.

this was to be expected after placing - fogl are only cheap if they find something other than water and preferably not gas - high risk punt especially with the argies breathing fire - dont laugh but the argie squid wars are just a start.....

& new shares represent 54% of existing shareholder base.........................

GAS is fine - Loligo is so big, over 10TCF is commercially viable for LNG.


If Loligo were gas all the way, by my calcs it would be :

Recoverable 33.61 TCF of gas and 1.25 billion barrels of condensate (P50 basis)

If Loligo top were oil of some 2.153 Billion recoverable barrels then the bottom could be gas with 18.2TCF of recoverable gas and some 677 million barrels of recoverable condensate (P50 basis).

Top Loligo is T1+T1 deep - bottom is Trig/Trig Deep and Three Bears.


So :

Top oil and bottom gas/condensate is commercial.

Top oil and bottom oil is commercial.

Top gas/condensate and bottom gas/condensate is commercial.

Top DRY and bottom oil is commercial

Top DRY and bottom gas/condensate is commercial

Top gas/condensate and bottom DRY is commercial


Oil is commercial / Gas is commercial if over 10TCF in size (recoverable)


So pretty much all combinations apart from DRY/DRY is commercial, and you can see why they wanted to drill the deep well, obvious really.

time will tell ..... the armchair experts from one camp or the other will be proved right

cynic

have a look on the Cove thread , names of bid company's.

will do - have followed that one idly from time to time

Doesn't Loligo look scrumptious :)



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Cairn interest in RKH according to DF (the man hated by many DES holders) at the Sunday Times.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-15/cairn-starts-talks-with-rockhopper-on-falkland-oil-times-says.html

Looks like trying to drum up sum industry interest ahead of the data room opening.

But Cairn confirmed interest in the Falklands will remove some of the discount applied to all Falklands companies, so lets hope there is some truth in it.

Loligo - 2nd biggest drill in the world.......... we know that chap, and why we hold loads of FOGL :)


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/britain-s-oil-grab-in-falkland-islands-seen-tripling-u-k-reserves-energy.html


Britain’s Oil Grab in Falkland Islands Seen Tripling U.K. Reserves: Energy

By Brian Swint - Jan 19, 2012 7:01 AM GMT+0700 .

Thirty years after Margaret Thatcher fought a 74-day war with Argentina over the Falkland Islands, the prospect of an oil boom is reviving tensions.

Oil explorers are targeting 8.3 billion barrels in the waters around the islands this year, three times the U.K.’s reserves. Borders & Southern Plc will drill the Stebbing prospect next month, one of three Falkland wells that Morgan Stanley ranks among the world’s top 15 offshore prospects this year. Meanwhile, Rockhopper Exploration Plc (RKH) is seeking $2 billion from a larger oil company to develop the Sea Lion field, the islands’ first economically viable oil find.

“The area is underexplored and highly prospective,” said New York-based Morgan Stanley analyst Evan Calio. “These could be like the high-impact wells in Ghana and Brazil a few years ago that opened up a whole host of basins.”

A major drilling success will further raise the political temperature as Argentina maintains its claim over the U.K’s South Atlantic territory, 300 miles (483 kilometers) from the Latin American coast. President Cristina Kirchner said Britain is taking her country’s resources, while Thatcher’s successor David Cameron yesterday accused Argentina of a “colonial” attitude that didn’t account for islanders’ rights.

The world’s largest oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc face a dilemma: whether the potential of a virgin basin outweigh the risk of a worsening international dispute. While producers with interests in Argentina, such as BP Plc, may be put off, others will want to participate, said Tim Bushell, chief executive officer of Falkland Oil & Gas Plc, who’s looking for drilling partners.

‘Sabre Rattling’

“Big oil companies are used to dealing with political risk, and bigger ones than some sabre rattling by Argentina,” Bushell said in a telephone interview, who decline to name the companies he’s talking to. “For every BP, there are other major companies that don’t have an interest in Argentina.”

The Falkland Island government, which manages the territory’s mineral rights for the 2,955 islanders, says the big producers are interested and talking to the companies already active in the region. Of the five U.K.-based explorers that have drilled or plan wells, the largest, Rockhopper, has a market value of 899 million pounds ($1.4 billion).

“The Falklands is at a stage where a big company can take a large share in what could be a big oil province,” said Stephen Luxton, the Falkland Islands’ director of mineral resources. “There is an active program of marketing by the companies here. There are discussions going on, though we can’t name names.”

Patagonian Squid

Falkland Oil & Gas plans to drill the Loligo prospect later this year, a well targeting 4.7 billion barrels of oil. Named after a Patagonian squid, it’s the second-most prospective well planned worldwide this year after one in Namibia, according to Morgan Stanley. The company’s Darwin prospect will follow and ranks sixth on the U.S. bank’s list.

Borders & Southern will start drilling the Darwin prospect by the end of January, which seismic surveys suggest may hold as much as 760 million barrels of oil and 3 trillion cubic feet of gas. Stebbing, the target of the company’s second well, may hold as much as 1.2 billion barrels.

Together, the four wells planned for the Falklands this year are searching for about 8.3 billion barrels of oil. The Jubilee field, which was discovered in 2007 and propelled Ghana into one of the world’s top 50 oil states, holds 370 million barrels of reserves. Brazil’s Lula field, drilled in 2006, holds an estimated 6.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

‘New Province’

“There could be significant volumes down there and it would open up a new hydrocarbon province,” Borders & Southern CEO Howard Obee, said in an interview. If our first two wells are successful, “we’d like to do a big drilling program, not only to appraise what we’d find but also drill up additional prospects. To do that, we’d need quite a bit of money.”

While the company will probably be able to sell more shares to determine the size of a discovery in this campaign, it may have to sell stakes in prospects to develop them, said Tracy Mackenzie, an analyst at broker Brewin Dolphin in Edinburgh. Borders & Southern holds a 100 percent interest in its fields.

Rockhopper says its Sea Lion discovery, made in 2010 and which may have more than 400 million barrels of recoverable oil, is commercial and will be developed. Chairman Pierre Jungels said last month that the company is showing drilling to potential partners. The company this month ended a 10-well campaign that lasted two years. It has $100 million in cash after raising 46.5 million pounds ($72 million) in a share placing in October.

Floating Production

That’s just a fraction of the $2 billion the company reckons it will need to get the oil to market. Developers will have to build a floating production and storage unit to load the crude on to tankers. Cairn Energy Plc, Premier Oil Plc and Noble Corp. may be interested in investing, Bank of America Corp. analyst Alejandro Demichelis wrote in a Jan. 16 note.

Spokesmen for BP, Shell, Premier and Cairn declined to comment on whether they’re interested in investing in the Falklands. Exxon and Noble Energy didn’t respond to e-mailed requests for comment.

All the supplies will probably have to come from Europe, about 8,000 miles away. The Falklands consist of two large islands and more than 700 smaller ones, home to the colorful penguins that give Rockhopper its name.

Argentina’s Invasion

Argentina maintains that its sovereignty over the Islands was interrupted in 1833, when British forces occupied the Malvinas Islands, expelling the Argentine population, an act to which the people and government of Argentina never consented. Thatcher sent a task force to retake the islands after Argentina’s military dictatorship invaded the territory on April 2, 1982.

Earlier drilling campaigns show the risk of failure in unproven oil provinces. Shell drilled on the northern side of the islands in the 1990s and found traces of oil before abandoning the prospect in 1998 as crude prices fell to around $10 a barrel. Interest in the region revived as oil prices rose higher than $100 a barrel, though Shell had disposed of its acreage.

Desire Petroleum Plc (DES), which has licenses adjacent to Rockhopper’s, drilled six dry wells in a failed campaign that ended in April. Argos Resources Plc, which also holds licenses in the region, decided not to use a rig after Rockhopper because it couldn’t raise enough money.

The global financial crisis has made it harder for oil explorers to borrow from banks and kept a lid on the amount companies can raise on the market. The oil and gas index of London’s Alternative Investment Market, where all five Falkland explorers are listed, fell 35 percent last year.

That leaves larger companies as the most likely sponsors in the region, and the government said some of them are already involved in talks.

“The majors are always going to be interested when a new basins come on the map,” Morgan Stanley’s Calio said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Will Kennedy at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net

A biggie getting involved would boost all Falklands companies :)

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/4073194/Warren-Buffett-tucks-in-with-520m-of-Tescos-shares.html

ONE of the biggest oil companies in the world is eyeing the Falklands.

Officials from American giant ANADARKO flew to Port Stanley for talks with ROCKHOPPER, the UK company sitting on an estimated 500million barrels of oil in the South Atlantic.

They met Rockhopper exploration chief Dave Bodecott yesterday.

A source said: "The Anadarko private jet flew in on Wednesday night."

Rockhopper hopes to team up with a big gun to develop its Sea Lion oil field.

Nice rise. Should be seeing spikes up now and then the retraces being purchased as stock moves from small holders and short term holders into long term hands.

Blackrock have purchased over 5% as per holdings RNS today.

Wonder if.............

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2088284/Tullow-teams-Shell-seek-oil-Atlantic-shares-pushed-lower-update.html


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Falklands Oil is getting its airtime now...... all helps.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84587166/

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At least its confirmed Credit Suisse are the ones keeping a lid on the share price, they are now down to below 6% with the late holdings RNS.

which of course implies that they feel overexposed and/or that the stock is too high a risk

And the reason Blackrock have gone over 5%?

I have bought in since the placing.

cynic is just being well, a cynic.

Blackrock purchased because they see great potential.

People buy and sell stocks all the time, as the RNS history of many stocks shows big funds selling just before massive rises........the simple fact is fund managers are no different to anyone else - they have no inside news and they sell if people want to withdraw money from the fund and if they have excess cash they buy.

What is says is some people want their money out of Credit Suisse and are forcing them to reduce holdings, to meet redemptions perhaps.

not at all; just stating the obvious ..... clearly b'rock have a different view for whatever reason

It's going to get interesting here...that's for sure and I'm getting my plan ready for playing these fabulous falkland wildcats !.....

FOGL has more cash than BOR.

FOGL is drilling 2 bigger prospects than BOR.

FOGL has more prospective resources than BOR.

And yet FOGL is half the market cap of BOR - which kind of suggests FOGL is grossly undervalued - but you get this condition when someone is selling. The overhang will clear soon and then the price will zoom.

Rig has arrived safely and is now east of the Falklands Islands in Falklands waters, in the Berkeley Sound.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=308243000&centerx=-57.76173&centery=-51.57527&zoom=10&type_color=9


So spudding of BOR's first well is now due very soon. Should BOR strike the impact on both BOR and FOGL will be immense (more so to BOR but in no small way to FOGL as well at this stage given their market cap is half of BOR at the moment).