Investec slapped a BUY reco on this late yesterday whilst broker Panmure has a firm hold.


National Express Group PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Investec Securities
07-12-09 BUY 116.00 29.93 137.18 35.46

Panmure Gordon
07-12-09 HOLD 118.98 30.88 143.17 37.16

Be quick then cyners........

And another broker BUY reco....

17-Dec-09 National Express Group NEX Bank of America Buy 185.00p 220.00p - Reiteration

220p SP target....

they also remain a fairly strong t/o target .... can't remember what stagecoach offered them a little while back, which was turned down

Yep was a lot higher than present SP.

BROKER CALL: National Express on the road to recovery

18 December, 2009 06:17:27 AM


Morgan Stanley resumes coverage with an overweight recommendation and 230p a share price target as it says NEX is firmly back on the road to recovery. The rights issue solves for the time being the funding crisis, while the management will be bolstered by the appointment of Dean Finch as chief executive. Broker says: 'At the current price NEX trades on a both a P/E and an EV/EBIT (ex-rail) for 2011e of 7.6x versus its peers on 8x on average. We are surprised that a "pure bus play" with now sector average financial leverage should trade at a discount to its peers, especially given the depressed profit margins and scope for recovery over and above our forecasts.'

RNS Number : 4471E
National Express Group PLC
21 December 2009



National Express Group PLC




Pre Close Statement







National Express Group PLC ("National Express" or "the Group"), the international public transport operator, today releases a pre-close trading update ahead of the year ending 31 December 2009.




Summary




Trading has continued in line with the trends reported in the third quarter Interim Management Statement on 22 October 2009, with full year profit expected to be consistent with the previous outlook.




Overall, the underlying revenue* trend has stabilised in the fourth quarter, in line with the previously reported rate. Both the UK and Spain continue to deliver a strong operating performance, with cost efficiencies offsetting areas of revenue weakness. Action in North America will start to address continued underperformance in operational cost management, while revenue has declined as expected on previous lower contract renewals.




During the fourth quarter, the Group has successfully delivered its key objectives:





We have successfully completed a strongly supported rights issue to achieve a more robust capital structure and significantly reduce debt to an appropriate level;


We have resolved our outstanding rail issues, by completing the exit from the loss-making East Coast franchise in November 2009 and with the UK government indicating that the Group will continue to operate its remaining two rail franchises to their normal termination dates in 2011**;


We have appointed Dean Finch as Group Chief Executive, to focus on delivering our future strategy; driving cost efficiency, maximising cash generation and selectively growing the business where value is enhanced.





These developments have built on our earlier success, with annualised cost savings of 50 million secured in 2009 and strong organic cash generation reducing underlying debt.




Performance




UK Coach has returned to underlying revenue growth, of 4%, in the fourth quarter, with successful marketing and yield management offering even better value for our customers. Our new Birmingham coach station has opened for business, delivering a major improvement in customer experience. UK Bus underlying revenue growth has remained resilient at 2% year to date, despite the ongoing impact of higher regional unemployment. Fares are being held, to support customer retention and encourage travel, and we have optimised route coverage to protect profitability. In Rail, reduced demand in East Anglia continues to be offset through revenue support. The final element of the 2009 UK cost reduction programme has been announced, to deliver the Group's full 50 million of annualised savings, and placing the UK business in a stronger position for 2010.




Encouragingly, in Spain the rate of underlying revenue decline has improved to 5%, although economic conditions remain challenging. Urban operations have been relatively stable, while there are signs of improvement in regional travel revenue. In long distance travel, operating kilometres have been reduced to match lower demand. Extensions of several concessions have been secured for a period of 10 years, reflecting a commitment by regional authorities to bus transport as a more efficient and sustainable solution.




As expected, revenue in North America has declined with the start of the new school year, reflecting previous lower contract renewals. Performance in managing costs, particularly from double-running in the centralisation of operations, has been disappointing, impacting margin. This will benefit from a stronger management action plan to be rolled out in 2010, supported by tailoring of the Business Transformation programme to optimise cost and benefit.




Commenting on the statement, Executive Chairman, John Devaney, said:




"This has been a challenging year for National Express but, as it draws to a close, I am pleased that we have tackled and resolved our significant issues. We have eliminated the loss-making elements of our rail business and restored our balance sheet through a well-supported rights issue. National Express will enter 2010 on a sound basis, enabling our new Group Chief Executive Dean Finch and the team to focus on improving the performance of our market-leading businesses and delivering shareholder value."







Enquiries:




National Express Group PLC



Jez Maiden, Group Finance Director
020 7506 4324

Nicole Lander, Director of Communications
0121 460 8401






Maitland



Neil Bennett/George Hudson
020 7379 5151

sticky .... condense, condense, condense or edit, edit, edit! .... bought a few the other day and shall prob just sit on them for a few months

Tipped Yesterday.....

Sunday Times

At the start of the year National Express looked to be skidding off the tracks.The bus and train group was weighed down by a toxic mix of mounting losses on its East Coast rail franchise and too much debt. In short, the City feared for its future.

Bids from rival Stagecoach may have failed but as the year draws to a close National Express, against all odds, looks well placed to start motoring again.

The company has secured its financial future with a 360m rights issue that will help it halve its 1bn debt pile. Shares are trading at eight times 2010 earnings. At this price they are worth tucking away as an each-way bet. Buy.

Cyners..... amazing after todays update investech have notifyed to the market that they reamain with there initial target........... gob smacked myself but here it is freshly in......

Company Rating Target Price Potential Upside/ Downside Contributing Broker

National Express Group Buy

437p target 133.3% Investec

133.3% upside.

broker Buy reco out late yesterday....

National Express Group PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Investec Securities
13-01-10 BUY 116.00 29.93 137.18 35.46

already got them!

SP broken out through ceiling of uptrend channel. Very bullish signal. New upleg on way !!

NEX

Tipped inn Investors Inteligence this morning.....



Portfolio Update

Two long positions performed better than expected. National Express, a position initiated two days ago, broke to the upside (see right). This raises the possibility of a rally to 300p. We gingerly up the stop to 258p.

sp down 10% after IMS.

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Looking rather bullish.

Half Year Results 25 July 2013

NEX looking sexy.

Ex divi wed 4th Sept (3.25p)

Ex-divi wed 30th Apr (6.75p)

StockMarketWire.com
National Express said during the period July 1 to date it has continued its strong progress. Q3 pretax profit was nearly 15% higher than the same period last year. "We are on target to meet our profit and cash expectations for the full year."

The company said it was progressively recovering the one-offs and currency translation impacts experienced in H1 through the delivery of revenue growth, performance improvements and cost efficiencies.

CEO Dean Finch commented:

"We have made good progress this quarter. We have won new contracts, renewed key concessions, and increased revenues in every division. Our profit last quarter was up on the same period in 2013, helping to offset the one-offs of the first half year. Our cash generation continues to be strong and will remain a focus for the business.

"This quarter again demonstrates that our strategy, rooted in excellent operational performance and customer service, is delivering retention and progression in our existing markets and securing expansion in to profitable new business. It is an approach we are determined to build on as we look at other opportunities in the coming months and years."

National Express continued to focus on driving strong cash generation and capital discipline:

· It was on course to deliver full year free cash flow target of £150 million, delivering nearly £500 million between 2012 and 2014;

· It was deploying capital selectively to protect and grow the business, investing in over 250 new buses over the next 12 months in UK Bus;

· The company's core diversified markets limit exposure and provide good growth potential;

· There would be a continued focus on cash generation in the coming years, developing capital light opportunities, reinvesting selectively in growth projects and driving shareholder value. National Express reported rising passenger numbers and revenue in every division this year:

· UK Bus has delivered 4% total revenue growth in the period and 3% year-to-date;

· Revenue is growing in Alsa with the successful roll out of revenue management in Spanish coach operations. Passenger volumes are now growing on all but one of the rail competed corridors and revenue has now recovered to the prior year level, delivering rapid progress;

· UK Coach has continued to build on last year's success, carrying 5% more passengers in the core express network year to date;

· North America has grown its number of routes, on the back of 98% targeted contract retention in the recent bid season;

· UK Rail has grown both revenue and passenger numbers and is well advanced on new franchise mobilisation.

It had also won new contracts and retained key concessions:

· Won a 10-year contract to run bus services in Bahrain, opening up the Middle East region for further growth;

· Retained and grown the company's largest Spanish concession to have come up for renewal so far - a €600 million total revenue contract for regional coach services in the Bilbao metropolitan region for up to 15 years;

· These achievements are built on the important successes earlier in the year, including: the retention of the 15 year, £4 billion Essex Thameside ('c2c') rail franchise; renewal of its largest US Transit contract; retention and significant growth of National Express' Memphis School Bus contract, becoming its largest contract in the US; successfully commissioning its new Moroccan bus franchise in Tangiers.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express has improved its FY pretax profit to £66.5m, from £64.4m a year earlier. Revenue was £1.87bn, from £1.89bn. It proposed a FY dividend of 10.3p a share, up 3% on the year.

CEO Dean Finch said:
"National Express has made significant progress over the past year. Every division is carrying more passengers and has grown revenue. We have successfully retained key existing contracts, recently won another two rail contracts in Germany and this month started operating our Bahrain bus contract.

"I am particularly pleased with our very strong cash performance, which has again exceeded our target.

"This strong performance means we are in an excellent position to continue to exploit new opportunities.

"Our North American business has more than doubled profitability in the last five years and provides us with a strong platform for further growth in the coming years. Coupled with the opportunity for further growth in German Rail and the Middle East, I am optimistic about the future prospects of the business."

Highlights:
· Group revenue increased 2% to £1.87 billion on a constant currency basis; down 1% on a reported basis (2013: £1.89bn)

· Group normalised profit before tax rose 7% to £145.4 million on a constant currency basis; up 1% on a reported basis (2013: £143.7m)

· Statutory Group profit before tax grew by 3% to £66.5 million (2013: £64.4m); up 10% on a constant currency basis

· Group ROCE increased to 12.4% (2013: 11.7%)

· Year-on-year EPS growth of 6% to 22.7 pence (2013: 21.5 pence)

· Free cash flow of £190 million is £40 million ahead of target and higher than last year (2013: £182.8m). Since 2009, National Express has generated £1billion of free cash

· Net debt reduced by over £80 million to £664.3 million (2013: £746.1m)