.

The "discretionary well" in the Noble farm out RNS could well be the 3rd drilling slot (5th of the 4 firm +1 option), which is an option but will be very high cost now - the day rate will be much higher and so perhaps why 45% Noble - they would have to stump up a bigger portion if they wish to have it drilled so that FOGL end up paying in effect the same day rate as now, Noble take the hit for the premium price. The option slot (the 5th well) is still there but the rig operator has demanded a high premium if FOGL or BOR want to use it. It expired (from the original deal) and then it was re-granted at a much higher rate and is still open if someone wants to pay the premium to drill a 5th well.

Why ?

Well the Oil Barrel article ( http://www.sparkstrader.com/oilbarrel-falklands-oil-and-gas-fogl-farm-in-review/ ) suggests that Noble are interested in the Mid-Cretaceous prospects, whether that is correct or not I do not know as it appears FOGL kept them out of the Tertiary at Loligo and Nimrod as FOGL wanted to retain the lions share given all the work they have done.

But if we take that theory forward there is a rather mammoth (bigger than Loligo) mid-cretaceous target sat there called Diomedia. It is potential 5.3 billion recoverable barrels P50 (from OIP of circa 17.5 billion barrels). Its the big orange lead in the middle of the pic below.



As far as I know - and I do not know completely, it was deemed too deep (under sea bed) for CSEM and therefore FOGL ignored it for the first drilling round as they wanted only CSEM positive targets and anything deemed "too deep" or "negative CSEM" was ignored.

Now, with a 5.3 billion P50 recoverable potential down there called Diomedia - which is bigger than Loligo of FOGL or Nimrod of CHAR, you can see the attraction for Noble to pay a premium and stick the drill in it and give it a poke.

They will of course probably wait for Scotia results - they will want to see good reservoir sands in the mid-cretaceous (as per Toroa results) and also gas/oil there - so I would take a guess that discretion will be used, they may start working on well design etc... now, such that they can submit and make a snap decision yes or no the moment they have information from Scotia drilling.

It may also not be Diomedia, there is another mid-cretaceous lead close to Scotia, its the 1.3 billion barrel recoverable P50 potential Hersilia (to the left of Scotia), or it could be the mid-cretaceous lead Hero (to the south of Scotia) at a mere 1.1 billion barrels potential recoverable P50.

Pro , well researched as always ! The out look for FOGL long term is simply Staggering !!!

i know i'm very boring and repetitious but really only in the cause of trying to get everyone to take a reality check .....

oilbarrel to my mind has little credibility as it seems to be uncritical and just a self-serving advertising platform

and again, MrP's post is littered with hypotheses and similar - as indeed it has to be as there is absolutely nothing certain at all as to what might or might not be found by fogl on this drilling campaign

i too hope that is very successful, but i still maintain that the chances of it being so remain at no better than 5/1 against - i.e. a typical industry average ..... indeed, there remains a strong argument that the odds are considerably longer than that

Loligo, Garrodia and Nimrod were the very best of the CSEM responses, the very highest levels and its no wonder the farm out deal specifically removed Loligo and Garrodia/Nimrod complex from the agreement.

Loligo and Nimrod were the very top level CSEM response - and so very valuable - a price perhaps Noble were unwilling to pay for a virgin drill area.




.

Hey, for how long have I been 'squelched'?? I just realised it now

Not long enough, obviously a bit slow on the uptake!!..

Been a good day for clearing out the weak after the earlier rises. Certainly is a buyer in the background accumulating and letting people sell into gradually rising prices.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Suppose, maybe, if, perhaps..............

Only another 60 days to go of this stuff.

then the pp lemmings reach the edge of the cliff.........

hey, you guys ...... i got berated only the other day for being nasty to MrP

But we've been squelched and you are still one of the chosen few.

all us jews are of the chosen few!

wasn't that what the nazis used to say or was it the scots?

Edited today (Thurs at 0825 hrs) due to my mis reading of the meaning of Halifax's last post.

I took the meaning to be the Nazis refering to the Jews re how the Jews were chosen for the death camps, and was suprised that he could put such a post.

Having re-read the post, I realise the intended meaning, which was obvious.

Talk about putting 2+2 together and getting 5.

So humble apologies to Halifax!

the nazis reckoned they were "die Herrenrasse" (the Master race) and the Scots were always "also rans"

Looking at Noble energy you do see a lot of positives. The development of Tamar and Leviathan, the world's two largest deepwater gas finds. Deepwater drilling Gulf of Mexico (double the water depth of the Falklands areas). Their production activities began with a 34 percent working interest in the Alba field, offshore Equatorial Guinea. In addition to natural gas and crude oil production, related operations include an LPG processing plant where liquids are recovered and a methanol plant. Natural gas produced from the field is sold to the LPG and methanol plants as well as a third-party LNG facility. Their first operated major project in West Africa, Aseng, came online in late 2011 and they expect to bring the next project, Alen, to production in late 2013. And its West Africa I think that draws their attention to the Cretaceous area's of FOGL's licenses.

Add this on to Edison SPA, who are also leaders is developing gas, LNG etc.. and you now have 2 heavyweights in gas on board with FOGL, and no its not surprising given the 25 TCF recoverable potential of Loligo.

But, going back, its West Africa I think that draws Noble Energys' attention to the Cretaceous area's of FOGL's licenses, as West Africa and East Falklands used to be one..........many many years ago.

Noble have had a lot of success in West Africa, and West Africa is analogous to the Cretaceous of the East Falklands, Noble could really be a key here in developing the Cretaceous plays, starting with Scotia.

The Tertiary plays are analogous to the Campos Basin in Brazil, not an area of expertise for Noble but one which a lot of effort has been put into by FOGL.




Its also worth highlighting again at this stage the big differences between BOR's and FOGL's license areas. BOR were drilling the fold belt - high pressure was a very real risk. FOGL are not drilling any high pressure or high temperature wells. They are drilling well away from the hot spot area, which makes migration risk higher, but pressure and overcooking risks very much lower.

Its also interesting if you take GREEN in the above as FOGL's estimates of GAS, and YELLOW in the above as FOGL's estimates of OIL - well, look at Darwin, FOGL marked it as gas (gas condensate) long before the drill bit found gas (gas condensate).

Its going to be interesting to see if their expectation of GAS upper at Loligo and OIL lower is going to proven correct, would be lovely to a circa 10TCF to 12TCF recoverable gas find in the upper before the drill bit goes further down to check for any oil below.

i see toroa is marked in yellow, but wasn't that a total duster? ...... as i keep saying, none of these companies intentionally drills for sand, but all the seismics and every other bit of research under the sun can give no more than a "let's hope" chance, and that is being generous

Toroa had a 3.7% chance of success.

A well had to be drilled by late 2010 to comply with the license terms. The Ocean Guardian rig could only drill Toroa (very shallow water like North Falklands).

So Toroa had to be drilled. It was a duster pretty much as expected, but it meant the license terms were complied with and so it served its purpose.

fair comment other than your pretty pic implies that it should have held rather a lot of oil
wasn't scotia a duster too, or does my memory play me false?

Scotia is to be drilled after Loligo.

No drills have ever been done in the deeper southern basin. Toroa was a shoreline well, only 600 meter water depth and it basically found what you expect at shoreline, and thats coal.

Deep water is a different thing, thats gas or oil.