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SEFTON RESOURCES INC - UNDERRATED OIL PRODUCER (SER)     

ptholden - 04 Aug 2006 19:53


???

Sefton Resources is an independent AIM quoted Oil and Gas company operating in the US. The companys principal current assets are two producing oilfields in California (Tapia Canyon Field and Eureka Canyon Field); it is also in the process of buying up prospective coal bed methane acreage (CBM) in Kansas.

Update from July 2007 AGM

Finance

I revealed in my annual statement that discussions were well advanced with
Banking institutions. The final phase of the agreement with a suitable bank
without complex and restrictive terms is now very near. This is weeks away
rather than months.

Oil

Oil production at Tapia has averaged 4,100 BO during the last five months. Which
is in line with last years levels. Once this finance is in place we will be able
to move ahead with drilling.

Drilling

We have stayed close to drilling contractors and we are ready to move forward
quickly when this finance is available.

Steam generation

The equipment is now in place at Tapia. Preparation time is needed to connect
the equipment and carry out the necessary trials required to get the main work
started. We anticipate this steaming will start in the next couple of months. If
successful a significant amount of oil resources will move into the Proven
Producing Reserves category.

Joint Ventures

Discussions continue with a number of interested parties to develop our Anderson
counties gas assets.

New finance team

A new CFO has been appointed with good knowledge and experience of the oil
industry. A new assistant to undertake all the daily needs has also been
appointed.


SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS:

Sefton has two oil fields, both producing. One is already profitable, and the other is breaking even. This should generate good cashflow for the company over the medium term.
Sefton owns 100% of both its major oil interests and is now demerging its non-controlled oil interests in order to concentrate on those where it has full control (Sefton has recently disposed of its Canadian assets for CDN450k cash).
Sefton is establishing a track record of using modern extraction technologies to improve the efficiency of its fields.

WEAKNESSES:

Sefton has suffered from a number of one-off factors. While these were out of the companys control the problems it has faced since 2002 have held back development and taken up management time. Investor disenchantment may account for the current low rating.

OPPORTUNITIES:

Sefton has acquired acreage for CBM (coal bed methane) in Kansas. CBM gas production is a thriving market and Sefton believes it has acquired the acreage at advantageous prices. While this is a longer term prospect it is an exciting one and could eventually eclipse the oil interests.
There are a number of other fields in the Ventura Basin and more generally in California as a whole that Sefton may look to target now its cash flows are stronger.
Eureka is a semi-exploration play which may contain further upside. This cannot yet be evaluated.
At this valuation the company may prove an attractive target for a larger player.

THREATS

Owing to its geographical location the company continues to be exposed to the threat of bush fires, canyon floods and geological interruption (earthquake risk). Sefton is taking steps to mitigate this risk by investing in Kansas and although Forest Basin area is susceptible to tornados - gas facilities have a minimal surface footprint.

LINKS:

Sefton Resources Web Site

Quarterly Update (Mar 08)

Operations Update Dated 14 January 2008

Hardman Report

Final Results - Year Ended 31 Dec 2006

2007 AGM & Update

In The News - Oil Barrel Dated 31 January 2007

Daily California Crude Oil Prices (MIDWAY SUNSET 13)

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SER&Si

aldwickk - 02 Nov 2007 12:25 - 1179 of 2350

But in SER case the market is awash with them.

SECRUOSER - 02 Nov 2007 13:12 - 1180 of 2350

Yes, historically there have been a majority of flaky PI's in this stock since the HB and CE emergency funding days 3-4 years ago. Thankfully since then more and more stock has found it's way into tighter hands. I've lost track of the number of people who claim to hold over 1m, or even 2m+. I myself hold 0.5m. A few dozen of these holdings and that's 30% of the issued stock accounted for. And people holding these sorts of amounts aren't the sort to bail out willy nilly - most have been accumulating patiently over the years with the intention of gaining significant profits.
I have also observed that in the last month or so as the newsflow has become more informative and frequent, and it is obvious that drilling and steaming are going to happen after all, the number of sellers is starting to reduce significantly.

SECRUOSER - 02 Nov 2007 14:34 - 1181 of 2350

Hopefully once the company shows it is making real progress with the drilling and the steaming programmes we will start to see institutional investors taking stakes here as they have done in many other small O&G companies.

capetown - 02 Nov 2007 16:05 - 1182 of 2350

I think they did the last time around,and all waiting to sell?

SECRUOSER - 02 Nov 2007 16:09 - 1183 of 2350

What do you mean capetown? As far as I know apart from the directors it is all PI\'s in this stock and it has never had any institutional investors.

halifax - 02 Nov 2007 16:19 - 1184 of 2350

Cant see many institutions buying into a company with a market cap <7million

SECRUOSER - 02 Nov 2007 16:25 - 1185 of 2350

You need to have a look around then halifax - there are loads of companies with similar market caps that have institutional holders, including in this sector. Just look at any random selection. Many institutions now have arms that specialise in small cap growth companies or a particular sector which will include small companies. There are also stand-alone small-cap and o&g investing institutions.

Institutions will only buy in though if a strong and clear strategy is presented going forward on the back of evident progress. The company will be able to present such a strategy to the outside world once the results of the forthcoming drilling and steaming are known.

And all being well, by that point, we will not be at a mere 6-7m market cap any more!

driver - 02 Nov 2007 16:33 - 1186 of 2350

halifax
You could be right, when it gets to 70m M/Cap they will want some not long now.

halifax - 02 Nov 2007 17:51 - 1187 of 2350

Like SER I hope you all keep pumping!

kkeith2000 - 02 Nov 2007 17:57 - 1188 of 2350

I always feel the last part of a journey is the hardest, the broken promiser's , the delays and anything else you can find, i have held these for nearly 2 years now and some maybe held longer, to be honest i maybe a fool for waiting so long, but i thought that was what the stock market was all about , Ive done my research so i will be sticking with it to finish the last part of the journey

capetown - 02 Nov 2007 18:15 - 1189 of 2350

SERCRUOSER,
Sorry,i was reffering to pi.

Mine Man - 05 Nov 2007 11:37 - 1190 of 2350

G'day all! Just back from Spain, had a panic, my laptop blue screened and I had to keep texting for share price movement! Nice to see a little interest today and a rise on the offer! I see there's a lot of damning the management again but I reserve judgement on that rig, not really into the cloak and dagger suppositions that the rig is already working with another operator etc etc. I think as suggested, whatever the delay, releasing details could well be price sensitive for the company who presently has it drilling. Bad news for us whatever the delay, but I would be very surprised if we did not get an RNS this week!

driver - 05 Nov 2007 16:34 - 1191 of 2350

The devils back 666, not you mm

SECRUOSER - 05 Nov 2007 23:39 - 1192 of 2350



Golden Cross just appeared

Mine Man - 06 Nov 2007 11:27 - 1193 of 2350

Just been listening to a strategist on the box, reckons oil will hit 100 dollars as early as next week!

SECRUOSER - 06 Nov 2007 11:29 - 1194 of 2350

Now we just need Sefton to hurry up and get this drilling and steaming started...!

(I will be surprised if there is no update this week).

driver - 06 Nov 2007 19:25 - 1195 of 2350

Hardman & Co 6/11/2007

Valuation
Our new valuation of the two major oil
properties, Tapia and Eureka based on the
revised engineering data a gives a core
conventional pretax NPV10 valuation of 10.1
pence/share ($US 24.1m) with an upside to
28.4 pence/share ($US 67m) assuming cyclic
steam and steamflood recoveries are
implemented This still excludes any value for
the CBM acreage and compares with a current
share price of about 6.2p.
Sefton is expected to be profitable this FY with
significant profits next year. Deliverability
which the market demands will be
demonstrated once rigs hit the subsurface.
Things are finally moving.
http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=80607&ID2=184206601&ssid=1&directory=12925&bm=0&filename=Sefton_Nov2007.pdf

Mine Man - 06 Nov 2007 19:26 - 1196 of 2350

Well, that makes my long forecasted valuation of 26p look about right now!

Mickey Take - 06 Nov 2007 19:27 - 1197 of 2350

The Hardman report is out,

driver - 06 Nov 2007 19:42 - 1198 of 2350

I gave a valuation last week with an upside to70m but that was in ''s not $'s so I was slightly out LOL.
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