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Traders Thread - Friday 30th April (PSON)     

Crocodile - 29 Apr 2004 21:41

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Nikkei -242 Hang Seng -128  Asia News

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U.S. stocks tumbled again on worries about interest rates, the worsening Iraq situation and the morning's first-quarter GDP report which showed the economy grew at a 4.2 percent annual rate short of the 5 percent rate economists had expected.

WPP advertising said revenues for the three months to March 31 climbed over 12 percent, with North America up almost 11 percent, the UK up almost 12 percent, Continental Europe up more than seven percent, and Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East up more than 28 percent.

Pearson media said it was trading in line with its expectations and gave a bright outlook with trading prospects at their best for three years.

SIG distributor of insulation products said like-for-like sales were ahead in its three regions in 2004, and it saw some growth through acquisition during the year.

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13:30 Personal Income (0.4%), Spending (0.7%) 15:45pm Mich Sentiment-Rev. (94) 15:00 Chicago PMI (60.3)

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Pre Market Futures

FTSE -14

DAX -38

DOW -1

S&P Unch

Nasdaq -1

ajren - 30 Apr 2004 00:33 - 2 of 117

I think Pubs N Bars will be interesting.
rgds aj

ThePlayboy - 30 Apr 2004 07:07 - 3 of 117

FRI FTSE PP

R2 4565
R1 4542
PP 4518
S1 4496
S2 4472

Ftse close under its pp after loosing 6.5pts in the auction, clearly dow has fallen away tonight, just bounced off 10220, 2 day chart targeting S2 on cont weakness imho!





Updated 4/29 for Friday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 4/30
UP Above 10,400
DN Below 10,200

Continuation
Dow reverses off 10,400, trades solidly lower to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...The Daily Chart shows the Dow has pulled back into the wide, sloping trading range. Look for the index to continue trending lower toward the lower boundary of the range at around 10,200..."
The Dow traded in quite a volatile fashion today, as the index opened the session lower, but immediately reversed off the lows to rally sharply to the highs of the day. The Dow then reversed sharply off 10,400 and proceeded to push solidly lower throughout the remainder of the day. The Dow ended the day lower just 70 points, but had a daily trading range of almost 200 points, which clues us in to the volatility.

The index nearly reached the lower boundary of the wide range at 10,200 today, which is where we would expect to begin to see strength. The index did reverse sharply higher of 10,220 late in the day, which could be the beginning of a likely reaction rally off the lower boundary of the range. However, true strength will not enter the market unless 10,400 is crossed to the upside.

Otherwise, a break below 10,200 and through 10,175 will indicate another sharp decline. Be aware that we could see sideways movement at the lows above the lower trend line before another sharp move is seen. Watch for such a pattern to develop tomorrow, possibly setting the day up for quiet trading.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day just below a clear short term resistance level at 10,287, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Look for weakness below this level unless an upside break occurs.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we covered Shorts this morning at 10,347, giving us a breakeven trade. We later entered Longs at 10,400, but stopped out for a 20 point loss. We later entered Shorts at 10,320, but also stopped out. A Short re-entry at 10,296 triggered and we are still in the trade, with stops at the entry. We will remain Short below 10,200, and will hold off on Longs, unless 10,400 is crossed to the upside; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P continued sharply lower today, after selling off the morning highs. The indexes may have reached cycle lows within their respective ranges, which hints at a possible reaction rally tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow continued sharply lower today, after breaking the clear lower trend line during yesterday's market. The day's steady decline netted a loss of 70 points and could now be gearing up for a reaction rally tomorrow. Watch the lower boundary of the range at 10,200, as a break or bounce here could lead to direction.

zarif - 30 Apr 2004 07:33 - 4 of 117

morning all.

Crocodile - 30 Apr 2004 07:37 - 5 of 117

Morning from a very rainy Northern France

Druid2 - 30 Apr 2004 07:45 - 6 of 117

Morning all from an overcast North Wales.

jj50 - 30 Apr 2004 07:53 - 7 of 117

Morning from a wet Scotland>

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 08:40 - 8 of 117

Morning all

ditto

Long SBRY & STAN

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 09:17 - 9 of 117

What can I say!

graph.php?startDate=26%2F04%2F04&period=

ajren - 30 Apr 2004 09:35 - 10 of 117

You might like to know it is raining non-stop in Spain
rgds aj

Anstey - 30 Apr 2004 11:40 - 11 of 117

Buy TAD...BIG NEWS COMING...TELCO ETC.

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 11:53 - 12 of 117

LW - is that a good sign then?

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 12:08 - 13 of 117

Anstey - are you ramping TAD?

- RH - It's "I wish I'd taken out a CFD Long on GSK firt thing this morning! There are 2 bullish engulfing candles - One yesterday when it turned and a 2nd one when it took off this morning. (There was a bearing engulfing candle first thing Wednesday showing the overall down trend, until the first bullish engulfing candle hit!)

I'm not an expert at charts, so may not have the 100% terminology correct! But my understanding is, that until we see a bearish engulfing candle (which could be any moment, signifying a change in the trend) the trend is up.

Fundamentalist - 30 Apr 2004 12:16 - 14 of 117

My sentiments exactly LW. Glad I closed my short but frustrated at not turning it round into a long. Gone up 60 points since I closed!!!

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 12:22 - 15 of 117

Footsie Fooked

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 12:23 - 16 of 117

Little woman - please have the courtesy to use my full name, not my initials, when addressing me.

whats this bearing engulfing all about then?

optomistic - 30 Apr 2004 13:34 - 17 of 117

Traders Thread gone quiet
opto

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 13:41 - 18 of 117

typing quickly as I'm trying to trade, keep track of whats going on, and do some work at the same time.

I mean't bearish engulfing and bullish engulfing. It was explained on a traders day by the chartist David Jones as one of the many ways that a chart can be read, to get an indication of what may happen next or what the trend could be.

optomistic - 30 Apr 2004 13:55 - 19 of 117

LW could be usefull, I tend to use MACD as an indicator as to change of trend, not infallible and I dont always adhere by it but it is often a good guide.
opto

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 14:22 - 20 of 117

Rudolph_Hucker - are you for real?

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 14:24 - 21 of 117

optomistic, I don't actually know what MACD is, my knowlegde of charts consisted of engulfing candle & head & shoulders. :-)

optomistic - 30 Apr 2004 14:30 - 22 of 117

LW Moving average convergance divergance. Excellant coverage of subject available at www.stockcharts.com Well worth the couple of days it took me to digest it all.

Spaceman - 30 Apr 2004 14:32 - 23 of 117

Rudolph_Hucker, get real, you wont find any friends here with that sort of attitude.

ThePlayboy - 30 Apr 2004 14:38 - 24 of 117

said s:)

skinny - 30 Apr 2004 14:41 - 25 of 117

TPB - sorry ThPlayboy - are you talking to me or Spaceman? :-)

ThePlayboy - 30 Apr 2004 14:44 - 26 of 117

you missed an e spinny:)

skinny - 30 Apr 2004 14:45 - 27 of 117

Roflmao

Robb - 30 Apr 2004 14:49 - 28 of 117

Michigan no's look like a damp Rudy squid

Gausie - 30 Apr 2004 14:59 - 29 of 117

Hmmm

Popped by as u suggested LW.....

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 15:04 - 30 of 117

G - you are too kind

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:05 - 31 of 117

Optomist, Littlewoman

What's a MACD???? Where you been for the last 25 years? MACD is a tastier alternative to burger king.

As for you spaceman, with your holier than thou attitude, I'll have you know that the 'hamburger hindicators' that is setting the city alight knocks concorde into a cocked hat. I'm not looking for friends. I'm looking for trades. You want friends? tray a soddin social club.

Playboy - 'said s'??? Call that a sentence?

Robb - Up yours.

Rudy.

Robb - 30 Apr 2004 15:07 - 32 of 117

rofl

stockbunny - 30 Apr 2004 15:12 - 33 of 117

Someone put the lights on...bit dark in here....

ThePlayboy - 30 Apr 2004 15:12 - 34 of 117

nope i call it the letter "s":) but sentence does begin with an s!

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:14 - 35 of 117

You want trades? heres a trade

Short June FTSE 4508

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:14 - 36 of 117

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:14 - 37 of 117

covered 4506

Iain - 30 Apr 2004 15:14 - 38 of 117

Rudolfo.THE Man! :-))))))))))))))))
Well worth the trip over.Top stuff

Spaceman - 30 Apr 2004 15:15 - 39 of 117

Rudy old mate, how nice to have you here. Did I address you properly?

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 15:15 - 40 of 117

Rudolph_Hucker, you spelt my name wrong, but I don't care - life is too short to worry about minor things that have no meaning.

optomistic - 30 Apr 2004 15:18 - 41 of 117

Rudolph_Hucker
If you wish to be precise: optomistic and little woman please.
Although I'm quite happy with opto and I am sure little woman is equally happy with LW

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:19 - 42 of 117

opto - and what a delightfully happy couple you make

Iain - watch and learn my son.

Spaceman - no point arselickin. I'm not going on another concorde course. Not til I saved up, anyways.

Little woman - it's SPELLED not SPELT. Attention to detail - the first duty of every trader.

short FTSE again 4504

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:20 - 43 of 117

Added to FTSE short 4507

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:21 - 44 of 117

Added 4506

Iain - 30 Apr 2004 15:22 - 45 of 117

RAOFLMAO!!!!!:-)))))))))))))))))))))))))))Really.

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 15:23 - 46 of 117

Like I said - I don't care - life really is too short, and I have a life which does not include worrying about detail like how something is spelt, what I'm called, or what I call others .....(which is usually nothing at all - I'm know for not bothering to acknowledging that people are call anything)

stockbunny - 30 Apr 2004 15:23 - 47 of 117

Life is brighter with a smile....Rudy try and lighten up

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:23 - 48 of 117

Stock bunny - so start grinnin then.

covered 4504

Isaacs - 30 Apr 2004 15:26 - 49 of 117

2 points profit on the first trade. 2-3 on the second. There was me thinking this room is for investors!

stockbunny - 30 Apr 2004 15:27 - 50 of 117

I am smiling honey from ear to ear - try it for yourself....

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:28 - 51 of 117

You avin a go isaacs? Read the soddin thread title. Traders here. If you want to buy and hold go find scripololologist and the rest of them hathaway berks.

Isaacs - 30 Apr 2004 15:30 - 52 of 117

Off back to see what the traders are doing on the decent side of this web site. Bye bye Mr. Phucker. Don't spend all the profit at once.

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:31 - 53 of 117

cya.

Short FTSE 4507

MightyMicro - 30 Apr 2004 15:32 - 54 of 117

Rude $ucker: Just you watch your step, lad, or we'll set Bullie's boys on you. ;-)

Robb - 30 Apr 2004 15:33 - 55 of 117

Rudy - Are you actually a woman trying to disguise yourself? Its the language you use that gives it away I think ........

zarif - 30 Apr 2004 15:33 - 56 of 117

Lw: RH has certainly livened up the thread
Keep it coming and -DONT Forget to trade -otherwise they will banish you to GDs Cafe -On the other hand u might like it in there.

rgds
zarif

Velocity - 30 Apr 2004 15:36 - 57 of 117

lmao what's your profit target on that position RH?

Gianni - 30 Apr 2004 15:36 - 58 of 117

I was going to post something really trivial but I've decided that there is no point in posting just for the sake of it so I would just like to put my pennyworth in and think you have all been very rude to Mr. Rudolph_Hucker.

I'm really glad I got that off my chest and am looking forward to the bank holiday and hopefully it will be really nice weather too.

Is anyone going away? I'm not and thought you would all like to know that. Better stop now as while typing this I missed my entry point on that share that I was talking about last December.




Maggot - 30 Apr 2004 15:37 - 59 of 117

Rudolph_Hucker, I note that when Little Woman said you had spelt (sic) her name wrong you did not correct her for using the adjective 'wrong' instead of the adverb 'wrongly.' Your English is atroshus.

porky - 30 Apr 2004 15:37 - 60 of 117

RH.
Your definately good entertainment value,keep it up.
Cheers.

stockbunny - 30 Apr 2004 15:37 - 61 of 117

Thanks Zarif.......

Maggot - 30 Apr 2004 15:38 - 62 of 117

Zarif, me old mate. How's your new toy coming along???

Velocity - 30 Apr 2004 15:38 - 63 of 117

where u gone huckleberry? lmao

zarif - 30 Apr 2004 15:46 - 64 of 117

Maggot:
Long time no chat - I had to format my drive andhad lost all the email addresses.Please send me an internal mail or on
zarif_virmani@hotmail.com
and than we can continue.

Re: the new baby trendsignal -its the dogs bollocks -best money ever spent.Works very well on currences aswell.I think the next step is cfds aswell as s.betting which has paid me very handsomely so far.

Reckon the cable is going to make a move up and so is the euro?
any views on the dow the beast?

rgds
zarif

Jules - 30 Apr 2004 15:46 - 65 of 117

what a good laugh:-))))
Rudoph-Hucker well done on your ftse short

zarif - 30 Apr 2004 15:47 - 66 of 117

Jules -hello
What is going on today as slowly but surely the patrons from TB are on here.
keep it up.
rgds
zarif

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:48 - 67 of 117

Mighty Micro - Bring the Bullie's skinheads on....

Robb - You can get your hair cut too

Zarif - what drinks they serve? Not bleedin Tulleys I hope.

Velocity - Targets shift like the sand, my old son. Target is 5.30pm :o)

Gianni - Thanks for your support. I learned my manners at halewood charm school.

Maggot - Do you teach maths too?

Porky - I recommend ryvita and low fat spread.

Jules - just watch this FTSE. Its gonna fall faster than a lead steam pump.

Jules - 30 Apr 2004 15:49 - 68 of 117

Zarif. Hope you are well

amberjane - 30 Apr 2004 15:50 - 69 of 117

Quite funny really, was gunna say I thought the thread on Weds was more fun but changed my mind. x

ps. hope everyone's trading is better than their spellin!

Velocity - 30 Apr 2004 15:54 - 70 of 117

My spelling is impeccable. It's my trading wot needs work :-)

Maggot - 30 Apr 2004 15:55 - 71 of 117

RH. You're right. The FTSE has fallen very quickly since you posted - oh! my chart is upside down. Silly me.

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 15:57 - 72 of 117

Stopped out of FTSE

Bloody dow's got a steam pump up its arse.

Zarif - U trading ZD or YM?

Robb - 30 Apr 2004 15:58 - 73 of 117

Rudybaby - thank you, and have a pleasant long weekend yourself :-)

Iain - 30 Apr 2004 15:59 - 74 of 117

Anyone short SHEL This side?

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 16:01 - 75 of 117

Aint that typical? you stop out and the soddin index reverses.

Note to Rudy: Michael douglas never used stop losses in that wall street flick. He never got whipsawed neither.

Robb - thanks for your suggestion. Was planning on having a grotty weekend til you sparked up with your bright idea.

Jules - 30 Apr 2004 16:01 - 76 of 117

Rudolph, you've been reading Gausie's thread. hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 16:04 - 77 of 117

Jules

So have you. I read every soddin thread.

zarif - 30 Apr 2004 16:07 - 78 of 117

Rudolph _hucker:
I am trading the Ym.

Regarding the drinks at Gd cafe: You name it he has got it (if u ask nicely he will even give you a lap top dancer!!)
Mind you all the drinks taste better with Moroccan Brown and u can chase the dragon aswell.

just jesting
zarif

jj50 - 30 Apr 2004 16:09 - 79 of 117

LW I use charts a lot in research but had never heard of engulfing candles!! Perhaps I should do this course - certainly sounds impressive (and makes sense!). Off to have a look at opto's recommendation of www. stockcharts.com to see if I can learn something because certainly the last three days have shown there is room for improvement!!!!!!

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 16:15 - 80 of 117

You be careful with them engulfing patterns.

Dont forget that while this one is bullish (Bullish engulfing)

engulfing.gif

This one is bearish (3 line strike)
3_line_strike.gif

They're very easily confused. This one's the safest: (Bullish outside up)
three_outside_up.gif

Some people call the 3rd one 'bullish engulfing with confirmation'

Rudy

Jules - 30 Apr 2004 16:17 - 81 of 117

Rudolph:-))

zarif - 30 Apr 2004 16:18 - 82 of 117

JJ50
Lw is correct as in candle sticks there are Bullish and bearish engulfing patterns,harami,doji,hanging man,tombstone,hammer and spring etc.
Have at candle stick charting sites or the author 9he introduced the candle stick concept to the west from Japan -STEVE NISON) If you feeling very studious then look for ICHI MOKU charting as this is what has been left out from the canle sticks in the west and still used by the japanese with candle sticks.

rgds
zarif

Gianni - 30 Apr 2004 16:19 - 83 of 117

RH - I reckon you are just bullie winding us all up but if not then the Halewood comment was ill considered.

Spaceman - 30 Apr 2004 16:22 - 84 of 117

Iain, ;-)

Well its a lot more fun here today.

Rudibabe. Now re the Concorde Course you went on, you still havnt paid. Can you send the cheque by return? ;-) PLease ensure that you call me by my full name (The one and only Guru, Professor the Reverend Admiral Sir Gamston Spaceman) from now on.

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 16:23 - 85 of 117

Spaceman - don't I get to pay you out of my profits? By my reckoning you owe me 2,455.37.

Gianni - You're enough to turn a guy back to ciggies.

;o)

amberjane - 30 Apr 2004 16:24 - 86 of 117

LW gone into hiding - Game over?

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 16:25 - 87 of 117

No - I know who it is and so do you! I presume you knew from the beginning.

little woman - 30 Apr 2004 16:27 - 88 of 117

I mean yes - game over LOL :-)

Robb - 30 Apr 2004 16:29 - 89 of 117

lw - expose him! ..... errr ... if you see what I mean :-)

Gianni - 30 Apr 2004 16:29 - 90 of 117

RH - Well done - excellent lol - have a good w/e

stockbunny - 30 Apr 2004 16:30 - 91 of 117

Ok Like share the 'yoke' with the bunny??!!!
Who is it??

amberjane - 30 Apr 2004 16:30 - 92 of 117

Opps - dont turn on me, I know nothin!

Robb - 30 Apr 2004 16:31 - 93 of 117

I think I was right all along :-)

stockbunny - 30 Apr 2004 16:32 - 94 of 117

Great and .........?????????????????

Jules - 30 Apr 2004 16:32 - 95 of 117

Have a good weekend Rudy:-)

Iain - 30 Apr 2004 16:32 - 96 of 117

Spaceman.I bet the house on that Shel short! :-))))

Velocity - 30 Apr 2004 16:33 - 97 of 117

lol - every bb should have an RH, shake things up a bit :-) good weekend all.

V

Jules - 30 Apr 2004 16:35 - 98 of 117

LW have a great weekend. Fun way to get us stuffies from the PBB over here. LOL.

Rudolph_Hucker - 30 Apr 2004 16:36 - 99 of 117

sorry - was caught up in auctions

cu next tuesday

:o)

stockbunny - 30 Apr 2004 16:37 - 100 of 117

I'm confused...it's all too much for a simple bunny...
Now shares..that's different...I understand those....
but humans.........

Jules - 30 Apr 2004 16:40 - 101 of 117

stockbunny
Understand the humans... so I'll swap you for a lesson in that for your understanding of stocks:-) Have a good weekend

Spaceman - 30 Apr 2004 16:40 - 102 of 117

Iain, what about the car and wife?

kajman - 30 Apr 2004 16:41 - 103 of 117

Huh, I knew it was Alan Greenspan all along.

Gianni - 30 Apr 2004 16:42 - 104 of 117

I agree with Jules - will pop in next week too. BTW put CPR on your potential shorts list - looks ripe to me.

Iain - 30 Apr 2004 16:44 - 105 of 117

Sold to the Turk as we speak:-)

Maggot - 30 Apr 2004 16:50 - 106 of 117

Kajman. You're alive and lurking! Fancy Alan Greenspan taking an interest in our trades! Do you think he will tell us whether a rate rise is on the cards?

Still hold some WLB from this week's div; could still sell at an overall profit but I need to get back what I'm losing on BWY. However, the builders will come back in the next few days (!). Just got MCA from next week's divs, but will consider ABG , WMH and RTO on Monday morning. Have a good weekend.

edit. By the way it was worth going to Croc's the other week just to see him working the bots.

stockbunny - 30 Apr 2004 16:50 - 107 of 117

Jules - that's easy...Shares = small portions of something bigger,
usually found on the computer screen coloured red, green or if I'm
lucky blue and the numbers by the side of the names change constantly
during the day.....
(Do you mean to say there's more to it than that???? lol)
Like I said I am a simple bunny......
Have a great weekend and Iain if you find out who is was, do post
it to put some others of us (like me) out of our misery!!!!

Iain - 30 Apr 2004 16:58 - 108 of 117

No one will tell me:-(
Maggot been trying to get 310 on MCA.ABG on list as well


stockbunny - 30 Apr 2004 17:00 - 109 of 117

:-( have a jelly baby, it will make you feel better..

Maggot - 30 Apr 2004 17:04 - 110 of 117

Iain. I had 170 as a target for ABG, but realise that sentiment for the oil sector is high, so I might be willing to up it to 174; target was 1.86 for RTO; in RCA at 316.5. If it drops to 310 I would hope to get more (except that I fish on Tuesday so I have to trust somewhat to luck by putting in a bid).

Zarif. My e-mail to you has been returned; will try MAM internal.

zarif - 30 Apr 2004 17:07 - 111 of 117

maggot try this email.
zarif.virmani@btopenworld.com

sometimes the hotmail box gets used up very quickly.

rgds
zarif

this thread is getting nice and lively today.
rgds
zarif

zarif - 30 Apr 2004 17:13 - 112 of 117

maggot:
I did recieve your email via mam BB -but you forgot to put your email address on it.
Yes i think the cable and euro will rise a bit as they have made sort of spike lows.
have a look at the analysis ny nicole elliot on the site below.

http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/TECHNICALS/FX_-_Europe.htm

rgds
zarif

Melnibone - 01 May 2004 18:32 - 113 of 117

Hi Testex, glad to be of help with an opinion on CDN.

Ref AAL. It has dropped below the 200Day EMA.
Mining stocks and minerals are being hit by China at the moment.
China's trying to stop its growth running away into a bubble and
the consequent bubbling up of commodity prices.

Stuff needs to come back to nearer fair value again. Speculators
have chased mining stocks and commodity prices up. They're looking
for short term gain, not investments, so there's no saying how far
stuff will drop before a bounce as they take diminishing profits
pursued down by Bears and reversed positions.

Unofficialy, it's reckoned that China's growth has been really running
in excess of 12% which is not sustainable. It needs to be pegged back
or you get a situation similar to the 1999/2000 tech bubble.
Don't forget that the Yuan is still pegged to the Dollar which
gives it an edge in the markets. Japan has been spending a fortune
trying to keep the Yen lower and Europe has been gnashing its teeth
over the high Euro which has been ham-stringing exports and dollar
earners.

When the elastic band snaps back on mining stocks and commodity prices
there's no telling how far it will twang.

All in my amateur economic humble opinion.

Melnibone.

little woman - 02 May 2004 00:38 - 114 of 117

Melnibone, this may interest you.

I presume you are aware that I set my stop loss level to 1% below the S3 of a share when I purchase. If the S3 goes up so does the stop loss. If it goes down I do nothing.

Over the last 3 weeks, holding after holding has had the stop loss triggered. And nearly all of them are still trading below the price set. (With Wednesday, and Friday the largest number was triggered.) I have a few limit buys in place at really low levels but otherwise it looks like I'm going to stay in cash.

Do you think that the shares are telling me something that your charts have been hinting at?

jj50 - 02 May 2004 09:43 - 115 of 117

little woman, I am interested in your tactics. I have used your system for "blue chips" but I find if I do it with AIM shares, invariably they trigger when I don't want them to or if it is really bad news it goes straight through the stop loss and I am left holding the stock! I think the problem is with the spread. I run a parallel stock list to monitor what I have sold and how it has performed since and nine out of ten times it would have been better not to have sold, as they invariably come back up before I have had the opportunity to repurchase before the rise. I know I am holding too wide a selection of shares but felt it was a defensive tactic and financially it has worked well but I shall have to consolidate - apart from anything else, it is too time consuming!

little woman - 02 May 2004 12:52 - 116 of 117

Stop losses & limit orders trigger at the spread, which is why you can't use the system with AIM (or any SEAQ) shares, as these shares trade within a wide spread, rather than at the narrow spread which you have with SETS shares.

I'm not going to put any new money in AIM shares. And if I can I'll try and reduce my holdings in these type of shares. The problems is if the market goes into free fall, and the SEAQ shares fall with it - it will be impossible to get out of these shares. I suppose it's just a case of being cautious until things settle down. Until the US elections later in the year, plus with the problems getting worse in the middle east, it may not be until the end of the year. But you never know, things may start looking better a month or two - and we'll all breathe a sigh of relief.

Melnibone - 02 May 2004 18:49 - 117 of 117

Hi little woman,

I'm always wary on longs at the top of a range. That's why I
said I was looking to short indice pops. If you get a breakout
and the short goes against you, you usually get a retracement
as profit is taken and the old resistance is retested as a support.

Get a long go against you at the top of a range and it could take months or
years to come back to you, assuming your stop isn't triggered
in the meantime.

FTSE doesn't look that overvalued or weak to me. S@P seems to be in
a 1090/1160 range at the moment. So if Greenspan doesn't spook the
US next week, the S@P is near the bottom of its range and it may hold.
My P@F and swing charts are showing the US stuck in a range with no clear
trend signals so all we can do is trade the range until we get a breakout
and a trend in one direction or the other.

Sorry I can't be more decisive, but that's just the way I see it at the
moment.

Melnibone.
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