Opened a new position in these after finding them to be extremly cheap, and also cheap going forward. P/E now circa of 12, forward P/E to end of june 2005 is 8.7.

Broker Numis is forecasting full year pre tax profit of 8.8 million and Earnings per share of 30.3p, stunning growth

Highlight Of results Interims 31/12/2004.

Profit of 4.45 million before goodwill amortisation and tax
(2003: 3.15 million)
Earnings per share 15.1p before goodwill amortisation (2003: 14.3p)
Interim dividend increased to 7.25p per share (2003: 7.0p)
Brightview acquisition completed
Current trading encouraging

Director Speak

The Company enjoyed a good half-year to 31 December 2004. Cash generation was
strong and as before a high proportion of this cash is being returned to
shareholders as dividend.

In the six months to 31 December 2004 Invox made a profit of 4.45 million
before goodwill amortisation and tax, compared with 3.15 million for the six
months to 31 December 2003. This includes a contribution of 1.26 million from
Brightview, the Internet Service Provider acquired on 9 August 2004.

During the period the postal promotions business continued to demonstrate its
resilience with a broadly maintained operating profit of 3.19 million (2003:
3.15 million). Most of the six months under review showed year-on-year profit
improvement but December, though still profitable, was not as strong as December
2003. Once again, margin improvements arose from a deliberate and increased
focus on our own highly responsive database, and a reduction in less profitable
third party campaigns. Further new promotional and prize innovations, such as
portable CD players, have allowed us to maintain a fresh and attractive
offering. A number of test SMS-based promotions have been conducted during the
half year, but with inconclusive results. Current trading is encouraging and we
continue to seek new ways of leveraging our database.

As an independent Internet Service Provider, Brightview has a relatively large
customer database of over 300,000 users, the great majority of these accessing
the internet via dial-up rather than broadband. It appears inevitable that
dial-up business will dwindle over the years, and management is therefore making
strenuous efforts to establish Brightview as a significant presence in the
broadband marketplace. We are looking to convert a significant proportion of our
Brightview customers to broadband as soon as possible, as well as attracting new
customers. We are now able to offer a range of broadband services, making us
more competitive than before. We are therefore promoting the offering in a
number of ways. Our experience to date has been that converting existing dial-up
customers to broadband is proving much easier, and more profitable, than
recruiting new users from advertising. Brightview's broadband customer numbers
have increased from around 3,600 at the time of the acquisition to almost 10,000
now, and the rate of increase has accelerated in recent months. Shareholders
should be aware, however, that while broadband customers are potentially a very
valuable asset in the longer term, in the short term they contribute relatively
little to profit, owing to the initial costs of connecting a broadband customer
and supplying a modem.

Outlook.

Further progress is now likely with its database of over 400,000 mobile phone users, and Brightview will be a challenge converting customers from dial up to Broadband. The core mailed promotion business which is highly cash generative should see the company realise Broker forecasts.

Highly Speculative but derd cheap. As a high beta and hopefully we should see a re - rating .

DYOR

cheers GF.

The chart doesnt look a pretty sight at the moment but there are signs of volume picking up.



cheers GF.

Tipped by Bill Johnston of whatshot.com and also by ukanalyst in the last few days. Here is what Bill had to say:-

(In the public domain for free so no probs in pasting)

"Buy Invox at 267.5p
Argues Bill Johnston of WatsHot.com

A few weeks ago I wrote about the sub-sector which helps fill the air at premium telephone rates for fun (yours) and profit (theirs). It had not been long since one of the newest and classiest participants, MonsterMob (MOB) had issued a profit warning and announced cost-cutting measures, a bit of a turn-off I felt in what was supposed to be such a fast-expanding activity - all the more so since the share price had been on a fat multiple of the company's 2003 earnings. But assisted by an investment from the Barclay brothers and hoarse cries about stupendous current profitability the MonsterMob share price shot back up again. So what of Invox (INX), a not dissimilar business, which has never delivered to its shareholders anything other than steady growth - generating cash and distributing it too?

Invox really burst into life when TPC Telecoms, a company which had made 2 million pounds before tax to April 2001, and which held more than that in the bank, was acquired for 12.6 million pounds, net of its cash. TPC, then just over a year (about the same age as MonsterMob then) had made its money from card-based competitions, cards with high graphics content mainly distributed by means of newspapers and magazines; prize winners - and there are plenty - have to claim their prizes by calling premium-rate lines. Additional sources of premium-rate business were both being pursued, and were in contemplation, in-house and through prospective acquisition.

After a 1-for-100 share consolidation the company announced that profits to June last year would exceed expectations. Even so the shares still leapt in excitement as the adjusted net profit figure cruised up to 5 million pounds pre amortisation and pre tax, against the 2.6 million pounds for the previous year - even if the increased number of shares meant that the increase from 22p to 27p was less pronounced. But a jump in the dividend from 7p to 20p was one way of pinning the shares at their attained altitude. Another might have been the fact that the cash-generating company (7.6 million pounds from sales of 18 million pounds) had so far failed to brand its competitions - but intended to do so in future. Not only that but the increasing tendency of its customers to use SMS messaging was seen as helping to create another invaluable asset.

The year to June, which had also seen the postal disputes help flatten out the growth curve - recorded earnings per share were 30p per share against just 27p. But this was accomplished as sales receded from 18 million pounds to under 15 million pounds, reflecting a rise of over 10 points in the gross margin as the competitions were concentrated on targeted databases - mainly the company's own, culled from a customer base of 3.5 million, including 400,000 mobile phone users. But if Invox was that concentrating on the more intensive cultivation of its own soil (which I for one welcomed) the broadening and extending of the business had not been ignored either, as in July the company raised 15 million pounds at 300p to acquire Internet Service Provider Brightview Group. Brightview, whose 300,000 active customers had enabled it to table a pre goodwill- amortisation operating profit of 4 million pounds in the 54 weeks to April 2004.

Cross-selling and telecommunication purchasing power are expected to give new opportunities to what are two already successful businesses, as the drive for broadband and the prospects of Christmas trading keeps the enlarged group on its toes.

The shares now stand at 267.5p, and the yield, given the 21p dividend total, is a mouth-watering 7.5%. The earnings forecast for June 2005 is 34p per share - a prospective multiple of 8. I say buy.

Share price: 267.5p
Market: AIM

cheers GF.

gf

The volume increase has definitely caught my eye, but you are right about the chart - not pretty! Watching.

Al

Best time to get them just off the bottom , Big Al.

cheers GF.

Not a good chart GF. Will need to see something more positive, but will put on my watch list.

MS

Hi GF, Mickey
Given the contra relationship between share price and dividend I have long supported the view that the best time to buy the stock is when the dividend is high and of course vice-versa this one should be no exception, and given their market situation promises to be interesting

Its derd cheap aswell on that forward P/E.

cheers GF.

I know, but that chart. Last year was not good. I need to feel more confident. Yes it could be good but!!

MS

Quite day today Mickey. Always the same when the yanks are on holiday.

cheers GF.

Yes, Your right. Back to normal tomorrow. Is it snowing where you are. All clear here at the moment.

MS

Vastly undervalued and overlooked. My share for March 2005.

cheers GF.

I agree--but no spare cash!!

Very interesting - however looking at the charts I do not see that the bottom is close as yet, I maybe wrong, but I shall wait a little longer and see where the charts go. As and when she bottoms and levels, I shall be in for some for sure.

Recent RNS also concerns :

Invox PLC
News Story


Invox PLC - Holding(s) in Company
RNS Number:7292I
Invox PLC
17 February 2005

Invox plc (the 'Company')

The Company was informed on 16 February 2005 that, following the disposal of
211,292 ordinary shares in the Company, the AEGON UK plc Group of Companies no
longer has a notifiable interest in the ordinary share capital of the Company

For the purposes of this announcement the AEGON UK plc Group of Companies means
Scottish Equitable plc, Scottish Equitable (Managed Funds) Limited, AEGON Fund
Management UK Ltd, AEGON Investment Management UK Ltd, AEGON Asset Management UK
plc, Scottish Equitable Trustees Limited, Guardian Assurance plc, Guardian
Linked Life Assurance Limited, Guardian Pensions Management Limited and Guardian
Unit Managers Limited.

Enquiries:

Jerry Reidy, Finance Director, Invox Plc 0121 214 9900


Invox PLC - Holding(s) in Company
RNS Number:7891I
Invox PLC
18 February 2005


Invox plc (the 'Company')

The Company was notified on 17 February 2005 that Carl Tatton ESQ disposed of
100,000 ordinary shares in the Company on 9 February and 100,000 ordinary shares
in the Company on 15 February and as a result currently holds 1,650,828 ordinary
shares of 50p each in the Company. This holding represents 7.6% of the ordinary
share capital of the Company

Enquiries:
Chris Bucknall, Numis Securities Ltd 020 7776 1500



Will keep them in my watchlist though.

Wonder who snapped the sells up then?.

cheers GF.

PapalPower

As good as they are is there any chance of reducing the size of the graphs. I can't grasp the whole picture in one glance. Many thanks.

MS

Going even cheaper now.

cheers GF.

The year to June, which had also seen the postal disputes help flatten out the growth curve - recorded earnings per share were 30p per share against just 27p. But this was accomplished as sales receded from 18 million pounds to under 15 million pounds, reflecting a rise of over 10 points in the gross margin as the competitions were concentrated on targeted databases - mainly the company's own, culled from a customer base of 3.5 million, including 400,000 mobile phone users. But if Invox was that concentrating on the more intensive cultivation of its own soil (which I for one welcomed) the broadening and extending of the business had not been ignored either, as in July the company raised 15 million pounds at 300p to acquire Internet Service Provider Brightview Group. Brightview, whose 300,000 active customers had enabled it to table a pre goodwill- amortisation operating profit of 4 million pounds in the 54 weeks to April 2004.

Cross-selling and telecommunication purchasing power are expected to give new opportunities to what are two already successful businesses, as the drive for broadband.

cheers GF.

Dont sell off, the markets getting a shock taste of reality. There will be a bounce in the US.

cheers GF.

Shrewd Snapshot: Barnard buys more Invox
Published: 07:33 Tuesday 01 March 2005 TOTAL PAGES: 1
By: Algernon Craig Hall, Secret Buying Correspondent Back To Latest News Printable Version









Citywire AA-rated fund manager Michael Barnard has increased his holding in postal promotions company Invox.

Shrewd Barnard bought 1.2 million shares to take his funds' combined holding to 2.4 million or 11.3% of the 55.4 million company.

Last month the company (INX) reported strong interim numbers but its house broker Numis commented that attempts to juice the group's database had not been as successful as previously hoped.

The company has attracted a number of shrewd investors thanks to the combined attractions of growth and a hefty dividend.

The shares closed down 1p yesterday at 206.5p.

cheers GF.

Price: Does anyone understand why the price of Invox continues its downwards path?
The outlook appeared excellent when I bought in earlier this year, has something changed or does the company have a hidden problem or what?

Not sure dave, i'm with you on that one. The sp has got to start turning the corner soon, and when it does i think i'll get some more. Do you know when results are out?

Snaylor,
Interim results came out early February (summary posted earlier by goldfinger). Just had another look at them, and the P/E ratio is ~ 15.3 using the earnings before amoritisation of goodwill, but rises to ~ 25.4 when the goodwill is taken into account. Maybe the P/E including the goodwill effect is the one to use, and looks too high. Any thoughts?

Results were ok-dividend high. what is the matter here?? Since I bought in the sp has fallen off a cliff! anyone have any ideas?

Perplexed myself MP. It like hamworthy yesterday fantastic contract news and it moves up about 5p. Seems to me we are all better off being in cash until the winter comes and then we MAY be able to get a decent market in stocks.

cheers GF.

Cheers GF I agree.

Any chance for recovery?

I hear Winnies tipped it over on tips.com so there might be a lot of new buyers moving in.

cheers GF.

I hear Winnies tipped it over on tips.com so there might be a lot of new buyers moving in.

cheers GF.

Could be worth a punt if it breaks 120p and holds. As for Winnie tipping it ... not exactly bril is he !

Hes been doing rather well Dil Im told over the last 2 year. Must admit his style a few years back was rather bland to say the least, but Im told hes now using buy up to targets and then placing holds on.

He tipped Northern Pet at 2.4p now its around 14p so cant be that bad.

cheers GF.

Yeah and he tipped MMD at 180p , etc , etc.

Got a bit more respect for him lateley though , as a person not as tipster , for taking the time to reply to a couple of emails I sent him.

This share needs to show some relative strength before I would be tempted but good luck gf.

Cheers Dil.

Trading statement released today and figures don`t look as bad as an earlier warning suggested.A nice move up today and i`m sure given the market capital and historical dividend of this share that it has been oversold.
DB66

I would agree DB. Still holding myself.

cheers GF. Patience just patience.

cheap at this level werent they tipped by tom Winifrith/T1ps last week ?
plenty of exposure will come from it forward p/e of 4 so long way to go IMHO
cannot see 300p again but could test 150-180p in short term even before results

any guesses on the divi payment if one at all ???
IMHO between trading stmtns may-july debt reduced by 1m+ and profit assumptions increased too so cannot see them not paying something but expect it to be below last year

Comments from T1ps

Invox (INX) today released a year end trading statement which was really not as bad as one might have feared. The shares soared by 21% to 110.5p on the news. The company says that on the basis of unaudited management accounts its pre-tax profits will be at least 7.4 million for the year to June 30th (up from 6.8 million) while earnings will be at least 25p, down from 30.1p.That may look okay but you may remember that the first half pre-tax profit was 4.45 million and earnings were 14.3p so clearly the second half was not that great.

These numbers are stated pre-any writedowns and my guess is that the value of Brightview will be written down. Moreover the final (14p ) dividend still looks less than secure - based on second half trading. This will be reviewed based upon current trading when finals are published in September. Net debt is down to 3.5 million which is encouraging and Invox says that trading on both divisions is "satisfactory." Invox says that the strategic review has "thrown up a number of interesting possibilities." Again, my guess is that the Internet arm will be sold so clearing debt and leaving a company perfectly capable of paying a dividend of 10p per share or more. That is why I still rate the stock as a "speculative buy" at up to 130p.

3:1 buyers to sellers so why is the price down ?????

Hi GF.
Been watching this for a while,
standing at 116p must say now looks very oversold.
Down 70% in last year, Ouch, when it should have
been a growth stock.
Interesting to see the board quoted on 26 july ptp
will not be less than 7.4m which counters the quote
on 20 may saying it will not meet expectations.
Even if eps growth will still be down.
Aim stock paying dividend in double figures (will reduce no doubt )
eps also double figures
and forward p/e under 4
the market is mad sometimes, unless the board
are lying through thier teeth.
Which in this case i doubt.
1 month relative strength over 20
seems this is now a massive buying opportunuity.
I dont follow recovery stocks as a rule but i believe
this is in fact not a recovery stock, but somthing
the market has misread by a long way, unless there is
somthing sinister i have missed.
Dropped 4% Friday but i will be be onboard very soon.
All the best
HUSTLER

A 50000 buy just before 4 o'clock took the buy/sell ratio firmly to the buy side, but still 1p down on the day ... maybe we will see a higher opening price tomorrow.

I don`t understand why this hasn`t taken off, i might still be a novice at this game but i know this is a bargain even if the dividend is cut down!
DB66

A 6% rise so far today ,i think people are missing a trick here .
Profit of not less than 7.4 million and market capital of 19.43 million,the dividend although its going to be cut could still scrape into double figures.
Can anyone tell me whats the catch because i can`t see one.
DB66

moved a little today 8:1 in favour of buys maybee same again tommorrow massively undervalued IMHO hoping from more exposure via T1ps.com

nice move again should get past 130p soon with 150p results due in september
and still expect nice fat divi

another small rise today am I talking to myself ? anyone a firm idea of the results date and a view of the potential final divi ?

Gordon,
Don't worry - you are not alone !!
The results are due in the third week of September I believe
The final dividend will be decided upon the state of the business at the time - it will be cut for sure but to what extent is still to be decided.
This is the last trading statement:

Invox PLC
26 July 2005




Trading update



On the basis of unaudited management accounts, in the year ended 30 June 2005
the Company made a profit of not less than 7.4 million (2004: 6.8 million)
before tax and amortisation of goodwill, giving earnings per share of 25.0p
(2004: 30.1p) after tax but before amortisation of goodwill, on the weighted
average number of shares in issue. These figures take no account of any
provision which may be made for impairment in the value of the Company's
investments in its subsidiaries.



As previously announced, the level of any final dividend to be recommended by
the Board will be set when the preliminary results are announced in September,
and will take into account trading and prospects at the time. The Board will
also provide shareholders with an update on the outlook for the current year at
that time. Group net debt as of 30 June 2005 was approximately 3.5 million.



Current trading is satisfactory in both Home Gaming and Internet Service
Provision. The strategic review announced in May 2005 has thrown up a number of
interesting possibilities and shareholders will be kept informed of any
significant developments.


As has been suggested on this board the shares are fundamentally very good value IMO.

K******

I've just jumped in with both feet as I also believe that the shares are currently good value.

Hi all

I'm now in for the run up to results (and hopefully beyond!)

have been on the advfn site a each of the last few days a big buy goes thru for 50k which gets delayed and looks to use like a sale but is actually a buy any views

IMHO could get back to 200p after results and 150p before them

Yeah - it certainly looks like there is a lot of interest building, but the MM are trying to hold it back.

Definitely oversold imo and will go higher - all will be clearer in september.

also found out nigel wray got nig shareholding anyone know how much ?

any views on results date last year was 21/9 also divi paid 7p at interim
expect the same this time ??? well hoping anyway

T1ps have target of 175p and expect they will review the tip between now and the results

A good rise so far today and not before time, i`m a bit surprised a the lack of movement in SP lately given results are due any time.
DB66

Results due by end of September.
At least 7.4 million profit!
I might be a novice but i`m sure given todays rise there is a bit more to come out of Invox to get to its real value.
Anybody else agree?
DB66

DB66

Totally agree. INX is seriously unervalued at the moment. I think a lot of people were spooked by the earlier profit warning but that is behind them now.

I expect more rises as we get towards the results and then hopefully we will get a clearer view of where INX is going!

I phoned the company today - results definitely out on Friday!


http://www.smallcaptrader.org/mydiary.html#12

What's your feeling on their positive (or otherwise) nature someuwin? They could do with some good news as the sp took another hammering today.

Yeah they took a bit of a hit today - but I remain quietly confident.

There are some unknowns here (i.e Brightview) but I am convinced the positives far outway the negatives.

We'll see what happens Tomorrow, but the real action will be on Friday!

nasty old day today can see this coming good in medium term shame about the dividend but they are comitted to it going forward think there is support around 90p

Bad, bad day but, perhaps mistakenly, I am keeping faith as I have a feeling in my bones about it.....

i have spoke to Tom Winifrith and hes just put out an update on whatshot.com
they think it will be above 100p again shortly and can see eps of 20p and dici of 10p next year so will watch and poss buy some more on weakness lets hope some directors come out and buy some more perhaps mr wray might just do that ?

UK smallcap opening - Invox up on talk of bid approach
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Home gaming and internet service provider Invox made early progress, climbing 9 pence to 101-1/2 amid talk that a quoted company headed by entrepreneur John Gunn has made a tentative bid approach at a price of 125 pence a share.

fjb/ak

What's going on today??

bid 19p