I don't think their name "Telford" indicates where they operate - East London according to Shares.

The current sp 1.50 is more-or-less the price prior to the Olympic Bid, which probably gave the sp a boost, withouit looking to far to the cost involved.

It's been all downhill for the last 12-months - Oooo deary.
The yield isn't good, despite the fall.

Published: Nov 18, 2015 10:45 a.m. ET By JEFFRY BARTASH
Yet rebound in permits signal increase in construction

The National Guard was plenty busy in October when heavy flooding wracked South Carolina. But many home builders had to put construction on hold.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Home builders scaled back construction in October, especiall in the South where storms and flooding disrupted work.

So-called housing starts fell 11% last month to an annual rate of 1.06 million, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That’s the lowest level since March.

Housing starts in September were also revised down slightly to a seasonally adjusted 1.19 million rate.

Yet a rebound in permits to build new homes suggests the slowdown in October is likely to be temporary. Permits rose 4.1% last month to a 1.15 million annual rate.

The reduced level of construction in October occurred primarily in the South, where starts fell 18.6%. Half of all new homes are being built in the South, the fastest growing part of the country.

Permits to build new homes in the South, however, rose in October to the highest level in eight years, a sign builders are moving forward with new construction.

What’s more, nationwide permits for single-family homes rose 2.4% in October to an annual rate of 711,000. That’s the highest level since the end of 2007. Single-family homes account for about three-quarters of the U.S. housing market.

“Rising building permits signal that housing activity remains on an expansionary path,” said Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics. Sales and construction of new homes have been rising amid a surge in hiring and an improved U.S. economy.

The number of new homes already under construction is also at a seven-year high. What’s especially hot are buildings with five units or more that are likely to be rented. Construction on these buildings hit a 41-year peak last month.

An improving housing market has been one of the bright spots for the U.S. economy over the past year. While a bit of a slowdown is expected during the winter, builders are still very optimistic.
-------------------------
Builders dial back confidence in November - Published: Nov 17, 2015 10:25 a.m.
Home builder index drops but still showing ‘good’ conditions, NAHB says - By ANDREA RIQUIER

Sentiment among home builders eased but remained strong in November, according to a closely-watched index.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index pulled back 3 points to 62, a bit weaker than the 64 reading expected by economists polled by MarketWatch. That’s 4 points higher than the reading of 58 notched a year ago, and the average so far in 2015, also 58. A reading over 50 signals improvement.

Builder views of sales conditions in the next six months fell 5 points to 70. The index measuring views of current conditions dipped 3 points to 67. The buyer traffic index rose 1 point to 48. That index hasn’t topped the neutral 50 line since 2005.

An improving job market and increasing wages are bolstering the housing market. The unemployment rate is at the lowest level since the recession, and inflation-adjusted wages have climbed 2.4% in the past 12 months, the Labor Department separately said Wednesday.

Home builders broke ground on more homes than at any time since 2007 in September, and demand for both new and previously owned homes remains hotter than supply.

Builder confidence was mostly elevated in 2015, despite the dip in November. But NAHB noted in a release that “members continue to voice concerns about the availability of lots and labor.”

Builders have reported strong results in the most recent earnings season. D.R. Horton DHI, +0.86% , the largest U.S. company, reported a 44% jump in profit in the most recent quarter, with orders up 19%.

Lennar LEN, +0.63% , the number-two builder by volume, also reported profit and revenue that were better than expected. Orders rose more than 10%, the company said.

An exchange-traded fund tracking the home builders, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF XHB, +0.79% , was slightly higher on Wednesday and has climbed 10% over the last year.

From the Telegraph - 28 November 2015

Will the buy-to-let tax derail housebuilders' shares?

The Autumn Statement offered both good and bad news for housebuilders. We asked leading fund managers how they view the firms' prospects now

Housebuilder shares have soared since the financial crisis.

Housebuilders' shares have rocketed over the past five years, benefiting from favourable government policies, record low interest rates and cheap mortgages.
Rising house prices and pent-up demand outweighing supply have been a winning formula for those investors who bravely bought these bombed-out shares five years ago.
As the table below shows, all of the shares in the sector had rock-bottom valuations five years ago. The majority had a "price to book" ratio of the less than one, offering investors a discount to the value of the firm’s assets.

Those investors who bought in have reaped the rewards – shares in Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments, for example, have risen by more than 600pc.
Last week, however, prices were turbulent in the wake two unexpected political moves: one of them positive and the other negative for housebuilding businesses.

The good news, a government pledge to deliver 400,000 new homes by the end of the decade, leaked out before the Chancellor, George Osborne, even stood up to deliver his Autumn Statement on Wednesday.
Shares in the sector rallied, with the majority making gains of 4pc or more in the first couple of hours of trading.
But when Mr Osborne delivered his speech, which included an unexpected stamp duty hike for buy-to-let investors, share prices fell, giving up around half their gains.

Investors took profits amid fears that the surprise tax increase could dampen overseas investor interest and pull the plug on developments that are already in the pipeline.

Fund managers' reactions: the bears
Chris White, head of equities at Premier, a fund manager, is in the bearish camp and sold shares in his last housebuilder, Crest Nicholson, a couple of weeks ago, in expectation of “potential storm clouds on the horizon” for the housebuilders.
Mr White said: “Although the Government wants to encourage housebuilding, partly to give the economy a boost, the Autumn Statement has hit landlords and potential second home owners, which will be negative at the margins.
“This gives us some concern that prices and volumes may not meet market expectations in 2016. Both labour and materials costs are rising, which may put pressure on profits.”

Another negative point is the fact that an interest rate rise is on the cards in America next month, which is likely to be followed in Britain in the second half of next year.
A rising interest rate environment does not usually correlate with positive performance for housebuilders' shares, as rising mortgage costs tend to put the brakes on demand for new properties.
The final note of caution is that valuations have arguably become too expensive, with the sector becoming more and more popular with investors. As the table shows, on the "price to book" measure valuations have more than trebled in most cases.

Share price performance over five years
Price to book ratio five years ago
Price to book ratio today
Taylor Wimpey
661%
0.7
2.4
Barratt Developments
691%
0.3
1.6
Persimmon
422%
0.9
2.6
Berkeley Group
278%
1.3
2.6
Bellway
369%
0.7
2
Redrow
299%
0.7
1.8
Crest Nicholson
95% (since February 2013)
N/A*
2.5
Bovis Homes
175%
0.8
1.4
Galliford Try
411%
0.5
2.1
* Was not listed on the stock market five years ago
Source: ShareScope

Fund managers' reactions: the bulls
But fund managers who are not rushing to bank their profits say the interest rate argument does not stack up. Rates will rise only slightly and slowly, they say.
They also disagree that, together, the two policy measures will negatively affect the housebuilders.

Richard Watts, who runs the Old Mutual UK Mid Cap fund, has been a big backer of the sector over the past couple of years and remains so.
Mr Watts said the shares were no longer bargains, but, given the shortage of houses, first-time buyers would fill any gap in demand left by buy-to-let investors.

Luke Newman, co-manager of the Henderson UK Absolute Return fund, agreed. He said: “Britain does not have enough houses to keep pace with its growing population. In recent years the Government has tried to stimulate housebuilding through policies such as the Help to Buy scheme, the loosening of planning laws and curbing local authorities’ ability to block development.
“The announcements of plans for 400,000 new affordable homes in England by 2020 and a new Help to Buy scheme for London are a welcome continuation of this policy.”
Other professional investors pointed to the fact that housebuilders were “cash rich” and would continue to return money to shareholders in the form of dividend payments.

Julian Chillingworth, chief investment officer at Rathbones, the fund group, said he viewed the sector as more of an income investment, rather than expecting a repeat of the huge share price gains in the coming years.
“The housebuilders are in strong financial positions and have plenty of cash," he said. "The yields are attractive and I expect some one-off payments – special dividends – also to be paid from time to time.”

Dividend yield*
Dividend cover
Taylor Wimpey
5%
1.6
Barratt Developments
5.2%
1.7
Persimmon
5.1%
1.7
Berkeley Group
4.7%
1.6
Bellway
3.6%
3
Redrow
2.1%
5.6
Crest Nicholson
3.7%
2.5
Bovis Homes
4.4%
2.4
Galliford Try
5.6%
1.6
* Forecast – based on analysts' expectations in one year's time.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares/12021154/Will-the-buy-to-let-tax-derail-housebuilders-shares.html

H1 results this Wednesday?
380p
There is a lot of comment in the press at the moment about home builders shares being "toppy" right now but with the housing market the way it is, there could well be significant SP growth to come for all of them. They are priced very cheaply against the wider market in P/E terms anyway.
On the basis of the two detailed broker notes issued recently, TEFs has an EV of about 459p to 465p for December so there is a healthy margin of safety for buyers at the present SP and it will be interesting to see what the company has to say when it publishes its H1 results this Wednesday.

It would be helpful if HPI does not exceed about 5% per annum from now onwards to prevent affordability criteria becoming stretched. There is a risk that the BOE may tighten lending restrictions on private BTL landlords this week but doubtless the homebuilders will negotiate more favourably with their regular,repeat purchase BTL clients.
At the end of the day, the government wants more homes built and they are not going to achieve that by discouraging buyers of any type and you don't help the lower end first time buyers by bashing the market further up the ladder.

StockMarketWire.com
Telford Homes has more than doubled its H1 pretax profit to GBP21.0m, from GBP9.4m. Revenue was GBP139.6m, from GBP65.1m.

CEO Jon Di-Stefano commented:
"A fundamental lack of supply of homes in London is contributing to strong demand for our properties in non-prime locations. As a result we have a sector leading forward sold position which gives the Board exceptional visibility over future profits and cash flows.

"Our recent acquisition of the regeneration business of United House and an equity placing raising £50 million are important steps in delivering on the Board's longer term growth targets.

"We will continue to invest the placing funds over the next few months, having already acquired a substantial site with planning permission for 206 homes, and the Board is very confident in the prospects for Telford Homes over the next few years."

HIGHLIGHTS
· Profit before tax more than doubled to £21.0 million (H1 2014: £9.4 million)

· Margins remain in excess of the Group's target levels

· Interim dividend increased to 6.5 pence (H1 2014: 5.1 pence)

· Focus on non-prime locations in London where demand remains strong

· Acute shortage of new homes driving longer term growth plans

· Forward sales of more than £700 million to be recognised from the year to 31 March 2016 onwards

· Institutional private rented sector investment expected to contribute sales in the future

· United House acquisition has increased the development pipeline to over £1.5 billion

· Successful equity placing raising £50 million to take new opportunities and accelerate growth

· Immediate progress made in utilising the funds raised following the acquisition of Carmen Street site with detailed planning consent for 206 homes

· Telford Homes well placed to cement its position as one of London's leading developers

Much better results than expected, specially profit after tax and EPS due to less tax paid
Pretax profit has double but EPS was 122% up

Interim ............................ 2015 --- 2014
Profit after income tax.. £16,821M - £7,445M + 125%
Earnings per share: Basic.... 28.0p - 12.6p + 122%

-------------------------
edited 7 dec
I.C. - 2 December 15

Telford expects to double output in five years
TIP UPDATE
Telford Homes PLC (TEF)
VALUE
MEDIUM RISK

Our previous tip
We said - Buy
When - 22 April 2010
PRICE - 101p
TIP PERFORMANCE TO DATE+285%
The bears in the housebuilding sector will struggle to find much to support their scepticism in interim figures from east London focused Telford Homes (TEF). Turnover, profits and earnings per share all more than doubled in the six months to September, and there is no sign of the insatiable demand for properties close to central London abating.

Telford's secured forward order book of over £700m is more than four times total revenue reported in the year to March 2015. The order book also helps to boost cash flow, because Telford takes a 10 per cent deposit on each sale, followed by a further 10 per cent a year later when exchange of contracts takes place more than two years ahead of completion.

Chief executive John Di-Stefano pointed out that sales price inflation had slowed to around 5 per cent, as had build cost inflation - both pointing towards a more sustainable trend. On the recent imposition of extra stamp duty on buy-to-let investors, who buy about half of Telford's homes, Mr Di-Stefano suggested that strong tenant demand is likely to sustain demand from investors, too. He also hinted that institutional investors, who are likely to be exempt from the extra tax, may become more important to Telford.

Analysts at Peel Hunt expect full-year adjusted pre-tax profit of £30.5m and EPS of 36.5p (from £25.1m and 32.6p in FY2015).

TELFORD HOMES (TEF)
ORD PRICE: 388.5p MARKET VALUE: £290m
TOUCH: 387.25-389p 12-MONTH HIGH: 495p LOW: 337p
DIVIDEND YIELD: 3.2% PE RATIO: 8
NET ASSET VALUE: 181p NET DEBT: 38%
Half-year to 30 Sep Turnover (£m) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2014 65 9.4 12.6 5.1
2015 140 21.0 28.0 6.5
% change +115 +123 +122 +27
Ex-div: 10 Dec

Payment: 8 Jan

IC VIEW:
Valuing a company using net tangible assets of £322m loses some of its relevance when there is a £700m secured order book - and a £1.5bn pipeline beyond that. In common with the peer group, shares in Telford have come back from earlier highs, but are well ahead of our long-standing buy tip (101p, 22 Apr 2010). Given the highly visible growth profile, we remain bullish. Buy.

Last IC view: Buy, 412p 23 Sep 2015

Telford Homes confirms profits surge
By Lee Wild | Wed, 2nd December 2015 - 11:24

Telford Homes confirms profits surge You would think Telford Homes (TEF) is in something of a sweet spot. It builds homes in London, where affordable new homes are in short supply, and bosses said seven weeks ago that profit in the first half had more than doubled. That's just been confirmed - but Telford shares have underperformed the sector by almost 10% since a fundraising last month at a discount to the market price. That looks unfair.

Telford made a pre-tax profit of £21 million in the six months to 30 September, as an increase in completions from 140 to 282 drove revenue up 115% to £140 million. Gross profit margin of 27.6% easily beat the firm's 24% target.

Admittedly, results this year will be weighted to the first half due to the timing of completions, but house broker Peel Hunt still thinks profit will jump by a fifth in the year ending March 2016 to £30.5 million.

Telford has also recorded total forward sales of over £700 million to be recognised after March next year. Taking a 10% deposit on each sale and more on exchange of contracts is great for cash flow and funds growth.

"Given the forward sold position, the group remains well on track to meet profit expectations for the year to 31 March 2016 and beyond," it says.

Development pipeline 'beefed up'

Buying United House in September has also beefed up Telford's development pipeline, which now stands at more than £1.5 billion. Peel Hunt reckons this should support the group doubling output to over 1,000 units by 2020.

Raising £50 million from a share placing at 360p last month also provides firepower. Telford has already started spending it and promises to put all the cash to work within two years. That should help the company achieve its target of annual profit in excess of £45 million from 2019, then double 2015 profits by 2020.

Peel Hunt pencils in £50 million profit for 2020, but it could be more. "Our forecasts also prudently assume no further house-price inflation, the effects of which could provide a material boost to medium-term profits," says the broker.

"The shares offer an average yield of c4% over the next four years and our target price of 475p implies potential upside of 24%. 'Buy' recommendation maintained."

And that doesn't seem overly aggressive. Of course, planning delays are part of life for every housebuilder, and local authorities can be prickly customers. But Telford has got a grip on costs and it works in a market where demand will exceed supply for years. A forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of around 11 seems scant reward.

Robin Hardy at Shore Capital agrees, arguing that Telford is "still the stock showing the greatest value in the sector, driven by its desire to maximise growth and capitalise on market potential".

From the Guardian UK house prices set to rise further as demand outstrips supply

House prices in the UK are set to increase by between 4% and 6% in 2016, as increasing affordability problems and the prospects of an interest rate rise put the brakes on the property market, the country’s biggest mortgage lender has forecast.

Demand for property has increased in recent months, but the number of homes coming on to the market has remained at a record low. Surveyors and property websites have reported a shortage of properties for sale which is driving up prices, and described a vicious circle as potential sellers wait until there are more homes available before putting theirs on the market.

In the first 2016 forecast to be published by a major lender, Martin Ellis, Halifax’s housing economist, said there was little reason to expect this pattern to change in the year ahead. “As a result, the substantial imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist, maintaining upward pressure on house prices in 2016,” he said.

“On average, UK house prices look expensive compared to incomes but valuations are supported by the low levels of property for sale, low levels of housebuilding, and exceptionally low interest rates.”

However, Ellis said he did expect growth to fall from its current level. Halifax’s most recent monthly update of its house prices index put the average value of a UK property at £205,240 – 9.7% higher than a year earlier.

For 2016, he said national growth was likely to slow to between 4% and 6% – which at the top end would add more than £12,000 to the cost of buying – while in London the slowdown will be sharper. House price rises in the capital have already eased since the autumn of last year, when Halifax’s index was showing an annual increase of 21%. This autumn it had fallen to 13%, and Ellis said he expected growth to fall into single figures in 2016.

Ellis said the national fall would be driven by the continuing affordability crisis, which has seen prices across the UK rise the equivalent of 5.31 times average earnings, and those in London reach a new high of 7.96 times. Although mortgage rates are at record lows, buyers are having to save more for deposits in order to get a loan.

“With house prices continuing to increase more quickly than average earnings, it is increasingly difficult to get on the housing ladder,” he said. “This ongoing development, combined with the growing prospect of an interest rate rise, should start to put the brakes on house price growth during the course of 2016.”

The bank’s monthly figures are based on mortgages it agrees each month, adjusted to reflect the sale of a typical house. Increases have outstripped the 3% to 5% predicted by the lender a year ago, the result it said of interest rate rises being pushed back, the continued fall in the cost of mortgages, and weaker than expected supply.

Beyond 2016 Halifax said it expected growth to be broadly in line with earnings, which have started to pick up in recent months. But much will hinge on whether the government’s recent promises to create more homes come to fruition. “Levels of housebuilding remain well below those required to keep up with the pace of household formation, but we do expect improvements over the medium term,” said Ellis. “An upward trend in housebuilding would help to bring demand and supply into better balance, helping to constrain upward pressure on house prices.”

Halifax’s prediction for 2016 is in line with that published by the Office for Budget Responsibility. It has forecast growth of 4.8% in 2016, followed by a similar increase in 2017. However, the OBR said changes to taxes paid by landlords added uncertainty to its predictions. Next April will see a surcharge added to the stamp duty paid on second homes, a move which will affect buy-to-let landlords and could lead to a flurry of activity before the change.

The tax hike on buy to let and stamp duty on second homes plus possible interest rate rises should see more properties from the lower end come on to the market in the next couple of years and hopefully put the brakes on these runaway prices .

390.50p +10p

Since 12:30pm has started moving north and now there is a strong order book with DEPTH of 30 v 18

Talk around of TEF were out in the market with Cally Road demand from the owner occupier would be much stronger

It was Peel Hunt in their post dilution report who said Tef were 'in advanced negotiations' to sell the 156 unit Cally Road development

Good article and TEF tick a lot of boxes for the institutional investor, Excellent conduit to product for them in growth locations

Https://www.investec.co.uk/content/dam/investec/investec.co.uk/Files/property/unlocking-the-door-for-the-mid-market-private-rented-sector.pdf

needs to break 390p for the second time and BREAKOUT will be on, at the momet there is a seller on the order book @ 390p addid 5K every time is taken as "AT"

Breaking up now on good support on the order book 27 v 19

spread 391 v 392p

moneyam is behind on showing prices

not in the tread though close to 2 weeks old .........

Telford Homes takes over £80m Poplar development - published 26 Nov 2015

Telford Homes plans to start construction of a 22-storey block of flats in east London next year.

The London focused residential property developer has paid Ballymore more than £20m for the development site on Carmen Street in Poplar E14.

The site has full detailed planning consent for a 22-storey development, consisting of 206 new homes and a nursery. Ballymore, also responsible for Old Spitalfields Market, was granted planning permission by Tower Hamlets Council for the mixed-use plan in 2013.

The development is close to Langdon Park Station. Telford Homes said that it expects to start work on site in 2016 with completions anticipated in 2019 and 2020, generating £80m of revenue.

Chief executive Jon Di-Stefano said: "This acquisition represents the first significant benefit of our recent £50m placing, which provides Telford Homes with additional flexibility to take advantage of competitive market opportunities. We are constantly reviewing potential sites and having access to this capital has allowed us to move quickly to secure the Carmen Street site which has the unexpected advantage of an existing planning consent. Poplar is an area we know well, where there is strong and proven demand for our homes, and we look forward to commencing this exciting development in 2016.”

UP to 400p +4p

Next Thursday the 10th will be EX-dividend day, so just 1 & half day if interested on the 6.50p

TEF - Dividends

The interim dividend declared for the six months ended 30 September 2015 is 6.5 pence per ordinary share and is expected to be paid on 8 January 2016 to those shareholders on the register at the close of business on 11 December 2015. The ex-dividend date is therefore 10 December 2015.

Nice Dividend and 450p on the way .

on the move up today BREAKING 400p

there was an early buying trade of 43K @ 398p

Looked like a sell to me .

don't be silly, such a large amount would not be able to sell it on one go at market price, but a big discount, but buy yes and that was the reason for the rise after.

397.50 v 398.25 when the price was stablished just above middle price, but reported a few seconds later, when the share price was move up by the MM doing the deal, and that is why you think is otherwise.

There was a delayed earlier, much at the same price

09:58:05
397.955p
10,000K

note : Market Maker size are very small compare to the size mentioned
3MMs at 1.5K
2MMs at 3K
2 MMs at 5K

Close position on T+2 @ 404p and 403.15

did not want to pay for the stock and then tomorrow go down by 6.50p

#