http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

What you must consider is the Westhouse broker note (copied part below) is based only on Sea Lion and Ernest, and although they say the top level is unlikely, it now seems Sea Lion is at the top level (giving 1550p) and so if Ernest comes home too you get well over 2000p.




However -

Sea Lion being a success brings two other prospect which are considered analogues of Sea Lion well into play. This is "Stephens" and "Fox" which total another potential 400M barrels recoverable. That is not in any calculations....... :)

Back in time, this from Sept 2009, just in case people forget that RKH already has a gas discovery on its books and one which is now in the CR categorization.

At least it mentions the other prospects and also you must like the "bold" highlighted part.

Notice how big initial estimates are for "Stephens" and "Fox" (OOIP 479 & 352), these are the two analogues of "Sea Lion" and which must now be considered very much higher CoS due to "Sea Lion" success.


http://www.offshore247.com/news/art.aspx?id=14824

Falklands gas discovery declared

Published 24.09.2009 13:41:21 by John Bradbury

One of the wells drilled off the North Falklands Islands back in 1998 has since been declared as a gas discovery and the owner of the licence Rockhopper Exploration has signalled that there is a very real chance of new drilling in the region early next year.

Rockhopper's upbeat assertion about the prospects for drilling in the North Falklands Basin come after an independent competent persons report (CPR) by RPS Energy decided that the Johnson prospect drilled with the 14/5-1 well could contain contingent resources of 7.9 Tcf of recoverable gas reserves.

And Rockhopper chairman Pierre Jungels declared in the company's interim results statement today: Although many issues need to be resolved, we have within our grasp a very real prospect of participating in a multi-well campaign in 2010 and wee are hopeful of reporting significant news from that campaign throughout the year.

The 14/-5-1 well was drilled by Shell in the Falklands back in 1998, and, according to Rockhopper, targeted a relatively shallow oil prospect in the centre of the North Falklands basin. While some oil was encountered at this shallow level, a thick gas-prone interval was found at deeper levels in the well, where no closure had ever been mapped, Rockhopper said.

Despite identifying 165 m (541 ft) of net gas pay in the well, effectively confirming a discovery, Shell relinquished the acreage as the prevailing oil price was only US $10 per barrel and gas in the South Atlantic was of little or no value at the time, Rockhopper stated in its interim report, explaining why Shell walked away from the find.

Subsequently after acquiring the acreage, Rockhopper carried out a 850 sq. km 3D survey during 2007 which was designed to better image the deeper parts of the basin and this work led to interpretation of a previously unseen structure, called Johnson, which extends over 200 sq. km and was drilled down dip by the 14/5-1 well.

RPS Energy has carried out the CPR for Rockhopper and has considered a total of eight oil prospects which together are estimated to contain 1 Bn bbl of prospective oil.

And the top two prospects, Sea Lion and Ernest have been given a high 23% chance of drilling success.

The others are Jason, Fox, Stephens, Chatham, Berkeley, and Weddell and Stoiip (stock tank oil initially in place) for those has been put at 700 m, 479 m 352 m, 93 m, 173 m and 441 m bbls. Taken together, all of these, according to the CPR could contain 3.3 Bn bbl of oil, based on a best estimate figure from RPS Energy.

it's good to see sp continuing to tick higher, though i have concerns that purchases are modest volumes, implying that this is just late lemmings hopping on board to see if there is any rotting flesh (or young babies!) left to chew on

cynic sp moving up in anticipation of startling news next week.

Froth

that is also my concern, though if it is truly good news, which is just about odds-on i think, then blackdown's acerbic "froth" will prove to be a very wrong call

The fact that everybody is expecting something big soon, makes me think that it is already partly or mostly in the sp....without a full test they can only guess as to the size of the reservoir.....so I would expect the rns to say : 400 million barrels or so and perhaps more.....but needs further drilling to confirm....so : sp up by 30 or 50p followed by profit taking and back down to 170p or so....I'm not saying this is going to happen but it could !...

So are you in or out, rf, or are you not so sure? ;o)

I'm in....and wished I had not dumped my holding half way up.....pondering whether to get more...but this is very early days for the "falkies".....and extracting costs will be astronomical.....we must not forget that...

and the oil price may settle at around $70/75 per barrel

Very short rant - How come the oil price moves down $17 (20%) yet pump price only moves 2-3p (2%)? That seriously p*sses me off!

DES should move up a little on RKH results, rf. Maybe worth having a few of those for a short term gain?

In that one as well....in all 4 at the moment.......it takes 2 weeks for a tanker to come from Nigeria to the UK......crude futures bought 2 weeks ago for arrival...in the UK 2 weeks later....that sort of thing...so the price at the pumps is delayed, problem is that the retailers keep the price up...and it goes up much quicker than it comes down....

so mr blackdown, do i take it that you have a (un)healthy short position, or is it just sour grapes that you do not hold?

harry - very simple; $ is relatively strong, so crude "appears" to fall; gold usually follows suit, but with current world economic uncertainty, that is holding up .... imo, "natural" level for crude (nymex) remains at $75/85

cynic you appear to have hit a nerve with some bloggers who have "burnt shorts", sp at 250p!

Rumours only, but news of lab test results good & recoverable reserves figure c300mb/o.

Harry if this rumour is based on fact then we should get a RNS pretty soon.

that's a shame ..... at least if i cock up, i own up!

if c300mb, what is fair value, given that the stuff is still in the ground, but ernest still to drill?

hali - you're a far better judge than me at that sort of thing, so what's your view?

========

btw, volume really not very heavy at 2.5m traded so far

cynic there are so many calculations/assumptions that could be made if this rumour is accurate, but back of the envelope guesses suggest the market cap should be around 800m which should mean an sp about 400/450p.

so would you disagree at say +/-325 being fair value at this juncture + perhaps 50 for blue sky on ernest?