TheFrenchConnection
- 29 Oct 2005 09:26
- 116 of 656
Amities / Havent really had the time to fully digest latest interims ; but numbers oten mean more than a plethora of plattitudes . Sometimes words are insufficient . And this is one of those occassions . And upon first glance the results seem yet another set of excellent interims. The numbers speak volumes . Oil at record levels in the futures market, of course has played a large role in such phenomonal increases in profit s . BUT regardless what short term analysts concentating on the "interspread day price" ,or "hi volume small movement day traders will " tell you , the oil revision trend is technically downwards BUT there definition of " SHORT " is no more than that . By that i mean no more than a day at a time : or at the very longest a matter of weeks . There exists to many variables to merit even slight optimism . And with good reason There are non. None whatsover . The hydrocarbon age is at best a future story of corruption and bribery and duplicity ; and , at worst yet another resource/ civil war . ... The Federal reserve seems to have deemed it appropraite to merely print cheap money to pay for this oil in order to feed and maintain " American Joes " appetite for even cheaper chinese imports like plasma tvs and all manner of electronic gizmos . The Fed Reserve are also hoping demand for oil from the likes of China will subside before Chinese exports via their electronics industry imports are effected . . As things stand Chinas purchasing of American Treasury bonds mean they own along with lndia almost 60% % of the American iindustrial infrastructure. Alarming some will think . But worse will follow when the spectre of hyperinflation rears its ugly head what with oil remaining at the $ 60 + P/bl.. Expensive oil spells expensive commodoties . ..By mid winter. l believe , when the likes of Norway and Russia and a number of other oil expo s are unable to drill i am absolutely convinced given the geopolitics of oil that oil chartists will stare at a chart with a vertical spike so severe that oil futures traders will require up to 50- 75 % margins . . A cliff face alarmingly vertical line . { even "sour" crude is unprecedented prices } To be fair , the Henry Hubb gas prices will fare much the same way . But as we all know JKX is every much a gas company as it is an oil player . Once the respective Ukrainian ministry lifts the ban on exports during the 4th quater ( as was recently indicated by the respective ministry . ) JXX will be entering the more lucrative markets of both France and Germany & Europe in general ; and undercutting with consumate ease the current Euro providers . Costs of operations in JKX are not even a fraction of their competitors.. . ,,But in spite of this JKX have prodeced yet another sterling set of results esp. when you consider most of 2004 and spring of 2005 JKX were invloved in not only re-entering well no. m201 and rectifying the aluvial waters seeping into the said mine , but management were likewise as busy on the aquasitional trail . More acreage in Eastern Ukraine .A stake in Turkey and more importantly in Bulgaria which despite global capacity of 95.22% in rig and infrastructure has a number of platforms available to those prepared to mine there ../. The only diaapointment being the non commercial strikes at Novo Nilolaevskoye but events more than compensated by the success of M150 , M204 and to a lesser degree at M203. What with a backdrop of success at thier acreage at the Molcheanoskoyes field and wellbores having been pressure tested and cleaned to a depth of over 3,000 in place at Rudenkovskoye { well 12 to be Skytop Brewster mined }. coupled with the fact drilling at both often forgotton Rosetta operated wells at the Deep Centre unit in the USA and have been completed { JKX have a 34.4%. stake ......ln addition the farming out to the Turkish oil compamy { TPAO } and the mighty BP to "lift" what satalite imageing and magnetic surveys coupled with potentially 3D seismics have all more than suggested could be up to 4/5 million bblsoe producer on the Western black sea shelf surrounding Turkey will eventually proove a top draw decision . { lf even only half as productive as the TPAO /BP j/v in the Eastern Turkish Black sea this Georgian black sea site could add sixty MMBL s to JKX coffers ...Now JKX 's interest of a mere 4% might not sound much ,But it could be as much as 40 million bbls which equates to phew !! Perhaps $100 mlln . Certainly a re rating and status among the elite FTSE 250 , or even te FTSE 100 ....My own studying of The Eliz. fields ,upon which the old Communist regime erratically mined ,and accorded it a P2 status , and completed 2D seismic juste before the wall came tumbling down makes it look like an obvious place to drill / workover. But for the communist regime with its both antiquted and poorly maintained infrastructure inflamed by soviet corruption this mine would have been highly successful field many years ago . . Now it will the most hightly productive venture yet taken on by JKX ..........With strong , determined and robust management and a highly paid work force hence a highly motivated worforce ,,,,and not overlooking the massive premium Glencarries paid Swiss traders in considerstion for thier holding ( believed to be between 180 and 200p ) i can see JKX sitting quite happily at 250p/ 275p by finals .......... .Bonne chance .../.....Sois sages ......@+ J........
Andy
- 02 Nov 2005 00:37
- 117 of 656
TFC,
As always an interesting post, and I agree JKX looks a good long term bet.
Glad to see we have recovered most of the recent loss, as I thought we had become oversold, given the recent results, and price expectations for oil and gas in the next year.
250p would be nice, and not improbable either IMO.
jumbo66
- 02 Nov 2005 15:45
- 118 of 656
[hd]
Andy
- 02 Nov 2005 19:02
- 119 of 656
Hey Jumbo!
Welcome!
Andy
- 03 Nov 2005 22:04
- 120 of 656
Another nice rise today, approaching the recent highs again now.
I think we are due more drill news soon, maybe that's why the price has recovered from the 180p low?
Andy
- 04 Nov 2005 13:13
- 121 of 656
Well there is news, but not quite what I expected, or hoped for.
A director has reduced some of his holding, 60,000, although he still holds another 200,000.
JKX Oil & Gas PLC
04 November 2005
SCHEDULE 11
NOTIFICATION OF INTERESTS OF DIRECTORS AND CONNECTED
PERSONS
1) NAME OF COMPANY
JKX OIL & GAS PLC
2) NAME OF DIRECTOR
BRUCE J. BURROWS
3) Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of
holding of the shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a
non-beneficial interest or in the case of an individual holder
if it is a holding of that person's spouse or children under the
age of 18 or in respect of an non-beneficial interest
DIRECTOR
4) Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the
number of shares held by each of them. (If notified)
N/A
5) Please state whether notification relates to a person(s) connected
with the Director named in 2 above and identify the connected person(s)
N/A
6) Please state the nature of the transaction. For PEP transactions
please indicate whether general/single co PEP and if discretionary/non
discretionary
DISPOSAL
7) Number of shares/amount of
stock acquired
N/A
8) Percentage of issued Class
N/A
9) Number of shares/amount
of stock disposed
60,000
10) Percentage of issued Class
0.040%
11) Class of security
ORDINARY 10p SHARES
12) Price per share
210.5p
13) Date of transaction
03-11-05
14) Date company informed
03-11-05
15) Total holding following this notification
204,396
16) Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification
0.135%
IF A DIRECTOR HAS BEEN GRANTED OPTIONS BY THE COMPANY PLEASE
COMPLETE THE FOLLOWING BOXES
17) Date of grant
N/A
18) Period during which or date on which exercisable
N/A
19) Total amount paid (if any) for grant of the option
N/A
20) Description of shares or debentures involved: class, number.
N/A
21) Exercise price (if fixed at time of grant) or indication that price
is to be fixed at time of exercise
N/A
22) Total number of shares or debentures over which options held
following this notification
N/A
23) Any additional information
N/A
24) Name of contact and telephone number for queries
SUE RIVETT 0207 323 4464
25) Name and signature of authorised company official responsible for
making this notification
BRUCE BURROWS
Date of Notification 04-11-2005
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
Andy
- 04 Nov 2005 14:56
- 122 of 656
Looks like the RNS stopped the rise in it's tracks.
Looks like the market had heard about the RNS, and ran it up in case there was some drilling news, which is what I was expecting to be honest.
Nice to be back at the 220p level, but I would like to see it break through and establish support here, rather than stop now, and possibly retrace.
TheFrenchConnection
- 05 Nov 2005 18:39
- 123 of 656
l dont know why but when FD s sell a chunk of a physical holding as opposed to say excercising an option/s by selling , i always get a little concerned . l agree the amount sold was negligible and declared during market hours. Probably to settle a messy divorce, or buy a holiday home. but unfortunately always gives the impression that being the Finance director he is selling for some nefarious reason. Has anyone noticed a player in the market who buys in tranches of 2,500 and 5000 all day long and aquires about 50/75k . JKX shoot up ,,,and then sells of 2,500 and 5,000 appear one after the other. .. Point being he is never wrong. l detected him at the 130 level. At the moment i juste follow him lol ,,,,,l know we will be 300p+ by finals .This period will be JKXs most intensive drilling period in thier history; plus any revenues from our 4% in the BP /Tpao JKX owned acreage in the black sea. A few more 5000+ bpoe p/d strikes and i cant see why we cant have an s/p nearer that of PMO than TLW ....JKX may briefly flirt with 200p again but ir certainly wont be for long . Always felt comfortable this stock ..@+ J .
Dr Square
- 10 Nov 2005 21:24
- 124 of 656
Sorry gents
anything in the amount of very small sells/buys going through today. Have never seen so many of the 2 figure amounts before.
regards
Thanks TheFrenchConnection for takeing the time to post very informative.
Andy
- 11 Nov 2005 00:02
- 125 of 656
Dr Square,
I see what you mean, 2 x 28, 62, 68, and an 85.
All AT, automatic trades.
I don't see anything negative about them, although I agree quite a few small trades in one day.
TFC,
Yes I think we may rise higher by the finals, and any new strikes of 5000 BOEPD will certainly push the price up IMO.
I see JKX as a longer term hold, certainly as long as oil and gas remain at these levels.
Andy
- 23 Nov 2005 16:43
- 126 of 656
Dr Square,
Well another high today, now a 6 bagger for me.
Amazing that an oil and gas stock, growing exponentially like JKX is, has zero interest on this BB!
Dr Square
- 23 Nov 2005 19:00
- 127 of 656
Hi Andy
Congratulations I hope you bought a shed load back at the start.
I to look at JKX and wonder at times. But it will never be a VOG from this point PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG. The other strange thing is people look at shares above and believe them expensive in comparison to a share in the pence range can not get my head round that. If the companys fundementals are right pay the money.
I hold three shares I am very happy with JKX being second to SEY but that is only because of the ground work I put in on SEY. As I go deeper into JKX I feel it is so undervalued through 2007. The market seems to be wakeing up to the drastic lack of Gas supply in Western Europe and oil still dominates the markets.
JKX is placed both to grow within the confines of what it has now in the context of oil exports and Gas price increases. They also have some very interesting E.P.
I have concerns over the political front? But I may be being to sensitive on this issue welcome your thought on this issue.
Off subject have you ever had a look at BLR would welcome any input good or bad on its prospects.
Lets hope we can ride the wave and get you a 10 bagger
Regards
Dr Square
- 23 Nov 2005 19:06
- 128 of 656
Dr Square
- 08 Dec 2005 17:03
- 129 of 656
Andy
Seems to me the pressure is building for JKX to have a move one way or the other.the Gas issue with Russia is reaching the end game.
How do you view it.
regards
Andy
- 31 Dec 2005 23:19
- 130 of 656
Russia - Ukraine on the brink tonight!
Last Updated: Saturday, 31 December 2005, 22:30 GMT
E-mail this to a friend Printable version
Ukraine gas cut 'will go ahead'
Gas supplies from Russia will end on Sunday, Gazprom says
Russian gas supplies to Ukraine will be cut at 0700 GMT on Sunday, state-owned firm Gazprom announced after last-ditch talks failed to settle a price dispute.
The row erupted after Ukraine rejected Russian plans for a 460% price rise.
Earlier on Saturday, Russia's President Vladimir Putin offered a three-month price freeze as long as Kiev agreed to pay the higher price after that.
But after fresh talks, Gazprom said the offer had been rejected by Kiev and supplies would end as planned.
Ukraine currently pays $50 per 1,000 cubic metres of gas, which Gazprom wants to increase to what it says is the market price of $230.
Russian supplies account for about 30% of total Ukrainian gas consumption.
The loss of those supplies will be a real problem in winter, says the BBC's Economics correspondent Andrew Walker.
Ukrainian gas industry officials say heating needs can be met from other supplies, but industrial customers might face reduced supplies, he says.
The crisis has also sparked fears that European Union supplies of Russian gas, which are transported through Ukrainian pipelines, could also be hit, although Russia has insisted this will not happen.
Putin offer
Mr Putin made his offer of a stay of execution at a meeting of his powerful Security Council attended by Gazprom head Alexei Miller.
"I instruct the government and Gazprom to ensure gas deliveries in the first quarter of 2006 with the conditions and rates of 2005, on the condition that before the end of today the Ukrainian partners sign the contract with Gazprom's offer for switching to market prices in the second quarter," he said in remarks broadcast by Russian TV.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov's spokesman said in response that Kiev did not object to market prices but "the exact figures must be negotiated".
Andy
- 02 Jan 2006 12:49
- 131 of 656
Looks like the game just got dirty!
Gazprom says blocking Ukrainian imports of Turkmen gas
MOSCOW (AFX) - Gazprom is blocking supplies of Turkmen gas destined for
Ukraine as they transit across Russia, said the state-owned gas giant's deputy
chairman Alexander Medvedev.
"The only gas passing through our pipelines (at present) is Russian gas for
exportation, not Turkmen gas," he told a news conference.
Gazprom will use "all resources at its disposal" to safeguard the
transportation of its gas exports to Europe, he added.
The company yesterday cut off supplies to Ukraine by reducing the pressure
into its main gas pipeline, in response to an unresolved dispute over price
hikes.
The move has left Ukraine largely dependent on gas imports from
Turkmenistan, which pass through Russia. Ukraine renewed its supply contract
with Turkmenistan in late at December.
Around a fifth of Europe's gas imports come from Russia along the Gazprom
pipeline, which splits off after entering Ukraine into smaller branches to
supply the Ukrainian network and western Europe.
Several European countries this morning reported that the pressure of gas
passing through the pipeline had fallen.
newsdesk@afxnews.com
afp/jms
COPYRIGHT
TheFrenchConnection
- 03 Jan 2006 16:54
- 132 of 656
Amities / A 10.71% gain on the day- 26.5 p ! !! Despite some quite large "sell" trades going through during the afternoon along with some silly ones the s/p appears to be holding up remarkably well . MMs seem very reluctant to drop the "offer" price below 270.{ and on a number of occassions have increased both " bid" and "offer " following a number of SELLS !! . A very similar trading pattern occured during what became known as "The Orange Revolution " but on a miniscule scale. . So whats going down here ? ? ....Accumulating for another party ?.Awaiting Ukranian news / developments which will impact on JKX s/p ? , Drilling news ( which we are due ) or as usual - plainly manipulating the s/p ? ..l strongly DOUBT the latter !! ...A lot of this is obviously related to the Russian / Ukranian gas scenario but i suspect there is another factor in play or otherwise all the largish "buys " would have been concentrated upon immediate inception of trading. . ....lronically the mileage of pipeline capable of carrying very heavy volume { 100,000bpoe pd }is greater in the Ukraine than any other state in the Balkans. The country is a labyrinth of pipelines. A spaghetti junction . lt has the capabaility to buy/sell its gas elsewhere if need be; and with USA foreign policy to build new bases in Rumania and Bulgaria and Georgia to protect Azeri , Armenian , Kazak and all oil produced in Caspian and Black sea countries it is little wonder the Ukraine is taking quite a bold step.lt is wrong for the media to suggest that the Ukraine are dependant on Russian pipes . Their is a document called "The Carter Doctrine " which sets down the rules in terms of an energy Chrisis such as this .Basically there are no rules except to protect the oil AT ALL COST ... . ,,,Politics aside ..... JKX look REALLY strong and very much demand again after being erroneously held back @ the 245 -50 level . ... Let the trend be your friend ,,,so they say . On the back of the unhedged oil produced by JKX alone i believe they will boast a 300p price tag very soon . lf our latest well proves to be a 3000 to 5000 bpoe we are in clover . News is due on a number of fronts ! Nice bit of biz with Ascent Res Bonne chance / bien amicalment et amusez-vous bien . a'bientot ,,,@+ J
TheFrenchConnection
- 03 Jan 2006 20:36
- 133 of 656
Rumours abound that following Tony Blairs recent meeting with JKX top brass along with the chairman of Naftogaz {NAK Naftogaz} ,and RD/ Shell were in advanced talks to aggresively engage themselves in exploration of over 30,000 sq.kms in the gas rich Dniepr Donets basin . Shells senior executive director for exloration and production , and active representative at the meeting ,Malcom Brindid, stated "potentially significant volumes of natural gas" were very strongly much in evidence based on data he had seen . Capital permitting , a j/v for JKX , with such illustrious names in the oil world as NAK and Shell would propel them into a new era eg -FTSE 350 constituients . After all . Lets face it .Does anyone seriously imagine Shell and NAK would interest themselves in acreage lest it was devoid of enormous potential which considering the price of gas amounts to very healthy returns , Or does anyone imagine that energy prices will fall ? . Thats a misnomer for a start. ..A mere few million quid return with a short well life would hardly make a difference to thier respective balance sheets . Both only cast a net over projects regarding returns of tens of millions with long well life .. . ...However this all pans out JKX are once again in a more than enviable position than ever before in thier short history . Or will Shell buy them ?? l hope not . . lt is no secret Shell want a heavy presence in this area but the roller coaster ride for JKX is only juste begining . Word among some quaters in the city is that JKX have already located a very optimistic lead but are keeping quite tacit until this business with Russia sorts itself out ; and in order to get the optimum price for the gas . Qui sait ? . . . .....Nice bit of Biz done with Ascent Resources with the latter farming into the non core Fiume Arrone project in ltaly with JKX having the leverage to negotiate from strength and ended up with quite a fiscally rewarding deal. Terms are very attractive . Also a second rig - a kremco 900- has been contracted from Jaslo of Poland to continue work at Poltava . Wells spudded in DEC / drilling news should be due very soon along with the annuals which i believe will surprise a great number of people. ......lf one of our newly spudded wells yields between 3000 and 5000 bpoe p/d we are truly in clover ..Of the oil juniors only Cairns has better fundementals . The likes of both BUR and DNZ and the vast army of oil juniors are nowhere near as attractive ! ......a'bientot ,,,Bonne chance ...@+ ..J
Andy
- 04 Jan 2006 00:18
- 134 of 656
TFC,
Good to see at least you noticed the 10% rise for JKX today!
Imagine if one of the 'promoted' shares had leapt 10%, how many posts there would have been?
Well it was nice to break out of the recent trading range with such aggression! I have been working all day so had no idea of the rise until 20:00 tonight, so quite a nice finish to a busy day!
I spoke to JKX this afternoon, and asked about the price they receive for their gas, and if there is a fixed or capped price.
The reply was that JKX supply the Ukranian market (not the government) at the prevailing iprice, and 'IF' the price of Russian gas were to increase, so would JKX's price for their gas.
I feel the annual results will surprise too, and am intending to top up before they are announced.
JKX now have two rigs onsite, and as you rightly say, if one were to produce a decent well now, we would truly be "in clover", and i'd probably be in the pub!
Dr Square
- 04 Jan 2006 08:15
- 135 of 656
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-01-04T075749Z_01_SCH148325_RTRUKOC_0_UK-RUSSIA-UKRAINE.xml
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia and Ukraine struck a five-year gas supply deal on Wednesday after a bruising pricing dispute in which Moscow curtailed deliveries, hitting supplies to European consumers.
Alexei Miller, chief executive of Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, told a news conference the deal was effective from January 1 and would be based on a price of $230 per 1,000 cubic metres.
"We have reached a final agreement. It is successful for Gazprom and we are satisfied," Miller told reporters after talks with Oleksiy Ivchenko, head of Ukrainian state energy company Naftogaz.
"This agreement will ensure stable supplies to Europe."
But Ivchenko said Ukraine would be buying gas at the Russian border at $95 per 1,000 cubic metres.
"We have reached an initially acceptable agreement which gives us the possibility to meet the gas needs of Ukraine and the transit of Russian gas to Europe," Ivchenko said at the news conference.
A Gazprom source said the $230 price would apply only to exports of Russian gas to Ukraine, up from $50 now. Under a complex deal, Ukraine would be able to buy gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, piped via Russia, at a cheaper price of $95 per 1,000 cubic metres.