http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Not long now to find out who gets Iraq oil fields:

Published December 1, 2009
BAGHDAD - The oil ministry is now making plans to host the Dec. 11-12 oil bidding rounds at its Baghdad headquarters instead of the al-Rashid Hotel in the more secure Green Zone.

The headquarters was the original location slated for the auction, which will see as many as 44 foreign oil companies in a bidding war for 10 oil field projects.

damp squib that was last time too
prob for GPK is different
they have the oil but the baghdad wallahs won't let the kurds export it

From Digital look:
Oil Explorers Target Kurdistan Riches
By Lee Wild, ShareCast Journalist

Oil companies are swarming all over the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, keen to exploit its huge reserves, but political tensions have put a brake on production and look unlikely to be resolved until well into next year.

Research by analysts at Canadian broker Canaccord Adams found the value of shares in public companies active in Kurdistan has increased by $40bn, or 40%, since February.

When new entrants are included, the market cap of companies digging in the region now stands at $200bn. And theyre having some success.

London-listed Heritage Oil, rated a buy at Canaccord with 713p price target, has increased its internal resource estimate for Miran West ranges from 2.3 to 4.2 billion barrels of original oil-in-place, while 500m AIM company Gulf Keystone Petroleum has an external report estimating 1.0 to 5.3 billion barrels at Shaikan.

Elsewhere, Sterling Energy is on course to start drilling at its Sangaw North prospect this month. An independent review has given a best estimate of gross prospective oil resources for the Cretaceous interval of 804 million barrels.

Canaccord believes the region bordering Turkey and Iran provides unique opportunities for exploration companies seeking exposure to large-scale reserves.

They say few areas can match Kurdistans potential, which could represent as much as half the estimated 75 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in Iraq. Thats attracted an increasingly large group of independents who, over the past nine months, have delivered encouraging results from six exploration wells. At least eight more wells are due to be drilled over the next six to nine months.

The traditional majors have given Kurdistan a wide berth, choosing to focus their resources on the southern fields to be awarded by Iraqs central government.

But theres good reason for that. Several significant issues concerning the oil rush in Kurdistan remain outstanding, meaning extra hassle for the big guys that they dont get further south.

Exports from new fields in Kurdistan - Taq Taq and Tawke began in June, but stopped four months later as the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the central government of Iraq failed to agree on a method of direct payment for exports.

Baghdad maintains that the KRG cannot sign contracts without central government approval and continues to ban companies with stakes in Kurdistan from bidding in Iraqi licensing rounds.

Kurdistan is also unable to use the existing export pipeline running from Kirkuk in northern Iraq to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan without Baghdads blessing.

While Turkey has become friendlier towards the KRG recently, it will not risk its relationship with Baghdad by sanctioning a cross-border pipe with the KRG, Canaccord says.

The global oil industry has been waiting for years for passage of the legislation, which includes a law on how to share revenues from oil exports between Iraqs various regions and a law resurrecting the national Iraqi oil company.

It doesnt expect any resolution until the political landscape changes following the federal Iraqi parliamentary elections on 16 January 2010.

But itll take more than a little uncertainty to deter the independent explorers given the potential size of the rewards.

When considering the pros and cons of investing in Iraq, it's worth reading the following RNS from PET:

28 September 2009

Interim Results for the Six Month Period to 30th June 2009


Iraq remains the focus of Petrel. The country has the best natural resources
play worldwide, but it is a complicated place to do business. No one has more
recent practical experience or understands the potential and challenges of the
country better than Petrel. The position of the Petrel/Makman contract on the
Subba and Luhais oilfield development has not changed in recent months. There is
ongoing contact between the partners, but agreements accepted by Petrel are not
being implemented. There is a solution to this problem. We will continue to talk
to the parties involved and to new parties who believe that they can broker a
settlement. In the meantime, development at Subba and Luhais is at a standstill,
while nothing is happening on our other interests; Block 6 and Merjan.
Meanwhile, progress is being made in Jordan, where protracted farm out
discussions continue. Our technical and geological analysis has been accepted by
the potential partner. The challenging capital market conditions of the past
twelve months have made capital raising difficult for the partner.


Let me once again try to explain the current situation in Iraq.


Iraqi oil output has fallen since 1990. But State producing companies have done
well to stabilise output at c. 2.5 million barrels per day. While well below
pre-2003 levels, this has to be seen in terms of decades of strife, sanctions
and under-investment.


Security continues to improve. Gradual withdrawal of international forces helps
re-establish Iraqi sovereignty and legitimacy. Regional tensions have reduced
with the new US Administration. Neighbours are now working more closely with the
Iraqi authorities.


As of September 2009, no one is sure how the laws, contracts and general
government will evolve. The understandable preference of the Iraqi authorities
is to drive the best bargain for their citizens. For historical reasons, there
is public suspicion of the super-major oil companies. Hence, the attempts to
develop the oil industry by means of service contracts. Such an approach is
normal in the region, but not suitable for a country that has Iraq's recent
history.


The Oil Ministry has been active. Several deals have been announced, but none
have gone smoothly. In the recent bid round, the lowest bids were from emerging
National Oil Companies. But these enterprises do not have the technology and
have not demonstrated the performance that Iraq rightly demands and needs.


The bid round process was off to a shaky start this June when the bids deviated
widely from Ministry expectations. Only a BP-led consortium concluded a deal,
and it is unlikely that this will be implemented to the satisfaction of both
parties. Service contracts do not align the interests of the players or
guarantee access to the best technology to maximise recovery from reservoirs.


The recent bid round did provide valuable information. The majors submitted bids
based on increased production. The targets proposed by the majors were
impressive. The BP consortium expected to increase output by nearly 2 million
barrels daily on the Rumaila field alone - effectively doubling Iraqi exports
through just one project! This confirms Petrel's long held belief that Iraqi oil
potential is world class, but it needs modern technology, international capital
and skilled management to unlock the potential. Persuading the Iraqi authorities
that 80% of a big cake is better than 95% of a smaller cake is the challenge.
The forthcoming second round will face similar difficulties to the first. Iraq
remains a challenging location. Companies will only invest when returns are
adequate.


The current legal situation is further complicated by attempts of regional
authorities in Iraq to extend their influence into areas properly belonging to
the central Government. This exacerbates nationalism and complicates matters.
Attempting to bypass the legitimate sovereign authorities is not a sensible or
ethical way to invest. This leads to political sensitivities that impede the
cutting of pragmatic deals that would rapidly boost production.


We expect most issues to clarify in the coming months. Divisions among the
policy-making parties probably require democratic endorsement in the upcoming
elections in January.


It remains unclear how these negotiations will play out.

the last 3 sentences almost contradict each other.
eventually, though goodness knows how far into the future that will be, baghdad and the kurdistanis will reach some sort of agreement to allow the export of the oil from that region.
it is patently obvious to anyone with a gram of brain and common sense that some sort of compromise is in all parties very best interests and should be struck at the earliest opportunity.
however, if you live in the expectation that that sort of logic from ********** (can't think of a non-inflammatory way of writing that!) will even cross their minds let alone prevail, then you must live in cloud-cuckoo land!

cynic don't forget the sunni comeback/backlash.

and yet there is almost no religious difference at all between sunni and shia and they even use the same mosques (i think).

anyway, i'm sort of stuck with these shares now, so i guess i'll just sit it out

Haven't seen RF lately... has he jumped ship again and ended up on a tramp steamer to Dubia..

"Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. today announces that, as informed by the Operator to the Ministry of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, the Bijeel-1 well was spudded on Friday 11th December 2009 in the Akri Bijeel block. Gulf Keystone Petroleum International holds a 20 per cent working interest in the production sharing contract ("PSC"). The block is operated by Kalegran Ltd. (80%) a subsidiary of MOL.

The Bijeel-1 well will target prospective intervals in the Cretaceous and the Jurassic. The well is the first exploration well to be drilled on the Akri Bijeel block which is adjacent to the Shaikan block. The well is planned to a target depth (TD) of approximately 4,300 metres and is forecast to take approximately four to five months to complete."

Been busy with things...catching up with rns's now...

Placing rumours at 90p levels.

http://www.sharescity.com/2009/12/weekend-newspaper-stocks-shares-tips.html

.

Business Financial Newswire
"Gulf Keystone Petroleum has drawn down 1,560,000 of its 30m standby equity distribution agreement with YA Global Master SPV announced on 7 May.

The funds will be used to develop Gulf Keystone's projects in Kurdistan.

This is the fifth draw down under the SEDA and brings the total to 13,060,000.

Under the terms of the SEDA, the company has allotted 1,717,269 new shares to YA at 90.84p per share. "

14 January 2010




Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)

("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")




Significantly Increased Oil in Place Numbers for Shaikan Discovery







Shaikan-1 has been independently evaluated by Dynamic Global Advisors ("DGA"). This final evaluation report reviewed the data from the Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic formations of Shaikan-1 tested to a depth of 2,950 meters and was carried out in accordance with the Petroleum Resources Management System ("PRMS") guidelines, using SPE definitions.




Key findings:

The range of oil in-place for the Shaikan structure has been increased to a gross 1.9 (P90) to 7.4 (P10) billion barrels of oil, with a mean of 4.2 billion barrels of oil in place. Previous estimates were 1.0 (P90) and 5.0 (P10). In addition, there is upside potential (P1) up to a total of 13 billion barrels of oil in place.

There are also prospective resources below 2,950 meters (lower Triassic and Permian). The DGA Executive Summary states that: "Potential resources for these deeper formations are ~ 1 to 5 BBO and 6 to 14 TCF, which is in addition to the P1 upside estimate of 13 BBO".


In addition the DGA Executive Summary confirms that: "This discovery greatly reduces the geologic risks in the Sheikh Adi, Akri Bijeel and the Ber Bahr blocks, Gulf Keystone's adjacent opportunities. The Shaikan discovery proves the presence of hydrocarbon source and migration in the area.

The Shaikan-1 well has discovered a significant resource of oil and gas in the Cretaceous Sarmord, Jurassic Barsarin, Sargelu, Alan, Mus, Butmah, Baluti and Triassic Kurre Chine formations



Shaikan Oil-in-place summary








P90





P10





Mean
Potential

Oil in Place

Volume

Drilled (above 2950)

(million barrels)



1,891



7,422



4,184



13,000 (P1)

Additional prospective resources (lower Triassic and Permian

(million barrels)








1,000 to 5,000

Total

(million barrels)
1,891
7,422
4,184
14,000 to 18,000





Todd Kozel, Executive Chairman of Gulf Keystone, commented:




"This report independently corroborates the world class quality of the discoveries and provides invaluable data for our next test wells appraising these finds. We are delighted with the results of the final DGA report evaluating Shaikan-1 and we look forward to realizing as much of the upside potential of this discovery as possible."




A copy of the final report is available on the Company's website at www.gulfkeystone.com




Notes:

DGA Report

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/dgafinaldiscoveryreportshaikan-1130110.pdf

RNS Number : 5003F
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd
14 January 2010



Not for release, publication or distribution in or into jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom and Bermuda where to do so would constitute a contravention of the relevant laws of such jurisdiction





14 January 2010




Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd.

("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")




Investor Presentation




Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (AIM: GKP), an independent oil and gas exploration company with interests in Kurdistan and Algeria announces that a copy of the Macquarie Explorers Conference Presentation to be given on Thursday 14 January 2010 will be made available on the Company's website (www.gulfkeystone.com) from 10.30 am.

From FT today:
"The OOIP range for the Shaikan structure is substantially increased. P90-P10 range goes from 1.0-5.0 bn bbls to 1.9-7.4bn bbls with Pmean standing at 4.2 bn bbls. This evaluation covers data from the Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic and was performed by Dynamic Global Advisors. Expect the share price to soar this morning. However, we would caution investors regarding upcoming dilution. Cash on hand stands at $25m, and financial requirement for the remainder of 2009 is estimated at $16m. However, $15.6m of cash is restricted in Algeria, so there appears to be a funding shortfall for year to come. Bottom line: if you want to play the Kurdistan drill bit, BUY HOIL for the Miran West-2 and Miran East-1. Use GKP as a source fund. SELL GKP"

EDIT: Above from FT/Alphaville blog. Apologies, although I think in this case it was written by a FT journalist who watches the small oil exploration Co's. I only post journalist or broker notes from the FT site, not comments from the public.

Harry .... please make clear to others that FT = FTBB rather than the pink paper .... or at least i assume your note is from the BB

GKP is a sell with dilution taking place

Just to add to the confusion I found this: 14-Jan-10 Fox-Davies Capital, Buy 100.75p 200.00p - Reiteration.