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An extract of Tipping Tom's recent OB presentation.

The outlook for oil, as said by Goldman Sachs and others, well TT is in agreement too. Mid-East problems ? Interesting, certainly I have no exposure to anything in the Middle East, but anyone who has could suffer big time if things heat up, while oilers focussed on other area's might surge, those with their hand in the ME might be going down fast.

As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times" - and anyone with lots of exposure to black gold has been and still is having very interesting times !! :)

http://www.mediafire.com/?r6bu3l17crtndul

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The pilot section confirmed 113ft oil column, some 40ft thicker than the 73ft prognosis, in a high quality Dornoch reservoir and confirmed the oil water contact at 3729ft total vertical depth (on prognosis). The oil column has 100% net to gross (compared to previous average of 88%). Management believes that this height of oil column confirms that an upside structure is present in the eastern half of the reservoir, significantly increasing the volume of oil in place.

We also know the reservoir quality is above "upper expectations".

So if we take high case 166 million barrels and add on Prospect A (East) at 72 million barrels we get now 238 million barrels.

However, that is on prognosis, we now know there is 50% upside from reservoir thickness and 10% upside on gross to net pay.

So 166 x 1.6 = 265 MMBO from Bentley main and 72 x 1.6 = 115 MMBO from Bentley East.


I would guess that we are looking potentially at therefore 350 million barrels or more from Bentley based on all the new information that is available.

Put 350 million into your calculations of potential value and the results are quite staggering with crude oil now at 90 US$ a barrel, and taking into account the tax incentives from the UK government given for those who choose to develop heavy oil.

Even if RPS take their normal conservative view, it should now come up with over 250 million barrels IMO.

January and February are going to be Xciting months.

FFS stop ramping and ramping and ramping with nothing to support same other than (im)pure hypothesis

Dealing with facts cynic, something you fail to do time after time after time.

The stock market is about speculation on the future, if you do not hypothesis and speculate you are just a parasite trader buying and selling all the time with no clue how to make the big money.

This is why I was buying this at 20p when YOU were saying DO NOT BUY.

And why I am still holding now, without selling, while you have brought and sold many times making small profits.

Get over yourself cynic.... you are embarrassing yourself even more.

bullshit ..... virtually everything you write is based on hypothesis, which you clearly cannot differentiate from fact ...... and you have no idea what profits i have put in the bank (you = none = paper profit only) but first bought at 47 and then 81 which is just dandy

at least mitzy's garbage has the saving grace of being very brief

Richard. He can't help himself, he was born to ramp. But I guess posters like DD5 think it's all wonderful stuff,

incidentally, a little bird tells me that our ramper in chief's average purchase of stock is 500, it's quite easy to sit on profits or losses for a long time at that level.

Not quite the big time investor he likes to portray!

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Lol, thought I was on the squelchy step.

Poor old cynic, must be embarrassed by screaming at people not to buy this at 20p and 30p and 40p levels...... :)

LOL

There are leaders, first in, lowest prices, big profits.

Then there are the parasites, who jump on the back of others and cause a nasty rash. Guess who you could call a "nasty rash" ? ;)

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz ..... more dull somewhat personal abuse ..... shame about the lack of wit too ... bring back clubbie!

Directors have been holding back the share price by selling some shares,coudnt undertand why the other day when so many buys and the price not moving........

I sold at 407p and thought I was making a mistake then. Looking to get back in at 320-330p.

i'ld be surprised to see sp drift back that far, even if no news for several weeks

How far do u think it will drift back, cynic?

i really don't know ..... for sure there will be a good number of stale bulls who will bank some very juicy profits, but i don't see any underlying reason for a further significant fall - but then markets re not logical

With weather issues currently, work will anticipatory be delayed and sp will go to 320-330p

Not especially good news, Director sells will always send a negative message to the Market and considering the thin volumes at this time of year 3 million additional shares will hold back the SP, at least for a little while.

The Directors must have also taken into consideration the fact that additional funding is certainly required to take XEL forward and the liklihood of a debt / equity solution to do so. I am expecting news of a fund raising very soon and the directors must have known selling shares would depress the SP and affect the price at which funds could be raised.

We should also remember that the BoD have steered XEL brilliantly and they deserve rewards for doing so, additionally the times at which shares can be sold is fairly limited.

Gaps on Candlestick charts always cause concern; certainly they are not always filled (runaway gaps are not - but you don't know that for a while) and XEL's sits at 320p. If the retracement continues, that is where I see it stopping.

It is worth bearing in mind that nothing has changed, unless the BoD know something we do not.

Taking all of the above into account, I have closed all of my SB positions and banked the profits. I seem to be making a habit of missing out on greater profits with exactly the same thing happening with AVN recently.

Finally well done to Hlyeo on choosing the right time to buy and sell, we have our differences, but you couldn't have played it any better.

Merry Christmas to all...
:)

what a tiresome finish to christmas run up, but hey ho, these things never go in straight lines and shall just sit out the blip - or at least i trust that is all it will prove to be

agree with you cynic defo a blip I used this a buying opportunity to add 50% to already overweight holidings - my share for 2011! DYOR... Merry Christmas to all...