Oilex’s US$23mln will kick start Indian exploration
Oilex is tipped to deliver substantial volume and cash flow growth over the next five to six years.
Stewart Dalby
10:34 27 Jul 2015
These are exciting times for Oilex (LON:OEX). The company’s recently announced a major US$23mln recapitalisation should be a significant step forward in a game-changing process for the ASX and AIM-quoted junior.
Oilex’s chief executive officer (CEO) Ron Miller said: “Proceeds of the share sale will be used to fund a ‘transformational’ work programme over the course of 2015 and 2016.”
London broker Westhouse’s oil and gas analyst Mark Henderson said that following the fund-raise and the earlier ‘proof of concept’ well success at the Cambay field, he now expects Oilex will deliver substantial volume and cash flow growth over the next five to six years.
He predicts Oilex can grow gross production from a standing start to 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent within this timeframe.
The proof of concept well Henderson refers to is the Cambay-77H well on the Cambay field in Gujarat state in energy-starved India.
This well came good last year. Cambay-77H was spudded in March 2014 and production testing was successfully completed late in 2014 with 43mln standard cubic feet of gas (mmscf) and 3,372 barrels of oil (bbls) sold to a local refinery.
It was a breakthrough well because it was unconventional and proved for the first time that fracking (fracture stimulation) and horizontal drilling could work in India.
This success followed a major drilling disappointment in 2012 that cast Oilex into a wilderness of a share price collapse and shareholder disenchantment.
The latest fund-raise involves an initial US$1.4mln (A$1.8mln) share placing to sophisticated investors that will provide a quick injection of capital.
A subsequent US$16.3mln (A$21.mln) transaction will see ASX-listed Zeta Resources take a 19.6% stake in an enlarged Oilex. Meanwhile existing investors also have the opportunity to subscribe for new shares via an underwritten US$5.3mln (A$7mln) rights issue.
New shares sold via the share placings are being priced at 2p (or 4.1 cents) whereas the rights issue works out a little bit more at 2.04p at a share.
The Cambay field was discovered and developed initially by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation of (ONGC) of India in 1957-58 and enjoyed modest production success before being shut-in in 1991.
Oilex became involved with Cambay in 2005 and by 2007 it held a 45% in the field stake and was the operator in a joint venture (JV) with the Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) which held the remaining 55%.
Oilex and GSPC completed five vertical wells and two vertical fracture programmes on the project.
Again, there was only modest production success, mostly from the first well, Cambay-73. This well’s target was the shallow Miocene basal sandstone.
But Oilex’s CEO at the time, Bruce McCarthy, believed the deeper tight Eocene zones could, with the aid of horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracking techniques that have revolutionised shale drilling in North America, yield many more barrels than were forthcoming from Cambay-73.
After indifferent results from the Cambay 74 and Cambay 75 wells the group decided to go for its first ‘proof of concept’ well and, in fact, the first horizontally drilled and fracked well in India, with the Cambay- 76H well.
McCarthy was ahead of his time. The well threw up a number of complications. Technical problems led to the well being suspended in May 2012. There was much talk that it was all very well fracking in the flat plains of Texas in the US but clearly more complicated in India. American geologists seemed to have a definite advantage in knowing about how fracking could work.
Miller, who is an American, became a director of Oilex in 2009 and eventually CEO in 2013. He determined he would bring some American fracking expertise to Oilex’s operations and the success of Cambay-77H was the result.
So, what are the next steps? A recent independent reserves report estimated that the Cambay project had some 43.3mln barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) which could be classified as proven and probable (2P) as well as about 177mmboe contingent resources.
The joint venture partners are fully funded to get cracking on their work programme, which includes two firm new wells, two contingent wells and five work-over wells.
Andrew Sinclair, the oil and gas analyst at PAC Partners, says in a recent note that now that processing facilities at Cambay-73 have been completed the vertically drilled well will be put back into production at a rate of between 50 to 60 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).
Also in the current quarter the Cambay-77H well will be tied-in to the low pressure gas pipeline. The work-over of existing wells will start in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2015.
The first of the new wells Cambay -78H will be spudded (the start of drilling) in Q4 2015 as will the second new well Cambay Cambay-80H.
All this should mean Oilex exits 2015 with production of 400 boepd, before output really starts ramping up in late 2016. Sinclair agrees that Oilex should be producing a multi-thousand barrels of oil equivalent within the next few years but, unlike Henderson at Westhouse, feels output over the period will amount to 90,000 boe rather than 60,000 boe (360mmcf gas).
Most of this will be gas, which is handy for cash flow as there is a strong local market. India is the world’s fourth largest energy consumer. Gujarat is an industrialised state with existing energy infrastructure and strong local demand for gas.
A gas deficit (India imports 30% of its gas) ensures that OiIex will achieve a price premium for the gas it delivers at around US$8 + per million British thermal units (mmBtu) versus a government pricing policy of US$5 per mmBtu.
The cost of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) is US$8.50 to US$10 per mmBtu, effectively providing a floor price for domestic gas sales.
PAC says Oilex’s shares are very high risk, but has set a risked net asset value (NAV) based target price of A$0.09 (4.28p). This is more than double the current share price of A$0.04 (1.90p).