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Victoria Oil & GAS THE BIG ONE (VOG)     

niceonecyril - 24 Jul 2005 15:48

"> Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=VOG&Si
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381032
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381151
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/final-results/201310250700053729R/

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VOG is presently drilling Well 104 in its West Medvezhye field,and expected to reach depth in 4 weeks from spud date of 30th June, that makes 27th July(this week).
Results of testing will be sometime mid/late August, with a positive outcome
it could be HUGH.
With estimates of 134BILLION cubic metres of GAS and 201 Million barrels of Gas
Condensate,it will be a Company Maker. The field is in the area of the largest gas field in the WORLD.
Other assets include Kemerkol in Kazakhstan, with C1 reserves of 8.7MBO
and C2 reserves of7.8MBO. Another acquistion is Tamdykol with potental
reserves of 34MBO, it also has interest in 2 blocks in the North Sea.
You can check it out on www.uk-wire.com, and its own site of www.victoriaoilandgas.com.
It has excellent management team led by Kevin Foo, who hopes to turn it into
a Mid Cap Company(�500m+) in the not to distant future.
As i stated earlier in the post, Drilling is almost complete so it won't be long to Lift Off?
Well, Well worth checking out.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111040700164867R

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111290700139263S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112200700132888U
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201207090700051587H
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/rsm-default/201401130700074445X/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/interim-results/201402280701321590B/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/CompData.aspx?code=VOG&tab=announcements

cynic - 07 Sep 2006 15:59 - 1194 of 2511

and as we speak, profit taking is bringing the price back close to that 98/100 level

Strawbs - 07 Sep 2006 16:01 - 1195 of 2511

Might have something to do with it: Statement Re Price Movement

Strawbs.

silvermede - 07 Sep 2006 16:04 - 1196 of 2511

RNS just out has put the dampner on the SP rise:

Victoria Oil & Gas PLC
07 September 2006


Victoria Oil & Gas Plc

7 September 2006

Statement regarding share price movement

The Board of Victoria Oil & Gas Plc notes the recent share price rise and
announces that it is currently at an advanced stage of negotiations for the
provision of convertible debt finance for its drilling programme for the next 12
months.

A further announcement will be made when appropriate.

cynic - 07 Sep 2006 16:11 - 1197 of 2511

RNS is interesting, but surely attaching it to "notes the recent price rise" is something of a non seq?

skyhigh - 07 Sep 2006 16:17 - 1198 of 2511

perhaps VOG felt that peeps were thinking that there was going to be a much more exciting reason for today's sp rise so they wanted to dampen down the speculation if you see what I mean ... looks as though it worked !

Peter123 - 07 Sep 2006 16:22 - 1199 of 2511

it sounds a good for the lender if they decides on it. It creates a win win situation for them. Any thoughts??

silvermede - 07 Sep 2006 16:25 - 1200 of 2511

Surely CONVERTIBLE debt finance negotiations will be share price sensitive, with VOG wishing to have a greater significant future upside in SP to make it more attractive to the financiers to close the deal. WDIK

cynic - 07 Sep 2006 16:27 - 1201 of 2511

i agree, but they can't admit any "requested" ramping, so still a strange linkage ..... more interesting fro chartists is that it looks very much as if sp will close back above 100 (forget close of biz auction shenanigans) having dropped back to 94/95

soul traders - 07 Sep 2006 17:03 - 1202 of 2511

"Surely CONVERTIBLE debt finance negotiations will be share price sensitive, with VOG wishing to have a greater significant future upside in SP to make it more attractive to the financiers to close the deal. WDIK"

Silvermede, I'm not quite sure I follow your post #1200. The conversion price will likely be in excess of anything that has been seen so far - 300p wouldn't surprise me. VOG is not going to give away shares cheaply in a convertible bond deal unless the bonds carry a significant risk of the issuer defaulting, in which case that would imply on a risk basis that neither the bonds nor the shares would be worth much anyway. As far as getting institutions to lend money, i.e. buy the bond, the conversion price has to be geared so as to appear to be attainable within the lifespan of the bond and, as I think you're getting at, with enough residual upside to make the shares worth holding.

Given that we have already seen what this stock is capable of (i.e. 270p or so), I think the conversion price is going to be a lot higher than the current SP or its highs over the last year, hence my suggestion of 300p. Lenders would still get a good deal, as they are able to collect interest payments for as long as they hold the bond and can then convert and sell the stock when they feel the time is right. Assuming that VOG could one day be worth 1 billion, that should be any easy 600 or 700p per share even allowing for dilutions.

Apologies if I've told you a load of things you already know. SBE used to do a lot of convertibles, so I've seen a few of them already (as well as dealing with the odd one or two at work), but I'm sure there are many who haven't.

silvermede - 07 Sep 2006 17:48 - 1203 of 2511

ST, thanks, I was just speculating on why VOG should make an announcement which inevitably impacted upon the SP. The greater the likely upside in future SP then the easier it should be to close the deal, that's all really. But as you say its all relative and today's movement is just peanuts in the grand scheme of things. Sounds like a WIN WIN situation for the financier(s) provided VOG deliver.

rayrac - 07 Sep 2006 17:55 - 1204 of 2511

They, the financiers, must know they are not betting on thin air. Directors and financiers must talk to each other about prospects and not about the weather!

soul traders - 07 Sep 2006 17:55 - 1205 of 2511

Financiers always win. :o)

I think VOG felt obliged (and may even have been due to AIM regs or something) to release today's RNS in order to be seen to be doing the right thing by their shareholders. Too much volatility could have been a bad thing, especially if they are negotiating the convertibles right now.

cynic - 07 Sep 2006 21:10 - 1206 of 2511

rayrac .... talk about prospects for sure, but do not confuse prospects with actuality .... no prospecting company drills holes for fun, but i bet the % of commercially productive strikes is little more than 20% if that

pisces - 08 Sep 2006 08:23 - 1207 of 2511

cynic hi,a few more days at these levels and rising volumes we may see 1.20 very soon, what do you think.

cynic - 08 Sep 2006 08:28 - 1208 of 2511

hard to say, but good to see the upward momentum intact this morning ...... my own view is that VOG will indeed come good, but that is (illogically) tempered by the hammering i took when the sp collapsed a couple of months back ...... sold out and then bought back in when they looked to be recovering .... total greed and stupidity! ... hey, ho; that's history

hlyeo98 - 08 Sep 2006 11:09 - 1209 of 2511

I was a fool to buy at 112p this morning...it is only up 1p at 101p now

Peter123 - 08 Sep 2006 11:43 - 1210 of 2511

Patience is needed. I bought in at 110p

pisces - 08 Sep 2006 15:28 - 1211 of 2511

don`t know what anyone else thinks but now the 2x200000 trades have been absorbed the price is rising again,could they have been holding it back?

cynic - 08 Sep 2006 16:53 - 1212 of 2511

good solid end to the week ..... some think 98 the resistance/support others 100 .... either way, sp finishing at 106 is good enough for me ..... just may top up

soul traders - 08 Sep 2006 18:50 - 1213 of 2511

You may top up, Cynic? What was that you said earlier about "total greed and stupidity"?

:o)

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