http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

that is also my concern, though if it is truly good news, which is just about odds-on i think, then blackdown's acerbic "froth" will prove to be a very wrong call

The fact that everybody is expecting something big soon, makes me think that it is already partly or mostly in the sp....without a full test they can only guess as to the size of the reservoir.....so I would expect the rns to say : 400 million barrels or so and perhaps more.....but needs further drilling to confirm....so : sp up by 30 or 50p followed by profit taking and back down to 170p or so....I'm not saying this is going to happen but it could !...

So are you in or out, rf, or are you not so sure? ;o)

I'm in....and wished I had not dumped my holding half way up.....pondering whether to get more...but this is very early days for the "falkies".....and extracting costs will be astronomical.....we must not forget that...

and the oil price may settle at around $70/75 per barrel

Very short rant - How come the oil price moves down $17 (20%) yet pump price only moves 2-3p (2%)? That seriously p*sses me off!

DES should move up a little on RKH results, rf. Maybe worth having a few of those for a short term gain?

In that one as well....in all 4 at the moment.......it takes 2 weeks for a tanker to come from Nigeria to the UK......crude futures bought 2 weeks ago for arrival...in the UK 2 weeks later....that sort of thing...so the price at the pumps is delayed, problem is that the retailers keep the price up...and it goes up much quicker than it comes down....

so mr blackdown, do i take it that you have a (un)healthy short position, or is it just sour grapes that you do not hold?

harry - very simple; $ is relatively strong, so crude "appears" to fall; gold usually follows suit, but with current world economic uncertainty, that is holding up .... imo, "natural" level for crude (nymex) remains at $75/85

cynic you appear to have hit a nerve with some bloggers who have "burnt shorts", sp at 250p!

Rumours only, but news of lab test results good & recoverable reserves figure c300mb/o.

Harry if this rumour is based on fact then we should get a RNS pretty soon.

that's a shame ..... at least if i cock up, i own up!

if c300mb, what is fair value, given that the stuff is still in the ground, but ernest still to drill?

hali - you're a far better judge than me at that sort of thing, so what's your view?

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btw, volume really not very heavy at 2.5m traded so far

cynic there are so many calculations/assumptions that could be made if this rumour is accurate, but back of the envelope guesses suggest the market cap should be around 800m which should mean an sp about 400/450p.

so would you disagree at say +/-325 being fair value at this juncture + perhaps 50 for blue sky on ernest?

cynic until we get a confirmatory RNS we are still in a heads or tails situation if the news is good sp shoud be 400p+ if the news is not good or ambiguous sp could fall below 100p.

170M barrels is said by the analyst at Oriel to be worth 600p a share.

So circa 300M barrels would be around 1000p a share, in the ground basis at around 8$ a barrel.

Throw on a 30% discount to that so 700p.

Then there is 90p a share of cash PLUS Ernest to drill PLUS derisked other prospects given success at Sea Lion PLUS Johnson gas discovery PLUS......just keep plussing....

Rumours were also doing the rounds in the city this morning that BP might be running their eyes over RKH if the GoM is blocked off it would be a natural replacement for exploration.

This appears to be more wishful thinking than hard rumour.

what is "hard rumour"?

thanks hali ..... i think the news would need to be pretty disastrous for sp to fall TO 100, but may well fall BY 100 if news is not good and solid