Does anyone know this company? It was highlighted in this weekend's paper and I wonder if it is about to fall a lot more ( eg with the prospect of a Rights Issue, etc), and that might be a good time to get in - when they have some cash.

Are they beholden to Supermarkets, I wonder - could this mean they have little "pricing-power"? - That's something that any go-go business needs, perhaps along with a USP - although this is hardly likley in the "food" industry, is it?

Stock to Watch: Premier Foods

By Edmond Jackson | Tue, 15/11/2011 - 00:00

The bombed-out shares of FTSE 250-listed food producer Premier Foods (PFD) have enjoyed a bounce from a recent 3p low after directors piled in following 7 November news that banks had deferred a key covenant test, and an analyst at Investec suggested "a plausible equity value of 20p in six months". Yet there was a drop from 7p to 5p briefly on Monday 14 November after UBS changed stance to 'sell', targeting 2p, given the risk that shareholders' interests are subordinate to bankers'. How to divine such conflicting signals?

While the scale of buying is not massive - 70,300 spread over four people, with the managing director of bakery accounting for 44,700 - it is interesting to see operational directors buying, representing belief in a turnaround. Directors can prove less good at judging wider issues however.

For more analysis of how to read directors' actions, read: Are directors' moves a signal to success?

There was also modest buying among directors near the 6p level in October, despite a weak interim management statement (IMS) depressing the shares. For the three months to end-September, trading was "significantly behind our expectations" as group sales slipped 3.6% to 477 million and this was accompanied by a profit warning.

The shocking aspect was this coming at a time when Premier is close anyway to its covenant of 3.9 times net debt - about 950 million - to EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) which analysts have estimated at 250 million, hence a ratio of 3.8 times.

Since the next covenant test at end-December had stipulated 3.45 times, the banks most likely realise the situation needs dragging out - it being as much their problem as Premier's.

The saving grace for gamblers in the shares might be that bankers will ultimately fear taking control by a debt-for-equity swap. Some kind of facilities extension, rather like the way indebted European nations are being bailed out, might follow. Yet equity and debt plays alike are getting more alert to the proverbial 'kicking the can down the road'. It would be foolhardy to assume the bankers are in this so deep they won't take radical action.

Additionally there is a pension fund deficit of about 500 million; and so despite annual group sales of about 2.5 billion the equity value is necessarily low - about 150 million, with the shares currently at about 6p.

So the crux is whether Premier can define a trading turnaround that adds up to a bankable proposition without writing out shareholders. They may need to wait for the evidence, as last time there was no update between the October 2010 IMS and the mid-February prelims.

The main hope lies in the recovery plan defined by the new chief executive, ex-president of Kraft Foods Europe. Even if you lack appetite for Premier shares, the situation is now a classic test to follow, of a Warren Buffett wisecrack: "When a manager with a reputation for excellence tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that stays intact."

Operational priorities are on eight brands considered as having the best growth potential: Ambrosia, Batchelor's, Bisto, Hovis, Loyd Grossman, Mr Kipling, Oxo and Sharwood's. So a botulism poisoning alert over Loyd Grossman curry sauce, with a batch being recalled, is unfortunate publicity in the mainstream media currently, as the spores may have nothing to do with the food manufacturer's hygiene - instead, originate in farmers' soil. Yet it is an untimely dent to the Loyd Grossman food brand, whose sales may be affected.

Another key priority is to "work more collaboratively with our customer partners to deliver category growth through greater and more focused product innovation... and other brand-building initiatives". The firm will certainly need to be vigorous as supermarket shelves are a lot more complex compared with the 1970s when this group's products were dominant - for example "brown bread" effectively meant Hovis. Traditional brands have been elbowed aside by a lot more choice including "value" and "taste the difference" supermarket own-brands.

To its credit, Premier has adapted such that a third of its sales are non-branded, although it is hard for outsiders to figure what is involved from the group's financial statements.

Ironically, what appears a declining trend within the business amid challenged UK grocery sales, contrasts with broker expectations (as shown in Company REFS ) for substantial profit growth in both 2011 and 2012, implying earnings per share of 2p rising to 3p. (This nominally low level resulting from nearly 2.4 billion shares in issue.) The analysts apparently had these forecasts in mid-October after the weak IMS, although the consensus advice was 'sell'.

Investec appears to be the only broker turning optimistic, upgrading from 'hold' to 'buy' after the covenant test deferral. I would treat their idea of a rise to 20p as highly speculative while the group has yet to show how it can improve its cash flow. At the half-year stage there was a net outflow of 38 million compared with 13 million for 2010; quite to be expected though, as a result of disposals.

The 7 October IMS cited ongoing disposals needed to cut debt, so progress with this besides the group's trading position needs watching. The shares are high risk while Premier is caught between the pincers of reducing cash flow and being close to its banking covenants.

Gamblers in the shares do at least have in their favour the banks are in their own predicament here, hence likely to be supportive. The big question is whether the new chief executive can perform a Houdini-like escape from the debt shackles without too painful a debt-equity swap.

The trend in company's financial statements and a possible recession make this a tough challenge - but given his willingness to join, and the other directors' share buying, it will be interesting to watch how this plays out.

From my thread on another place........

A good chance that the shares will retrace to the Fibonaci 61.8% or 4.725p

it went at low of 4.75 close to the end of the day

Yesterdays chart....

more than a chance macho :-))

spread 4.918 / 4.998 +0.07p

this morning 4.62p intraday low it seems was the expected 61.8% fibonaci retracement.

signs of stronger order book and wanting to finally move higher after the retracement of the last couple days

In auction - I was considering buying back if it dropped below 3 - now I'm not so sure.

Looks to be quite stable today, has the "rot" finally stopped?

Out of auction +20%

KEEP an EYE

4.86p +0.36p

after the large volume last week and recent retracement, today is on the rise opposite to the market
Stronger order book on the bid side, though the volume is low

5.40p +0.89p

Director buying

Ian Deste Group Sales Director

purchase 186,746
on 15.11.11
at 5.20p

I had more than that last week!

Moving higher again after the large spread that pause for time till the spread narrow

spreads earlier
5.10 / 5.54p
5.15 / 5.40p
5.20 / 5.40p

5.20 / 5.30p lowest offer

5.20 / 5.35p
5.30 / 5.40p

skinny

what about now?

no chance of 3p then?

I'm out - so probably 7p by the end of play :-)

the normal thing is retracement after the sharp rise, but once it starts to go higher again,
there is good chance that it will move higher than before

Premier Foods Appoints Mark Moran as Chief Financial Officer

Premier Foods, home to some of Britain's favourite food brands, today announces the appointment of Mark Moran (51) as Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer. Mark will join the Group in early December and will replace Jim Smart who will step down from the Board on Mark's arrival. Jim has agreed to remain with the company until early 2012 to ensure a smooth handover to his successor.

Jim Smart has led the Group's financial strategy since joining Premier Foods in 2009 and has made a major contribution to the company. He agreed with the company that 2012 would be the right time to step down as the company's new business plan is finalised and as its new financing arrangements are put in place.

Prior to joining the company, Mark Moran's most recent appointment was as Group Finance Director of SSL International Plc, a market leader in consumer healthcare, recently acquired by Reckitt Benckiser. He has extensive experience of working with global brands gained from his six years at SSL including strategic and day-to-day financial management, executive Board responsibilities and investor relations. Mark was a non-executive director at Brixton Plc between 2008 and 2009 where he chaired the Audit Committee.

His earlier career included senior roles at Porvair Plc and Caradon plc. Mark trained as a Chartered Accountant with Arthur Andersen.

Commenting on the changes, Michael Clarke, Chief Executive Officer, said:

"I am grateful for Jim's personal support for me during my first months with the company and for his broader contribution over the past few years. I wish him every success in his future career.

"Mark Moran will be a terrific addition to the team. His expertise will be invaluable as we continue our journey to rebuild the company and restore growth. I'm delighted that our new leadership team is now complete"

Jim Smart said:

"I've enjoyed my two years with Premier Foods. I am confident that Michael and his team can return the business to growth. I felt it was the right time to hand over to a new person to help Michael lead the company in the next stage of its recovery. I wish the company every success."

Looks like we are "off" again.

Another bounce day, next stop 7p!!

off again today!!

Norges > 4%

Premier boss Michael Clarke backed by city

Premier Foods boss Michael Clarke has received a resounding vote of confidence from city analysts, six months into his role, as he continues his plan to guide the firm out of trouble.

Premier Foods plc

17 January 2012

Premier Foods Plc ("the Group")

Premier Foods announces update on growth plan, increased cost reduction target and 2011 trading

17 January 2012

Premier Foods today announces further progress on delivering its plan to restore profitable growth in line with the five priorities that it set out on 7 October last year:

-- Investing behind eight Power Brands
-- Divesting selected businesses to sharpen focus
-- Strengthening capabilities, especially sales and marketing
-- Right-sizing and reducing the company's cost base
-- Agreeing a re-financing package with the banks
The company continues to gain momentum against each of these priorities.

Under the direction of the new leadership team, detailed plans have been put in place to focus investment behind growing the eight Power Brands of Hovis, Ambrosia, Mr. Kipling, Sharwood's, Loyd Grossman, Bisto, Oxo andBatchelors. The Group is planning to double marketing spend behind these brands in 2012 and six of the Power Brands will be back on TV with advertising in the first quarter, spearheading a full programme of new product innovation, promotions and marketing throughout the year.

To support the new focus on Power Brands, the Group has accelerated the divestiture of non-core businesses, completing the sale of its Brookes Avana chilled food business and announcing the agreement to sell its four Irish grocery brands in recent weeks. Further selected businesses are expected to be divested in 2012 increasing the company's focus on its Power Brands and additionally helping deleverage the business.

As the size of the portfolio is reduced, the cost base of the company will be adjusted to reduce complexity and reflect the smaller size of the business. In October, the Group stated that it would significantly exceed the GBP20 million cost savings by 2013 that it announced at the 2011 Half Year. The Group now expects to more than double the original GBP20 million cost reduction target to over GBP40 million by 2013 by creating a stronger and more efficient business that will help release funds to invest behind driving its recovery and growth plans. To achieve this target, every aspect of the company's costs is being reviewed and it is expected that a series of cost saving programmes will be initiated throughout the year that will result in reductions in the workforce, mainly from overhead functions. These reductions, which will be subject to appropriate consultations, are expected to amount to approximately 5% of the company's current workforce of around 12,000 employees.

The Group also confirms that the key Christmas trading period has been in line with its expectations and that, accordingly, management expects the overall Group financial results for 2011, both reported and underlying, to be at the lower end of current market expectations.

Discussions with the company's banks over a re-financing package continue to make progress and it is anticipated that an appropriate agreement will be reached soon.

Commenting on progress, Michael Clarke, Chief Executive Officer, said:

"We continue to deliver on our plans to stabilise the business and invest in our recovery and future growth.

While decisions to reduce the workforce are always difficult, I'm convinced we are taking the right steps in the long term interests of the business, employees and our stakeholders."

A full presentation of the 2011 Full Year results and the company's Business Plan, including information on cost saving programmes, is planned to be provided to the market prior to the end of March.