.

Looking quite strong on the bid side, could be the run up through 80p is underway now.

Buying is strong on BOR and FOGL, not looking like PI's, they seem to be the sells.

Possibly now, as its getting in target range of BOR result, a few II's opening up long CFD positions - which should lead to gradual teasing up of BOR and FOGL now, fingers crossed.

With the sudden increase in buying yesterday I am intrigued.

Normally the rig stays within a 5M zone of the drill site, but yesterday she went off for a circuit around the site, perfect square, twice, now she is back on the drill site and within the 5M zone.

Looks like the rig did re-entry yesterday and is now drilling ahead again, if you zoom in on the link.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=308243000¢erx=-57.75184¢ery=-51.57723&zoom=10&type_color=9

So the buying of yesterday could be an indication as the map shows, drilling ahead again after the BOP pipe issue.

That would mean 2 weeks lost due to one of the pipes being broken on the BOP.

16th Feb to 29th Feb downtime.

13 days of no drilling.

Taking the 45 day schedule and saying day 36 should be TD ahead of testing and then P&A and we are now at day 31.

If 13 days lost we are looking at being on day 18 real time. That would mean 18 more days to go or a target for TD of circa 19th March.

Therefore volume increases should be watched out for from Monday 12th March onwards IMO.

Anything over 3M volume on BOR will be a leak IMV.

What figures does anyone have for risked and unrisked values for Darwin ?

Not that risked figures mean anything now with the drill bit in action.


Mine are :

Darwin : RISKED = 162 pence per share

Darwin : UNRISKED = 1103 pence (11 pounds) per share

.

whatever MrP may think, the market clearly has severe reservations - which of course is not to say that he is wrong

I am actually surprised at the lack of research people have not been doing.

There are very very good DHI's at Darwin, including an extended flat spot, gas chimneys and strong avo response. They also have 3D which means they can target the fat portion of the potential sands to ensure maximum pay, if there is any pay.

I will be surprised if Darwin has no oil or gas.

no doubt there are many experts and analysts who have indeed thorough homework but clearly reach different conclusions from you

And some just read the threads but don't bother posting their thoughts and research. I'm long on both BOR and FOGL for the record and have been for some time. Both futures in the money with trailing stop losses.

Highly risky as in the event of a hydrocarbon no show : you will be stopped out way down.....I'm in the shares so can wait for the next spud.....but spreads...ouch !....

You pay your money and take the risk, trading equities or spreads without a stop is risky.

Huge difference.....in this case....shares you can stay put for ages....not with spreads...

Thats rubbish, you can quite easily roll a future over from month to month, as long as you have funds to cover any loss plus your margin..

You are on the daily rollover or more longterm....believe me and I pray that you are right on this because I have the shares but with a spread of any kind you are taking a big, big, risk....so am I but not quite so big....

I'm on the June future, no difference between spread and equity except with an equity you need all the money up front.

Keeping the figures simple if I bought 1000 shares at 70p a share it'd cost me £700, with a spread if you buy £10 a point at 70 your downside risk is £700. Only difference tax and stamp aside is with a spread you don't need to stump up all the money when you place the bet.

and of course on spreads, while the profits are not taxable, your losses aren't allowable either

Very true Cynic, and of course there is stamp to consider on equities where as not on a spread.

And don't forget SB companies ARE the market - they make their money initially on the spread.

The spread however is normally very small, with equities however you pay to trade so very much like for like.

very heavy traffic today, but after a reasonably bright start, sp is falling away relatively sharply ..... that does not necessarily mean that bad news is in the offing and has been leaked to the privileged, but worth watching nevertheless

Had a sell order placed this morning for part of my holding @85