), Gen(I), ICAP (F), Intec Telecom Systems (F), Jarvis (I), Kingston Communications (I), London Merchant Securities (I), New Look (I), Quintain Estates & Dev (I), Signet Group (Q3), South Staffordshire (I), TBI (I), Topps Tiles (F), Tribal Group (I) Tesco Q3 Sales 09.30 3rd Quarter Business Investment q/q 09.30 Oct Car Production 3m y/y	Aloy Inc (Q3), HJ Heinz (Q3) 13.30 3rd Quarter Preliminary GDP 7.5% exp. 13.30 3rd Quarter Preliminary Personal Consumption 6.5% exp. 15.00 Nov Consumer Confidence 85.0 exp. 15.00 Oct Existing Home Sales 6.5m exp.	AWD AG (Q3), Munich Re (Q3), Fortis (Q3) 09.00 EMU Nov German IFO Expectations Survey 108.1

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11/24: Rally was a bit faster than expected, but closed right on the target area of 9750.
The form of the rally makes it fit best as a C wave (or an impulse up if you are bullish) and thus the count shown makes the most sense right now.
Note that another sharp move up to 9900 from here would confirm the leading diagonal, provided we don't get a new high for the move.
So we still have 2 counts: one is the leading diagonal wave 1 complete at 9600, the other the truncated wave 5 of the ending diagonal, and wave 1 with an expanded flat correction playing out now.
With that in mind, there isn't enough pattern here yet to seriously think about fading this move up just yet.
Near term a decline that takes out 9600 can be sold, otherwise the sharpness of the rally leaves the door open to more bullish



Updated 11/24 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/25
UP Above 9,750
DN Below 9,700

Solid Rally
Dow breaks consolidation to upside, rallies to resistance.

From prior commentary, "...If the consolidation is broken to the upside, that will also be significant, as it will imply sufficient strength to overcome the prevailing negative technical pattern. Therefore an upside break from the consolidation at 9,650 will likely spark a move higher toward the upper boundary of the range at 9,750..."
The Dow got a solid upside break through the top of the consolidation this morning at 9,650, which sparked an enormous rally, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index rallied to the clear 9,750 resistance level, which is the upper boundary of the wide trading range that has formed over the course of the last six sessions. As we indicated Friday, consolidations like this usually break down, but can break to the upside. Either break direction was tradable.

The 9,750 resistance level will be key heading into tomorrow's market, as a break or bounce here will likely decide direction. The index has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of today's rally, which gives us a clear range to watch tomorrow.
An upside break from the consolidation at 9,750 (also resistance), will indicate continued strength to the upside, possibly toward major resistance at 9,900. However, a downside break from the consolidation at 9,715 will imply a reversal back down within the wide trading range. Watch this range closely tomorrow.

What you have to realize is that we are fighting within a large range at the highs here. In a "micro" sense, the market is likely to consolidate and break like this - in both directions - for some time to come. This will frustrate medium and longer term traders. Our objective is to trade the wider boundaries as the highest priority, but when well formed consolidations appear (like the one Friday), we will want to trade these tighter consolidation range boundaries.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the 5 Minute Chart from 9,715 to 9,750. An upside break is implied, since the consolidation is a continuation pattern. However, watch both boundaries at the Open, as a break either way will decide direction.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the Dow Long this morning at 9,697 and are still in the market. We will move our stops up to 9,700 for tomorrow's market and will stay Long above 9,750. We will also look to enter Shorts below 9,700, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P rallied sharply higher today, and got upside breaks from intraday consolidations, which implies even further strength tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow rallied strongly this morning, but held firmly at resistance at 9,750, which will be key tomorrow. This is a key fulcrum in the charts to watch tomorrow, as a break or bounce will likely decide the Dow's next move.




TUE PP

R2 4427
R1 4405
PP 4362
S1 4339
S22 4296

Flat close in auction above r3! 2 day chart targeting 4400 with uptrend brk at 4370 to 4340!

Thanks TP
Morning all

Morning all.

Morning all,

After a initial good start - suddenly a down turn. I'm only here for the morning - so looks like I'm going to miss any action!

CYH made its first (not expected, but hoped for) profit & the share price goes down!

KCOM reduced losses in line with expectations and it looks like they don't know whether to drop the price or raise it!


LLOY is up, but has slightly dropped back already.

ETL's offer is up - but bid static.

Oh I forgot BT.A is down and looks like it may stay down!

Morning all,

Can't really get exited about anything this week.
With the US shut on Thursday and a half day on
Friday, there won't be much trading on Friday as
most traders will treat it as a 4 day weekend.

As they will probably therefore treat Wednesday as
a day to close positions and knock off early, then
I would expect today to be last proper day of trading.

This will probably leave the FTSE rudderless on Thursday
and Friday, with lacklustre drifty sort of trading.

Yawn.

Melnibone

LLOY seems to have broken 410!

melnibone-yes well put!

Melnibone do we really depend on the US for direction to that extent?

I'm afraid we do little woman.

Until we get a disconnect, the US markets will
always be the dog that wags the UK tail.

Check out any chart you like, the gap may waver
around a bit but wherever the US goes the UK is
sure to follow.

Without the US to point the way, UK traders will just
take advantage of any rise or fall to take positions
in stocks whenever they hit the individual's buy or sell
price.

Melnibone

Looks like VOD is going to have a good day

They are ex div tommorrow, so it'll be interesting to see if the price will hold...........

Lots of nice buy Bots on Burberry / Kesa
Lloyds looks good

Hi croc,

Could you do me a favour and take a look a the CYH thread. (The last 25 or so posts) I'm backing off because I don't want to get into a slanging match, but someone is quoting govt regulations (?, which I don't think exist) without anything to back it up. I may be way off base but you are way ahead of me and I hate to think people may take it seriously.....

VOD L2 is really interesting!

Off now for the rest of the day...

Good trading everyone

Looks like the US GDP was already priced in to the
US markets.

S&P and DOW will probably stay flattish until 1500Hrs
and then move according to the consumer numbers.

If S&P drops below 1049 expect the FTSE to give up
its gains.

Melnibone

melnibone:
many thanks your kind advise as "woods for the tree syndrome" with me at the moment just watching.

Consumer confidence 91.7, highest for a year.

House starts a little weaker.

Nothing here to spook the markets.

Let's see how it trades.

Melnibone

Well, the FTSE has trousered today's profits whilst
the US dithers.

If the US starts to take yesterdays profits then
expect the FTSE to start taking yesterdays profits
and go negative for the day.

As usual, all depends on the US.

Melnibone

UK Foreign office has just issued a warning on more terror
attacks in Turkey.

Markets will not like that.
Careful with taking out new longs guys.

Melnibone

I spend most of my day scalping UK stocks.

What I'm seeing at the moment is most of
the stocks I trade are just rotating around
the spread.

It would be very easy to get trapped on the wrong
side of a move when it's like this and wipe this morning's profits.

Just going to watch in case a trend develops on the FTSE
in the last half hour that may yield a few points.

Melnibone

Nope, no trend for me in the last half hour.
Market can't decide where it wants to go.

That's me done.

Melnibone

HELLO ,,ANYONE KNOW ABOUT INTERALLIANCE AND ARCRISKMANAGEMENT,,PLEASE
I HOPE GOD NEEWS

I've mentioned the 60 day ma before.
Above is a chart that is clearly showing the FTSE using
it as the bottom support line of a trend channel circa 4280.

If you extrapolate the peaks you get resistance circa 4420.

With light trading expected due short US trading week, I'm
not expecting any trend breaks unless there is bad news.

However, low volume can often give high intraday volatility.
So what I will be looking for is to sell stocks or the index
circa 4400 for trend down as Bulls take profits and Bears
open shorts.

Reverse this process if a trend develops in the other direction
from 4300.

Knowing my luck we'll probably just pivot aimlessly around
the middle for the rest of the week.

Just a view, but as I've said before, to take a position you
need a reason and a plan, and to formulate a plan you need
a view.

Melnibone

Hi Croc,
Govt/City,etc Regulators mentioned above.
Please refer to my thread on main page - i.e.Regulators rgds ajren