Company has three business divisions: Mining, Transport and Water, being the first of them the most important. Antofagasta plc is one of the largest international copper producing companies in the industry. Its activities are mainly concentrated in Chile where it owns and operates three copper mines, Los Pelambres, El Tesoro and Michilla, with a total production of 498 thousand tonnes in 2004, at an average cash cost of 24.4 c/lb. The Groups mining division, Antofagasta Minerals, is also actively involved in exploration particularly in Chile and Peru. The transport division operates an extensive rail network servicing the important mining region of northern Chile, which is centred on the port of Antofagasta. The water division operates a concession for the distribution of water in this region.

SALES PER ACTIVITY (Data as of 31/12/2005)

Copper mining: 94%
Rail transport:   4%
Water:             2%

SHANGHAI: Although most commodity traders thought the recent slump in copper prices was only short-term, they were still surprised at a sudden and fierce rebound this week.

On Tuesday, copper futures prices in London shot up 11 per cent to US$8,460 per ton as international traders and speculators rushed to cover their short positions. It is thought the surge was the reason why the Shanghai copper futures market was virtually paralyzed.

When the city's futures exchange began trading yesterday, the opening price for copper futures contracts hit the price rise ceiling of 4 per cent allowed under the exchange's rules and stayed there throughout the entire session.

Copper for delivery in August opened at 73,850 yuan (US$9,230) a ton yesterday, up 3,200 yuan (US$400) from Tuesday's close.

As a result, trading almost stopped. Only 190 tons of the metal were contracted for delivery in three months compared to an average turnover in excess of 265,000 tons in recent months.

Traders on the Shanghai exchange, which has become the second largest market in the world for copper futures, said they expected prices to hit the ceiling again at opening today.

The rebound ended a short-term slump that had taken place in global markets over recent weeks.

Commodity traders attributed the surge of copper future prices to the price rebound of the metal at the London Metal Exchange.

"The rebound in China is basically caused by the change on the London market, which we are closely linked to," Wu Bowen, an analyst with Shanghai-based Jin Peng Futures, said.

"But the burgeoning Chinese economy has driven a roaring foreign commodities market, which in turn drags up commodity prices in our country too," he added.

Other reasons include rising fuel prices in China and an excessive correction of commodities after their prices soared to record highs earlier this month.

China increased the prices of petroleum, diesel and aviation fuel by about 10 per cent, the largest increases since 2003.

An official with the State Development and Reform Commission said on Tuesday night it had increased fuel prices because China's current prices are far below those in the international arena. This, the official said, has reduced the profits of Chinese oil refineries.

Analysts warned the fall in copper prices was just short-term and wouldn't alter the rising price trend, caused, they said, by surging demand from China's commercial sector and buying by speculators.

Yang Fan, a trader at the Shanghai-headquartered Dalu Futures, forecast that futures would continue to open at higher rates today.

The surge also set price trends for other commodities such as rubber and aluminium; their price increases reached ceilings set by the exchange as well.

Source: China Daily

AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Chilean copper miner Antofagasta PLC reported a 35 pct rise in first quarter earnings, reflecting strong copper prices which offset the decline in production and molybdenum prices.

Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation in the three months to March rose to 523 mln usd from 386 mln last time.

Turnover grew 40 pct to 748.6 mln usd as average copper prices increased to 224.3 cents per pound from 148.3 cents last time.

Average prices for molybdenum prices, a by-product of copper mining used as a hardening agent for steel and cast iron, however, fell to 23 usd per pound from 31.5 usd.

Copper sales during the quarter fell to 108,100 tonnes from 111,600 tonnes, owing to lower output at Los Pelambres and ore grades and recoveries at El Tesoro mines.

Molybdenum sales also declined to 2,000 tonnes from 2,100 tonnes.

Total charges for the group's commodity hedging programme totaled 37.8 mln usd in the three-month period.

Elsewhere, Antofagasta said its transport and water divisions 'continued to perform strongly', with turnover above the quarterly average for 2005.



monicca.egoy@afxnews.com

Thursday June 8, 04:15 PM
Broker tips

LONDON (ShareCast) - Chilean copper miner Antofagasta (LSE: ANTO.L - news) has been upped to "buy" from "neutral" at UBS as part of a wider note on the mining sector.

The Swiss broker noted that the miner has fallen some 23% in the last three weeks, as it raised commodity price forecasts and EPS estimates. UBS added that the likelihood of further M&A action has increased.

so are you brave enough to dive in this morning given that most prices will have ben marked up quite a bit even before the market opens?

Daily Telegraph. By Malcolm Moore in Rome (Filed: 17/06/2006)


Record copper prices power China's blackmarket demand for hot metal


The recent record price of copper has led to a spate of robberies in Italy and Western Europe, as gangs of thieves seek to sell the metal to China on the black market.

In the past six months at least 10 major copper robberies have been foiled by Italian investigators. The latest was on Tuesday, when Naples police uncovered a criminal ring that had stolen 175 tonnes of copper wiring, worth as much as 1m (682,000), and were about to ship it to China.

Five men were arrested, and a further 17 are under investigation. Police added that the network of copper smugglers included companies at the port in Salerno, as well as shipping and container businesses.

Although the price of copper has fallen in the past few weeks, the commodity has spiked over the past two-and-a-half years thanks to an incessant thirst for copper wiring from Chinese manufacturers.

The global stockpile of copper has been depleted to only three days of current production, and since January 2004 the price of the metal has risen from just over $2,000 (1,080) a tonne to a recent peak of almost $9,000. On the black market, a tonne of copper now sells for as much as $5,000.

Police in Naples found thieves were stealing copper wiring from the construction site of a high-speed rail link between Rome and Naples. Since much of Italy's rail network is electrified, thieves have persistently targeted railway stations.

Two men were recently arrested in the southern city of Catanzaro for stripping wire from a railway station. In the Piedmont and the Aosta Valley, police have arrested 11 people in the past month. The value of the copper they had stolen was about 3m. In March, police in Brescia recovered a similar amount of copper in nine anti-fraud operations.

"The phenomenon was restricted to a few places, but with the rise in price, it is much more widespread," said Claudio Di Cani, head of the Italian Association of Non-Ferrous Metal Producers and Smelters.

Copper gangs are also at work in Germany, France, Sweden and Ireland. In France, repair work on the TGV rail lines is now under police guard. In Scotland last week, 40,000 of copper was stolen from a building site at Edinburgh University.

Church roofs have been targeted, and in Kansas, the Apostolic Church of Jesus had the copper stolen from its air-conditioning system.

Copper Rises for 3rd Day on Speculation Metal Demand Won't Slow

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose for the third straight day on speculation that a decline in prices this month, the biggest since May 1999, was exaggerated because economic growth may sustain metals demand.

Copper in New York has plunged more than 12 percent this month, leading a drop in industrial metals as central banks raised interest rates to rein in inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who on June 5 pledged to fight U.S. inflation, said yesterday that the world's biggest economy can withstand rising energy costs.

``What Bernanke said helped the mood'' of copper traders by signaling the Fed's inflation fighting won't kill economic growth, said Edward Meir, a commodity analyst at Man Financial Ltd. in Darien, Connecticut. ``His whole tone was a little bit more muted.''

Copper for September delivery rose 5.35 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $3.185 a pound at 12:36 p.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A close at that price would leave copper down 2.5 percent for the week. The metal reached a record $4.04 on May 11. A futures contract is an obligation to sell or to buy a commodity at a fixed price for a specific delivery date.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months rose $25, or 0.4 percent, to $7,020 a metric ton, after rising as much as 1.9 percent. Prices have more than doubled in the past year.

Reduced Inventories

Inventory in Comex-monitored warehouses fell 8.3 percent to 7,929 short tons yesterday, the biggest decline since April 3. The New York Mercantile Exchange said yesterday it will reduce the limit of outstanding copper contracts traders can hold in the spot month by 30 percent to 175 contracts as warehouse inventory fell to almost a five-month low.

The change, beginning with the June 2006 contract, will be effective at the close of business today. Stockpiles in LME warehouses have fallen 85 percent in the past three years.

``The fundamentals remain very, very strong,'' said James Koppel, managing director at SG Commodities Group, a New York- based trading unit of France's Societe Generale SA. ``You take a look at the LME stock and they are still very, very low.''

Consumer confidence in the U.S., the world's second-largest copper user after China, unexpectedly rose for the first time in three months in June. The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 82.4 this month from the final May reading of 79.1.

The measure has averaged 88.1 since monthly data were first compiled in 1978. Economists expected the Michigan gauge to fall to 79, based on the median of 60 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.

I am fully expecting a rise in share price of ANTO as it is very cheap and has dropped too far.

Fez copied a post from some strange source who stated there were only 3 days of copper stockpiled throughout the world ..... and CHP will 100p tomorrow too! ...... For sure miners have taken an absolute hammering over the last month, and now may be good buying opportunity ...... However, just because sp is much cheaper than it was doe not, per se, make the stock cheap ...... For myself, I am far from convinced that the indices are back on a sustainable upward track, so be careful and nimble.

good point cynic. lots of differering pinions at the moment with up and down market. everyone seems to have a different view but to me ANTO is cheap because it has dropped more than other miners recently whilst fundamentals remain rock solid.

cynic: have put in source of my earlier article (see post 6) - it was the Daily Telegraph.

sorry; so you did ..... but still reckon it's codswallop ..... but as i said befoe, that does not mean FAGS are not now good value, or similarly KAZ and the like .... just tread very carefully

Antofagasta PLC
19 June 2006

Antofagasta plc

4 for 1 Bonus Issue of Ordinary Shares

London, 19 June 2006

Following shareholder approval at the Annual General Meeting and Class Meetings
on 14 June 2006, Antofagasta plc (the 'Company') confirms that it has issued, by
way of a bonus issue, four new ordinary shares of 5p each for every one ordinary
share held by shareholders of the Company at the close of business on Friday 16
June 2006. Each new ordinary share will carry the same rights as an existing
ordinary share. Following this issue, the Company has 985,856,695 ordinary
shares in issue.

As no similar bonus issue has taken place in respect of the 5% cumulative
preference shares in the capital of the Company, the rights of each preference
share have been amended so that each preference share now carries 100 votes on a
poll at any general meeting of the Company. This amendment maintains the voting
rights of each preference share as a proportion of the total votes entitled to
be exercised at a general meeting.

After the bonus issue ANTO is now comparatively nearly 4% higher than when it closed Friday night.

Thanks Fez ..... couldn't work out the maths! ..... nevertheless, "tread carefully" stiull applies not withstanding that FTSE has opened firmly and Dow is also looking good - so far

Harry .... please read dai's up-dated and comprehensive review of of copper and other metal prices

remember the old saying "PRICE HAS MEMORY"

never heard that one!

Cheers cynic. Talk about volatility!! "up and down like a yo-yo" doesn't even begin to tell the tale!!! Need to tread very carefully until things settle down.

so a couple of weeks has now passed and normality has returned to the markets, at least for the time being ..... with commodities now back on upward track, I contemplated which mining stock to lose money on and, with some reluctance, rejected POG (Hambro) as a really good gold play and have plumped for ANTO in preference to KAZ

Posted chart post share consolidation.Trading bottom of range.Buy recommendations today with target price 470p.Strong demand for copper isn't going away.Growth India and China.Every new home needs copper.

Watch for breakout when it comes above 400p.Several attempt today.

Mining sector up in early morning trade.ANTO
threatening breakout above 400p.

You may be looking at graph in opening post with horror.Don't big drop all down to share consolidation! Reason one month graph posted at 21.

No better time to get in than the present,all the better at 400p or less.Breakout is imminent and currently trading 400p-402p.

Demand for copper worldwide is not going away making anto good growth share and pays a dividend.

Miners back in vogue.Timely post and chart at 21.Breakout above 400p happened today! Roll on 420p-430p.......................broker target price 470p.

The Questor column - Edited by Dominic White - (Filed: 30/08/2006)

Chilean miner shows sparkling results as it basks in reflected glory of copper price


At first glance, the investment case for Chilean copper miner Antofagasta makes for compelling reading.

The single biggest catalyst for the company's soaraway share price is the red-hot global market for copper.

Citigroup calculates that 80pc of sales made by 'Fags' are directly linked to the price of copper, which has risen exponentially on the back of insatiable Chinese demand and supply constraints.

Copper prices have remained strong throughout 2006, starting at around $2 per pound in January and peaking at just under $4 in mid-May.

Fags is confident that the price of copper is well supported. It points to increased demand for commodities as an investment alternative by institutional investors. It also notes that inventories of the metal represent less than two weeks' worth of world consumption.

Meanwhile, industrial disruption at Chile's largest copper mine, the Escondida facility run by BHP Billiton, has added further weight to the investment case.

High copper prices translate into bumper free cash-flows, which in turn lead to higher dividends. The surprise interim special payout could herald more to come if the price of the metal remains where it is. Merrill Lynch expects another special divi to follow at the end of the year.

However, Fags' sparkling interim results only beat analysts' expectations because the number-crunchers underestimated the benefits of its policy of "provisional pricing" - whereby sales from a certain metal can be inflated during periods of rising spot prices.

When the price of copper levels off, the benefit Antofagasta enjoys from selling on the futures market will cease; should the copper price start falling, the effect will turn negative.

While fundamentally well supported, there is always the potential for a drop in the copper price, which has already come off 15pc since its May high. Similarly, the Escondida strike will not last for ever.

However, with the chance of more special payouts, the shares are worth holding on to.

despite Citicorp now switching its focus to KAZ, it maintains its price target of 600 for ANTO, which i happen to hold already ...... ANTO is undeniably a quality company with consistent strong performance.

Chart show steadil;y rising 50 and 200 dma and an undemanding rsi

decided to bank my fairly modest profit this afternoon on the basis that i see no harm in taking some money off the table and there was a also a downgrade the other day ...... i still think this is a really good company with much going for it, so will keep on my watch list with a view to buying if/when sp falls tp rising 25 dma

ANTO is still a sell at 495p despite at its current bottom 'cos it is going down even further.

Like the logic lol.

SELL ANTO at 368p.

Gone short myself hlyeo after reading this report...

Copper Falls for Second Day on Concern About U.S. Recession
Email | Print | A A A

By Claudia Carpenter

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and nickel slid for a second day in London as reports showed the U.S. recession may be deepening, curbing demand for industrial metals further.

Copper has dropped more than 60 percent since the beginning of July as a worsening housing market in the U.S. crimped demand for the metal used in pipes and wiring. U.S. crude oil inventories jumped more than expected to the highest since May, and companies pared 693,000 jobs in December, also exceeding economists forecasts, reports showed yesterday.

Fairly poor data for U.S. employment and the latest U.S. inventory data reaffirm weakness in the economy, said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London.

Copper for delivery in three months fell $90, or 2.7 percent, to $3,250 a metric ton as of 1:54 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. It declined 1.5 percent yesterday and was a record $8,940 on July 2. The Comex March-delivery copper contract fell 2.1 percent to $1.4795 a pound.

LS-Nikko Copper Inc., operator of the worlds third-largest copper refiner and smelter, plans to cut this years output by 10 percent on falling demand.

Nickel, which is used in stainless steel, declined $650, or 5.3 percent, to $11,650 a ton. Nippon Yakin Kogyo Co., a Japanese stainless steel producer, said it will suspend production at its plant in Kawasaki, near Tokyo, for three days a month as it cuts output by 60 percent from first-half levels.

Nickel jumped as much as 13 percent this year and copper climbed to a one-month high on speculation government spending programs will revive economies, spurring consumption of homes, cars and other items that contain industrial metals.

Opportunity to Sell

Buying by index funds that helped support nickel prices as they rebalance their holdings provided an opportunity for other investors to sell inventory, Smith said. Nickel may drop to less than $10,000 a ton in the next few weeks, he said.

The UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index of 26 commodities dropped 4.2 percent yesterday, the first drop this year. It was down another 1.1 percent today.

Improvement in sentiment disappeared fairly quickly, Smith said.

The number of Americans getting unemployment benefit rose to 4.6 million last week, the most since 1982, the Labor Department said in Washington today. First-time filers fell by 24,000 to 467,000. Jobless claims were projected to rise to 545,000, economists said in a Bloomberg News survey.

Tin fell $250 to $11,350 a ton, zinc dropped $27 to $1,263 a ton and aluminum declined $39 to $1,555 a ton. Lead increased $11 to $1,151 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net or ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

Looks a little concerning with world demand falling away.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=a0icitJ82Ri4&refer=commodities

Two broker reports out yesterday with sell ratings...

Antofagasta PLC

FORECASTS

2008 2009
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

SG Securities
07-01-09 SELL 65.50 34.51 35.90 19.91

Exane BNP Paribas
07-01-09 SELL 1,363.72 63.35 22.86 370.98 19.59 8.49

Societe Generale downgrades the
stock to "sell" from "hold" on worries that hopes for a recovery in the copper
market may be overplayed.
The company has seen substantial cost hikes while the price of copper has
dropped 66 percent this year, leading to a "significant deterioration" in profit
margins, SocGen says in a research note.
The broker now expects EBITDA to fall to $229 million in the fourth quarter
from $492 million in the third, and revises its 12-month price target for
Antofagasta to 350 pence from 420 pence.
Reuters Messaging rm://john.coppock.reuters.com@reuters.net

Ex-divi date 16th sept '09 (2.07p)

It's time to sell the copper miners now. ANTO 771p now.

h98
you have been very quiet lately,i hope you are well.
personally i would never bet against you when you are on the short side..halloween?
glad i dont hold these.
regards
jkd

Hi jkd,
I am just back from a long holiday. Certainly nice 2 hear from u.
Best regards,
h98

u still alive, hyleo.......id have thought u would have flung yourself off a bridge or high rise building by now.

never mind, why dont you sell yourself........or how about your shorts.....maybe they are worthless now as burnt long time ago

is ur holiday in a caravan ie. your new home

I wonder where marni is nowadays, hope he hasn't done what he said he wished me to do as above.

Anyway I think ANTO is good to short now as copper price has gone down.

h98
you got it wrong me thinks, marni is/was a she. by his own admission. maybe i just got confused? no doubt "they " would point out that at 771 in Nov we got it totally wrong and they would be right to do so.
regards
jkd

Thanks, jkd for pointing out. No wonder she was so bitter.
Well, I thought not many men would say such thing.

Hell has no fury like a woman scorned

Another 24 hour trade with CFD's

Bought 6000 CFD ANTO at 853 yesterday 15.30 p.m.
Sold 6000 at 903.50 today 10.20 a.m.

Add CFDADN and CFDANTO Good day today - not always so lucky thou.

Drinks are on me Stan

i know i need a (quality!) base metal miner in my portfolio, but have been undecided which is the best bet

any thoughts other than ANTO (blue)? ..... RIO (red)? ...... KAZ a vile performer - green)? ...... VED (black)?

I am mostly a trader not a long term investor.

Sometimes I need to wait a few weeks for the right prices, when particular shares
seem cheap, but I have been caught out with a falling knife a few times.

KAZ - I know you say other than, but I think once ENRC take over is out of the way and KAZ is paid about $850m in cash and then many of its own shares returned to it, then it would be in a great position ( cash rich and plenty of its own shares to either resell or cancel etc ) to move forward in its own right rather than being tied into ENRC's lack of progress. I like KAZ and have 20,000, admittedly at 335p.

FXPO - Iron ore in Europe, sells mostly as pellets within Europe but also to China etc. They do not need to move iron ore from miles away - Mocambique etc.
Problem seems that the shares are tightly held by directors, thus share price is volatile, but I think well worth buying if you can get them at about 175p or less.

I only follow a few miners - I also think Vedanta ( ? Aluminium ) is now sorting itself out and could be a buy at about 1150 - I shall probably wait now a few days to see if market settles back.

If our favourite AFN drops back I will probably buy that again, 142 / 139 p ??.

Nice in Benidorm today - sunny but cool, and I am feeling better than lately
Bob

i'm sure you don't mean AFN, so what should it be?
anyhow, thanks for your guidance and shall investigate further

Sorry got EPIC wrong - I mean Afren is it AFR ?

ah! i like them a lot and have held them for a good while now - and of course showing a healthy profit

"rekirkham - 19 Sep 2013 10:31 - 43 of 48, How kind RK... I accept -):

Wish I could float a suggestion Cynic as I used to like this sector, but have cooled on it over the last 6 months. I still look at Ved. though mainly because they seem to be quite diversified.

i too have avoided the sector because when everything was in the doldrums, base commodities suffered badly ....... however, we're fast emerging from those gloomy days and this will be a prime sector to benefit

one should probably watch the price of nickel too as that is a key and expensive component of stainless

Thanks, worth knowing, I seem to remember VED has a smelter but not sure about the nickel. I must revisit the sector for the reasons you give.

just looked at Kitco nickel charts ..... some very conflicting info there :-(

Have my chart set on gold at Kitco, but christ knows where that's going!

Anyone know the divi details? I have 1.92 to 7.08%.

Ex-divi 23rd April 2014 (8.61¢)

And some!

Well spotted! Amazing how an errant decimal point can make all the difference!
Divi is 86.1¢

METALS-Copper hits 11-wk high on tight supply
SYDNEY, May 19 (Reuters) - London copper hit its highest in 11 weeks on Monday as China pledged to quicken the pace of financial reform, supporting growth in demand for commodities as global exchange supplies of the metal dry up.
"It's been an impressive rally from the March lows with a very strong seasonal backdrop to copper ... total inventories are also declining very quickly at the moment," said analyst Mark Keenan at Societe Generale in Singapore.

Specs cut bullish bets in gold, raise copper, silver longs -CFTC
May 16 (Reuters) - Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets in gold futures and options, reversing the previous week's gain due to profit-taking, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday.
The group, also known as managed money, however, raised its net longs in silver and copper on a better economic outlook as U.S. equities measured by the S&P 500 index rose in the week to May 13, according to the CFTC's latest Commitments of Traders report.

Average price of copper I am advised is about $ 3.21 per pound.
It was recently down to about $3.29 - so now easing up again
Should be good for Antofagasta and khazikhyms, if you can buy on dips ?

Any comments

Sorry my copper prices are wrong -
was down to about $2.9 per pound some months ago

"Things are looking down for Chile-focused miner Antofagasta, Investec says, due mainly to the strength in sterling, an expected increase in the tax rate and the uncertain near-term outlook for the price of copper.

The effective tax rate is seen rising to 35% from fiscal year 2017 in comparison to 29% beforehand. In particular, the full 35% rate is expected to be applied to overseas cash returns.

As a result the broker has cut its price target for the stock to 690p (from 715p).

In parallel, the investment in capacity of recent years will probably see moderate oversupply over the next year or two, which may further undermine prices. To that one must add the near-term uncertainty about Chinese demand.

Hence Investec´s decision to maintain its 'sell' recommendation."

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta's revenues fell to $5,290.4m in the year to the end of December - 11.4% down on 2013 as realised copper prices dropped by 8.5% accompanied by a small decline in sales volumes.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell 17.8% to $2,221.6bn, as a result of lower revenue and an increase in cash costs offset by lower exploration and evaluation costs.

Antofagasta said the EBITDA margin remained strong at 42.0%, although this was down on 45.3% in 2013.

Net earnings fell 8.7% to $602.0 million, excluding the $142.2m deferred tax provision resulting from the changes in the Chilean tax law during 2014 (decrease of 30.3% to $459.8 million including this deferred tax provision). The decrease is primarily due to the decrease in EBITDA and a $88.3m increase in depreciation, principally at Centinela and Michilla.

Earnings per share for the year were 61.0 cents, excluding the deferred tax provision resulting from the changes in the Chilean tax law (46.6 cents including this provision).

Operating cash flow generation was $2,507.8 million in the period, $151.4 million lower than in 2013.

Chief executive Diego Hernández said: "I am pleased to report that Antofagasta's operating performance in a year of falling copper prices continued to be solid and steady.

"With our focus on managing costs across our operations, helped by consolidating the Centinela district among other innovative initiatives, the impact of lower revenue to operating cash flow was reduced.

"This reflects the underlying health of the business as does the strong EBITDA margins of 42% which are among the highest of our peers. Our strong balance sheet means that we can continue to invest throughout the cycle and we have a portfolio of high quality organic growth projects in the pipeline to secure our future.

"Although we remain cautious on the macro environment for 2015, we are pleased to announce a final dividend of 9.8 cents per share, which is in line with our stated dividend policy. Our strategy for Antofagasta remains unchanged: we are focussed on engaging with all our stakeholders to find solutions to long term issues reinforcing our licence to operate, and we concentrate on doing what we know best - producing copper, reducing costs and building a platform for long term growth across the cycles."

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta's copper, gold and molybdenum production fell in the first quarter compared with the previous three months. And the group has warned that full-year copper output will be below forecasts.

Copper production was 146,400 tonnes - 13.6% down on a year ago and 21.9% lower than he previous quarter, reflecting primarily the impact of disruptions at Los Pelambres during the quarter that resulted in lower throughput.

Gold production totalled 57,400 ounces - a 30.3% decrease the previous three months due to lower throughput at Los Pelambres and Centinela and similar to Q1 2014.

Molybdenum production at Los Pelambres was 2,100 tonnes in Q1 2015, compared with 2,400 tonnes in Q4 2014 principally due to lower throughput but 23.5% up a year ago as higher grade material was mined.

Chief executive Diego Hernández said: "As we have previously announced, the first quarter of this year has been affected by water issues of very different kinds at both Los Pelambres and at Centinela.

"At Los Pelambres protests by members of the local community concerned about the shortage of water in the region blocked access to the mine impacting production; while in the north of Chile our operations were disrupted by unprecedented heavy rains.

"After reaching agreement with the local community at Los Pelambres, normal operations resumed, as have operations at Centinela following the end of the rain storms.

"Although we expect to recover some of the lost production resulting from these disruptions, production for the year will be some 15,000 tonnes of copper lower than we originally forecast. However, we still expect our net cash costs for the year to be around $1.40/lb.

"Despite the disruption we have seen in this first quarter, we remain confident that our existing strategy of reducing costs, engaging with stakeholders to find solutions to long-term issues and investing through the cycle will continue to strengthen the group."

Citigroup stays sell on Antofagasta, target raised to 650p from 630p.

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta's first half copper and gold output fell in the first half although the group saw production recover in the second quarter.

Copper production in Q2 2015 was 157,000 tonnes, a 7.2% increase compared with the previous quarter, reflecting primarily the impact of the protests at Los Pelambres and the heavy rains at Centinela Concentrates in Q1

Group copper production in H1 2015 at 303,400 tonnes was 12.9% lower than in the same period last year primarily due to expected lower grades and lower throughput and recoveries at Los Pelambres.

Copper sales for the half year were 290,100 tonnes as bad weather delayed shipments over the period end which have normalised in July.

Gold production was 112,500 ounces in H1 2015, a 9.1% decrease on H1 2014 due to lower production at Los Pelambres.

Molybdenum production was 23.8% higher at 2,600 tonnes in Q2 2015 compared with Q1 2015 and 42.4% higher in H1 2015 compared with the previous year, principally due to a higher molybdenum-grade zone being mined during Q2 2015.

Chief executive Diego Hernández said: "Following the difficulties with protesters encountered at Los Pelambres and heavy rains at Centinela in the first quarter, we are pleased to report that production has been stronger in the second quarter.

"Whilst we have seen a positive recovery from these disruptions, overall performance during the first half of the year has not been as good as originally expected.

"Construction of Antucoya was completed on budget but we have experienced some commissioning issues on the crusher circuit which means we now expect first production to be delayed until the end of Q3, reducing full year guidance to 665,000 tonnes.

"We are confident that a recovery in existing mine performance combined with new volumes from Antucoya will lead to a marked improvement in production during the second half of the year.

"Despite the current weaker copper market environment, we have a strong competitive position as a low-cost producer and we remain confident in the strength of the copper market fundamentals in the medium to long term. We will continue with our longer-term strategy of reducing costs and investing through the cycle to strengthen the Group."

Credit Suisse note:
■ Event: ANTO has purchased a 50% interest in the Zaldivar copper mine from Barrick Gold and will become the operator with Barrick retaining a 50% stake. Total consideration is US$1,005m in cash ($980 upon closing, rest spread over five years). The transaction will be funded with cash and is expected by the company to be immediately earnings and cash flow accretive. The deal is expected to complete in Q415.
■ View: It is no surprise that ANTO has done a deal given previous CEO comments around growth by acquisition, the company's strong balance sheet and recent project delays. The valuation appears full and will likely rule out a special dividend for the foreseeable future. The company has said there is potential to expand both the mine's production base and mine life and also see synergy potential from 2016 but would not give precise detail at this stage.
■ Premium valuation: Our Barrick analyst valued 100% of the asset at $1.2bn using a WACC of 8% therefore on this basis the purchase price is at a 67% premium to NPV. Based on available data the transaction multiple equates to a PE of c11x on 2014, 16x under our 2015 base case (c280c copper) or c30x at spot (240c) copper prices. Although these assets are higher cost than ANTO's existing asset base, the deal is likely to be earnings accretive at spot prices or higher due to ANTO's net cash balance and low interest rates.
■ Zaldivar details: open pit heap-leach copper mine in Northern Chile. In 2014, it produced 100 kt copper, at a net cash cost of 179c/lb and PBT of $244m. It has 2.5mt of contained copper reserves and a LOM of 14 years.

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta's revenue fell to $1,785.9m in the six months to the end of June, 31.4% down on a year ago.

This was due to significant declines in copper and by-product prices and lower sales volumes due to delayed shipments from bad weather.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation was $561.6m, a 48.6% decline reflecting the lower revenue which was partly offset by a 18.9% decrease in operating costs.

Total operating costs were $1,224.3 million, $284.0 million lower than in H1 2014 of which $198 million was due to a reduction in costs and the balance was due to lower volumes.

Net earnings from continuing operations, were $86.3 million, in line with the decrease in EBITDA with improved net finance expenses and lower taxes.

Operating cash flow was $807.7 million compared with $1,170.0 million in the H1 2014

CitiBank note today:
"Time to Buy
We resume coverage on Antofagasta, following a restriction period, and upgrade from Sell to Buy with a £4.40/share price target (having been sellers since 2012). The stock has lost ~75% of its value over the past three years and has relative scarcity within the mining sector given its strong balance sheet, ability to self-fund at spot prices, and pure exposure to a structurally deficit commodity. We see ANTO as a “trough cycle survivor” which should appeal to investors despite the risk of a further copper price decline. Spot 2017F attributable EV/EBITDA at 7.2x, while not cheap, is still significantly below the likes of SCCO and BHP.
Trough Cycle Survivor
We calculate 1.3x 2017F Net Debt/EBITDA at spot copper. The company is FCF neutral at current copper prices in 2017+ (negative 2016 due to Encuentro capex). Volume growth is limited until Los Pelambres expansion or second Centinela concentrator; but we see value at current levels, even ex-growth.
Copper Structurally Good, Technically Challenged
Citi’s global commodity team maintains a positive outlook for copper, viewing 2Q16 as the trough in the price (averaging $4,300/t). Structural deficits are expected to emerge in 2020+, exacerbated by the current downturn and lack of investment. Yet, short-term we do acknowledge the downside price risks.
Zaldivar Incorporated and Other Key Changes in Our Model
Earnings uplift from Zaldivar is more than offset by a significantly lower copper price forecast, resulting in greater than 50% EPS downgrades for 2015-17F. NPV has dropped to £5.0/sh from £6.8/sh. Price target based on NPV and multiples based valuation methods is cut to £4.40/sh from £6.0/sh due to lower NPV and earnings.
4Q 2015 Production Report on 27th January and 2016 Roadmap
We expect 731kt copper guidance @$1.48/lb C1 for 2016. Key 2016 events include ramp-up of Antucoya, Encuentro oxides first production, integration and potential revised mine plan at Zaldivar, EIA submission for Los Pelambres (LP) expansion, Centinela Moly plant construction, and progress/resolution of LP lawsuit."

StocKMarketWire.com
Antofagasta finished 2015 with its best quarter of the year with copper and molybdenum production up against Q3 and gold production 22% higher.

Copper production in Q4 2015 was 169,900 tonnes, 8.2% higher than Q3 2015. This increase was primarily driven by higher production at Los Pelambres and Centinela Concentrates and the contribution from Antucoya and Zaldivar.

Group copper production for the full year of 630,300 tonnes was 10.6% lower than in 2014, primarily due to lower production at Los Pelambres and Centinela.

Gold production was 55,700 ounces in Q4 2015, a 21.8% increase on Q3 2015 as grades increased at Centinela.

Gold production for the year was 213,900 ounces compared to 270,900 in 2014, mainly reflecting lower grades at Centinela in the second half of the year.

Molybdenum production at Los Pelambres was 10,100 tonnes in 2015, compared to 7,900 tonnes in 2014, as a new, higher grade phase of the pit was mined.

Chief executive Diego Hernandez said: "We have finished the year strongly with our best quarter of the year. Copper and molybdenum production were up against Q3 and gold production was 22% higher. Our production benefited from an improved performance at Los Pelambres and Centinela, and the addition of new production from Antucoya and Zaldivar. As production rose we kept a tight grip on our costs, with net cash costs for the quarter falling to $1.38/lb, down 2.8% against Q3.

"Whilst we have finished the year on a good note, 2015 has been undeniably difficult. The continued deterioration of the macro-environment and associated falling commodity prices combined with several operational set-backs resulted in copper production declining 11% year-on-year and cash costs before by-product credits declining by 1% to USD1.81/lb. Although we achieved significant savings during the year and benefited from the weaker Chilean Peso and falling energy and diesel prices, this was outweighed by our lower production.

"Looking to 2016, we are focused on operational excellence and improving productivity across all our mines in order to continue to maintain a tight control on costs. We will benefit from growth at Antucoya and Centinela Concentrates and we will have a full year of production from our share of Zaldivar. With this focus on our operations, we expect the Group's total copper production for 2016 to be in the range of 710,000 and 740,000 tonnes at a net cash cost of USD1.35/lb."

Deutsche Bank today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 480p (from 530p).

JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its overweight investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 360p (from 380p).

Investec today reaffirms its sell investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 305p (from 263p).

i think the markets may correct so am more than happy to have banked a very tasty 55p profit after less than a week

shall almost certainly re-enter the fray at a later date

Britain's top share index rallied on Thursday, rebounding from the previous session's falls after a drop in the dollar boosted commodity prices and gave a lift to mining and oil shares.

Britain's FTSE 100 was up 1.1 percent at 5,898.76 points at its close, snapping a three-day losing streak that had seen the index shed 4 percent.

The rally came as expectations for a rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve evaporated. That sent the dollar tumbling, making dollar-priced crude oil and metals cheaper for holders of other currencies.

ANTO
if you're brave, you'll see that ANTO is just flirting with 50 dma southwards
if you think that today's fall is overdone (8.5% = 38.5p, then consider buying

meanwhile i've just received a flash that BLT is now down 5.2% today

Most broker notes are negative in the sector, though acknowledging that the commodity market is cyclical.
RBC summary today:
"Fundamentals remain very challenging in the mining sector. Commodity oversupply is not improving fast enough and long-term demand conditions are deteriorating. Our analysis suggests there will still be some time before the erosion in cash flow and balance sheet strength stop; a heightened concern for the diversified miners as debt levels are already at record levels vs EV. We acknowledge that sentiment is very poor, but we do not expect a fundamental turnaround in the near-term and this could have material implications on equity value."

Another miner bounced strongly.

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta's revenues fell by 34% to USD3,394.6m in the year to the end of December with realised copper prices falling almost 24% during the period and sales volumes down by 9.5%, following a challenging year for the group.

Chief executive Diego Hernandez said: "Each of our mines continued to generate cash flow at the operating level despite the exceptionally challenging operating environment. The year was one of change and the Group has emerged stronger, more focussed on its core business and operating at significantly lower costs.

"During the year we started production at the Antucoya mine, sold the water division and purchased 50% of the Zaldivar copper mine while closing our oldest operation, Michilla. Now, in 2016 we expect our net cash costs to return to levels we have not seen since 2012. Combined with our healthy balance sheet we will be in a better position to weather the current market conditions.

"We know that copper is a cyclical industry and as a result of the actions that we have taken over the past year we will be positioned to benefit from the recovery when it comes. In the meantime, our focus is on optimising our operations and projects under construction to cut costs and free-up cash flow whilst retaining the flexibility to accelerate investment for future growth if circumstances are appropriate."

Financial highlights:
- Operating cost savings of $245 million, higher than targeted reducing unit cash costs by 11c/lb and mining division operating costs by 8%.

- EBITDA from continuing operations fell 58.4% to $890.7 million, as revenues declined

- Net earnings from continuing operations fell to $5.5 million, from $422.4 million following lower prices and, lower taxes and minority interests. Including the profit from the water division net earnings were $608.2 million.

- Consistent with the Group's dividend policy, 35% minimum payout achieved. Given the 3.1 cents per share interim dividend and the minimum payout of full year earnings policy, the Board is not recommending a final dividend.

- Cash flow from operations decreased by 65.8% to $858.3 million, compared with $2,507.8 million in 2014.

- Capital expenditure for the year was $1,048.5 million, $591.8 million lower than in 2014 and some $250 million less than originally planned driven by savings identified to protect cash flow.

- Attributable net debt at the end of 2015 was $525.4 million from a net cash position of $315.4 million at the end of the previous year, following the acquisition of a 50% interest in the Zaldivar mine.

Canaccord comment:
"These were poor results, towards the bottom of a very wide consensus range. Antofagasta had already reported 2015 copper production of 630,300t (down 11%), gold production of 213,900oz (down 21%) and molybdenum production of 10,100t (up 8%) as well as average cash costs before by-product credits of 181c/lb, down 1%, and net costs of 150c/lb, up 5%. Given lower production and weaker realised prices (228c/lb copper in 2015, off 24%), EBITDA fell significantly, to US$891M, down 58% from US$2,141M in 2014, and relative to our forecast of US$1,078M and Bloomberg consensus of US $1,035M (range US$877-1,481M). Eps on continuing operations was 0.6c, down 99% from 42.8c in 2014 and relative to our eps forecast of 3.3c (Bloomberg consensus 7.8c, range -9.6c to +28c). As expected, no final dividend was declared, given that the interim payment of 3.1c exceeded the 35% minimum payout ratio set in the dividend policy. It’s worth noting that the company did not give its usual collated consensus, saying that the range was so wide as to render the consensus misleading. Net debt was US$1,024M, worse than our US$985M forecast.

Stieffel comment:
"Bottom line. Antofagasta shares have rallied over 40% since mid-January 2016 (vs. the FTSE Mining index up 23% over the same period) and at the current share price of 534p are at a level close to our valuation price of 558p. Whilst we are confident that Antofagasta remains the sleep easy long-term macro copper investment with the shares likely to track copper prices in the medium term, we think investors wishing to bank some profits following the significant recovery in the sector year to date might want to consider taking some money off the table following the last two months’ share price performance. Antofagasta remains a stable cash flowing business with a relatively strong balance sheet and offers investors relative safety in the available copper investment landscape, in our view."

JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its overweight investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 600p (from 360p).

Deutsche Bank today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 510p (from 495p).

Credit Suisse summary:
"Valuation: The company is trading on a 2016E EV/EBITDA of c10x or c9.5x at spot prices, a significant premium to European peers. We forecast FCF yields close to 0% and a DY of 1.5% in 2016 based on the company’s 35% payout ratio policy. We reduce our target price from £4 to £3.8 to reflect higher year end net debt."

JP Morgan Cazenove today downgrades its investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) to neutral (from overweight) and cut its price target to 410p (from 600p).

Credit Suisse today reaffirms its underperform investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 360p (from 380p).

Haitong Securities today upgrades its investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) to buy (from neutral) and cut its price target to 484p (from 553p).

Deutsche Bank today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 585p (from 470p).

Berenberg today reaffirms its sell investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 370p (from 365p).

Credit Suisse today reaffirms its underperform investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 400p (from 360p).

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 485p (from 515p).

RBC Capital Markets today reaffirms its sector performer investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 500p (from 410p)

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta's revenues fell by 18.5% to $1,448.0 million in the six months to the end of June, on lower copper prices and sales volumes, and the closure of Michilla at the end of 2015.

But EBITDA increased 2.3% to $571.6 million despite the fall in revenue, reflecting a 24.7% reduction in operating costs and a first time EBITDA contribution from Zaldivar and other associates.

EBITDA margin strengthened to 39.5%, up from 31.5% and operating cost reductions of $124 million were achieved, contributing to savings of $0.11/lb in cash costs.

Operating profit and earnings per share fell by 9.2% and 3.3% respectively.

Operating cash flow generation of $774.1 million in the period, 4.2% less than in the first half of 2015.

Capital expenditure of $385.4 million, $276.9 million lower than in the first half of 2015. Full year expenditure expected to be lower than original guidance.

Interim dividend of 3.1 cents per share. Dividend policy to pay a minimum pay-out ratio of 35% of net earnings for the full year remains unchanged.

Group net debt of $1,039.7 million, almost unchanged since the end of 2015.

Chief executive Iv�n Arriagada said: "A 24.7% reduction in operating costs offset the decline in the copper price and lower sales volumes resulting in EBITDA of $571.6 million, 2.3% higher than in the same period last year. "Continued management actions to reduce costs and preserve cash contributed to our EBITDA margin strengthening to 39.5%, from 26.2% in the full year 2015. While reducing costs in absolute terms is important we are focused on achieving improved efficiencies in a sustainable manner to ensure long-term shareholder value.

"Given the current economic uncertainty we are cautious in our outlook and remain conservative in our approach to managing capital. The Board has declared a dividend of 3.1 cents per share equal to 35% of net earnings at the interim, in line with our policy to pay a minimum of 35% of full year net earnings which remains unchanged.

"At Los Pelambres, following the agreement reached with the Caimanes community in April, the two longstanding court cases relating to the Mauro tailings dam have recently been resolved. Although an appeal is possible, it is unlikely to be accepted and Los Pelambres and the Antofagasta group now move into a new era of community engagement."

JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its neutral investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 390p (from 380p).

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 575p (from 485p).

Canaccord Genuity today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 545p (from 505p).

Jefferies International today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 550p (from 500p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta reports a strong third quarter, with copper production up 8.7% versus the previous three months and Antucoya reaching production capacity in August.

Group copper production for the year to date of 503,900 tonnes was 9.4% higher than in the same period last year, primarily due to new production from Zaldavar and Antucoya, offset by the closure of Michilla at the end of 2015

Gold production was 70,300 ounces in the quarter, a 33.1% increase on Q2 2016 largely due to higher gold grades at Centinela.

Molybdenum production at Los Pelambres was 1,900 tonnes in Q3 2016, compared to 1,600 tonnes in Q2 2016 with higher grades at Los Pelambres.

Chief executive Ivan Arriagada said: "Performance is expected to continue to improve during the final quarter of the year, with full year 2016 copper production expected to be close to the lower end of the original guidance range of 710,000 to 740,000 tonnes.

"Since becoming CEO I have continued to focus our efforts on reducing costs and improving operational efficiencies, and here again we are making good progress with net cash costs decreasing by 5.6% to $1.18/lb. We now expect cash costs for the full year to be $1.25/lb, 5c/lb lower than previously guided.

"As part of these efficiency programmes we have also reviewed our mine plans and wider operational activities to improve decision making and the accuracy of forecasting. This has involved a rigorous assessment of our plans with a focus on profitable tonnes and a higher level of certainty without compromising safety or operational standards. Following this review, production in 2017 is expected to be in the range of 685,000 to720,000 tonnes."

Slump in Antofagasta.

Shares in Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) slumped by more than 6% in early trade on 26 October after the company’s operational update for the third quarter of 2016 indicated that full year production is likely to come in at the lower end of the previously announced 710,000-740,000 tonnes of copper.

That was in spite of a strong quarterly performance in which costs fell and production rose significantly. Net cash costs for the full year are now expected to come in at US$1.25 per pound, US$0.05 lower than previously anticipated, according to chief executive Ivan Arriagada.

But in the context of a copper market that remains weak in spite of price strength in other areas of the commodities complex, Antofagasta is now forecasting production to be in a lower range again next year, at between 685,000 and 710,000 tonnes.

As it is, analysts are not convinced Antofagasta will even hit its target this year.

“Antofagasta will have to have a very strong quarter to hit the bottom end of 2016 guidance,” said Liberum in a broader note on the copper sector that it issued following the Antofagasta results.

Liberum noted that previous guidance for 2017 from Antofagasta ran in the 750,000 tonne range, but it also pointed out that in the copper space Antofagasta isn’t the only cutting or missing targets.

Downgrades from BHP Billiton (LON:BLT), Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) and Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) combined with the new bottom-end numbers from Antofagasta will have taken 166,000 tonnes of forecast copper production out of the market by the year end, Liberum noted.

Even so, the market looks likely to remain in surplus until 2019, on the strength of current global production. Liberum is thus bearish on copper in general, and adds that pricing weakness is also likely to be exacerbated by dollar strength.

However, that call isn’t completely cut and dried. Ongoing protests at the massive Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, owned by the Chinese-backed MMG could curtail supply.

And there’s also the possibility that the ongoing Chinese property boom, which pundits are constantly calling an end to, may actually continue and drive up demand for copper.

If that’s the case, the financial impact of production downgrades may be off-set by copper price strength. But no-one in the market is holding their breath for that.

For its part, the other big player in copper, Glencore, is set to release third quarter production results on 3 November. We’ll probably get a further insight into the state of play then.

According to the FT, the declared short interest is c20%. Not sure if that's correct.

Exane BNP Paribas today downgrades its investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) to underperform (from neutral) and cut its price target to 435p (from 545p).

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 580p (from 575p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta says that following the closure of the Michilla mine at the end of 2015 it has today signed an agreement to sell Minera Michilla SA to Haldeman Mining Company SA, for $52 million.

The transaction includes the open pit mine, the underground mine, the cathode production plant and various mining properties.

Antofagasta will retain the acid terminal and other facilities located at Caleta Michilla, which are currently used by its Centinela and Antucoya mining operations.

01/12/16 - Exane BNP Paribas today reaffirms its underperform investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and set its price target at 600p.

07/12/16 - Credit Suisse today reaffirms its underperform investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 530p (from 450p).

Barclays Capital today (09/01/17) reaffirms its equal weight investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 650p (from 510p)

Peel Hunt today (11/01/17) reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 675p (from 580p)

StockMarketWire.com
Mining giant Antofagasta has agreed to exit the Alto Maipo hydroelectric project in Chile.

Antofagasta's subsidiary Minera Los Pelambres has been reviewing its options over its 40% investment in the project since October following the announcement of a forecast 10-20% total cost overrun.

Antofagasta said that yesterday (19 January) the project's controlling shareholder, AES Gener SA announced an update on the progress of negotiations between itself, Los Pelambres and lenders, which have reached an advanced stage, subject to final approval by the lenders.

Los Pelambres has agreed to transfer its 40% interest in Alto Maipo to Gener and the electricity price applicable to the power purchase agreement with Alto Maipo is reduced.

Antofagasta chief executive Ivan Arriagada said: "Mining is our core business. We entered into this project when electricity supply in the central region of Chile was constrained to ensure that Los Pelambres would be able to access a reliable source of electricity at competitive prices.

"We are now close to fulfilling this objective at an improved price, and to ensure a clean, stable and long-term energy supply for Los Pelambres."

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 800p (from 675p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta's EBITDA for 2016 rose to $1,626.1 million - 78.7% higher than the previous year - as operating costs, before exceptional items, fell by 8.1% and revenue increased by 12.3%.

Operating cash flow generation of $1,457.3 million, up 69.8% on a year ago on the back of stronger margins and higher production.

Capital expenditure was down by 24.2% to $795.1 million as the Antucoya project and Centinela expansion were completed during the year.

The group reported operating cost reduction of $242 million, of which $176 million was achieved under the 'cost and competitiveness' programme which reduced mine site costs by 11c/lb.

Exceptional items during the year totalled $386.4 million after tax, which included the previously announced write off of the group's interest in Alto Maipo, and an impairment charge against Antucoya.

Chief executive Ivan Arriagada said: "2016 has been a year of operational delivery for Antofagasta putting us on a stronger and larger production base from which to grow.

"The successful integration of Zaldavar and the ramp-up of Antucoya - alongside the completion of the expansion of Centinela Concentrates - have contributed to a 12.5% rise in copper production to 709,400 tonnes.

"But volume increases are not the whole story at Antofagasta. We are focused on growth through profitable tonnes.

A combination of measures to boost productivity, improve efficiencies and reduce costs has led to sustainable mine site cost reductions of $176 million in 2016.

"This performance helped cash flow from operations increase by 70% to $1.5 billion during the year whilst our EBITDA margins improved from 28% to 45%.

"In the medium term we expect to see a steady shift from a copper market in balance to a slight deficit, leading to further improvement in prices.

"The Board has decided that in view of the Company's improved performance and the more positive outlook to declare a final dividend of 15.3 cents per share, bringing the dividend for the full year to 18.4 cents per share, which represents 53% of underlying earnings per share, significantly more than the company's commitment to pay-out a minimum of 35%.

"Antofagasta's cautious approach has served us well in what is a cyclical industry, providing us with a stable operating base and a strong balance sheet.

"As a company we were founded with an entrepreneurial spirit, one that looks for opportunities where others do not see them and it is this attitude - combined with a continued commitment to capital discipline - that informs our outlook.

"Consequently, our focus in 2017 is on developing those projects that offer all our stakeholders the best returns - such as the incremental expansion at Los Pelambres, which we expect to approve by the end of the year - and will underpin the continued success of Antofagasta."

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 865p (from 800p).

Berenberg today (22/03/17) reaffirms its sell investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 650p (from 515p).

Jefferies International today (23/03/17) reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 800p (from 700p).

HSBC today (18/04/17) reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 760p (from 750p).

Peel Hunt today (24/04/17) reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 875p (from 865p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta's copper production increased to 171,900 tonnes in the first quarter - 9.4% up on a year ago - driven by higher output at Centinela, and Antucoya operating at full production.

Compared with the previous quarter, copper production fell by 16.4% due to expected lower grades at Los Pelambres and Centinela concentrates.

Gold production was 53,300 ounces in Q1 2017, 6.0% lower than in Q1 2016 and 41.5% lower than in the previous quarter as grades declined at Centinela.

Molybdenum production at Los Pelambres increased by 29.4% compared to the same period in 2016 as grades increased and by 10.0% compared with the previous quarter as recoveries improved.

Chief executive Ivan Arriagada said: "We have started the year with a continued focus on cost efficiency and productivity improvements.

"Production is in line with our expectations and is some 9% higher than in the same quarter of last year.

"When compared with the last quarter of 2016 the lower production reflects the expected grade decline at Los Pelambres and Centinela.

"Cash costs before by-product credits were 8% lower compared with the same quarter last year as we continue to progress our cost improvement measures.

"We reassert our guidance for the year of 685-720,000 tonnes of copper at a cash cost before by-product credits of $1.55/lb and a net cash cost of $1.30/lb."

Liberum Capital today reaffirms its sell investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and set its price target at 400p.

Deutsche Bank today (19/05/17) downgrades its investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) to sell (from hold) and cut its price target to 700p (from 800p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta's group copper production for the first six months of the year rose to 346,300 tonnes - 7.1% up on a year ago.

This was primarily due to higher production at Centinela and Antucoya.

Gold production during the second quarter increased by 10.5% to 58,900 ounces and for the first six months by 2.5% due to improving grades at Centinela.

Molybdenum production at Los Pelambres increased in Q2 to 2,400 tonnes and for the year to date was 36.4% higher than in the corresponding period last year at 4,500 tonnes principally due to higher molybdenum grades.

Chief executive Ivan Arriagada said: "Our copper production performance during the year so far has been stronger than in the same period last year, especially at Centinela and Antucoya, which is now operating at full capacity.

"We have continued our strategy of focusing on improving efficiencies and achieving savings. This has resulted in a net cash cost of $1.20/lb for the second quarter of 2017, down more than 5% on the previous quarter.

"Production and costs remain in-line with our expectations and our guidance for the year is unchanged."

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta had a strong first half with revenues up 41.9% at $2,049m, as realised copper prices increased by 25.3% and sales volumes rose by 14.3% and EBITDA increased 87.8% to $1,079.8m.

The EBITDA margin rose from 39.8% in the first half of 2016 to 52.7%, the highest half year margin reported by the group since 2012.

Operating cost reductions of $44m were achieved, as part of the 'costs and competitiveness' programme, contributing to savings of $0.06/lb in cash costs during the current period

The board has declared an interim ordinary dividend of 10.3 cents per share, which represents a pay-out ratio of 35%, consistent with the group's dividend policy.

Chief executive Ivan Arriagada said: "Antofagasta has had a strong first half year, with EBITDA up 88% versus HY 2016.

"Our performance benefited from increases in the copper price, higher sales volumes and tight cost management. As a result, EBITDA margins have returned to over 50% and cash flow from operations is up 48% to $1.1 billion.

"This better performance means the Company's interim dividend has significantly increased compared to last year to 10.3 cents per share with the Company's policy of paying out a minimum of 35% of underlying net earnings unchanged.

"Antofagasta's strategy remains focused on producing profitable tonnes through reducing costs, making improvements in productivity and efficiency and the application of innovative solutions.

"A disciplined approach to capital allocation underpins our decision-making process. Projects and future developments must compete internally for capital with any excess cash distributed to shareholders.

"The Company is well positioned for future growth, generating strong cash flows and improving returns against a background of a recovery in copper demand. The outlook for Antofagasta is positive - we have the assets, capabilities and strategy to continue to create long-term value for all of our stakeholders."

HSBC today reaffirms its reduce investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 730p (from 720p).

JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its underweight investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 670p (from 740p).

Citigroup today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and set its price target at 1100p.

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 1010p (from 1000p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta reported copper production in the fourth quarter of 2017 fell 1.3% to 177,800 tonnes compared to the previous quarter.

Higher production at Los Pelambres and the ramp-up of the Encuentro Oxides project offset lower production at Centinela Concentrates.

The slowdown in copper production in Q4 - versus the previous quarter - weighed on full year output.

Group copper production for the full year was 704,300 tonnes, in line with guidance but 0.7% lower than in 2016.

This was due to the impact of the expected lower grades at Los Pelambres and Centinela, which was offset by Encuentro Oxides coming into production in October and following the completion of the ramp-up at Antucoya in 2016.

Gold production was 40,500 ounces in Q4 2017, a 32.0% decrease on Q3 2017. For the full year production was 212,400 ounces, 21.6% lower than in 2016, reflecting lower grades and recoveries at Centinela.

Molybdenum production at Los Pelambres was 3,300 tonnes in Q4 2017. While output for the full year rose 47.9% on higher grades to 10,500 compared to the previous year.

Net cash costs were $1.36/lb in Q4 2017, a 15.3% increase compared with the previous quarter. This was primarily due to higher cash costs before by-products credits and the lower gold grade at Centinela and lower by-product revenue.

Group production in 2018 is expected to be in the range of 705,000 to 740,000 tonnes of copper, 190,000 to 210,000 ounces of gold and 11,500 to 12,500 tonnes of molybdenum.

Chief executive Ivan Arriagada said: 'Antofagasta had a strong year operationally. Copper production at 704,300 tonnes was in line with guidance and came in at a net cash cost of $1.25/lb.

'The new additions to our portfolio at Zaldivar, Antucoya and Encuentro Oxides now account for 25% of Group production, helping offset declines at our mature assets and providing Antofagasta with a platform for growth as copper prices recover,' Arriagada said.

JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its underweight investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 660p (from 700p).

Citigroup today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and set its price target at 1130p.

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 950p (from 1050p)

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta reported EBITDA (earnings) jumped 59.1% to $2.59bn last year buoyed by rising copper prices and sales which helped offset lower gold revenue.

A final dividend of 40.6 cents per share was declared, bringing the total dividend for the year to 50.9 cents per share, a 177% increase compared to 2016 .

Revenues increased 31.1% to $4.75bn, while operating costs, before exceptional items, rose by $218.9m to $2.32bn driven by increased costs at the mining division.

Copper production decreased by 0.7% to 704,300 tonnes while copper sales rose 1.5%, compared to 2016. The fall in production was weighed by lower grades at Los Pelambres and Centinela.

The LME copper price of $2.51 per pound at the beginning of 2017 rose to $3.27 per pound by year-end, averaging $2.80 per pound over the whole year, an increase of 27% compared to the previous year.

Gold production fell 21.6% to 212,400 ounces while gold sales slipped 19.6% compared to 2016. The fall in production came amid lower grades at Los Pelambres and a shift to higher copper content ores at Centinela. Molybdenum production, however, was boosted by 47.9% year on year by higher grades.

Group production in 2018 is expected to between 705,000 and 740,000 tonnes of copper, 190,000 to 210,000 ounces of gold and 11,500 to 12,500 tonnes of molybdenum.

Copper production is expected to grow quarter-by-quarter through the year as grades improve, with approximately 45% of the year's production expected in the first half of the year.

The miner reported operating cash flow generation of $2.5bn, up 71.2% from 2016 on the back of stronger margins and higher sales.

Capital expenditure was up by 13.1% to $899 million amid increased capitalised stripping costs at Centinela and Antucoya, and higher sustaining capital expenditure. Chief executive Ivan Arriagada said: 'We have continued to invest through the cycle while maintaining our focus on cost discipline and operating performance. As a result, as copper prices rose in 2017 Antofagasta had another successful year completing the development of Encuentro Oxides, meeting our safety target of zero fatalities and achieving both our production and cost guidance.' 'EBITDA increased by 59% to $2.6 billion with operating cash flow rising to $2.5 billion. Testament to the improved copper market and our continuing cost management programme, our EBITDA margin rose to 54% - the highest level since 2012 when the copper price was 30% higher. As a result of this performance the Board has recommended a final dividend of 40.6 cents per share which, combined with the interim dividend, brings the total dividend for the year to 50.9 cents per share, an increase of 177% on 2016, and represents a cash payout of 67% of earnings.' 'Our priorities for 2018 are continued capital discipline and the next phase of our growth - notably the review and expected approval of the Los Pelambres Incremental Expansion project and progressing expansion plans at Centinela.

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 980p (from 950p).

Deutsche Bank today upgrades its investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) to hold (from sell) and raised its price target to 1000p (from 900p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta copper and gold production fell in the first quarter of the year compared to a year ago, while Molybdenum production rose. The miner maintained its full year production guidance.

Copper production in Q1 2018 decreased by 10.5% to 153,800 tonnes compared with the same quarter in 2017 mainly due to the anticipated lower grades.

Gold production was 32,300 ounces in Q1 2018, 39.4% lower than in Q1 2017 and 20.4% lower than in the previous quarter as grades were down at Centinela.

Molybdenum production increased by 40.9% compared to the same period in 2017 due to better grades and recoveries.

'As planned and in line with budget the year has started with lower grades at our operations,' the firm said.

Net cash costs increase to $1.54 per pound compared to $1.27 per pound in Q1 2017. Net cash costs guidance, however, remained unchanged at $1.35 per pound. The increase in cash costs during the quarter comes as Los Pelambres successfully completed labour negotiations with the plant union and in March with the mine union.

The one-off signing bonuses related to these three-year agreements increased Los Pelambres' cash costs by 8c per pound and group cash costs by 4c per pound for the quarter, equivalent to 2c per pound and 1c per pound on an annual basis.

Guidance for the year remained unchanged as group copper production for the full year is expected to be 705,000 tonnes to 740,000 tonnes.

Production is expected to increase quarter-by-quarter during the year as grades improve at the operations to achieve guided grades for the full year, the firm said

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 965p (from 980p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta said Tuesday it had discovered and cleared blockage of the pipeline that transports concentrates from the processing plant at Los Pelambres to the port at Los Vilos on 5 May.

The firm estimated it would take up to three months for the stockpiles at the plant and the port to return to normal levels.

The impact of the blockage on production for the six months to 30 June was estimated to be approximately 10,000 tonnes of copper. Sales in the same period were expected to be impacted by some 15,000 tonnes, the firm said.

Full-year production remained unchanged, however, at 705,000 to 740,000 tonnes.

Exane BNP Paribastoday reaffirms its neutral investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 1010p (from 820p).

Morgan Stanley today reaffirms its underweight investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 800p (from 620p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta said Wednesday copper and gold production rose in the second quarter of the year compared to a year ago. The miner maintained its full year production guidance.

Copper production in Q2 increased by 6.1% to 163,200 tonnes compared to the previous quarter amid increased sulphide grades and higher throughput at all operations. But half year copper output fell 8.5% to 317,000 tonnes weighed down by lower grades mined.

Gold production increased 22.9% to 39,700 in Q2 but first half output fell by 35.8% to 72,000 ounces quarter as grades were down at Centinela.

Molybdenum production fell by 9.7% to 2,800 tonnes for the quarter.

Net cash costs were $1.50 a pound in Q2, a 2.6% decrease compared with the previous quarter, as lower cash costs before by-product credits were partially offset by lower by-product credits.

Guidance for the year remained unchanged as group copper production for the full year is expected to be 705,000 tonnes to 740,000 tonnes.

Cost guidance for the full year remained unchanged with net cash costs expected to come in at $1.35 per lb.

JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its underweight investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and raised its price target to 780p (from 750p).

HSBC today upgrades its investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) to hold (from reduce) and raised its price target to 760p (from 750p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta downwardly narrowed its copper guidance for the full-year Wednesday despite posting a 15% increase in copper production in the third quarter.

Copper production guidance for the full year was narrowed a range of 705,000 to 725,000 tonnes, down from 705,000 tonnes to 740,000 tonnes previously.

Copper production in the third quarter increased by 15.4% to 188,300 tonnes compared to the previous quarter while gold production increased 21.2% to 48,100 but first nine months of output fell by 30.1% to 120,100 ounces as grades were down at Centinela.

Molybdenum production rose by 57.1% to 4,400 tonnes from the previous quarter driven largely by higher grades and recoveries at Los Pelambres. Net cash costs were $1.27 a pound for the quarter, a 15.3% decrease compared with the previous quarter, supported by lower cash costs before by-product credits. Net cash cost guidance for the full year was unchanged at $1.35 a pound.

Total capital expenditure for the year was expected to be less than the $1.0bn previously guided, the company said.

In 2019 production was expected to increase to 750,000 to 790,000 tonnes of copper with higher average grades, particularly at Centinela Concentrates and Zaldivar, the minder added. 'As expected, copper production increased 15% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 188,300 tonnes in Q3. Production volumes will continue to grow, with the fourth quarter expected to be particularly strong,' said Ivan Arriagada.

'While we benefited from higher production in the quarter, our disciplined approach to costs has allowed us to combat inflationary pressures during the year which, combined with the strong molybdenum market, has contributed to a 15% fall in our net cash costs to $1.27/lb and for the full year guidance remains unchanged at $1.35/lb.'

Citigroup today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 980p (from 1050p).

StockMarketWire.com
Antofagasta said Thursday it was granted approval to expand its Los Pelambres mine with first production expected in the second half of 2021.

The expansion of the Los Pelambres mine, which is 60% owned by Antofagasta and 40% owned by consortiums led by JX Nippon and Mitsubishi, would add an average of 60,000 tonnes of copper a year to the mine's production over the first 15 years of operation, Antofagasta said.

The expansion would boost annual copper production from 40,000 tonnes in the first year at the expanded throughput to 70,000 tonnes towards the end of a 15 year period, the miner said.

Construction of the $1.3bn expansion would start at the beginning of 2019 and first production was expected in the second half of 2021, it added. Throughput at the plant would be increased from the current capacity of 175,000 tonnes of ore per day to an average of 190,000 tonnes of ore per day.

The capital cost of the project also included $500m for a desalination plant and water pipeline.

'The expansion of our world-class Los Pelambres mine is an important step forward in the advancement of the Group's organic growth pipeline. The expansion project will add 60,000 tonnes a year of low cost copper production at this long-life operation and will ensure that it remains a first quartile producer for many years to come,' said Ivan Arriagada, the CEO of Antofagasta.

'The project includes the construction of a desalination plant and water pipeline which will also benefit the existing operation in cases of prolonged or severe drought, and for a potential further phase of expansion.'

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 930p (from 1000p).

Peel Hunt today reaffirms its add investment rating on Antofagasta PLC (LON:ANTO) and cut its price target to 920p (from 930p).