Premarket Futures

FTSE UNCH

DAX -7

DOW -2

S&P -0.4

Nasdaq +2

1 Day 2 Day 5 Day - UK News	FTSE 250	FTSE Small Cap	FTSE TechMark
1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  Futures  US News	Nasdaq 100	S&P 500	S&P Futures
DAX / CAC    Euro News	Nikkei +11  Hang Seng +56  Asia News	10 Year Bond
UK/US charts have 1,2 or 5 day views. and now FT NEWS & Price link to UK, US & Asian markets. The Dax/CAC and Nikkei/Hang Seng are now switchable

News:	Sorry Your browser is not java capable
U.S. stocks ended the session little changed with the Dow up 15.70, S&P up 1.35 and the Nasdaq down 2.96 National Express coach and rail firm said trading for the year to was in line with market expectations, as customer numbers grew at its UK trains division.and it was comfortable with full-year forecasts of 100 million pounds profits United Business Media publishing, broadcasting and market research company said that second half revenues should be ahead of last year, despite the weakness of the U.S. dollar. Trading conditions in the U.S. had improved and there has been a greater than expected recovery in Asia. It also said it was buying Eurisko, a market research company in Italy, for 33 million euros.Britannic Group said it was on track to resume dividend payments of 10 pence per share to shareholders and annual bonuses for most of its with-profits policyholders following extensive restructuring. It has also paid back 50 million in bank borrowings. Redrow housebuilder said it expected to raise its annual dividend by at least 20 percent this financial year and maintain similar growth next year, buoyed by strong housing sales. News will be posted at approx 7:35am

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Carnival (Q4)National Express (Trading Statement) Smith & Nephew (Trading Statement) Advanced Technology bonissue of warrants ex date 09.30 Nov PSNCR, 7bn exp. 09.30 Chancellor Brown Comments on the Pre-Budget Report 09.30 Nov Retail Sales m/m, 0.1% exp. 09.30 Nov Preliminary M4 Money Supply y/y, 6.7% exp. 09.30 Nov CML, BBA & BSA Lending	US: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 13/12) 15.00 Nov Leading Indicators, 0.3% exp. 17.00 Dec Philly Fed, 25.90 prev.	Europe: Infogrammes, Cap Gemini, Nordex 08.00 Dec German IFO Expectations, 108.7 prev. 11.00 3rd Quarter Labour Costs

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

Bloomberg TV

Futures

Pivot Calc

HTML Editor

Morning all, bl**dy freezing here in the Chilterns.

stockcharts
12/17: Dow still hanging in there while the ndx fails to impress.
Technical divergences are present once again, which usually spells at least a near term trend change.
Back to waiting for a 5 down 3 up for any short trade here.
Bullish count is that this is wave 3 of 5 here, with the 9600 low being wave 2. If true we keep rallying, although the total inability of the ndx to confirm this move makes it unlikely.
Nothing to do but wait or chase, with a breach of 9900 to the downside as the initial sell signal.





Updated 12/17 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 12/18
UP Above 10,150
DN Below 10,100

At Resistance
Dow trades sideways, closes at 10,140 resistance.

From prior commentary, "...The index ended the day at the session highs, but was not able to rise above resistance at 10,140. This will be the key level to watch for tomorrow's market..."
The Dow traded quietly sideways beneath the key 10,140 resistance level throughout the session today. However, the index ended the day with a strong upmove, which caused a break of the 10,140 level late in the session, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. This late-day break could lead to further upside movement within the tight channel toward the upper boundary of the range at about 10,200.

If the Dow can continue to hold above the 1,0140 level, look for the index to push higher toward 10,200. If this level is hit, however, we could be vulnerable to a downside reversal off the upper boundary, which would caus another move lower witihin the channel boundaries, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. A downside break through 10,100 will likely confirm such a move.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day just above the 10,140 resistance level, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Use this level as a fulcrum for tomorrow's Open; Long above and Short below.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we closed Longs at the entry today, giving us a breakeven trade. No other entries were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will want to enter Longs above 10,150, and Shorts below 10,100, with 20 point stops. We will use the Breakeven Rule if 10,200 is hit.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each traded sideways the entire session today, forming clearer boundaries of their respective ranges. Watch for a break from the ranges tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow formed a tight consolidation at the highs beneath resistance at 10,140, but finally got an upside break from the range late in the day. Look for the index to push higher toward 10,200 if the Dow can hold above 10,140 tomorrow. Otherwise, a break below 10,100 will indicate weakness.



THU FTSE PP

R2 4385
R1 4369
PP 4351
S1 4336
S2 4318

Wed close above R1 after loosing 4.2pts in the auction! 2day ftse chart targeting 4385 (r2), brk of uptrend at 4350 back to 4330 imho!

LT ftse forming a wedge to brk soon, 4330 down/360 up!

Morning all. Thanks Croc & TP.

Morning all ..

Fight for 50 on ftse 2day uptrend!

Morning all,

I think that TP has got it right in what's going on.
It's difficult to trade at this point.

Testex, thanks for your view on HBOS at the end of
yesterdays thread.

Melnibone.

Unless you using DA very hard to trade the ftse with a Sber atm!

mornin all

Morning all

Looks like nothing much happening today. Lots of blue, but very small increases.

After initially falling, LLOY is now up and I think will stay up but not more than a penny or two.

If you exclude Monday as an aberration day, then FTSE
is now at the double highs that were set on Friday
and Wednesday. (See 5 day chart at top of this thread)

It needs to break through higher or there is a danger
that we will be in a horizontal trading range that is
bounded at around 4335/4365.

Melnibone.

Mel-see your point, i had buy sig at 52 after 50 uptrend held, still targeting 85 atm, 9.30 figs will decide if 65 goes!

My MarketMaker software has just gone offline.

Tried to sign in again but it won't let me,
says I'm already connected!!

Going to shut down and try re-booting everything.

Sods Law yes that this is when everything happens!!

Grrrr...

Melnibone.

Re-boot worked and I'm back in business.

Nothing much happened, so maybe there is a Fairy Godmother.

I see the FTSE is examining the 4365 boundary, this is also
close to the 4369 R1 so it will have a bit of trouble getting
through here.

Melnibone.

PSN is doing very well today - shames its a long term buy. Better start ignoring it!

TGM has been creeping back up over the last few days.

85 hit that,ll do!

I like this one - did no think that they should factor in some of the things blamed - and have they done anything yet! Overall more positive than I expected.

LONDON (AFX) - Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown blamed the war in Iraq and lower than expected average earnings growth for the Treasury's failuree arlier this year to forecast government borrowing accurately.

Brown told the Treasury Select Committee that the 10 bln stg overshoot in borrowing this year can be blamed on increased costs associated with Iraq, as well as other anti-terrorist activities, and lower tax receipts from households.

The Treasury had factored in average earnings growth of 4.5 pct against the actual outcome of 3.5 pct, Brown said.

'The rise in borrowing is completely explicable,' he said.

He said the increase in borrowing is 'perfectly affordable', adding that the level of borrowing to GDP of 3.4 pct is much lower than the peak in borrowing in all other post-war economic cycles.

Brown is testifying in the wake of last week's pre-budget report, which saw him raising his public sector net borrowing forecast for 2003-4 by 10 bln stg to 37 bln.

Though that projection is now judged realistic there are real concerns surrounding his forecasts for the coming two years given the assumptions made on growth.

Brown is projecting a narrowing in the deficits to 31 bln stg and 24 bln respectively, meaning the government will meet its golden rule of balancing the budget, excluding investment spending, over the course of the economic cycle.

Brown is forecasting GDP growth of 3.0-3.5 pct in both 2004-5 and 2005-6, while most independent forecasts are centred below the bottom end of Brown's range.

The Chancellor defended his expectations and pointed to the scepticism that greeted his growth forecast for 2003 of 2.0-2.5 pct made in April's budget.

Brown also said there's a greater balance in the economy now than at the time of April's budget, and pointed to more moderate rises in house prices and overall consumer spending, just as business investment picks up.

He said the risks to the economy are currency movements, imbalances in the world economy and geopolitical uncertainties.

However, he said the UK economy is better positioned to weather these storms than ever before, pointing to continued growth over the last few years, despite crises in Asia and Russia, oil shocks, the US recession and the spillover from the terrorist attacks on Sept 11, 2001.

pan.pylas@afxnews.com

Well done TP.

Good call.

Would be obliged if you all took profit now,
I've got my eye on a few stocks that I want to come down a bit. ;-)

Melnibone.

melnibone had buy sig on that run at 65, still a long unless it brks 82 atm!

:-), I see everyone a bit more positive today.

Melnibone: could you start by kicking SMWH on the way to other stocks that have caught your eye?

Liitle women-bit frustrating i missed that .3 above high on ftse though :0)

As Melnibone has point out to me in the past - a profit is a profit is a profit when its taken, not just a postion!

Does anyone know what going on with DXNS - shut up suddenly - todays Shares mag are negative on this one.

Was going to purchase DXNS yesterday, but decided not to as felt retailers not having a good christmas.

Having said that, if I still did CFDs I would consider going short on this one now!

Found out why from the traders room: http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200312181103434165T.html

Running a long on RANK, interesting early morning buying
Long term Short on WH Smiths, profit warning expected
Short Mytravel Need I say more
And Short Burberry, never did like that Tartan

LW - on a previous days trading thread you said you had a price target of 475p on LLOY. I would be grateful if you could explain to me how you came to this figure. I have done quite well out of LLOY in the past but always appear to sell out too early.

18/12 12:00 ANALYST RATINGS CHANGES AS OF 1200 GMT

BROKER & NEW RATING (FROM) TARGET (PREVIOUS)
COMPANY
=========================================================
ABN Amro:
Heineken Reduce (Hold)
=========================================================
Cheuvreux:
Bouygues Underperform (Outperform)
ILOG Underperform (Outperform)
=========================================================
Citigroup Smith Barney:
Misys Hold (Sell)
=========================================================
CSFB:
Unite 210P (185P)
Misys 190P (210P)
=========================================================
Degroof:
Bekaert Hold (Accumulate)
=========================================================
Fideuram Wargny:
Elior Buy (Hold) EUR7.8 (EUR7)
=========================================================
Goldman Sachs:
Amadeus In-Line
=========================================================
Ibersecurities:
Bankinter EUR39.8 (EUR34.9)
=========================================================
JP Morgan:
Vodafone Overweight (Neutral) 160P (140P)
Telekom Austria Overweight (Neutral)
Telecom Italia Underweight (Neutral)
TeliaSonera Underweight (Neutral)
Bouygues EUR33 (EUR30)
Yukos US$14 (US$15.5)
=========================================================
Lehman Bros:
Allianz Equalweight (Underweight)
Infineon EUR16.5 (EUR17.5)
Misys 265P
=========================================================
Merrill Lynch:
Balfour Beatty Neutral
DS Smith Buy (Neutral)
=========================================================
Morgan Stanley:
Royal & Sun Equalweight (Underweight)
Misys 270P
=========================================================
Pictet:
Converium CHF72 (CHF70)
=========================================================
Puilaetco:
Delhaize EUR46 (EUR47)
=========================================================
UBS:
Generali Neutral (Buy)
Cementos Portland Neutral (Buy)
Folli-Follie Neutral (Buy)
Opap Neutral (Buy)
Hanson 430P (365P)
Stada EUR50 (EUR45)
=========================================================

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 18, 2003 07:00 ET (12:00 GMT)

It was just a figure I pulled out of the sky!

I have bought & sold LLOY a lot earlier this year and regretted not hanging on to them each time - so this time I thought I'd sit it out and see.... I believe that despite all the problems the banks make, they just write thier debt off, and move on, so long term will always do well! Of course there are plenty of people (companies) out there they can charge to make up for their mistakes.

thanks lw, i was hoping for a more scientific method, but ho hum. I intend to sit on them until the results and the yr end divi and then see where they are

Sorry - but I also think LLOY has taken a lot of unjustified flak which is why the shares were doing so badly..... (Unlike ANL which was justified !)

I tend to agree, I dare say we have been in and out of lloyds at similar times. It will be interesting to see what they do with the cash they now have - share buy backs/special divi???

jobless 353k, exp 365k!

Reopened my CFD account! Long HBOS,DXNS,ULVR and short LLOY. Scapled a long ICI already, will only scalp today as got to go out for a hour or two soon.

why short lloy???

Just for a very quick profit with the CFD! Trouble is they are quoting .25 higher than current prices - so I'm not happy as this is my profit!

Just turned LLOY arround, and now long!

Should have stayed short LLOY - just wiped short profit out!

Amazing..today BRT announces a return to paying divi's
a few days ago I noticed a rise in buying of and the price of
their shares, apparently for no reason.....How often do
private investors see this happen? - Yes I know frequently!

Gap up open Through Ed,s 10150, The US crave 10200 possibly!

pboy
Did u see the spike down just b4 - i got a short which proved profitable.now to follow the trend.

FTSE is going for 4400 - fingers crossed!

Taken this opportunity of the FTSE at 4400 to take
the last of my profit and close my last long.

Not saying that the FTSE is going down, but near the
top of the trend channel the risk is to the downside
unless you get a trend channel breakout. As I've
said before, all is not lost if we get the breakout,
it usually comes back to test the previous resistance
as a support at least once, which will give me another
entry point.

So I ve not gone all bearish, just adjusting position
to the risk/reward situation.

Good luck to anyone staying with the longs.

Melnibone.

Melnobone i agree totally with your advice -if you go in with a gunslinger attitude you may win once or twice but ultimately the market will eat you alive.
What are your views on dow today.?

rgds
zarif

Taken this opportunity of the FTSE at 4400 to take
the last of my profit and close my last long.

Not saying that the FTSE is going down, but near the
top of the trend channel the risk is to the downside
unless you get a trend channel breakout. As I've
said before, all is not lost if we get the breakout,
it usually comes back to test the previous resistance
as a support at least once, which will give me another
entry point.

So I ve not gone all bearish, just adjusting position
to the risk/reward situation.

Good luck to anyone staying with the longs.

Melnibone.

Taken this opportunity of the FTSE at 4400 to take
the last of my profit and close my last long.

Not saying that the FTSE is going down, but near the
top of the trend channel the risk is to the downside
unless you get a trend channel breakout. As I've
said before, all is not lost if we get the breakout,
it usually comes back to test the previous resistance
as a support at least once, which will give me another
entry point.

So I ve not gone all bearish, just adjusting position
to the risk/reward situation.

Good luck to anyone staying with the longs.

Melnibone.

Don't know why that post came out 3 times.

I didn't do it intentionally.

Spooky.

Melnibone

Melnibone, good for the figures :-)

Hi zarif,

I'm not really much of an expert on the DOW, not much
of one on the FTSE come to think of it :-), but if you
twist my arm I would say that if the S@P/DOW continue to
rally, then I would look for highs of 1085/10,235 and then a
sell off.

If it doesn't go higher I would expect a retreat from 10,200
on profit taking and a retest of the new 1075 support,
previously resistance, on the S@P.

Don't know if that fits in with your own views, but there you
have it.

Melnibone.

Thanks melnibone same guesstimates as mine. I believe we are due a correction soon as things are getting silly but then again all we can say is that the market is always right!!!!

rgds
zarif

FRI FTSE PP

R2 4438
R1 4417
PP 4383
S1 4362
S2 4328

Close above Thu R2 after gaining 3.2pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart still in uptrend targeting 4415, brk of uptrend at 4390!

very small S&P short

Nice rise on the FTSE today which has also helped my EZJ longs which I hope to hold until 500p. What has happened to ETL ? Seem to be stuck in the lower 40's !!

S@P is testing the 1085 resistance level.

US has got 2 Hrs left to decide what it wants to do.
Take profits, or push on to a new leg up so that
the Fund Managers can end on super end of year
reports for their clients; oh, not forgetting those
fat bonus's they'll collect before taking it back
after the hols so that they can cover the same ground all over again.

Bush would like that, nice rising markets into his re-election
campaign whilst his buddy, Al Greenspan keeps the rates low
to get some inflation going and fuel some more spending.

Dollar will keep going down at these low interest levels. If the
Euro gets much stronger it's going to effect exports and may increase
pressure on Europe to keep interest rates lower, or, heaven forbid,
start cutting them again. That'll please Gordon, especially now
they've changed the rules so that the BOE will meet re-rigged inflation targets
without having to raise rates and further increase the strength of
the pound and the difficulty of exports.

Cynical? Moi. ;-)


Melnibone.

US is still climbing

Yes, I've been watching the price whilst reading some other stuff.

Seems as if the S@P is visiting the highs it opened
at on Monday. Be interesting to see what happens when it
hits them. If it actually closes over the 1085/1086 area
we'll have to start strapping our horns on again. :-)

FTSE after hours trading doesn't seem impressed with it,
it's only a smidgin over 4400.

Melnibone.

Yes, as it passed 1085 I switched from Short to Long, and have recovered most of my losses! I'm watching as I expect to close my position any second, but it still seems to be creeping upwards.

I presume there is still 30 min to go before close.