I know there's an existing thread for TEP, but I'm blowed if I can find it.
Anyway, things aren't looking too good for this share at the moment. Been on a downward spiral for some weeks, after hitting over 4.
Very low volume today, and sells seem to equal buys, so why the continuing drop? Seriously thinking of getting rid, and taking what is now a very small (and I mean small!) profit.

Any experts on TEP like to add their two pennorth?

Princess

princess to find an existing thread go to the quote page aqnd type in the EPIC and all existing threads are listed at the bottom of the page - this share is also discussed on goldfingers thread

The downward trend could be BT introducing a new pricing structure which will reduce their call charges and increase line rental. This will hit companies like TEP which sell their products using a BT line. This will make their pricing less compatitive as customers will have to pay a higher BT line rental.

Thanks Fundamentalist, found it - it's easy when you know how!

Hi Folks
Haven't posted on here before, and, though 50 years old now, am a newcomer to the stockmarket, investing in a very small way, finding mt feet.
Am a distributor with this company, and am baffled as to why this share price is falling.
Slmchow - this is interesting what you say re BT, but if you are saying that BT will increase line rental to all their customers, whilst lowering their call charges, I would agree that this may result in less of a saving by going with TEP. However, the basic premise that BT aren't allowed to undercut companies such as TEP still means savings can be made.
Also a big selling point for us at present, is that we can offer the cheapest Gas and Electricity for domestic users in the UK, so customer gathering is just as easy now. So why the share price drop ?

mentalist

It was on one of the broad sheet it was a week or two ago. BT is to do away with the standard charges all together and move all those who are still on it on to their BT talk together options which has a line rental of 11.50 a month and call charges are half that of the existing standard rate I which I can remember which paper and when. It is BT fighting back I will call it

My wife sign up to be distributer in November. Tried to get me to change from our BT option 2 to more talk option 2. I did my calculation and I said that yeah it will save me about 1 a month and I will have to have a pig hanging off the wall for that and sign up to the gas electric to get the multi service discount. So she tried to get me to sign up to gas and electric. Yes you definately save on gas but this is off set but the more expensive electric in our region. Yes overall I save a couple of quid compared to my exisit supplier which I have a discount on dual fuel, further discount for doing all th billing etc on line and got the prices capped for the next few years.

She gave up the distributship as she said if she can't sell to me she go no chance.

A lot of people are asking why the weakness in the price of TEP, well I for one dont think it is anything other than general market sentiment of a weak nature that we have seen over the past few weeks. When this one moves it tends to move in a big way either way.

Its certainly not a different company than it was 3 weeks back.

This is what Robbie Burns the Frequenttrader had to say about it today......


The Mail seems to be tipping my whole portfolio at the moment - they tipped Telecom Plus last week. Maybe it will be Vanco or Fenner at the weekend?

Talking of Fenner that's up a bit today and it slowly seems to be gathering a head of steam. If we can clear 105p, 120 looks on the cards.

Ashtenne continues to go higher as does Gyrus. Carrs Milling should report soon and that should lift the shares. AMEC looks strong.

Telecom Plus is suffering from weakness but it always does when there's not been news for a while, a statement is due soon and that should help lift the shares again.ENDS

A statement soon. Off the cuff Im not sure wether this is a trading statement or part year results, either way Im sure we will get very positive comments.

Stick in there.

cheers GF.

Hi...slmchow...mistake tell not sell...but agree it is mnot the doddle that its made out to be...and there is mighty competition amongst telco companies,mobile and landline...not helped with TELE 2 on every second ad on tele.

To me Robbie Burn on TEP has to be taken with a pinch of salt as he is a distributer of TEP with shares option. His RTD his was suppose to have great promise but now sold out. It is go to take profits but not talking up one week and selling the next.

Remember everyone at the end of the day is looking after their own portfolio first .

Hi Guys, yes there is a TP thread,go to search and you will find it..MM's are shaking up this share at the moment..Nigel Wray whom has been an holder for some years now bought in again not too long ago which should tell you this is long term..Tipped at 6 this year..Results are out soon and are again expected to do well.

As for the distributor side of things to which i have been for 5 years all i can say is things are going very well indeed..The lady whom joined and then packed in had an hard time with you i think!!We are the cheapest energy suppliers and if you are with a monopoly supplier you will easily save 100+ just on energy..Remember that we are a referal marketing biz which means it doesnt matter how many competitiors are out there because every new exec will sign up thier friends and family because hopefully they will be trusted to sell savings not just for commission..Also most of the UK havent changed anything yet so there is plenty more for everyone..When the penny finally drops with these people they will change and we will always be around to mop them up..


Mark

If anyone is interested in a free quote to see what can be saved then please e-mail me with your contact details..save money and help T+ to push up this share price..By the way did you know that if you hold more than 2500 shares you are eligable for FREE line rental on one of our mobile tarriffs??

mark@utilitiesplus.info

I see the Big Cheese has just bought 60,000.

For your info:



NOTIFICATION OF INTERESTS OF DIRECTORS AND CONNECTED PERSONS

1. Name of company

Telecom Plus PLC

2. Name of director

Charles Wigoder

3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of holding of the shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a non-beneficial interest or in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's spouse or children under the age of 18 or in respect of a non-beneficial interest

In respect of 2 above

4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of shares held by each of them (if notified)


(a) Charles Wigoder 13,006,041
(b) Mrs Elizabeth Wigoder 142,500
(c) HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Limited 500,000
(d) Charles Wigoder Foundation (non-beneficial) 1,500,000
Total 15,148,541


5. Please state whether notification relates to a person(s) connected with the director named in 2 above and identify the connected person(s)

As in 2 above

6. Please state the nature of the transaction. For PEP transactions please indicate whether general/single co PEP and if discretionary/non discretionary

Purchase

7. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired

60,000

8. Percentage of issued class

0.1%

9. Number of shares/amount of stock disposed -

10. Percentage of issued class -

11. Class of security

Ordinary Shares of 5p each

12. Price per share

50,000 @ 323p 10,000 @ 324p

13. Date of transaction

30 March 2004

14. Date company informed

30 March 2004

15. Total holding following this notification


(a) Charles Wigoder 13,006,041
(b) Mrs Elizabeth Wigoder 142,500
(c) HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Ltd 500,000
(d) Charles Wigoder Foundation (non-beneficial) 1,500,000
(e) Jersey House (Developments) Limited 60,000
Total 15,208,541


16. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification


(a) Charles Wigoder 21.14%
(b) Mrs Elizabeth Wigoder 0.23%
(c) HSBC Global Custody Nominee(UK)Ltd 0.81%
(d) Charles Wigoder Foundation (non-beneficial) 2.44%
(e) Jersey House (Developments) Limited 0.10%
Total 24.72%


If a director has been granted options by the company please complete the following boxes.

17. Date of grant

18. Period during which or date on which exercisable

19. Total amount paid (if any) for grant of the option

20. Description of shares or debentures involved: class, number

21. Exercise price (if fixed at time of grant) or indication that price is to be fixed at time of exercise

22. Total number of shares or debentures over which options held following this notification

23. Any additional information

24. Name of contact and telephone number for queries

B. Korel - 020 8955 5000

25. Name and signature of authorised company official responsible for making this notification

B. Korel

Date of Notification

31 March 2004

The FSA does not give any express or implied warranty as to the accuracy of this document or material and does not accept any liability for error or omission. The FSA is not liable for any damages (including, without limitation, damages for loss of business or loss of profits) arising in contract, tort or otherwise from the use of or inability to use this document, or any material contained in it, or from any action or decision taken as a result of using this document or any such material.



SCHEDULE 11



NOTIFICATION OF INTERESTS OF DIRECTORS AND CONNECTED PERSONS

1. Name of company

Telecom Plus PLC

2. Name of director

Keith Stella

3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of holding of the shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a non-beneficial interest or in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's spouse or children under the age of 18 or in respect of a non-beneficial interest

In respect of 2 above

4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of shares held by each of them (if notified)


(a) Keith Stella 40,000
(b) Charles Wigoder Foundation (non-beneficial) 1,500,000


5. Please state whether notification relates to a person(s) connected with the director named in 2 above and identify the connected person(s)

As in 2 above

6. Please state the nature of the transaction. For PEP transactions please indicate whether general/single co PEP and if discretionary/non discretionary

Purchase

7. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired

3,500

8. Percentage of issued class

0.01%

9. Number of shares/amount of stock disposed -

10. Percentage of issued class -

11. Class of security

Ordinary Shares of 5p each

12. Price per share

323p

13. Date of transaction

30 March 2004

14. Date company informed

30 March 2004

15. Total holding following this notification


(a) Keith Stella 43,500
(b) Charles Wigoder Foundation (non-beneficial) 1,500,000


16. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification


(a) Keith Stella 0.07%
(b) Charles Wigoder Foundation (non-beneficial) 2.44%


If a director has been granted options by the company please complete the following boxes.

17. Date of grant

18. Period during which or date on which exercisable

19. Total amount paid (if any) for grant of the option

20. Description of shares or debentures involved: class, number

21. Exercise price (if fixed at time of grant) or indication that price is to be fixed at time of exercise

22. Total number of shares or debentures over which options held following this notification

23. Any additional information

24. Name of contact and telephone number for queries

B. Korel - 020 8955 5000

25. Name and signature of authorised company official responsible for making this notification

B. Korel

Date of Notification

31 March 2004

Tplus Guy

Yes TEP depend on famaily and friends sentiments to help their family member and mates out to achieve sales. That is why in a way its a pyramid system. Everyone they sign up as a distributer sign up their friend and family member who all contribute to the guy above their cut of the commission. Like all pyramid system it has to give some where along the line. Like less competitive prices to the messes so that so that the numerous levels of the pyrimid can gets their cut of the commission from, in this case their friends and families monthly phone and utility bills.

Can the more enlightened BB posters explain to me why the price of this share drops on what I would think are good results?

The drop is about 3.5% while the yield is about 3.3%. The ext div date waits until AGM to be announced.

The PEG and ROE on these results, to me, still appear reasonable and the companys potential seems good.

I note a little reservation about returns on Gas but will await price changes.

The charts seem to me to be quite reasonable alos. (Todays prices etc. not taken into consideration.

I hold 1493 of these shares at a profit and will continue to hold for a while.

But would appreciate the thoughts of others.

Telecom Plus FY profit up 90 pct on strength in virtual network businessAFX
LONDON (AFX) - Telecom Plus PLC, a UK-based multi-utility provider, reported a 90 pct rise in pretax profit in the year to March, fuelled by a strong performance in its virtual network business.Pretax profit at the company that provides gas, electricity, telephony and internet services jumped to 10.6 mln stg in the 12 months to March 31 from 5.6 mln a year earlier, while full-year sales rose to 81.8 mln stg from 58.0 mln.Operating profit in Telecom plus' virtual network business rose 65 pct to 13.8 mln stg, partially offset by a higher investment within its distribution business, the company said.Telecom Plus had 178,000 customers at the end of March - compared with 134,000 a year earlier - subscribing to over 312,000 services compared with 225,000 the year before.Margins in fixed telephony, mobile telephony, internet and electricity all remain 'extremely satisfactory', the company said.*******But its gas supply business is suffering from 'severe' pressure on margins due to the sharp increase in wholesale prices which have NOT YET BEEN FULLY PASSED ONTO CUSTOMERS.*******

Forgot to mentions Buys 144,000 to Sells 68,000 (Approx) so far today. Interesting and odd to me!!!

If you look at the last few years history this always happens at results time..Im no expert in shares at all but i would presume it would be the profit takers whom jump in a week before results for a quick kill..Give it a week or so to see it climb,,again always happens..

Still going down, any views to the next support?

If it goes through 294, might hold as sitting on ma support ?

What is the bad news on this share? Can't Find Any. Turnover up, Profits up, Dividend up. Know it went ex-dividend 23/6/04 . But forcasts good, business model looks good.

Oh that we had the answer - I like you am totally confused following all the good news you have highlighted.

didn't they say GAS dept profits were severely affected?

Hi Folks,,,like you i cannot understand why it has fallen so low..Maybe it will drop down to the 240 level before picking up,,who knows..It certainly is a time to buy and with our results it is mind boggling why people are asking if this company is worth its price???Glad im not a professional share trader, i would be swinging from a tree right now!!!

Hang tight and hold for long term is my view.

Typlus Guy - If you were a trader and swinging from a tree I have no doubt you would be shaking it at the same time. I have had their telephone provision for 3 months and cut in outgoing is over 50% plus amazing saving with metronet.co.uk as Broadband supplier (only 10 per month for up to 200 MB usage thereafter 0.25p per MB. I am saving so much I can afford to be patient with TEP

I think this share is starting its recovery. Good Pegs, Yield 4.4 -4.9 Well covered. I think the drop in price was over reaction to warning on one part of its earnings.



I have a holding bought at 244p

Bought in @ 241 this am with medium to long term view. Does any one know when the results are out?

Next interims due Dec 2004

I cannot find anything positive in the current chart!

The downtrend looks to be intact.

Andy. A problem with charts relates to the period over which you show it. My vies is that Telecom is in a long term uptrend going back to 2002. The share got somewhat overheated in 2003 and I suspect has now overshot the long-term trend line. MoneyAM only gives you 1 year so this is based on memory; perhaps someone can demonstrate it factually.

I bought TEP in January 2003 around 160p as part of a package of shares based on Shares-assisted research. I decided to also become a Distributor; however I made a lot more money out of the investments so that has gone on the back-burner. I sold out at prices between 330p and 390p around the turn of the year, not because I had lost faith in them but they lost out in contention for funds, primarily to ASOS (ASC). The latter are contender fro share of the year (TEP did pretty well last year); I am sticking with the uptrend but am keeping an eye on TEP, amongst others, for a switch when ASC in turn gets over-heated (which I believe to be inevitable).

My argument is that none of the fundamentals for TEP have changed. The gas market problem was short term based on the small margin between wholesale and consumer prices which we all know is being corrected. Many people don't understand TEP, believing it to be vulnerable to pressures in the utility market. In one sense it is, but this is outweighed by their network marketing model, unique amongst quoted companies. The volume of salesman is growing all the time at negligible cost to the company and they are continually growing the number of services to offer their customer base. I believe thay will continue with their 40% growth rate for the foreseeable future. Yet the PE is down to 20 and the peg factor to 0.25! Price to sales is 1.8. Part of the problem is lack of new flow and it may be that there is nothing much until the interims in December. If these confirm the above projections then they must return to a 2004/5 PE of not less than 20, i.e. a current PE of 28 and a price of more like 340p. Personally, I hope that the rise is delayed so that I have funds to switch in. I actually feel very confident indeed with this perspective so if ann bb reader differs it would be helpful to know. I agree with Fred1new.

azhar and rampage. Having completed the above note, it has struck me as relevant to investing timing that the company's Express Day, attended by well into four figures of delegates, is on 17th October. This is times partly to allow the half-year figures to be discussed; these are then effectively in the public domain. Last year there was an announcement on 17th September on trading upping the forecast and announcing an increased interim dividend. It may well be, although this is surmise, that news giving encouragement to the share price is with us sooner or later. I hope personally not given that my funds are tied up. One thing I am very positive about is that the shares are currently at the bottom of a trough - see my previous entry for a six month prediction.

EW,

Ok here's the longer term chart.



IMHO the downtrand that started in January this year is still intact.

I'm not sure TEP's business model is as sucessful as is being made out, or at least was, previously. Customer sign up is slow, and the customer base is only growing steadily. As an example, Carphone Warehouse signed up 50,000 landline customers to their service in less than three months, whereas TEP took over 3 years to signup 120,000 customers.

More nad more competition is entering the fray, and now British GAS has achieved the landmark of being the first alternaive telephony provider to BT to provide a complete service to the home, ie they do not require their customers to rent the line from BT!

I am a TEP telephony customer, and I have checked the gas and electric tariffs. and they are not as competitive as they were, but are cheaper then my supplier, and I may well switch. However, they never try and entice me, nothing included with my monthly phone bill to tempt me, which seems strange!

looks nasty. Looking at the director dealings we see even they thought 400+ was a bit too high a bit too quick. They have been adding to anything below 350. Me thinks things should start picking up as todays price is 52 week low and considering that there is nothing out there in the public domain to keep the price down.

Name Date Type Amount Price Value Holding (%)

Charles Wigoder 08/07/2004 Purchase 100000 245 245000 15348541 24.957
Charles Wigoder 06/04/2004 Purchase 10000 313 31300 15248541 24.794
Charles Wigoder 06/04/2004 Purchase 30000 315 94500 15238541 24.778
Keith Stella 30/03/2004 Purchase 3500 323 11305 43500 0.071
Charles Wigoder 30/03/2004 Purchase 10000 324 32400 15208541 24.729
Charles Wigoder 30/03/2004 Purchase 50000 323 161500 15198541 24.713
Dominic Wheatley 22/01/2004 Sale 25000 402 100500 243060 0.386
Peter Nutting 22/01/2004 Sale 100000 402 402000 851750 1.349
Charles Wigoder 03/12/2003 Sale 1325000 350 4637500 15148541 24.88
John Levin 28/11/2003 Sale 30000 349 104700 2257996 3.709

Turnover (m)
2000 19.20
2001 28.11
2002 32.68
2003 58.04
2004 81.83
2005 ?

It certainly looks interesting. Growth year on year. These figures now explain the above graph by Andy.

Andy,
Thank you for the extended graph which bears out my comments. There are several ways of reading this: (1) Project the slow uptrend from September 2001 to sept 2002 giving a current value of about 160p - this would be a cautious view given the improvement in subsequent trading; (2) project the improved uptrend from Sept 2002 to July 2003 giving a current value of about 350p - this would be a reasonable view reflecting the increased trading during the period, subsequently strengthened; (3) Combine those two epriods on an exponential basis reflecting the exponential increase int rading over the period to early 2004, giving a current value of about 400p - an optimistic view that would be only viable if the exponential increase were to be maintained. There is little doubt that the shares became over-heated in the second half of 2003; on any of my projections we would be in a correction phase, probably nearing its end. The missing piece of data, obviously, is current trading levels. My preferred option (2, above) probably implies turnover of between 105 and 115K this year with corresponding pbt increase.

Your comparison with Carphone Warehouse, indeed the supermarkets, is interesting. These services are launched with heavy advertising expenditure and point of sale support. TEP advertising revenue is negligible as they are relying on their distributors, paid on a commission only basis, to introduce new customers. However, their sales increase should be better than a straight line given that each distibutor is also incentivised to introduce new distributors as well as customers and each customer is also a prospect for additional services. I do agree that they do not make full use of their monthly bill for promotional purposes. This month, though, their broadband offering is well explained and I am in the process of transferring, broadband having belatedly arrived in the backwoods of East Sussex. The BG offering is potentially good news as I would guess that TEP are already talking to them (and BT) to reduce their direct costs.

Azhar. Your director purchasing summary is very helpful. I agree with your reading. The director purchases support a price of 3+, with 4 being too soon. For those who bought in at around 4, most certainly hold but better accumulate to bring the average purchase price down. On my projections above, look for 4 later in 2005.

Fred1new. Fascinated by your graphs. What is the source for an explanation? I think the momentum graph is particularly helpful in sorting out the wheat of new investment from the chaff of short-term trading and price manipulation by market makers.

Eric

EWRobson, you may be right. T+ was down further earlier but finished the day in blue.

Hi guys and gals,,what can i say that hasnt already been said..Do not worry about competition and T+'s position for the future..Our results so far have been great and there are many new services planned,although they do take quite a while to roll out.This share in my eyes is long term,we execs really need to do more.

The problem is with new exec sign ups.As prices rise and money becomes tight there are more people looking at a biz with a difference so new execs will always come along,BUT they all want to be rich over night and in Network Marketing this does not happen..They must be patient and learn their craft well to bring in good results..

Anyway,i can only see up for this company,we will just have to wait and see!!

we have movement guys. Recovery has begun as stated above by other posters.

It was tipped in Investors Chronicle today.

No doubt they are right on this one. Well undervalued in my opinion looking at their track record.

Frampton, anything else tipped in the IC?

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in Telecom Plus made early progress after the Investors Chronicle advised readers to 'buy' the stock.
The IC said concerns about the rising oil price look overdone as the company has little in common with other alternative telecoms operators, and only a small proportion of profits come from gas. Given the growth potential, the rating looks too cheap, the magazine concluded.

Telecom shares were 5 pence firmer at 245 by 7.46 am.

Sorry guys if this has already been posted as it is an old article but neverthless an intresting read. It was rated as a hold when it was 300+.

Telecom Plus gas concerns are mostly hot air
Published: 12:36 Wed 9 June 2004
By Joanne Wallen, Associate Editor (Citywire)

Those looking for the negatives in Citywire tip Telecom Plus' results today will spot the margin squeeze in the multi-utility company's gas business, but there are enough positives to outweigh this issue.

Chief executive Charles Wigoder told Citywire that since the wholesale price of gas has risen pretty much in line with oil prices, Telecom Plus (TEP) and all of the other residential gas companies are to some extent having to swallow decreased margins, since they cannot possibly pass on the entire hike to customers in one hit.

Wigoder said the gas companies would 'create a political storm' were they to increase prices to customers by 20-30% in one hit. What will happen instead is that prices will rise more steadily this year and next, and that margins will catch up in the longer term.

Not that Wigoder is overly concerned. Gas represents only a very small part of the business, which offers customers electricity, fixed telephony, mobile telephony and internet services as well. Margins in all of the other businesses remain, 'extremely satisfactory.'

Depending on where the commodity price of gas ends up this year, there could be a 1-2 million impact on Telecom Plus' profits. This is not insignificant for a company that in the year to March had profits of 10.6 million, up 90% from last year on turnover up 41% at 81.8 million.

However Wigoder points out that if Telecom Plus is feeling a little pain, the other utility companies are feeling a whole lot more. This is because Telecom Plus prides itself on having by far the lowest cost base and cost of customer acquisition of any of its competitors, and because it reckons it is by far the most efficient of the players.

'I'd be ashamed to call myself a businessman if I couldn't run a business more efficiently than the former monopolies. But we are an order of magnitude more efficient,' said Wigoder. Not that Wigoder should be ashamed to call himself a businessman anyway. He was after all the founder of The People's Phone Company, which he sold to Vodafone in 1996 for 77 million.

Earnings per share to March were 12.2p up from 6.8p and the company is paying a final dividend of 5.5p making a total of 10p for the year, up from 5.75p.

The number of subscribers increased by 33% to 178,000 and the number of services provided rose by 39% to 312,000. This reflects the company's success in selling more than one service to each customer Customers are recruited by agents or 'distributors', who basically sign up their friends and acquaintances in a sort of multi-level marketing arrangement, hence keeping the costs low. In the last quarter alone the company signed 1,500 new distributors, taking the total to 13,000.

Telecom Plus shares are down 10.5p at 313.5p.

Citywire Verdict:
We tipped the shares in May 2002 as a good buy at 109.5p and suggested taking a 'careful look' at whether to book some profits at 268p last November.

Clearly the gas margins have shaken investors this morning. However house broker KBC Peel Hunt has left its estimates unchanged. While it will wait to see how the next six months pan out in terms of gas prices, it thinks the company's 'visibility, yield and track record,' make it still an attractive investment.

At the current price shares are rated at 20 times this year's forecast earnings falling to 16 times next year. The prospective dividend yield is 3.85%.

It may not be the right time for new money, but with the dividend and the general outlook it should be reasonable to hold for now.

Azhar - sorry I don't know about other tips in the IC, I don't get it - I just noticed the Tplus recomendation on MoneyAM site under friday's newspaper comments round up.

Decent volume going through. Up and awaay slowly but surely.

azhar and Tplus Guy

Very interestin contributions. The article was a good summary, recommending hold at 300p plus. The price has withered for lack of news plus larger investors taking profits.

I think that today's trading is very instructive and proably typical. Excluding some early trades which are not on MoneyAM's list, there were 37 buys with average volume of 1100 shares and 13 sales of average volume 10,500 shares. I suggest that most of the former are TEP distributors, possibly investing their income; the latter are larger investors who are not as close to the action. To repeat a point already made, the gas problem is probably already going away. Taking what might be a pessimistic view of a shortfall of 2 mill. on profits, this will reduce a projected 4m increase in profits. PE will still drop to 16 and 2005 profits should make good the shortfall.

Its worth taking good not of Tplus Guy's comments because I believe him to be representative of TEP distributors. They do really understand network marketing and the cumulative effect of new distributors, also the policy of adding other income streams. TEP is not just telephone, or just utilities, it is a network marketing company whose primary asset is its distributors. Some fall by the wayside (like me) but there are many who are doing very well thank you and are, or expect to, making a good pile. Stupid writing positive stuff when I am out of the share at present, but I am benefiting from the exchange of ideas while I wait for ASOS to start getting over-cooked and then doing some switching, including TEP.

Eric

Another tick up guys. A massive spread tho. I think the big spread keeps away T traders which suits me fine as I'm a medium to long term holder.

yet another day with a decent rise. Is there something happening in the background ?

azhar
Tplus Guy will hopefully comment. From my own experience of TEP, we are moving into the time of year when distributors are thinking about performance - the forthcoming Express Day is the big booster day of the year. The buying volume is not that significant but there are a lot if them - I suspect these are mainly distributors wanting a stake in their own company before the trading statement. My earlier comment was that TEP had fallen below their long-term trend line - they should not be below 300p, as instanced by Director buying at about that level.
Eric

Projected PEg of .8 Projected Yield about 5.5 can't be bad. TA looks promising. Should help fill a few Xmas stockings.

Yes your right Azhar,,biggest event of the year coming up for the execs always gets our juices running which in turn promotes growth..What i wonder will they come out with this year??

Another rise. it certainly is looking promising.

Looks like its on the road to recovery,,hope you all held tight!!!

Still here TPlus Guy, Always new it was undervalued when it double bottomed <240s. Bought in and hold medium to long term. I couldn't find anything negative to justify the low price which is the reason why I bought in. To be honest IC did the trick to make everybody realise.

WOW!!! It's certainly motorimg now! Anybody know why, after such a long time in the doldrums?

IC article did the trick but it was well undervalued based on figures

azhar - thanks. Sorry, I didn't read your previous post. DOH!!

Princess,,i hope you held tight!!! Express day is round the corner and i can only guess at what is going to happen this year,,new services i hope??? I think it should steady out over 3 after that..

Tplus Guy

Not sure why it should steady out. Fundamentals are very good: PEG Factor, Price to Sales, even growth in yield. A key factor is whether the 40% sales growth is maintained; there was a big jump last year in profit and we know that, whilst gas has held up profitibility this year, that is temporary. So that underscores a steady rise until the results - any new positive news should just accelerate progress towards the 4 achieved last year.

Eric

Id like to agree with you EW but i havent seen any figures recently of customer and exec growth..But i will be at express day and will tell all on my return.

profit takers moving in. I was expecting that it would now stabalise around 300 until further news from express day etc.. but it is now retracing. Are we heading back to where we started i.e. 240s? Any views

azhar

I see there is no comment to your query a couple of days ago. It seems that the rise was triggered by the IC article. Transactions are just a trickle - if the sells outweight the buys the mm's just mark it down to attract the buyers back in. I think the share is just meandering around waiting for some positive (or negative) news. Tplusguy reports that distributer expectancy is high and expects a positive move on express day next month. As a medium to long term holder, don't worry. I would prefer it to stay down for a while to allow other announcements to get out of the way before I commit some funds.

Eric

Thanks EWR

we are on the move again guys. Maybe this time it will go beyond 300 and stabalise. Express day not far off either.

azhar

Sorry, but pathetic volumes again. mm's are just moving price to attract buyers and/or sellers in. If you are in, as I think you are, just hold and don't take much attention to daily movements based on very small volumes. If you are out and have some money, get in if you can wait a month or two. If you are out and fully committed, like me, just wait and hope that the price doesn't move too much in the next three weeks. Then solid news from express day and we are up and away together!

EWR I have been in since I stated last @ 241 p/s. Will continue to hold until it reaches 350-400 range. As long as nothing untowards happens I have a very strong gut feeling and of course from track record of the company that we will go beyond 400 by early 2005.

azhar
A well timed buy. Agree your assessment - mostly gut, a fair amount of heart and just a bit of head! Hope our princess is still in!
Eric

Flat lining for past week. Well atleast its stable.

azhar

4000 executives expected at Express Day on 17th October. 'Important improvements in services' to be announced. Any announcements there are effectively in public domain so it would be reasonable to expect a significant boost in share price as Exec's rush to buy and positive press comment follows. I am looking to move some funds currently tied up to TEP a few days earlier. Nothing to induce buying at the moment.

Eric

EW... retracing again. Do you recon it's heading back to recent lows again. I think ppl are worried what the express day will bring on Sunday and also high gas prices. T+ also increased gas price by 10% but still are the cheapest. This increase will ease issues with revenues etc.. Any views?

This always happens before express day so dont pannick my friend.We hit our low and can now look forward to steady upward movement..Express will bring a few surprises im sure..

Good ones I hope TPlus... I bought these @ 241 and then topped up @283 so my profits are becoming slimmer by the day.

azhar

In the end of the day, the key question for T+ is the financials. The year to end-March saw turnover up 40% and profits up 80%. I have not followed the share closely enough to judge the likely t/o and profit increase for the interims; I expect there to be a clear indication on trading at express day, probably followed by a press release in order to treat all shareholders the same. If the 40% is repeated together with a 40% increase in pbt, then the share price will soar. The reason is that the present pbt of about 22.5 would drop to 13.5 and then 8 given two years at 40%. It may be that the interims show the revenue growth but not pbt; however that doesn't mean that the 40% is not achieved for the year. I would be very surprised if, given the growth potential of network marketing, if the results do not condiderably exceed 30% pbt growth; that should see the price soaring over 3. Worth then taking a view on price potential before thinking about taking profits. Having said all the above, I have not gone back into the shares as planned. The reason will be clear if you read the ASOS thread where we have been having a bit of fun spotting shares that have the potential to double as quickly as, or quicker than, ASC. I can see T+ adding 50% but not doubling; I would normally be very happy with that but we have a competetive, aggressive team that will not settle for anything less than double!

Good luck and give it a decent rise. I will look forward to reading Tplusguy's feedback.

Eric

"I can see T+ adding 50% but not doubling" sounds good to me Eric. it might double in few years time but not medium term. Climbing back up again today tho with low volumes. thanks for reassurances guys. After the express day how long after do they make the contents of the day public?

I will report to you all on Monday morning.Hang tight my friend

the chart still looks poor to me!

I'm afraid the increased competition may be taking it's toll on TEP.
Every man and his dog are now doing discount phone calls, and British Gas have become the first provider BT have allowed to provide the line right through to the customer's house.

I will watch the Express Day announcements with interest!

Considering switching my gas/electric to TEP, but waiting to see their tariff after ED first.

Andy, TELCOM PLUS don't just provide phone discounts but a whole raft of other things. I know the name is misleading.

andy

I don't know how well you know TEP but one must come back to is the fact that they are number 1, 2 and 3 a network marketing company. The two huge advantages are (1) that each distributor is recruiting other distributors as well as selling the products; (2) their admin costs are the lowest in the industry and their marketing costs are negligible - this is the reason why they can claim to be the lowest cost provider with confidence which in turn brings more customers. If you want a long term holding with a decent and growing yield and an average around 30% long term capital growth then you should have 10% of your portfolio in TEP. Not now close to the company but would be pretty confident that Tplusguy reports a significant new service of some kind on Monday.

Eric

Andy ..tarriff for G+E,wont change on ED,as it has just been altered...heavily indicated that small business,hotels will be an area we will be able to quote.

Express day update:
T+ have gone back to basics(thank god).
Mobile deals made simple,example 8 p/m rental and 8p per min to anyone including cross networks.
Landline,9.50 p/m and talk to anyone including mobiles,unlimited..This blows the competition away!!
Energy remains the same,best value in UK.
There are now buisiness tarrifs and i think commercial energy is around the corner..The infrestructure is in place.

Lots more and i shall let you know more when i can.

Tplusguy

Many thanks! Proves the point that there network amrketing style gives them the flexibility to outflank the competition. Any news on trading performance?

Eric

you got there b4 me EW.. re: trading performance???

From advfn

==
PremierPompey - 17 Oct'04 - 22:41 - 637 of 638


Hi guys
Went to Express day. Just driven 250 miles home so a bit tired but here's a brief run down from what was an extremely pleasant meeting:

Improvements to mobile tariffs, some really great tariffs which 'will blow the opposition out of the water'. The main bit being free calls and texts to other UWDC members.

Rebranding to Utility Warehouse in all matters other than the LSE listing. Rebranding of all services, eg. service plus becomes home phone.

Simplification of home phone tariffs with free calls to UWDC members on all options and the cheapest option 3 in the UK.

Reduced CVC and CGBs for new energy only customers - CW made it clear we don't want energy only customers at the moment.

Massive improvements to broadband, including free upgrade for 8 months.

Improved CGB bonuses for mobiles and broadband as free calls between mobiles should get whole families onto our package.

And the big one - expansion into business mobile market, undercutting the competiton significantly. Also great landline and broadband packages for businesses, including line rental. Packages are priced to show how much cheaper than BT they are. No business gas and electric until the wholesale market settles down.

There were of course many other things which will no doubt be mentioned in the statement.

1inamilion - 17 Oct'04 - 22:52 - 638 of 639


PremierPompey, thanks very much for the brief. Was there any mention of trading performance?

PremierPompey - 17 Oct'04 - 22:55 - 639 of 639


Not really. CW reaffirmed his total commitment to the company and also mentioned how valuable he believed the share options being issued at the moment were.

For what it's worth there is a real buzz about the whole thing at the moment, 4000 distributors there, all really starting to believe in it. Couple that with the fact that people can earn full time incomes from day 1 getting businesses on board, it all looked good to me.

==

from advfn
==
uchimata - 17 Oct'04 - 23:05 - 640 of 640


To back up what PremierPompey says...

What a fantastic Express Day with more massive opportunities for Distributors to share the excellent value that T+ offers its customers!

The shares will continue to be listed as Telecom Plus plc, but there will be new logo's and re-branding of services.

In brief:

MOBILES

New services (only available to new subscribers):

"FreeCall" offers unlimited free calls any time to other "FreeCall" subscribers.

"Freecall+" also gives unlimited free texts (for an extra 2 per month).

"Freecall++" also gives unlimited free calls from your FreeCall mobile to any Utility Warehouse Discount Club members registered Home landline number.

"ValueCall" offering low line rental (8 per month for SIM only mobiles) and fixed call rates (all "standard calls" are 8p / minute) including cross-network calls.

Great range of handsets FREE OF CHARGE (depending on minimum contract period chosen.)

Insurance against loss / damage of mobiles available on ALL mobiles offered.

LANDLINE

Cable customers can (at last) benefit from free calls to other Utility Warehouse customers - previously only available to BT line customers.

New Guarantee "Cheaper than BT or your whole bill is free".

"More Talk 3" reduced to 9.50 per month, making it substantially better value than other providers like Toucan, One-Tel, Talk-Talk (and over 90 p.a. cheaper than BT)

"Mobile Saver" option for 1.50 per month gives 25% saving on ALL CALLS to mobiles from your landline.

INTERNET

Broadband - up to 1Mbps service available now, 2Mbps on offer from January 2005. 512kbps for 19.95 - upgraded (at no extra charge until June 2005) to the 1Mbps as a special promotion.

New broadband service - MyDataSafe - remote automatic back-up of data files from home computer to secure server (only 3 per month)

ENERGY

And of course the cheapest domestic gas and electricity supplies.

Much more detail but The Utility Warehouse Discount Club is still on top of the game.

For ID's - a new recruitment website is being launched from January 2005. Hosted websites for qualified ID's now FREE!

Business - new range of services being launched from January 2005.

Doubtless I have missed some details, but the overall impression I had (along with the 4,000 or so Distributors at the Express Day) was that The Utility Warehouse Discount Club will go from strength to strength in 2005.

In case you have not already guessed, I am a shareholder, Distributor and customer of T+ and have been for over 4 years... and fairly "bullish" about the whole set-up :-)

azhar

Well done. That is to short-term projections as strategy is to tactics! Should be good press and price movement.

Eric

SP holding steady I would have thought with positive ED things should have started moving.

Started slipping again. any views?

Yes uncertainty ref the gas and elec prices,and what was said to the distributors,in effect,we wont pay you if you only sign up gas elec pon its own...got realise the money/margin is not there,and the telephony related products have got to take up profit slack in the short term...CW in effect has said we will not write bad business and really the shareprice should reflect this,by remaining steady or rising...CW is if nothing prudent and realistic.
Note I am an ID and shareholder,paid up not options

ED write up
http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html

A tickup. TEP is well undervalued and should be atleast 300+. Remember directors were buying in on the way down @323.

Another tickup today. holding steady at the moment. very light on volume

ED story appears to have been very positive and turned on the distributors which is the objective anyway. The lack of projections, though, means relatively little impact on price. Suspect not much movement before interims unless there is an earlier trading statement. The PE should drop to around 15 at current prices, price to sales drop to 1.5 and PEG remain below 0.4 On this basis price should return to levels earlier in the year.

Eric

Yes I hope so.

Yes a decent move up today. looking impressive now.

Very quite here. SP holding steady.

Interim x-div (4.5p) 10 - Dec - 2003
Payment date 05 - Jan - 2004

Next interim announcement 17 - Dec - 2004

azhar

Keeping an eye on you all! Wouldn't expect much movement either way before the interim post. That will be important and I would expect it to be positive. Most watchers of TEP assume they will be having difficulties with the competition in utilities not realising that they should really be the one and only share in a sector called network marketing. The ED briefing document was very professional and shows that Charles Wigoder and his management team are very much in control of events. Charles, in some ways, is the company and he is at pains to reinforce his commitment. His continuous buying of shares for family trusts supports this. You certainly get the impression that the success of the company is the really important thing for him, together with making his successful distributors millionaires as well (plus the odd shareholder, who in many cases, are the same people what with option schemes, loads of money to invest, etc.). I have my own funds heavily concentrated on ASC but hope they will hit 1 before Xmas and enable a poistion to be built up in TEP.

Eric

Yes, I see ASC is doing very well in the past few days. Good luck.

Drifting down again. Took some profits recently and will wait to top up. Still holding some form 241. Any views on why it has gone down by so much in the last few days?

Doesn't seem to be any news. I have sold some at 277p but hold quite a few still. Moved some cash into BPRG. Hope I am right. W/S

Why the fall?
Is there some bad news in the results on 14th Dec ?
Hope not

it may be because profit margins are expected to be lower when results are published next tuesday or the fact that this always happens with TEP just before results are published.

Looking at TEP for an investment prior to the results. The price movement indicates a level of pessimism. The PE is down to 20. Last year turnover was up 41% and pbt 90%. The only indicated negative at final results was the pressure on gas prices; TEP have since put an embargo on new custormers for energy only. However, I believe the margin problem was short-term and will have gone now. I can't see turnover growth slowing down at present - partly due to the business model with an increasing number of new distributors who fund their own activity and the success of the 'Utilities warehouse' concept which means that more customers are taking multiple services. 40% pbt growth would bring prospective PE to 14; even 30% implies 16 and a PEG factor of about 0.6.

Can any of those closer to the company give further insights? Tplus Guy?

Eric

The market is clearly looking for a slow-down

EWRobson,

yes I think a "slowdown" is inevitable now that there is so much competition for telecom services.

IMHO you cannot ignore the competition, and the Carphone Warehouse has hoovered up many customers in a short space of time, and whilst the distributor method has it's merits, it also has it's limitations, ie lack of saturation coverage due to selected customer targeting.

I believe they have taken the correct action in not allowing energy only customers, as margins are wafer thin and they make the bulk of their margin on telephony.

I am a telephony customer, and about to switch my energy.

Andy

Thanks for comments. It would be good to hear from Tplus Guy or another distributor about trading conditions. Nothing was said, I gather, at Express Day in September which was shortly before end of half year. Obviously, the key to price movement from next week will be expectations for trading for balance of year. Looking back at the preliminary report published in June there were some strong indicators: "The combination of our unique multi-service utility proposition, the successful introduction of out new 'Club' concept and teh exceptional value we are providing to our customers gives us great confidence in our ability to deliver sustained growth over the coming years." Chairman-speak, yes. But this would hardly lead you to anticipate a significant slow-down in revenue and profit growth this year, yet that seems to be assumed in the price. The dividend yield is now 4.5% for heaven's sake.

I think I have talked myself into that cfd tomorrow (money is there anyway, because of teh rise of ASOS). Downside potential is very low, certainly not more than 10% or so. Upside potential must be nearer 40% to recover the stock to the level at which the directors were buying early this year. 4:1 probability. That's worth a flutter, wouldn't you say?

Eric

Nice to hear ur comments again Eric. I ended up selling I'm afraid and made some profit :)

Now back to the same price when i previously bought. My gut feeling says it may still go down a bit more before a decent rise (agree 40%). Don't know when, after the results or b4?

azhar

Results are next Tuesday. A general lack of anticipation reflected in the dwindling share price. My own feeling is that the sp is anticipating a slow down. Yet comments in June were quite bullish. We know that they being cautious about the energy side but this is not a major part of profit. Wigoder added 100,000 shares in July but no director action since. My plan, unless persuaded otherwise, is to take a position before the results because continued progress seems bound to lead to a reappraisal. For instance, the dividend is likely to be increased in line with improved profits. We would then have the virtuous position of a stock being attractive for its yield but with a super growth record which is being projected forward.

Eric

Hoy! Where are you, folk? Results tomorrow! TEP up 18.5% today! Times repeated their final results this morning to whet the appetite! My cfd at 245p is looking good but I will be up early tomorrow to chech the results! I beleive that the share has been marked down because of gas prices, but part of centrica's problem is that british gas have been losing share, including to TEP. Utilities are not a large part of business at moment and I see no reason why telecom business should not have been motoring ahead. The extra constraints on BT will have been helping.

Eric

Good thing didn't get back in now down 13%.

Telecom Plus PLC
14 December 2004


TELECOM plus PLC

14 December 2004

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2004

Telecom plus PLC, the UK's leading low-cost integrated multi-utility (gas,
electricity, telephony, internet), announces interim results for the six months
ended 30 September 2004.

Financial and business highlights:

Profit before tax up 31% to 6.4 m (2003: 4.9m)

Turnover up 15% to 42.8m (2003: 37.2m)

Interim dividend up 11% to 5p (2003: 4.5p)

New mobile and broadband services launched

Peter Nutting, Chairman, said:

'We are a highly focused business and expect to see continuing
organic growth by providing more utility services to a growing
customer base. Our unique business model gives us a strong
competitive edge over our much larger competitors, and despite the
short-term losses

decent enough results.

Gas blasts Telecom Plus
MoneyAM
Telecom Plus, a low-cost integrated multi-utility, reported a 31% increase in pretax profit in the first half but warned of substantial losses to come in the second half of the year from the group's gas business.

Pretax profit rose to 6.4m for the six months ended September 30th 2004 from 4.9m a year earlier, despite losses within the domestic gas supply business and greater competition in fixed line telephony.

Turnover for the first half was up 15% to 42.8m from 37.2m.

The board raised the interim dividend by 11% to 5p from 4.5p to reflect its confidence in the future.

Chairman Peter Nutting said the group expects to see continuing organic growth by providing more utility services to a growing customer base.

'Our unique business model gives us a strong competitive edge over our much larger competitors, and despite the short-term losses within our gas business, we face the future with great confidence,' he said.

However, he said gas continues to present the group with a margin problem in the short term. Nutting explained that rapid growth in energy turnover from a low base has presented some short-term challenges. The wholesale cost of gas has continued to rise, with particularly high volatility during a period when the group was changing shippers and thus unable to hedge forward its requirements.

In addition, as a new energy supplier growing market share during a period of rising prices, the group faces an innate disadvantage due to the lower average commodity cost being paid by competitors as a result of their historic hedging activities.

The result is an anticipated loss approaching 4m within the gas business during the second half of the current financial year, based on current market prices, in addition to losses of around 450,000 which were incurred in this area during the period under review.

Nutting said the group has now begun to hedge forward its requirements to protect against future volatility in the wholesale market and strategy will be to maintain a hedging profile broadly in line with the industry.

Nevertheless, the group sees continuing losses in the gas business in the 12 months to the end of March 2006, after which it expects to see the benefits from the substantial gas supply business it will have created.

'An examination of overhead costs within our main competitors suggests that in the medium term we could expect gross margins within our energy business of around 12% whilst retaining a competitive pricing proposition for our customers.' By contrast, benefiting from the investment in Oxford Power Holdings, Telecom Plus had hedged forward the majority of its electricity requirements in a similar rising market and the electricity business is providing an acceptable return, Nutting said.

In telephony the group has been able to increase margins despite the price reductions made for some types of calls.

Short term this doesn't look so good but this now has to be in the share price - I see more upside than down now. Looks a solid enough case for continued growth in the longer term. Just my opinion...

Does anyone here use their Broadband offering? Seems to be being slagged off on the ADVFN thread (and that's by their distributors!!!).


.

Yes, brianboro, I use the TEP broadband offering: seems OK and just 15.99 per month. Remember that TEP can move easily to use another carrier, so the announcement this morning of the "first alternative to BT's broadband network" is very significant. Easynet (clever name!) have already opened up 25% of homes and 50% of businesses, installing their equipment in BT exchanges and operating at 8 times as fast as BT. Cable & Wireless and Wanadoo are expected to offer rival services next year.

It will be easy for TEP to switch broadband suppliers but they have made a right cock-up in the gas field. This is the first really depressing announcement I have heard from them; they failed to hedge their gas contracts. Yes, they have apporpriately hedged their electricity contracts but why not gas? - I can see no valid explanation, other than the rather facile one of changing their suppliers.

I bought back into TEP last week at 245p and rose bright and early to see the results. There on the header page was the headline "gas blasts Telecom Plus". In the finals Nutting had played down the significance of gas but it seems that British Gas customers have been switching in droves. 4m loss on gas in the second half and continued losses next year before the situation is worked out. So out of TEP at 223p at a loss - could have been worse!

Where the price from here? I think the balance will be with the bears in the short-term and the price might ease further. Then the fundamentals might start to work in TEPs favour. The yield is some 5% and the interim dividend has been increased, although there may not be much room to increase, or even maintain, the final dividend. The business plan remains very good as a low cost integrated service supplier. So once the investor can see the light at the end of the gas tunnel, he/she will start looking beyond the current blip, which is what it is. The turning point may be when and if the final dividend is maintained or slightly increased. I remain a long-term fan of TEP and may put some shares away when and if I guage the fall is overdone.

You win some and lose some. The world keeps rotating and Christmas is coming! Cheers!

Eric

Thanks - maybe they gambled (and lost) on the gas hedging issue?

brianboru

Charles Wigoder doesn't strike you as a gambling man. I beleive he is basically a telecoms man and that may be part of the reason why he ahs passed the chairmanship over to Nutting. I suspect this problem blew up before they realised it was there. As I said, Nutting was stressing in the finals that gas was a small part of their business. It must be difficult when you are selling through thousands of self-employed people to stop them selling, particularly when part of their story is that they are the lowest cost provider. It seems from what you said above that some of their distributors are becoming disenchanted so that this is the time for effective management. Comments from those actively involved?

Eric

house broker KBC Peel Hunt cut its full-year to end-March pretax profit forecast to 10.2 million pounds from 14 million pounds following interim results.

That's just a little lower than last year and eps of almost 12p - IF they are correct then a share price around the 200p seems reasonable? However falling knives and all that!

All quiet! Everyone away licking their wounds! No, we didn't expect to see 2 again. A far cry from 4 in January. I'm still trying to weigh the future but would make the following points:
1. The dividend has been increased which should rule out any cut at the finals.
2. If you look at the financials the final results look a bit tight on the surface. 4m losses on gas have to be absorbed. A repeat of first half performance just about leaves enough to cover the dividend. Thus the confidence in management with the interim increase does say a lot.
3. Two negative points re the sp. (a) The closing price is down over 50p with less than 1% of shares sold, so there could well be selling volume in the wings. Why should buyers come back in at this stage? (b) Its all too common for a second lot of bad news to follow the first; TEP could be an exception, but most, including myself, will want to see evidence before climbing back in.
4. Two positive points re buying opportunity. (a) Take the financials at face value, the cap. is down to 124m; the pe is down to 16.5 (and should be maintained if dividend is to be covered); price to sales likely to be about 1.2 and peg still below 1; yield around 5%. We have a short-term problem (2 years, OK, but still short-term) against a backcloth of continued growth. (b) Given the sp continues to take a battering as those of a nervous disposition get out, together with bear selling, the price could drop further until there is a compelling case for getting back in.

My conclusion is that there is likely to be a really good buying opportunity fairly shortly, either for short-term gains or as a medium-term investment. The TEP sp over-reacted on the way up and is likely to over-react on the way down. In the end of the day, the business model is superb and this share is going places (and not just down to hades!). Other perspectives?

Eric

My sympathies are with you eric. Cheerup cos whether we like to admit or not not we have all been there. My classic example. is WLF. bought in @170+ topped up @185 and then bang they went to 99p. like u said u win some and u lose some.

On the TEP front where do you see it stopping. The main negative is that the gas issue is going to be an ongoing concern. Agree good for med/long term

Citywire Verdict:
We tipped the shares in May 2002 as a good buy at 109.5p and suggested taking a 'careful look' at whether to book some profits at 268p last November.

Todays news is clearly disappointing, although not entirely unforeseen. Operationally, everything else seems to be going to plan, and Wigoder, whose previous successes include founding The People's Phone Company, which he sold to Vodafone in 1996 for 77 million, is passionate about building a far bigger business still.

It is not surprising that investors have wanted to lock in some profit today, and that is always a wise move. However I do think this is a nasty short-term blip and one from which Telecom Plus should recover in good shape.


http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticle.aspx?VersionID=70720&MenuKey=News.Home&NewsPage=2

azhar

Thanks for the sympathetic tone: I suspect that others need it just as me - got a windfall of about the same amount from shares I hadn't even paid for! The Citywire post is good; the phrasing puts the blip into perspective. Charles Wigoder, the Honourable no less, is a winner!

Eric

The underlying tone of the Citywire Verdict is positve and I see TEP as a good long-tern investment. As a trader, rather than an investor, the key question for me is: whither the gas hedging problem. Is it reasonable to understand the situation as follows:-

TEP's problem was failure to hedge gas prices. They are now hedging prices but are left with contract(s) with which they are exposed. There is a one-time hit of 4m pounds in the second half. The problem will also affect next year but will then be worked out. My question is whether therefore that is the sum pof the bad news. Can there be further bad news which could lead to another profit warning? I suspect and hope not but would apprecaite the view of someone who uinderstand better the whole process of hedging futures gas prices.

That is the fundamentalist's issue. What does the chartist say about the graph which looks as though it may need to go further down. How far does the RSI need to recover to give a BUY signal? Could we be returning to thte 2002 trend line?

Eric

Any idea on the slump now then boys! TEP are quality and surely this is a gross misjudgement of their value??

The fly in the ointment is the possibilities of losses on gas is part of their problems because the had not "hedged their purchases" (Check tis last statement but that was my understanding of bulletins) Looking at the TA I think you may see 215 p and if it breaks that resistance 202p beforeit bounces back. I think it hit 230p to-day for a short while on relatively small volumes before rebounding slightly.

I think I would take another gamble on it if it drop to about 200p as the dividend/yield if sustained as promised is good. But watch out if interest rates go up as suspected.

Back down below 200. looking interesting again. Any ideas to the next entry point?

If you had bought at 192 earlier to-day, you would have a profit, but might drop to 185p. Wouldn't touch it as a long hold unless the down trend breaks for 2-3 days. Interesting as it has a yield of about 6%.

customer service of this co is crap sent email they replyed it will take 5 working days for response,phoned after that waiting time to speak to someone was 18 mins i hang up.

Woodie I agree,customer service is not crap it is non existent,I have my gas and electric with them,they are a bit cheaper than most but try to get an estimated reading corrected,forget it and every time I have rang I reckon I've lost any saving I might make by being on hold forever,18 minutes mate,luxury.
wouldn't touch the shares even with your money.

No satisfying some. TEP has serve me well.

T+ now 176 surely this has been overdone. Any views, next support etc.?

Agree with customer service comments, they really need to get their act together
it is very poor in my experience
In order to compete with other Companies they must reduce prices and give a good service to the customers
Reducing prices must in turn reduce the distributors commissions, who along with the customers, are the life blood of the company.
So where does that leave the business ?

Agree rampage

Also recruiting more distributers means more levels of distributers comission. It is a pyramid system. The distributers are also the life blood of the company when initially joining the company gets their relatives and friends to sign up to the services then encourage to be distributers themselves and the cycle goes on.......The first distributers recruited (stitting on the top of the pyramid or the people that started it) are getting the best comissions ie a slice of everyone below. I doubt if the distributers will want to cut their commissions as that is the 'goldern carrot" to becoming a distributer.

Something or someone have to give because the cycle cannot continue.

at last i received a reply not the 5 working days stated but 7 to answer a email customer service? make your own mind up.cheers woodie

Looks like we might not see the magic 150. Oh well! easy come easy go. Once the gas issue is resolved these will be heading back to 250-300. IMO

That's just the bottom of the latest down leg - there'll almost certainly be another to come. IMHO.

Anyone feeling more optimistic out there than brianboru about TEP?

Well there was a nice little tick up today which was a pleasant way to end the week.

Sold all now, energy prices look set to continue -- TEP has broken support down -- next stop 150 and lower!!!

dikytree.

I bailed today as well. Will monitor though and perhaps pick up again if a recovery takes hold.

10p+ drop - anyone any comment ? p/271

AGM Friday i think, see what happens. Not looking good at the moment

Telecom Plus is a multi-utility provider offering telephony, gas, electricity and internet access to consumers, who benefit from lower prices, particularly as they add more utilities from the company. The shares took a hit after the company warned first last December and again in June that it would see continuing losses in its gas business as a result of rising gas prices. As a new entrant, it said, it had not been able to fully hedge against this yet.

However, charismatic chief executive Charles Wigoder, who prior to Telecom Plus founded Peoples Phone, which he sold to Vodafone for 77 million, told Citywire that building the energy business substantially de-risks the business for the longer term. He points to the major energy companies' ability to return margins of 6-7% year after year. The company is also able to acquire new customers at a low cost using a large network of distributors who basically sign up friends and family to the services.

In June we advised investors to take a two-year view on the stock, which still applies.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticle.aspx?VersionID=76869&MenuKey=News.Home&NewsPage=4

The chart doesn't inspire!

Big fall recently due worries about gas prices. Fell as low as 120p but has been making a steady return. Barclays have increased their holding (got to be a good sign). Looks like the fall may have been overdone. dyor and be careful because you may miss the boat. 130p mid this morning.

I think a 2year period of watching TEP is sensible. Owning shares in it questionable.

Although Projected yield is juicey if they pay it.

and still going!

Fred - i bought the other day at 120 and hopefully wont be long before im selling not questionable to me.

I am a customer with telephone, gas and electricity and have been very pleased with savings over past two years. They have however, recent increased charges quite substantially. Surely this along with increasing customer base offsets increase in charges for gas etc to Utility Warehouse.

I have also been a gas/electric/mobile phone customer with them and I am leaving them for everything! The October tariff increases were absurdly high and, doing my research, I am moving to save 25% of my annual fuel charges. Fifteen months ago, when I moved to them, they were the cheapest for me.
If all their customers do their homework and can save such sums as I will be doing, their customer base will surely fade away?
I just can't understand why they have done it!

Wow schiff - 25% is some saving - may I ask where you are going. Colder winters seem on the cards as we become more involved with the North Atlantic Oscillation Cycle.

and still up, that puts me right up - unquestionable, the question is when do i sell?

Hi - I've migrated to London Energy Online who put their rates up on 31/10/2005 (so possibly less likely to raise again in the near future). With T+ my electric (on their new tariff) will be 234 pa. With LEO 183. For gas with T+ 363 pa, with LEO 301.
Actually a saving of 19% rather than 25% - sorry about that! I did the switch via energyhelpline and they pay 12.50 for transferring via them.

I have difficulty believing this and I may have to wait for the early bills to check it out but IN ADDITION (their booklet tells me) I get 50.40 pa discount for taking both fuels from them and paying by monthly direct debit. I can't believe that this is not factored into their unit prices (though these are covered in a separate leaflet) - but let's wait and see!

Also a nice young lady told me that if I send them my quarterly readings via their website I get a 3.80 discount each time I do it!

They are also tied in with the Nectar card and you can get 3200 points pa (worth 16) just for being a customer and paying by monthly DD - in addition. I am a bit worried though that registering for Nectar points blocks part of the 50.40 discount and I'm currently looking into this.

Having only gone to them because they were cheaper than T+ purely on their rates, all these other things come as nice little surprises - if they work out. At the moment it feels like a win/win/win etc situation!

I'm sorry to those of you to whom this won't sound like good news for T+.

Thanks for that schiff - I will take a close look. However, having bought more TEP at 111.75p I am currently in profit to the tune of a years fuel bills anyway - down a little this morning on very low volumns makes me think that the MMs are after some more. I too may buy again in view of Dividend in early Jan.

The Business Small-Cap Investor column rates Telecom Plus TEP a speculative buy.

looking to buy in on the next dip any new views from a month ago.