Is This A Buy Yet??????????? @115p

Glad I sold out last week. Dont like late announcements, gives me the willys. More often than not something IS UP. This time looks like the bank takeover which has collapsed was the cause.

Trading looks solid mind.

Not for me ,but heres another midas tip -

MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Our buy-to-let Paragon tip soars 50% with more to go



By Simon Watkins, Financial Mail On Sunday

PUBLISHED:22:32, 23 February 2013| UPDATED:22:32, 23 February 2013

MIDAS followers who bought shares in buy-to-let lender Paragon last year are already sitting on a 50 per cent gain in just under five months. However, now is not the time to take profits as there is every sign the success will continue at least for the foreseeable future.


Paragon has thrived on the continuing boom in renting and seems to be continually seeking ways to raise new funds to keep on lending to landlords. Profits last year rose to £95.5million, up from £81 million the year before.


That helped the shares climb, and since September 30, 2012, when Midas tipped them at 206½p, they have risen to 312¾p. On top of that, Paragon has paid a final dividend of 4.5p a share, taking the year’s dividend to 6p.





Room to rent: The lettings market is booming

The group has benefited from the mainstream banks trying to reduce their loan portfolios and from the fact that many would-be homeowners are finding it hard to get on the property ladder, so spending longer in rented accommodation.


Those fundamentals look unlikely to change in the near future. Paragon is also well funded with £450million in facilities available from banks for more mortgage lending to customers.


The risk remains of a big downturn in the housing market, though that has so far not materialised, and Paragon has made great play of its high-quality lending. Its arrears rate (the percentage of mortgage holders behind in their payments by three months or more) was 0.48 per cent compared with a sector average of 1.5 per cent.


Paragon itself issued figures last week showing that landlords were making yields (the rental income as a percentage of the price of their property) of six per cent last year, suggesting there is plenty of life in the buy-to-let market yet. As ever, investors should keep a close watch on the housing market for signs of strain.


Paragon has also been looking at entering the banking market through acquiring a small bank or applying for its own licence to take deposits. If successful, that could push the group into a whole new field with huge potential, albeit with some new risks attached.


Meanwhile Paragon’s latest wheeze for raising cash to fuel growth was to issue a retail bond available to ordinary investors. The deadline for buying into the opening had been Tuesday this week but the strong uptake means the offer was closed early on Friday.






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The group raised £60million with a bond offering a coupon of six per cent and maturing in 2020. The terms were clearly more than enough to attract plenty of backers. If you missed the opportunity to buy into the bond – or the minimum commitment of £2,000 was too high for your taste – the shares still offer an attractive alternative.


Indeed, the ease with which Paragon attracted buyers for its bond is itself a vote of confidence in the group.

Midas verdict: If you bought Paragon shares at our tip price of 206½p in September you are sitting on a very healthy capital gain. On top of that the dividend represents a yield of three per cent – a respectable sum in the current climate – so hold.


If you did not buy then you could consider climbing aboard now. You may have missed the bond issue, but the shares could still provide a good return. At today’s price of 312¾p and given a forecast dividend of 7p this year the shares will deliver a two per cent yield with a realistic chance of some capital growth on top.


It is not such an attractive proposition as it was in September and at this price it is clearly riskier, but for those prepared for a little risk the shares are still a buy.

Half Yearly Report

Highlights

Financial Performance
· Profit before tax increased by 9.6% to £49.1 million (2012 H1: £44.8 million)

· Total operating income increased by 5.5% to £86.8 million (2012 H1: £82.3 million)

· Underlying profit before tax increased by 10.0% to £48.2 million (2012 H1: £43.8 million) †

· Earnings per share increased by 10.5% to 12.6p (2012 H1: 11.4p)
· Interim dividend increased to 2.4p per share (2012 H1: 1.5p per share) in line with dividend policy


Capital and Funding
· Strong operational cash generation: free cash balances £173.8 million at 31 March 2013 after investments (2012 H1: £104.9 million)

· Warehouse facilities increased to £450.0 million
· Successful securitisation of new buy-to-let loan assets

· Retail bond programme launched and successful first issue completed


Business and Operations
· £102.3 million of buy-to-let loans advanced (2012 H1: £89.2 million); pipeline at 31 March 2013 of £241.2 million; significant increase in lending expected in second half

· £57.6 million invested in consumer loan portfolios in the period

· Idem Capital established as one of the leading consumer debt buyers in the UK

† Note 7

PAG..... just gone long. Bullish engulfing candle on a line of support. Oscillators looking set to turn bullish aswel.

Stock looks far too cheap compared
to Broker SP TARGETS.........

Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes

22 May 13 Paragon Group of... JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 304.95 300.00 361.00 Retains
21 May 13 Paragon Group of... RBC Capital Markets Sector Performer 304.95 370.00 - Reiterates
21 May 13 Paragon Group of... Shore Capital Hold 304.95 - - Retains
21 May 13 Paragon Group of... Canaccord Genuity Buy 304.95 350.00 390.00 Retains
21 May 13 Paragon Group of... Espirito Santo Execution Noble Buy 304.95 - 344.00 Retains


N@P Building Society

gf take care with that candle!

JP Morgan overweight TP 396p
housing/buy to let market picking up fast, results due November.
worth a look, dyor.

with buy-to-let booming alongside the property market in general, PAG must surely be worth investigating

the 6-month chart below is easy on the eye .....

Breakout at PAG. Long term chart aswel.

Financials doing well today, fundys cheap aswel historicaly.

Brokers have some hefty SP targets on PAG.

Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target pric Newtarget price

11 Dec 13 Paragon Group Of... Canaccord Genuity Buy 360.50 420.00 420.00 Retains

10 Dec 13 Paragon Group Of... RBC Capital Markets Outperform 360.50 - - Reiterates

05 Dec 13 Paragon Group Of... Berenberg Buy 360.50 395.00 395.00 Retains

28 Nov 13 Paragon Group Of... Espirito Santo Execution Noble Buy 360.50 393.00 424.00 Retains

01 Nov 13 Paragon Group Of... JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 360.50 396.00 - Retains

N@W Building Society

PAG PARAGON FUNDIES........

Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Peel Hunt LLP
23-12-13 BUY 110.41 27.34 7.80 118.38 29.23 8.20
Panmure Gordon [R]
23-12-13 BUY 29.70 8.50 33.80 10.00
Shore Capital
20-12-13 BUY 115.80 28.90 8.70 129.50 32.90 10.40
Westhouse Securities
19-12-13 BUY
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
11-12-13 BUY 122.00 29.20 8.00 135.00 33.00 9.50
Numis Securities Ltd
27-11-13 SELL 111.90 27.90 8.40 116.60 29.20 9.24

2014 2015
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 113.95 28.68 8.28 123.88 32.95 9.55
1 Month Change 5.51 0.60 -0.16 5.70 -0.62 -0.45
3 Month Change 4.88 -0.52 -0.16 2.50 -0.51 -0.45

GROWTH 2013 (A) 2014 (E) 2015 (E)
Norm. EPS 3.38% -11.49% 14.88%
DPS 66.26% 20.01% 15.32%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2013 (A) 2014 (E) 2015 (E)
EBITDA £m £125.00m £143.00m
EBIT £m £m £m
Dividend Yield 1.88% 2.25% 2.60%
Dividend Cover 4.70x 3.46x 3.45x
PER 11.34x 12.81x 11.15x
PEG 3.35f -1.12f 0.75f
Net Asset Value PS p 311.20p 334.70p

Paragon Group of Companies PLC PT Raised to GBX 453 at Canaccord Genuity (PAG)
Posted by Wayne Rhoads on Feb 18th, 2014

Paragon Group of Companies PLC logoAnalysts at Canaccord Genuity upped their price objective on shares of Paragon Group of Companies PLC (LON:PAG) from GBX 420 ($7.04) to GBX 453 ($7.59) in a research report issued to clients and investors on Tuesday, Analyst Ratings Net reports. The firm currently has a “buy” rating on the stock. Canaccord Genuity’s target price points to a potential upside of 23.30% from the stock’s previous close.
PAG has been the subject of a number of other recent research reports. Analysts at Espirito Santo Investment Bank Research reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Paragon Group of Companies PLC in a research note on Thursday, February 13th. They now have a GBX 481 ($8.06) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 424 ($7.11). Separately, analysts at UBS AG raised their price target on shares of Paragon Group of Companies PLC from GBX 325 ($5.45) to GBX 350 ($5.87) in a research note on Monday, February 3rd. They now have a “neutral” rating on the stock. Finally, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterated an “overweight” rating on shares of Paragon Group of Companies PLC in a research note on Monday, February 3rd. They now have a GBX 396 ($6.64) price target on the stock. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, three have given a hold rating and nine have assigned a buy rating to the company’s stock. The company currently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average price target of GBX 381.17 ($6.39).
The Paragon Group of Companies PLC is an United Kingdom-based holding company, engaged in the first mortgage and consumer finance businesses.

thanks to someone (sticky?) i bought some for my SIPP the other day at 358, so very many thanks to that benefactor

Latest Broker Views........

Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes

18 Feb 14 Paragon Group Of... Canaccord Genuity Buy 381.25 420.00 453.00 Reiterates
18 Feb 14 Paragon Group Of... Espirito Santo Execution Noble Buy 381.25 481.00 481.00 Retains
13 Feb 14 Paragon Group Of... Espirito Santo Execution Noble Buy 381.25 424.00 481.00 Retains
03 Feb 14 Paragon Group Of... RBC Capital Markets Outperform 381.25 - - Reiterates
03 Feb 14 Paragon Group Of... Jefferies International Buy 381.25 400.00 420.00 Reiterates
03 Feb 14 Paragon Group Of... JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 381.25 396.00 396.00 Retains

Half Yearly report

Highlights
Strong increase in buy-to-let lending and Idem Capital investment levels. Banking subsidiary established
· £269.3 million of buy-to-let loans advanced (2013 H1: £102.3 million); pipeline at 31 March 2014 of £348.1 million; significant increase in lending expected in second half

· Idem Capital invested £121.9 million in consumer loan portfolios in the period

· Car Finance business launched by Paragon Bank PLC


The business produced underlying profits of £57.9 million for the period, a 20.9% increase, generating a 19.0% increase in EPS and a 25.0% increase in the interim dividend
· Underlying profit before tax increased by 20.9% to £57.9 million (2013 H1 (restated*): £47.9 million) †

· Profit before tax increased by 19.3% to £58.2 million (2013 H1 (restated*): £48.8 million)

· Total operating income increased by 11.3% to £96.4 million (2013 H1 (restated*): £86.6 million)

· Earnings per share increased by 19.0% to 15.0p (2013 H1 (restated*): 12.6p)

· Interim dividend increased by 25.0% to 3.0p per share (2013 H1: 2.4p per share) in line with dividend policy


To enable future growth, funding sources were diversified and expanded on improved terms
· Warehouse facilities extended on improved terms and increased after 31 March 2014 from £450.0 million to £550.0 million

· Paragon Mortgages (No. 19) PLC securitisation completed, with a broader investor base and on improved terms, funding new buy-to-let loan assets and refinancing a legacy deal, First Flexible No. 4 PLC, the first since 2007

· First structured funding of acquired Idem Capital assets completed

· Second issue under retail bond programme

· Banking licence granted to Paragon Bank PLC, retail deposit taking capability established

PAG got a lot going for it, as some resistance coming up pretty soon but if it gets through we should see a move for the high of the year at 425p. Some healthy brokerage following aswel

i've got these in my sipp from 358, so fairly happy

Results in the morning.

PAG

BEATS CONSENSUS Broker Figures easily......

2014 2015
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Shore Capital
21-11-14 BUY 122.20 30.50 8.60 142.50 36.10 10.40
Panmure Gordon
21-11-14 BUY 31.20 8.50 35.70 10.00
Peel Hunt LLP
21-11-14 BUY 121.20 30.01 8.20 138.66 34.23 9.50
Westhouse Securities
20-11-14 BUY
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
29-10-14 BUY 117.00 29.90 9.00 141.00 35.50 10.50
Numis Securities Ltd
24-07-14 SELL 119.20 30.70 8.76 126.70 32.80 10.10
Espirito Santo Investment Bank Inc
02-04-14 BUY 114.90 28.90 8.40 120.30 30.60 9.50
2014 2015

Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 120.68 30.28 8.58 140.40 35.30 10.13


Fantastic results and lets not forget the consensus figures were revised upwards on the IMS.

HIGHLIGHTS

Underlying profits increased by 18.1% to £122.2 million from £103.5 million in 2013


2014
2013
(restated*)
Change
% change
Profit before tax
£122.8m
£104.8m
+£18.0m
+17.2%
Basic EPS
31.9p
28.2p
+3.7p
+13.1%
Dividend per share
9.0p
7.2p
+1.8p
+25%
Dividend cover ratio
3.5 times
3.9 times


Return on equity
10.7%
10.1%


Cost:income ratio
32.0%
33.2%


* note 2

Strong progress in buy-to-let and debt purchase divisions. Banking franchise established. All divisions showing strong growth prospects

· Buy-to-let completions increased by 82.5% to £656.6 million (2013: £359.8 million); pipeline increased by 78.9% to £414.8 million (2013: £231.9 million)

· Idem Capital increased its investments, net of debt, by 89.3% to £175.7 million (2013: £92.8 million)

· Paragon Bank launched car finance, second mortgage and buy-to-let operations

Significant progress achieved in Group's funding diversification strategy

· Paragon Bank's retail deposit taking activities commenced in June 2014, with £60.1 million of deposits by the year end

· Second retail bond completed, taking cumulative issuance to £185.0 million

· Two bespoke financing packages, totalling £185.6 million raised to support Idem Capital

· Warehouse facilities for buy-to-let lending increased to £550.0 million

· Securitisation issuance totalled £929.7 million over the last 12 months

Capital management

· Strong increase of 20.2% in net cash generation to £157.8 million (2013: £131.3 million)

· Group capital ratios remain strong with Core Tier 1 ratio of 19.7% and leverage ratio of 8.3%

· 2014 dividend cover ratio at top of the targeted range of 3.0 to 3.5 times, two years ahead of expectations

· Initial £50.0 million share buy-back programme announced

Outlook

· Strong new lending and debt purchase pipelines, together with the development of Paragon Bank, present significant growth prospects

· Funding diversification programme and improving debt capacity underpin sustainable growth

· Shareholder returns enhanced by higher dividends and capital management programme