.

Pro
I find that last post of yours very rich coming from you...............pot and kettle spring to mind

The rumours are not trouble on the rig. It appears some minor issue occurred with the BOP unit and a replacement part was sent out on Thu 23rd last week. End of.

At most a weeks delay to drilling and given the original 45 day plan will have had at least a week built in for delays - its all very trivial. Results in 2 to 3 weeks.

As for the target, with strong avo response and flat spots - all very good DHI's - the CoS is actually very high - but yes, the official CoS is 1 in 4 chance. You will see what I mean when I say "shooting fish in a barrel in the South Falklands" soon enough...... and I will re-quote this post to you.

i merely observed as to why BOR sp remains less than excited .... frankly, if BOR do fluke it, then i'll be delighted as that will impact RKH far more than the relatively small amount i shall lose on BOR short, assuming i'm still holding (BOR) when the result comes in

Pro's can't be getting a fee on this one.,.

WDIC .... as it stands, my BOR short remains gently in the money

Well, its day 30 now of the drill, out of a 45 day program which includes testing and P&A.

If rumours are to be believed they lost a week whilst a component was replaced on the BOP, which puts it at day 23 actual.

You would expect perhaps 9 days of the 45 to be for testing, sampling and P&A, so day 36 would be your TD date.

So, if they did lose a week we are 13 days from potential news.

If they did not lose a week we are 6 days from potential news.

Got to watch BOR volume from next week, from 5th of March, any leaks of good or bad news should see rampant buying or rampant selling either next week or the week after.

3 million volume or over on a single day will be worth looking into.............

Going to be fun now.

Yep, sure will. Just a case then of wishing we had bought more if they hit, or wishing we had sold earlier if they don't!

Looking quite strong on the bid side, could be the run up through 80p is underway now.

Buying is strong on BOR and FOGL, not looking like PI's, they seem to be the sells.

Possibly now, as its getting in target range of BOR result, a few II's opening up long CFD positions - which should lead to gradual teasing up of BOR and FOGL now, fingers crossed.

With the sudden increase in buying yesterday I am intrigued.

Normally the rig stays within a 5M zone of the drill site, but yesterday she went off for a circuit around the site, perfect square, twice, now she is back on the drill site and within the 5M zone.

Looks like the rig did re-entry yesterday and is now drilling ahead again, if you zoom in on the link.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=308243000¢erx=-57.75184¢ery=-51.57723&zoom=10&type_color=9

So the buying of yesterday could be an indication as the map shows, drilling ahead again after the BOP pipe issue.

That would mean 2 weeks lost due to one of the pipes being broken on the BOP.

16th Feb to 29th Feb downtime.

13 days of no drilling.

Taking the 45 day schedule and saying day 36 should be TD ahead of testing and then P&A and we are now at day 31.

If 13 days lost we are looking at being on day 18 real time. That would mean 18 more days to go or a target for TD of circa 19th March.

Therefore volume increases should be watched out for from Monday 12th March onwards IMO.

Anything over 3M volume on BOR will be a leak IMV.

What figures does anyone have for risked and unrisked values for Darwin ?

Not that risked figures mean anything now with the drill bit in action.


Mine are :

Darwin : RISKED = 162 pence per share

Darwin : UNRISKED = 1103 pence (11 pounds) per share

.

whatever MrP may think, the market clearly has severe reservations - which of course is not to say that he is wrong

I am actually surprised at the lack of research people have not been doing.

There are very very good DHI's at Darwin, including an extended flat spot, gas chimneys and strong avo response. They also have 3D which means they can target the fat portion of the potential sands to ensure maximum pay, if there is any pay.

I will be surprised if Darwin has no oil or gas.

no doubt there are many experts and analysts who have indeed thorough homework but clearly reach different conclusions from you

And some just read the threads but don't bother posting their thoughts and research. I'm long on both BOR and FOGL for the record and have been for some time. Both futures in the money with trailing stop losses.

Highly risky as in the event of a hydrocarbon no show : you will be stopped out way down.....I'm in the shares so can wait for the next spud.....but spreads...ouch !....

You pay your money and take the risk, trading equities or spreads without a stop is risky.

Huge difference.....in this case....shares you can stay put for ages....not with spreads...

Thats rubbish, you can quite easily roll a future over from month to month, as long as you have funds to cover any loss plus your margin..

You are on the daily rollover or more longterm....believe me and I pray that you are right on this because I have the shares but with a spread of any kind you are taking a big, big, risk....so am I but not quite so big....