http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

cheers GF.

What the hell is going on!

Apparently the Hong Kong listing of the iron ore side of the business is not going too well.

One would have thought that these problems,whatever they may be,would have been IRONED OUT beforehand.

I'd buy sub 10, after all the gold i the ground hasn't gone anywhere, just needs someone who knows how to dig it out...

Broker note from Collins Stewart on the stock:
Is a near 1 million ounce rate in H2 2010 realistic?
Reducing full year guidance to within 5% of c.670koz, after such a weak first half production of 166koz, may still prove insufficient. It requires between 470-500koz of production to be delivered in H2, which is close to an annual run rate of one million ounces. We are not confident of this target, and expect the company to downgrade further before the year end. We forecast a still challenging range of 600koz to 625koz (equating to 590koz attributable production), 14% below the original guidance of 670-760koz.
Aggressive expansion squeezing profitability
Our biggest concern is the impact of increasing tonnage and reducing grade, which we expect will impact costs and profitability over the medium term. The continued expansions in throughput we think are neither optimised nor fully accounted for in consensus projections. Aggressive growth plans have not been delivered in the past, resulting a poor performance in terms of growing ounces per share.
Valuation and Recommendation
We value the business at $2.6bn at an average 1x multiple to NPV, which equates to 875p. If the iron ore assets are included at the implied value following the last fundraise, this lifts the valuation to 1020p. Given the potential for further production downgrades, we think sentiment, after a positive 2009, may continue to waiver in 2010. Sell.

that's a very nasty note - no wonder sp has dumped

I decided to get out after that and it looks to be another bad day for POG today.

it does indeed ..... bit the bullet on half at 1036 (yuk!) but that's now looking quite a good price, so may dump balance and say "fuckit!"

The other side of the coin is that POG already has a lot of bad news priced ,i.e. a very low P.E.
Many analysts are still firmly behind the stock.
Still,there is a limit when it comes to biting bullets!

last comment (sentence) would be good for a politician! ...... chart is now horrid but you are right to say that at a "certain level" the risk/reward is well-weighted in favour of the latter ..... i haven't worked out where that might be - PTH come and do something useful for a change! - and if i should sell all meantime

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900 perhaps? ..... see below

If you start the chart from the last part of 2008,it actually looks quite good!?

that's cheating, and actually not true unless you want to boast that you bought then! ..... currently, the concern is that POG regularly falls short of its targets, and sp has fallen straight back through 200 dma (black) without touching the sides ..... not helping either is that the stock keeps threatening to get into FTSE top tier but has always fallen at the last

i remember a few yrs ago they were bragging about being a 1m oz producer by 2009?... will be luck to do half that this year.

It does not live up to its promises... poor output means this will drift downwards... good one to short

They certainly must be a candidate,given the almighty fall of 2 years ago (from 1400 to 200.

Hong Kong listing seems to be struggling and at a price far below what was expected. May possibly be delayed.

Now sub 1000p. Maybe your 900p target may not be short of the mark, cynic.

Morning all

POG
Eerly 2010 pog anounced that 2010 would be a transitional yr and that its production would be mainly weighted in the last few months of yr and that the the 1st 6 months would have high costs per oz and that it would = around 35% of its production for the yr, so far this as happened , they have said exactly that , in august itsaid that the production would be 670koz +/- 5%,itas not retracted this as yet, but listen to this even if they do just 600kozs its still producing more than RRS, from now till end of yr they should average 100k oz a month they are now doing monthly updates ,1st being 3 rd Nov, now if they were not confident of doing this they would not do monthly updates . POG is going to get seriosly rerated very shortly.

All the information is on their web site have any of you bothered to go and read the updates. Has roson says they are doing exactly what it says on the tin.

if so, sure makes a change!

Yes,I think many people are aware of these facts.However ,it has been these very inconsistencies that have heped to create this situation.

I suppose too that POG has had its share of bad luck one way or another.
I quite agree, though,that some sort of re rating is on the cards.