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Traders Thread - Friday 30th April (PSON)
Crocodile - 29 Apr 2004 21:41
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U.S. stocks tumbled again on worries about interest rates, the worsening Iraq situation and the morning's first-quarter GDP report which showed the economy grew at a 4.2 percent annual rate short of the 5 percent rate economists had expected. WPP advertising said revenues for the three months to March 31 climbed over 12 percent, with North America up almost 11 percent, the UK up almost 12 percent, Continental Europe up more than seven percent, and Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East up more than 28 percent. Pearson media said it was trading in line with its expectations and gave a bright outlook with trading prospects at their best for three years. SIG distributor of insulation products said like-for-like sales were ahead in its three regions in 2004, and it saw some growth through acquisition during the year. |
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Pubs 'N' Bars (F), Genetix (AGM), Irish Continental Uts (AGM), Johnston Press (AGM), Pearson (AGM & Trading), Portman (AGM), TF & JH Braime (AGM), WPP (Trading) |
Procter & Gamble, ChevronTexaco, Avon Products, CIGNA, Biogen 13:30 Personal Income (0.4%), Spending (0.7%) 15:45pm Mich Sentiment-Rev. (94) 15:00 Chicago PMI (60.3) |
Volkswagen, Metro, Alcatel, Vallourec, Metropole Television, Equant NV
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FTSE -14 |
DAX -38 |
DOW -1 |
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zarif
- 30 Apr 2004 17:13
- 112 of 117
maggot:
I did recieve your email via mam BB -but you forgot to put your email address on it.
Yes i think the cable and euro will rise a bit as they have made sort of spike lows.
have a look at the analysis ny nicole elliot on the site below.
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/TECHNICALS/FX_-_Europe.htm
rgds
zarif
I did recieve your email via mam BB -but you forgot to put your email address on it.
Yes i think the cable and euro will rise a bit as they have made sort of spike lows.
have a look at the analysis ny nicole elliot on the site below.
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/TECHNICALS/FX_-_Europe.htm
rgds
zarif
Melnibone - 01 May 2004 18:32 - 113 of 117
Hi Testex, glad to be of help with an opinion on CDN.
Ref AAL. It has dropped below the 200Day EMA.
Mining stocks and minerals are being hit by China at the moment.
China's trying to stop its growth running away into a bubble and
the consequent bubbling up of commodity prices.
Stuff needs to come back to nearer fair value again. Speculators
have chased mining stocks and commodity prices up. They're looking
for short term gain, not investments, so there's no saying how far
stuff will drop before a bounce as they take diminishing profits
pursued down by Bears and reversed positions.
Unofficialy, it's reckoned that China's growth has been really running
in excess of 12% which is not sustainable. It needs to be pegged back
or you get a situation similar to the 1999/2000 tech bubble.
Don't forget that the Yuan is still pegged to the Dollar which
gives it an edge in the markets. Japan has been spending a fortune
trying to keep the Yen lower and Europe has been gnashing its teeth
over the high Euro which has been ham-stringing exports and dollar
earners.
When the elastic band snaps back on mining stocks and commodity prices
there's no telling how far it will twang.
All in my amateur economic humble opinion.
Melnibone.
Ref AAL. It has dropped below the 200Day EMA.
Mining stocks and minerals are being hit by China at the moment.
China's trying to stop its growth running away into a bubble and
the consequent bubbling up of commodity prices.
Stuff needs to come back to nearer fair value again. Speculators
have chased mining stocks and commodity prices up. They're looking
for short term gain, not investments, so there's no saying how far
stuff will drop before a bounce as they take diminishing profits
pursued down by Bears and reversed positions.
Unofficialy, it's reckoned that China's growth has been really running
in excess of 12% which is not sustainable. It needs to be pegged back
or you get a situation similar to the 1999/2000 tech bubble.
Don't forget that the Yuan is still pegged to the Dollar which
gives it an edge in the markets. Japan has been spending a fortune
trying to keep the Yen lower and Europe has been gnashing its teeth
over the high Euro which has been ham-stringing exports and dollar
earners.
When the elastic band snaps back on mining stocks and commodity prices
there's no telling how far it will twang.
All in my amateur economic humble opinion.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 02 May 2004 00:38
- 114 of 117
Melnibone, this may interest you.
I presume you are aware that I set my stop loss level to 1% below the S3 of a share when I purchase. If the S3 goes up so does the stop loss. If it goes down I do nothing.
Over the last 3 weeks, holding after holding has had the stop loss triggered. And nearly all of them are still trading below the price set. (With Wednesday, and Friday the largest number was triggered.) I have a few limit buys in place at really low levels but otherwise it looks like I'm going to stay in cash.
Do you think that the shares are telling me something that your charts have been hinting at?
I presume you are aware that I set my stop loss level to 1% below the S3 of a share when I purchase. If the S3 goes up so does the stop loss. If it goes down I do nothing.
Over the last 3 weeks, holding after holding has had the stop loss triggered. And nearly all of them are still trading below the price set. (With Wednesday, and Friday the largest number was triggered.) I have a few limit buys in place at really low levels but otherwise it looks like I'm going to stay in cash.
Do you think that the shares are telling me something that your charts have been hinting at?
jj50
- 02 May 2004 09:43
- 115 of 117
little woman, I am interested in your tactics. I have used your system for "blue chips" but I find if I do it with AIM shares, invariably they trigger when I don't want them to or if it is really bad news it goes straight through the stop loss and I am left holding the stock! I think the problem is with the spread. I run a parallel stock list to monitor what I have sold and how it has performed since and nine out of ten times it would have been better not to have sold, as they invariably come back up before I have had the opportunity to repurchase before the rise. I know I am holding too wide a selection of shares but felt it was a defensive tactic and financially it has worked well but I shall have to consolidate - apart from anything else, it is too time consuming!
little woman
- 02 May 2004 12:52
- 116 of 117
Stop losses & limit orders trigger at the spread, which is why you can't use the system with AIM (or any SEAQ) shares, as these shares trade within a wide spread, rather than at the narrow spread which you have with SETS shares.
I'm not going to put any new money in AIM shares. And if I can I'll try and reduce my holdings in these type of shares. The problems is if the market goes into free fall, and the SEAQ shares fall with it - it will be impossible to get out of these shares. I suppose it's just a case of being cautious until things settle down. Until the US elections later in the year, plus with the problems getting worse in the middle east, it may not be until the end of the year. But you never know, things may start looking better a month or two - and we'll all breathe a sigh of relief.
I'm not going to put any new money in AIM shares. And if I can I'll try and reduce my holdings in these type of shares. The problems is if the market goes into free fall, and the SEAQ shares fall with it - it will be impossible to get out of these shares. I suppose it's just a case of being cautious until things settle down. Until the US elections later in the year, plus with the problems getting worse in the middle east, it may not be until the end of the year. But you never know, things may start looking better a month or two - and we'll all breathe a sigh of relief.
Melnibone - 02 May 2004 18:49 - 117 of 117
Hi little woman,
I'm always wary on longs at the top of a range. That's why I
said I was looking to short indice pops. If you get a breakout
and the short goes against you, you usually get a retracement
as profit is taken and the old resistance is retested as a support.
Get a long go against you at the top of a range and it could take months or
years to come back to you, assuming your stop isn't triggered
in the meantime.
FTSE doesn't look that overvalued or weak to me. S@P seems to be in
a 1090/1160 range at the moment. So if Greenspan doesn't spook the
US next week, the S@P is near the bottom of its range and it may hold.
My P@F and swing charts are showing the US stuck in a range with no clear
trend signals so all we can do is trade the range until we get a breakout
and a trend in one direction or the other.
Sorry I can't be more decisive, but that's just the way I see it at the
moment.
Melnibone.
I'm always wary on longs at the top of a range. That's why I
said I was looking to short indice pops. If you get a breakout
and the short goes against you, you usually get a retracement
as profit is taken and the old resistance is retested as a support.
Get a long go against you at the top of a range and it could take months or
years to come back to you, assuming your stop isn't triggered
in the meantime.
FTSE doesn't look that overvalued or weak to me. S@P seems to be in
a 1090/1160 range at the moment. So if Greenspan doesn't spook the
US next week, the S@P is near the bottom of its range and it may hold.
My P@F and swing charts are showing the US stuck in a range with no clear
trend signals so all we can do is trade the range until we get a breakout
and a trend in one direction or the other.
Sorry I can't be more decisive, but that's just the way I see it at the
moment.
Melnibone.
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