.

on the bounce this afternoon, plenty rumours

Ignis has been buying short of 5M


Ignis Investment Services Limited - BOR HOLDINGS
28.05.12.....29,540,825.00.....6.10%
18.07.12.....34,713,117.00.....7.17%

18.07.12
Mark Holden, manager of the Ignis UK Focus fund, explains why he is buying more shares in Borders & Southern Petroleum .........


Analysts have downgraded their ratings on the stock with Merchant Securities saying the technical difficulties encountered by Borders ‘decreases the attractiveness of the South Falkland Island Basin because it increases exploration risks and developmental costs,

Holden, who runs a high risk portfolio with just 20 stocks, told Citywire this was 'rubbish'. He said the company was awaiting the results from test drilling in the nearby Darwin oil field. When these are published at the end of August they could transform the valuation of the company. Ironically, he said, the problems of high pressure that hindered the Stebbing well were a sign of the high level of hydrocarbons in the region. Morever, the company's discovery of a 'gas condensate' raised the chances that oil would eventually be found. He said he had bought more shares this week.

The bounce is on this morning, on steady movement up

Numis note :
"After a two well programme in the South Falkland Basin, Borders & Southern has managed to de-risk a Lower Cretaceous gas condensate play that has the potential to contain several tcf of gas and potentially significant volumes of condensate. We believe that the thick, porous reservoir discovered at Darwin suggests the potential for a highly productive sand section. In our view, geological risks at Darwin have been largely eliminated but commercial risks remain.
In this note, we have taken the opportunity to revisit valuation and our investment recommendation. Without further data on the liquids yield at Darwin it is hard to ascribe a precise value (lab results expected in six weeks time). Nevertheless, we know that the condensate content of the recovered gas is greater than zero (see sample picture in note) and lower than that of a volatile oil.
We make the assumption that OGR lies within a standard range for a gas condensate – 20stb/mmscf to 300stb/mmscf. Our analysis suggests that an OGR of at least 85stb/mmscf is required for economic breakeven (NPV10), and 120stb/mmscf is required for a 20% IRR. Given the uncertainty over OGR we have assumed that there is a roughly equal chance of OGR being above or below this figure. Using a normal probability distribution based around a mean OGR of 100stb/mmscf (standard deviation 55stb/mmscfd) we have looked at the expected monetary value of Darwin using a range of outcomes. We get to an expected value of 101p/share which we estimate could be worth around half this amount or 50.5p/share net to Borders and Southern after a farm-down."

Rig is now underway, moved about 50km over night in the direction of Loligo.


http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=308243000&centerx=-58.13182&centery=-53.6912&zoom=10&type_color=9


The fun now begins for FOGL..............

lol

Looks like at the meeting in Stanley that it could be Darwin might be a "stand alone" development ?

Suggests the GOR might be good.


http://www.penguin-news.com/index.php/the-paper


Penguin News Vol 24 No 9

Thursday, 02 August 2012
Argentine cemetery vandalised

Mixed response to 'expensive' C&W mobile data

Students score higher than English average

Darwin well could 'stand alone'

Olympic spirit and Going for Gold

Some big numbers in the Penguin News write up today :

http://www.penguin-news.com

"..............Fluid analysis results from Darwin well (100 miles south east of
the Falklands) are expected near the end of August when the company
will be able to characterise the reservoir fluids and, “any nasties,”
that might impact on the programme, said Mr Obee.

He said the gas condensate should be simple to produce but as yet they
had only an estimate of recoverable reserves. This is thought to
be somewhere between 300 million and 760 million barrels.
He said near a market this would be highly valuable but, “as we are here it is more of a challenge,” adding, however, it was possible Darwin could be a ‘stand
alone’ prospect or other wells nearby might be tied in with it................"

A tremendous rise in the stock on loan of BOR in the past weeks. Hopefully that is mostly shorters and hopefully the GOR figures are good and they will get toasted when Darwin news comes out.

Going to be interesting.



.

http://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4429223/Broker-News-Views.html


.........Goldman Sachs downgrades Genel Energy from buy to neutral.

Goldman Sachs downgrades Borders & Southern Petroleum from buy to neutral.

Goldman Sachs downgrades Afren from buy to neutral.............

Up yesterday on over 5 million shares volume. Today over 7 million shares volume so far.

I have no holding in BOR, but good news from BOR's Darwin samples will give sentiment a positive boost thats for sure............... so good for FOGL if there is good news.

Down but not out yet...

http://www.sparkstrader.com/advfn-blog-borders-and-southern-petroleum-bor

.

Darwin sample results, quite good !!!

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201208231330026716K

.

Darwin Fluid Analysis

Borders & Southern (AIM: BOR) is pleased to announce the results of the Darwin fluid sample analysis. As previously reported, well 61/17-1 encountered a good quality sandstone reservoir comprising 67.8m of net pay with an average porosity of 22%. The gas condensate reservoir was sampled at four separate levels with 3 fluid samples taken at each level.

The initial condensate yield from the Darwin gas samples, as measured in a laboratory separator test, varies from 123 to 140 stb/MMscf. The API gravity of the condensate is 46 to 49 degrees. Based on the condensate yield and ongoing reservoir modelling, the Company estimates the recoverable volume of condensate to be 130 to 250 million barrels with a mid case of 190 million barrels.

Following these positive laboratory results, the Board will approve a work programme that includes appraisal drilling of the Darwin discovery. Additional wells are necessary to confirm the initial resource estimates and establish a commercial development. In the coming months, activity will focus on a comprehensive technical evaluation of all the data collected from well 61/17-1 and a review of potential development concepts along with project economics.

These results have exciting implications for the Company's prospect and lead inventory and particularly for those prospects in the Lower Cretaceous play fairway to the south of the Falkland Islands. Borders & Southern's prospect inventory contains further relatively low risk structural prospects of a similar size to Darwin along with stratigraphically trapped fans of slightly higher risk but larger scale. Some of these prospects will be targeted in the next drilling phase with the objective of adding to the discovered resources of Darwin and building a core development area.

Discussions with a seismic contractor regarding the acquisition of additional 3D seismic are in progress and we plan to have a vessel in the Falklands at the start of 2013 to commence the survey. This survey will focus on similar prospects to Darwin currently outside our existing 3D area. Whilst the final costs of the 2012 drilling programme will not be fully known until after the demobilisation of the rig later in the year, the Company can state that it is fully funded for the 3D seismic acquisition and processing, the reprocessing of the Company's 2007 3D seismic data and all the technical studies that need to be undertaken on the samples collected from the two wells.

Given the encouraging results from the Darwin well, the Company will start planning the next drilling programme, which is likely to include both exploration and appraisal wells. The timing of drilling will be dependent on rig availability, but realistically this will not occur before 2014. The Company is currently exploring the best way to fund the next phase of the programme, including the possibility of now bringing in partners.

Commercial sized discovery, mid case 190 million recoverable barrels.

Well done BOR.

Indeed very good reading, gravity readings very encouraging.

ealier profit taking punters are now buying is back as new drilling is plan for 2013/2014


Borders & Southern plans new drilling after Darwin analysis

South Falkland Basin-focused Borders & Southern Petroleum will start planning its next drilling programme following encouraging results from the Darwin well.

The company previously reported that well 61/17-1 had encountered a good quality sandstone reservoir comprising 67.8m of net pay with an average porosity of 22%.

The gas condensate reservoir was sampled at four separate levels with three fluid samples taken at each level. The initial condensate yield from the Darwin gas samples, as measured in a laboratory separator test, varies from 123 to 140 stb/MMscf.

The API gravity of the condensate is 46 to 49 degrees.

Based on the condensate yield and ongoing reservoir modelling, the company estimates the recoverable volume of condensate to be 130 to 250 million barrels with a mid case of 190 million barrels.

The company says that following these positive laboratory results, the board will approve a work programme that includes appraisal drilling of the Darwin discovery.

Additional wells are necessary to confirm the initial resource estimates and establish a commercial development.

In the coming months, activity will focus on a comprehensive technical evaluation of all the data collected from well 61/17-1 and a review of potential development concepts along with project economics.

Awful lot of shorts to be closed....... LOL :)

Stock on loan chart for BOR below

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL6E8JNGFM20120823?pageNumber=1

UPDATE 1-Borders find boosts Falklands oil prospects

Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:28pm GMT


LONDON Aug 23 (Reuters) - British oil explorer Borders & Southern reported positive results from the latest tests at its well off the coast of the disputed Falkland islands, increasing the possibility of a second commercial oil and gas discovery there.

Borders is leading efforts to find oil off the south coast of the remote islands. Exploration in the region by British companies has inflamed tension with Argentina, which claims sovereignty over the islands it knows as the Malvinas, losing a war to Britain over them in 1982.

The explorer said on Thursday that the initial yield from gas condensate samples taken at its well in the South Falkland basin varied from 123 to 140 standard barrels per million cubic feet, more than what analysts said was needed for the find to have commercial potential.

Gas condensate is a liquid which often trades at a premium to crude oil.

"It looks good. It definitely looks good...What (the numbers) mean is that essentially this is a commercial discovery, the first in the South Falkland basin," said Numis analyst Sanjeev Bahl.

"There's potentially more adjacent discoveries to be made, because it's not going to be the only large condensate discovery in the South Falkland basin," he added.

Britain's Rockhopper found oil north of the islands in 2010.

Borders chalked up an initial success in April, when it found gas condensate at its first well, but disappointed with a dry well last month.