OK so you thought the title of the other thread was out of date BUT unfortunately there is no way to edit thread titles.

So here is a new title

This one has got the charts at the top again & has a link to the old one.
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=5021

It's good to read OXB is starting new trials, but we must not get too excited, these can go on for years and there is always "risk" they might not deliver...... So, it's good news - but not what we need this year.

Drifting down again,when will it reach the bottom?

I was very happy to buy a few at 8.5 pence a few years ago (now sold) - that level is unlikely again, unless there is some hitch with Trials - always a risk, although we might like to ignore it. I'm not buying right now as every penny is important at such prices and I don't think the Market generally is anywhere near the bottom.

US investigators qre looking into the deals perpetuated by sub-prime mortgage brokers (in the US), this may be good news - although horse-bolting and stable door springs to mind. We cannot know where this will lead and I suspect the Draught will be felt here and could depress our Markets, even those in Bio/Pharma - that is why OXB is falling right now.IMHO.

Is there any "reason" for OXB's fall, other than general woes - still, there is no point in buying today if it's cheaper tomorrow. Other Pharmas have fallen also so it's not aimed at this one only....unless you know what?

Oh dear!
A writer this weekend needs to fill their column and we see 4p added to the sp based on - er, rumour regurgitated - that Sanofi is about to pay good money to buy OXB - well, if that was their intention, they'd have struck The Deal way back and savved themselves a wad of cash - although ( as Now) they'd have to wait a couple of years to know if their hunch paid off!
-and whoever paid out the money might (?) never work again Doh!

This rise is no more than "maybe" - unless OXB has issued an RNS - but I doubt AK would sell now, anyway - for IF the Trials come good (end 2008?), then the value will be higher ( provided they secure a US partner) and Sanofi is quite happy having the Euro-zone . . . . . with considerably less money at risk.

Until these Trials are concluded and documents signed - OXB is "probably priced right" and beyond 2008, I hope we shall see long-term strength, but in these Markets it is likley to fall back since this latest rise is no more that Weekend Writing - IMHO.
If this is the case then, expect the sp to drift back - don't pay too much!

What no-one seems to understand is "why" Big Pharma doesn't buy all these small-fry ( inc OXB and several others)......simple....it's because they have layers of Managers working their life on a specific product and they all guard their positions - just where does a new "maybe product" fit-in? Are you going to give it to a Junior, so they sinik or swim depending on the Trial outcome? Grief, nuce if it 's Good - but who would risk their career should it turn Bad (and 90% drugs fail).
OR
Do you give it to a big-player on the top floor - and will they put any effort into the product - or will they see this as a side-line that is draining resources from their income?
These are the reasons a Big Pharma doesn't want to take the risky part of development - indeedd most of their "Research Spend" is trying to avoid losing to Generic Makers, always a threat to slaries today....let alone ten years down the line ( OXB has been this long!).

Hangon having said all that maybe just sometimes where there is smoke there is fire. OXB has drifted down because of the protracted trial period it is likely Sanofi know how well or otherwise these trials are proceeding.

Thanks Halifax, but NO!
Patient-Trials are 'blind' . . . . . sometimes "double blind"
- otherwise it is too easy to adjust them, leading to the risk of fraud - Only when the trial is finished will any sense be made of the results . . . but I don't think Sanofi is only interested in this Trial - rather it's a long-term partnership adding value to their existing research.

The only smoke was in the Writer's eyes ( the weekend article), and I suggest this is nothing but old-rumour - and very nice for MM's - for any churning of stocks is profitable - - - - - - but any Bid is the wrong-side of the Trial results (late 2008? - maybe into 2009), as explained - and 50p is way too high "now".

No Pharma can do "due dillegence" when factor-80% of the value of the business hangs in the balance. If the Trial fails- the sp will bomb, maybe 5p, - there is about 2p as cash.....and an awful lot of shares in issue!

Now, a 50p Bid? . . . it makes no sense, IMHO.
(Buys are only maginally higher than Sells, mid-day today)

Huge trade @ 22.5p over 19m shares or 4.3m deal.

Any ideas??

Does this transaction mean OXB is now in play? Who kew it was going to happen?

Now looking interesting

STOCKWATCH Oxford Biomedica up on bid speculation; Evo reiterates 'buy'

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Shares in Oxford Biomedica PLC jumped in
midmorning deals following reports in the Mail on Sunday speculating on hopes of
a bid for the company by French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi-Aventis, with
Evolution securities reiterating its 'buy' stance.
At 11.05 am, Shares in Oxford Biomedica were up 4 at 22-3/4, while the FTSE
small cap index was down 3.4 at 3136.7.
The Mail on Sunday reported that City sources believe a deal to be imminent,
with Oxford Biomedica Chief executive Alan Kingsman said to be holding out for
an offer above 50 pence a share.
The report noted Sanofi's licensing deal signed last year with Oxford for
its TroVax drug, saying it could cost up to 386 mln stg if the drug is as
successful as some analysts are to be believed.
The Mail on Sunday continued saying that even at 50 pence per share, buying
Oxford Biomedica would cost Sanofi less than its potential costs under the
TroVax licensing deal.
In a note to clients published this morning, Evolution Securities said
Oxford Biomedica has been a conspicuous casualty of the 'flight from risk' seen
in financial markets over the past six months.
The broker added the company has a solid licensing deal with a quality
partner in Sanofi for its lead product TroVax which looks to underpin a target
price well above the current market price of the stock.
In conclusion, Evolution Securities said, in its view the share price fall
over the past 5-6 months has been excessive and leaves the company vulnerable to
speculative action, therefore reiterating its 'buy' stance and target price of
70 pence.

French Sanofi-Aventis Shares Up On Possible Bid for UK Oxford BioMedica
11 February 2008
French News Digest

The shares of French pharmaceuticals group Sanofi-Aventis SA surged by 5.88 pct to 54 euro ($78.33) on Euronext Paris at 1200 local time on February 11, 2008 following an announcement of a possible takeover bid for UK biotechnology firm Oxford BioMedica.

However, a source close to the French company said that Sanofi-Aventis' takeover intention is not imminent.

The two companies have signed a global licensing agreement in March 2007 to jointly develop and market Oxford BioMedicas lead cancer immunotherapy Trovax.

Thanks to that collaboration the two companies are frequently in talks so there is a 'never say never' situation, the source added.

According to a publication of UK daily Mail, Oxford BioMedica's CEO Alan Kingsman was holding out for an offer above 0.5 British pounds ($0.97/0.67 euro) per share.

Under the licensing agreement between the two firms, Sanofi-Aventis had to pay its UK partner an initial sum of 29 mln euro ($42.07 mln) and further 19 mln euro ($27.56 mln) upon finalisation of the different stages of the vaccine's development. The deal also involves other payments which could trigger the total sum to 518 mln euro ($751.41 mln) until the registering of the product. That value is said to be three times higher than the market capitalisation for Oxford BioMedica. Thus, the possible takeover would not be a problem for Sanofi-Aventis, La Tribune stated.

Sanofi-Aventis reiterated several times in the last months its intention to expand in the biotechnology sector.

www.latribune.fr

Source: La Tribune (MI/NH/MI)

Still no RNS!
If AK was "holding-out" for above 50p then there would have been an RNS last week about a potential Bid -
OXB is pretty straight with news - and there is a meeting with the City quite soon - Therefore, having a Bid in the background is hardly likely to make the City buy-in, just in case they are accused of "insider dealing" - particularly as there was no RNS . . .

The "French" reported rumour looks equally opportune - as I suspect the equivalent Regulations will apply there - why not, for a Major French Company?


Wow! The market is so easily excited, however. Anyone that bought last week is looking at maybe 20% profit - not bad for nothing more than words, eh?
- The Buys and Sells today are pretty close - - - which is a sign some are selling into strength. They "must" have bought at sub 20p, making 100,000 x 3p - that's 3 Grand, not bad for liquid hunch.

The possible movement is aligning the City ( that's Our Pensions), to pay more - - maybe 30% above the price last-week . . . and that would be sad . . . for whilst it isn't their money - it is paying too much - - - at least until the Trials are successful - which we hope they will be. After that, there will some time before the treatment becomes accepted and available - maybe 2010 . . . who knows?

Hangon be happy if you are a shareholder, if you are a shorter go and cry in your beer!!

Halifax, sorry I should have said - just because I know, I suppose I left off . . . . OXB is a significant holding of mine and the sp today is about my average. I have no axe to grind, other than it irritates me ( whatever the stock) that unsubstantiated rumours are pushing stocks, only for them to be dashed later.
( or vice verse)
Of course it's possible there will be an OXB-Bid!
- But true for every company. However, my reason for dismissing this one is that we have nearly 9+months to run before the results are expected and "due dilligence" can only be done when this "major issue" is known. Sure, Sanofi sp has risen 5% (so the rumours say!) but then OXB is up 25% - on volumes that are pretty close to 1:1 (Buys to Sells) - just where is the RNS?

It is reported there is a rumour - well, well. well.

If there is a Bid and If it's anywhere near 50p - - - then I shall be v.happy - but I'd still prefer to have a "real-one", rather than a lot of wind....which is my suspicion.

This whipping=-up of sentiment was common in the days leading to the Dot-Com fall and it would be a pity if a good company was caught-up in this, for it's g'teed that it's small investors that will lose out, paying too much too soon . . .shall we say?

The same whipping was the driving force of house-prices and that is set to destroy many lives - many on a recent TV programme have lost 100k which will take them a long time to repay. My own home is paid-for so movement in price is of no concern to me - but I still worry for others being manipulated by those that are making money for little work.

Halifax, are you a holder?
What's yr experience of the Company [OXB]..?
I don't short stocks, although I reserve the right to do. So far I've resisted.

Hangon a word of advice dont believe everything you read in the newspapers or see on the TV.
iF you are really a shareholder then why are you talking about shorting their shares . You seem somewhat confused.

Halifax. You mentioned "shorting" - I have said I don't short.
-that's hardly being confused.
OXB rose 2% early today.

I don't believe what I read this weekend, either (thanks); - but it seems everyone else does - and some punters are paying 30% more than the price last week.

And some are buying large amounts if this doesn't come of there will be tears.

COMPANIES - INTERNATIONAL: Sanofi hopes lift Oxford
By Salamander Davoudi in London, Financial Times
Published: Feb 12, 2008


Oxford BioMedica shares jumped 17 per cent yesterday on the back of speculation that the UK biotechnology company is about to be bought by Sanofi Aventis, its French partner.

Both Sanofi and Oxford BioMedica declined to comment.

Analysts believe any offer for the company would - at its lowest - be about the 50p level, valuing the business at about 280m ($546m). This is less than the 518m ($751m) Sanofi could have to pay the biotech company under the terms of a licensing deal for TroVax, a cancer vaccine being developed for renal, prostate and colorectal cancer.

Navid Malik, an analyst at Collins Stewart, said: "Sanofi Aventis has committed about 350m and if everything is successful they are never going to pay this when the company is so cheap at the moment."

Shares in the company have fallen more than 60 per cent in the past six months. Analysts believe Sanofi Aventis could be waiting for a final safety review for TroVax, due in the next few months.

Paul Cuddon, an analyst at KBC Peel Hunt, said: "There may have to be a data trigger, they may be waiting for the final TroVax safety review before they do a deal and this is coming fairly soon."

Oxford BioMedica is also expecting phase I/II data for ProSavin, its gene-based therapy for Parkinson's disease this year. Phase Three data for Trovax will not be known until 2009.

A deal between the two companies has long been expected. Sanofi's cancer products are ageing. Acomplia, its new obesity treatment, has blockbuster potential but has been delayed by US regulators, while Plavix, its blood thinner, faces generic competition.

Shares in Oxford BioMedica rose 3p to 22p.

Driver, I think you are right, but those that bought below 20p will sell into this ungainly rush - they will make a few bob and those that are still buying (now), will wish they'd waited. Interesting that FT couldn't get anything out of the two companies - surely a denial is overdue? . . . but it is only two days ( following a poorly researched Rumour from the Mail on Sunday ( I think- DYOR).
Anyone that follows OXB would be very surprised - for the reasons I put forward already.
I suppose the FT has to report the sp movements; even though it's tailing off, now. Probably by Friday we shall know What's What.
The Trovax conclusion isn't expected until earliest =end-2008.
I hold.

Hangon: as soon as an RNS is published about a possible offer, the sp will shoot up - literally within seconds. Judging from the huge volume of trades in the past couple of days, compared with normal, I reckon something could be behind these rumours.