http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

cheers GF.

Long & complicated broker note out from Canaccord, but the gist of it here:
"But most importantly, the spin-out of all things non-gold should once and for all brand this company as one of the worlds major pure gold producers and then perhaps it will be accorded the pricing normally attributed to such entities. We suggest a pure gold play with 800,000 to 1 million ounces of production per year will attract the interest of some of the large US gold funds hitherto shy of the diversified resources profile.
Given that at current prices the stock is priced at less than 50% of the embedded value of 30.40/share based on a 5% per annum NPV and spot gold prices (the basis of accepted gold valuations elsewhere in the market particularly in North America) we suggest this spin out of non-gold assets when coupled with delivery of the production potential embedded in the companys gold resources will deliver very considerable upside from current prices."

I expect that the iron ore business going back and forth like a yo-yo hasn't helped much!

Broker note from Canaccord:
"Petropavlovsk is hosting a site visit to its gold and iron operations in Far East Russia scheduled from 6-11th October 2010.

Key issues
We thought it would be useful to re-visit what we believe are the key issues before making the trip in order to provide a reference point for any new information that might arise.

We are lowering our gold production estimate for the second half of this year from 515,000ozs to 450,000ozs with the full 76,000oz difference coming from Q3 production. We understand operations remained without access to the high grade material in either pit until right at the end of the quarter.
This leaves our gold production estimate for the year at 615,000oz, a number that we think is now balanced in terms of risk to the upside and downside but is significantly below the low end of company guidance of 670,000ozs and our previous estimate of 680,000ozs.
Our market-based value for the magnetite resources suggests a market price of US$809 million for ILC Limited pre money and before any discount for pre IPO investors.
Our target price for Petropavlovsk remains 15.50/share, which is after a 50% haircut on our NAV at spot gold prices with a 5% based NPV."

i hold these, but the company really does itself no favours by persistently falling short of its forecasts ..... hardly surprising the share underperforms badly

down again today so presume the site visit is not going too well so far....

Worth a punt at 10 ?

What the hell is going on!

Apparently the Hong Kong listing of the iron ore side of the business is not going too well.

One would have thought that these problems,whatever they may be,would have been IRONED OUT beforehand.

I'd buy sub 10, after all the gold i the ground hasn't gone anywhere, just needs someone who knows how to dig it out...

Broker note from Collins Stewart on the stock:
Is a near 1 million ounce rate in H2 2010 realistic?
Reducing full year guidance to within 5% of c.670koz, after such a weak first half production of 166koz, may still prove insufficient. It requires between 470-500koz of production to be delivered in H2, which is close to an annual run rate of one million ounces. We are not confident of this target, and expect the company to downgrade further before the year end. We forecast a still challenging range of 600koz to 625koz (equating to 590koz attributable production), 14% below the original guidance of 670-760koz.
Aggressive expansion squeezing profitability
Our biggest concern is the impact of increasing tonnage and reducing grade, which we expect will impact costs and profitability over the medium term. The continued expansions in throughput we think are neither optimised nor fully accounted for in consensus projections. Aggressive growth plans have not been delivered in the past, resulting a poor performance in terms of growing ounces per share.
Valuation and Recommendation
We value the business at $2.6bn at an average 1x multiple to NPV, which equates to 875p. If the iron ore assets are included at the implied value following the last fundraise, this lifts the valuation to 1020p. Given the potential for further production downgrades, we think sentiment, after a positive 2009, may continue to waiver in 2010. Sell.

that's a very nasty note - no wonder sp has dumped

I decided to get out after that and it looks to be another bad day for POG today.

it does indeed ..... bit the bullet on half at 1036 (yuk!) but that's now looking quite a good price, so may dump balance and say "fuckit!"

The other side of the coin is that POG already has a lot of bad news priced ,i.e. a very low P.E.
Many analysts are still firmly behind the stock.
Still,there is a limit when it comes to biting bullets!

last comment (sentence) would be good for a politician! ...... chart is now horrid but you are right to say that at a "certain level" the risk/reward is well-weighted in favour of the latter ..... i haven't worked out where that might be - PTH come and do something useful for a change! - and if i should sell all meantime

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900 perhaps? ..... see below

If you start the chart from the last part of 2008,it actually looks quite good!?

that's cheating, and actually not true unless you want to boast that you bought then! ..... currently, the concern is that POG regularly falls short of its targets, and sp has fallen straight back through 200 dma (black) without touching the sides ..... not helping either is that the stock keeps threatening to get into FTSE top tier but has always fallen at the last

i remember a few yrs ago they were bragging about being a 1m oz producer by 2009?... will be luck to do half that this year.

It does not live up to its promises... poor output means this will drift downwards... good one to short