What does anyone think about this share in the short term?

Rise to 685?

Seems to be a good trender !

I never buy from anyone at the door unless they were prior invited. I've just signed up for my very first pension through work! Makes me feel old.

Sold out this morning, for a 1pt profit on my remaining position.

ouch!!!!!!!!!!

StockMarketWire.com
Provident Financial ditched its interim dividend after reporting its collections performance is currently running at 57% versus 90% in 2016 and sales were some £9m per week lower than the comparative weeks in 2016.

The extent of this underperformance and the elongated period of time required to return the performance of the business to acceptable levels invalidates previous guidance.

The pre-exceptional loss of the business is now likely to be in a range of between £80m and £120m.

The new home credit operating model, which involves employing full-time Customer Experience Managers (CEMs) to serve customers rather than using self-employed agents, was deployed on 6 July 2017.

This followed a period of higher operational disruption than planned between the announcement of the proposed structural changes on 31 January 2017 and deployment of the new operating model.

The impact of higher than expected agent attrition and reduced agent effectiveness on collections performance and sales resulted in the announcement on 20 June 2017 that forecast pre-exceptional profits from CCD would be reduced to around £60m.

The primary objectives set for the third quarter of 2017 were to embed the new operating model and to progressively restore customer service and collections performance to acceptable levels in preparation for the seasonal peak in lending during the fourth quarter.

The rate of progress being made is too weak and the business is now falling a long way short of achieving these objectives.

Collections performance and sales are both showing substantial underperformance against the comparable period in 2016.

The routing and scheduling software deployed to direct the daily activities of CEMs has presented some early issues, primarily relating to the integrity of data, and the prescriptive nature of the new operating model has not allowed sufficient local autonomy to prioritise resource allocation during this period of recovery.

In response, a thorough and rapid review of home credit's performance is underway to secure the turnaround of the business.

The trading performance of Vanquis Bank, Moneybarn and Satsuma remain in line with internal plans.

Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) investigation into Vanquis Bank's Repayment Option Plan (ROP)

Vanquis Bank is co-operating with an investigation by the FCA into the ROP ancillary product. ROP currently contributes gross revenues, before impairment and costs, of approximately £70m per annum.

The FCA indicated that it has concerns about the ROP product and is investigating the period from 1 April 2014 to 19 April 2016.

Vanquis Bank agreed with the FCA to enter into a voluntary requirement to suspend all new sales of the ROP in April 2016 and to conduct a customer contact exercise, which has now been completed.

Vanquis Bank has also agreed with the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), pending the outcome of the FCA investigation, not to pay dividends to, or enter into certain transactions outside the normal course of business with, the Provident Financial Group without the PRA's consent.

2017 DIVIDEND
In view of the substantial deterioration in the trading performance of the home credit business, together with the uncertainty created by the FCA's investigation at Vanquis Bank, the Board has determined that the group must protect its capital base and financial flexibility by withdrawing the interim dividend declared on 25 July 2017 and indicate that a full-year dividend is unlikely.

Protecting the highly valuable franchises of Vanquis Bank, Moneybarn and Satsuma is the Board's first priority whilst the turnaround of the home credit business is secured and the FCA's investigation is concluded.

The Board remains strongly committed to the payment of future dividends and delivering long-term value to shareholders.

MANAGEMENT CHANGES
In the circumstances, Peter Crook has decided to step down as Chief Executive with immediate effect. Manjit Wolstenholme will assume the role of Executive Chairman.

Manjit Wolstenholme commented:
"I am very disappointed to have to announce the rapid deterioration in the outlook for the home credit business.

"Protecting the group's capital base through withdrawing the interim dividend and in all likelihood the full-year dividend is the appropriate response to maintain the highly valuable franchises of Vanquis Bank, Moneybarn and Satsuma.

"My immediate priority is to lead the turnaround of the home credit business."

Not a good read with no recession in sight!!!!!

RBC note today:
"The Executive Chairman (previously: Non-Executive Chairman) will stay as long as required to stabilise the business. The CEO (Peter Crook) has left the business with immediate effect.
The FCA investigation into Vanquis Bank: today was the first day that the company disclosed this to the market, despite the company knowing about it for some time. The company did this in order to put the withdrawal of the dividend and the likelihood of no final dividend “in context” with the issues PFG is experiencing in its consumer credit division. Given that the FCA investigation has the potential to be material to the company, investors are likely to take the view that this investigation should have been disclosed when it was known.

Provident Financial is “perfectly comfortable” that the dividend cancellation for all of 2017 (both the interim and the final) should prevent an equity capital raise. While comforting, the company did not rule out an equity raise. Further, Provident Financial has nearly £150MM of goodwill and intangibles on its balance sheet, some of which are likely impaired given current trading conditions.

The company is not putting a timeline on the return to profitability in the Consumer Credit Division (which made £115.2MM in 2016A and will lose between £80MM and £120MM in 2017E).

Provident Financial’s financial covenants allow maximum gearing of up to 5.0x (H1/17: 2.3x). Provident also has a net worth covenant of at least £400MM. It is our understanding that PFG’s pension asset (which is £85MM as of 30 June 2017) is excluded from these covenants l
Provident has a retail bond of £120MM that matures in October 2017. PFG believes that it has funding (through committed facilities plus Vanquis Bank retail deposits) to provide funding through to the seasonable peak in 2018.

Adjusting our forecasts just for the new CCD guidance would cause at least a 55% reduction in our 2017E PBT forecast (at the midpoint of the loss range) – assuming all else equal. Provident Financial’s book value – which excludes the pension asset and as of 30 June 2017, is 446p per share. Our conclusion from this morning still stands: the shares are not investable until greater clarity is received, which may not be until next year at the earliest."

Peel Hunt note today:
Home credit: The best thing that Provident could do is roll back the clock and return to a model of self-employed agents, although they remain committed to the current model for the time being. Home credit is a community based lending product where the relationship between the collection agent and the borrower is sacrosanct. Technology can be used to great effect to make these businesses more efficient and secure but efficacy of collections is still based on the agent borrower relationship. At the time of the 20th June profits warning Provi’s indicated that pre-exceptional profit would reduce to c£60m. At this time, management hoped that Q3 would see an customer service levels restored and collections returned to acceptable levels (12% of agencies were vacant and collections were behind to the tune of £40m). The rate of progress seen to-date has been below management expectations “too weak” with collections performance running at 57% versus 90% in 2016 and sales £9m lower than the comparative period in 2016. The business is now expected to make a loss of £80m-£120m

Vanquis & Dividends to Group: To add to Provi’s woes FCA has launched an investigation into repayment option plans (ROP) sold within Vanquis. ROP’s are Provi’s answer to Payment Protection Insurance and contribute gross revenues of £70m per annum – not an inconsiderable sum given what’s likely to be a high drop through rate. FCA is investigating the period from 1st April 2014 to 19th April 2016. Sales of ROP have been suspended since April 2016. It has also been agreed with PRA that the bank will not pay dividends up to the group, without PRA permission. Bank regulation is focused on the protection of depositors and given the deterioration in trading performance and the potential for elevated deposit outflows you can understand why PRA is keen to ensure that the bank remains well capitalised. Fortunately, the majority of deposits are in term accounts that may help to prevent a significant near term outflow although even term accounts can be withdrawn with the loss of interest.

Other businesses: Trading performance of the other businesses including Vanquis, Moneybarn and Satsuma remain in line with internal plans, but as I’ve commented on multiple occasions in the past I have longer term concerns over the greater economic sensitivity to which these business expose to the Group.

My thoughts: Today is going to be painful with the dividend gone and trading performance of the Home Credit business falling off a cliff and showing no signs of improvement. Regardless of the government deposit guarantee there is a tail risk in terms of retail deposit funding and this will need to be monitored carefully over the next few weeks/months. Will middle class Daily Mail readers take fright and move their money? To some extent the fact that Vanquis holds term deposits may help, but renewal rates are likely to suffer and the cost of deposits is likely to rise."

530.75p -1,214.25p (-69.58%)

Just in case any holders need a short term chart, very volatile on the way down though it had a bit of a bounce not long ago

5 days chart

Is this the start of another Sub Prime debacle akin to 10 years ago? The same pattern has appeared already in Canada with some of their lenders. Just a thought.

Not one I hold fortunately, but used to invest in a similar Co called Cattles many years ago, which sank under huge debt and was taken over.

Woodford keeps the faith with Provident - should you?

Nice bounce for those brave enough to trade it.

Ready for a bounce @ 788.50p ( 788/789p )

Share price has stop falling on reaching intraday 759p yesterday that was a 38.2% retracement. The MACD Indicator is very positive and moving into bullish as is almost crossing up "O" point and also divergence on the lines crossing each other up. Stronger order book on the bid side. Had a fall from from 2000p .

SUNDAY TELEGRAPH - Lucy Burton, financial services editor - 10 SEPTEMBER 2017

Provident seeks to turn the clock back in last-ditch bid to revive doorstep business

Provident Financial is planning sweeping changes to its controversial doorstep lending business in an ­attempt to reverse a disastrous restructure that led to a pair of crippling profit warnings.

The struggling company is trying to stabilise itself following a botched rejig of its salesforce earlier this year. It is ­rearranging its home credit division, urging former agents to come back on a part-time contract and setting a fresh hiring target, sources told The Sunday Telegraph.

An overhaul aimed at swapping 3,800 part-time agents for 2,500 full-time ones caused debt collections to fall this year as a number of staff left or moved to rivals. The failed reshuffle forced the company to issue its second profit warning in two months and also triggered the shock exit of its chief executive.

The company’s shares plunged more than 66pc as investors digested the news last month, with the business warning that it could make losses of ­between £80m and £120m in its home credit division following the change in how it collected loans.

Chris Gillespie, who was put in charge of the home credit unit last month, said in a memo to staff on Sept 1 that his “direction of thinking” was to introduce four UK divisions instead of two, up the number of regional managers from 12 to 22, and hire 450 part-time agents. “People are watching us closely,” he told employees.

846p +14.00 +1.68%

UBS increasing stake crossed 8 September 2017 reeported 12th Sept.

now 6.08%
earlier 5.49%

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Even the most pessimistic of brokers RBC Capital pencils in substantial profits for 2017, 2018 & 2019.

"RBC cut its forecasts for earnings per share for the current and next two financial years by 65%, 56% and 42% to 51.7p, 81.7p and 125.3p respectively."

This company will clearly make large profits this year and every year thereafter.

StockMarketWire.com
Provident Financial said its consumer credit division was expected to report a "pre-exceptional" loss of around £120m, which was at the upper end of guidance provided in August of a loss between £80m and £120m.

The loss reflected a "lower-than-expected rate of re-connection through the fourth quarter with those home credit customers whose relationship had been adversely impacted following the poorly-executed migration to the new operating model in July 2017", the company said.

Vanquis Bank and Moneybarn, meanwhile, both traded satisfactorily through the final quarter of the year, it added.

"I am pleased to report that good progress has been made towards restoring customer service in the home credit business and that we are engaged in a dialogue with the FCA with a view to reaching a resolution of the regulatory investigations at Vanquis Bank and Moneybarn," chief executive Malcolm Le May said.

"In addition, we continue to make progress in the search for a new group chief executive."

As I recall, FWIW, they ditched their doo-to-door sales-force, believing super-execs would be better...Quite forgetting the d-t-d fellas knew the customers and who would repay. This was a major Business Fault IMHO. What would the d-t-d fellas do? - they either set-up in competition or sold ( surely not?) their inside Info. to the highest bidder.
Either way PF were destined for a lull in new (profitable) Orders and potential Losses as the Customers ran-ring round the new Execs, who came with "tarnished faces" . . .
Their Credit-card may be a good area, or not.... Time will tell..... -BUT- if you are lending to folks close to poverty, almost anything can push them over the edge . . . and they have nothing of value to collect, even if you could take them to Court.... while the lender gets a bad name. I rest my case.

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Cattles....sure remember the name . . . but not why/if they failed - were they LENDERs too? I guess someone knows....-and- where are their Execs now...?

Cheers.

and-where are their execs now....? Well taking a shrewd guess I think a few of them may be here.





Had a wee punt on these to tuck away in my Isa, interim divi payment tom 18th. DYOR
penny stock risky. Impossible to trade too wide a spread.