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Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)     

markymar - 15 Aug 2005 15:14

Web Page Traffic Counter

http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.




free counters

halifax - 19 May 2010 14:39 - 1109 of 6294

Harry the overall tone of today's RNS appears quite upbeat, the sp may well drift downwards which would create buying opportunities.

avsec - 19 May 2010 15:35 - 1110 of 6294

DD
Now that they are 183... er...No! The whole lot a sliding with the exception of FKL which is thankfully bucking the trend

HARRYCAT - 19 May 2010 16:07 - 1111 of 6294

halifax, assuming news on lab tests released around 1st June, I would not want to be topping up again before 27th/28th may. Sp now sliding faster than I thought it would.

halifax - 19 May 2010 16:24 - 1112 of 6294

Harry a lot of people will be thinking the same thing, most important is the estimated size of the find,and will this news drive the sp down or up. No matter they still have ernest to drill.

required field - 19 May 2010 17:31 - 1113 of 6294

aggghhh.....

required field - 19 May 2010 17:32 - 1114 of 6294

I get the feeling : I'm not going to win on this stock....175p....and dropping...blast...I can't go out for one afternoon without this happening....now look what you lot have done....

cynic - 19 May 2010 17:34 - 1115 of 6294

the intimation was surely for "proper" news this week ..... if so, delayed news is bad news especially in vile mrkets

kimoldfield - 19 May 2010 17:41 - 1116 of 6294

"the intimation was surely for "proper" news this week"

I don't think that came from RKH though Cynic, just BB speculation?

required field - 19 May 2010 17:41 - 1117 of 6294

This is going to be incredibly difficult to play...I can see that a mile off...

cynic - 19 May 2010 17:46 - 1118 of 6294

thanks kim; be thankful for small mercies then

required field - 19 May 2010 17:48 - 1119 of 6294

This morning I bought a few more.....wonderful timing....

kimoldfield - 19 May 2010 17:48 - 1120 of 6294

Ever so small! ;o)

kimoldfield - 19 May 2010 17:49 - 1121 of 6294

Should have gone to FKL RF!

required field - 19 May 2010 18:06 - 1122 of 6294

Already in.....but expected 250p...here on announcement....now looking like 150p...

kimoldfield - 19 May 2010 21:06 - 1123 of 6294

I can't fathom out why there was such a re-tracement today, unless a large proportion of investors took fright at the "well suspended" statement, in which case they shouldn't be investing in a segment they don't understand!

Proselenes - 20 May 2010 03:57 - 1124 of 6294

kim, hot money taking profits, and shorters knowing they a grace period of 10 days minimum with no more news........ presents a buying opportunity on the consolidation :)

Its terrible when shorters and people who want to buy lower start overtaking a thread and posting all sorts of nonsense, and that has now happening on AFN, but that is part of life.

You will note from the earlier releases they not only took oil samples, but they did coring samples of the side walls. This is where they use a coring tool and take cores of the reservoir formation for analysis.

It seems to me they want to not only analysis the oil but also all the cores and only after this is all done with some data crunching will they release the update all RKS shareholders want.

Yes, it takes more time but ultimately with core samples analyses then can announce "commercial" without the need for flow testing.

With pressure, porosity, permeability, oil type and core wall samples all tested and data stamped its as good as a flow test anyway - nobody within the industry would argue with results once cores are also tested. A final flow test becomes a formality, as opposed to a "make or break".

Whilst short term people can complain over lack of more news, the net effect of waiting a little longer is that you will get solid and irrevocable data soon that nobody can deny, so its short term paid for much more gain in 2 weeks time, all being well.

I cannot complain though, this drop has allowed me to get some more (sorry for the drop on XEL today but I had to take profits there from my 20p batches and pump more into RKH in the low 180's).

I will also be happy to sell off a few more stocks now to pump more cash into RKH now this opportunity has come around with a solid pull back in the price.

Every stock needs to consolidate and it makes rises much more stronger long term if you take out the margined and the weaker holders, allow shorters to do their job and then allow lots of new buyers (and old holders buying more) to join the party.

One thing you can be sure of, and that is as the end of "10 to 15" day period mentioned comes into view there will not be one short on the stock, they will all have closed off and the price will likely be back above 200p and waiting for the news.

In the meantime I shall keep filling my boots, which may result in other AIM stocks falling down as I take profits and sell them to pile more into RKH :)

Have fun and enjoy.

Proselenes - 20 May 2010 08:19 - 1125 of 6294

Rockhopper Exploration plc
RKH:AIM : 172p | 300.6M | Speculative Buy

A buying opportunity -- SPECULATIVE BUY, target 433p

Richard Slape, 44.20.7050.6643

Event

Rockhopper has successfully suspended well 14/10-2 on the Sea Lion prospect for future testing. Analysis of the well results is ongoing and the physical samples are currently en route to the United Kingdom via a freight plane.

Rockhopper plans to issue a further update in the next 10 to 15 days in which it expects to provide preliminary estimates of potential size. Recall that earlier this month Rockhopper announced the Sea Lion oil discovery after exploration well 14/10-2 encountered a 150 metre gross oil column containing 53 metres of net pay in multiple zones, the thickest of which is 25 metres, with average porosity of 19% and "excellent" permeability in the main zone. Pre-drill, the best estimate of Sea Lion's reserves potential was 170 mmbbl: however, given that this assessment assumed a net oil column of approximately 30 metres and porosity of 23%, it seems eminently possible that this figure will be exceeded.

Impact

Yesterday's progress report gave us no cause for concern. Hence, we were surprised that Rockhopper's share price fell by over 18% on the news and regard this as an attractive buying opportunity.

Action / Valuation

Although there are reasons to believe Sea Lion could be bigger than the pre-drill best estimate of 170 mmbbl, for the time being we continue to use this figure as the basis for our valuation of Rockhopper. Allied to an oil price of US$70 per barrel flat real and a 15% discount rate, we estimate a field of this size would be worth 343p/share. In addition, our assessment of the expected monetary value (EMV) of the prospects that the company either will drill or hopes to participate in the drilling of over the next few months plus its remaining cash is equivalent to 90p/share. Based on this we reiterate our target price of 433p/share and SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.


* Certain research on the Canaccord Research Portal is produced by Canaccord Genuity Limited which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA).Where identified, this is non-independent research and a marketing communication under the FSA Conduct of Business rules.

Proselenes - 20 May 2010 08:20 - 1126 of 6294

Double post - deleted

cynic - 20 May 2010 08:30 - 1127 of 6294

what's this? ..... the news is so good you had to post it twice? .... how many times will you post if the next rns is truly exciting?

Balerboy - 20 May 2010 08:31 - 1128 of 6294

Won't hear a peep if it's non commercial......
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