http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/MarketsAndSectors/Sectors/article/20100512/38c9bec2-5db6-11df-bbd0-00144f2af8e8/Falklands-explorers-fly-again.jsp
Falklands explorers fly again
Created:12 May 2010Written by:Martin Li
There's oil in the Falklands. The success of the Sea Lion exploration well sent shares in Rockhopper Exploration up over six-fold from 37p to 230p in just a few days, confirming the keen investor interest in this faraway drilling campaign.
Sentiment had been dented following the failure of the first well in the North Falkland basin, drilled in February by Desire Petroleum. Such has been the level of investment fervour that shares in all four Falklands explorers tumbled on Desire's drill result, even Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL) and Borders & Southern, which are exploring completely unrelated basins to Desire.
Rockhopper's well encountered 53m of net pay, or oil-bearing reservoirs, spread over several intervals. Crucially, the reservoir quality looks good, which means the oil should flow well. It's hard enough producing oil from such a remote location as the Falklands without also having to work hard stimulating any oil to flow to the surface. In addition, the well has not yet encountered the oil/water contact marking the reservoir boundary, which means the find could be larger than currently indicated.
Rockhopper hasn't yet commented on possible oil volumes although analysts have been busily working through the potential upside. Broker Oriel Securities interpreted Rockhopper's find as potentially larger than the pre-drill resource estimate of 170m barrels. It concludes that while further appraisal drilling will be needed to confirm volumes, such a find, if commercial, could be worth more than 600p a share, which hints at considerable further upside on top of the gains to date.
Attention now switches to the undrilled South Falkland basin, where FOGL and partner BHP Billiton have next use of the shared rig. Prospects in the south are typically much larger than those in the north, but mostly lie in deeper water than the Ocean Guardian can drill. FOGL has one relatively shallow prospect, Toroa, that it will drill with the Ocean Guardian, although it continues to search for a drillship or deepwater rig capable of carrying out the main exploration programme, which FOGL still hopes to begin before the year-end. Drilling of Toroa should start in late May.