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Mothercare reborn and maybe worth a punt now (MTC)     

ainsoph - 10 Feb 2003 09:04

I have been in and out of these a few times :-)) ..... bumping around their bottom but starting to bounce a little ..... closed @ 87/90p on Friday.

They have fallen from grace because of poor distribution probelens caused by poor management and an out of House warehousing system. THis is being sorted and new guys have replaced the old .....

Great brand name and selling could be overdone ..... anyway I am in for a few @ 90p and will let them ride for a while - not a t trade. Recent director buying around this price


ains


bought @ 90p - currently moving up at 141/145p 13/05 = plus 56.66% net


Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=MTC&Si

Stan - 17 Oct 2012 15:52 - 120 of 454

Agree, its only 50/50 for me.

skinny - 18 Oct 2012 07:05 - 121 of 454

Interim Management Statement

Group sales

Worldwide network sales strengthened during the second quarter to deliver growth of 2.1% for the first half of the year. International retail sales grew by 10.8% over the same period. Our forward orders and store opening plans for International indicate ongoing growth opportunities across the 60 territories in which we currently trade. This growth is offset by a UK sales decline of 8.3% and reflects our UK (and predominantly ELC focussed) store closure programme. Group sales, which include UK retail sales and receipts from our franchise partners, were down 5.9%. Working capital and cash have been tightly controlled.

International

International grew retail sales by 15.2% in constant currency while reported retail sales, impacted by adverse currency moves, were up 10.8% during the first half of the year. Asia Pacific and the Middle East & Africa continue to perform strongly and at the top end of our expectations while Europe remains weaker, particularly across our Eurozone markets. We opened a net 70 stores during the first half of the year and had 1,098 stores at the end of the period. Our full year goal of 150 stores and circa 16% space growth remains on track.

UK

Our strategy to transform the UK is based on improving product, customer service and availability while at the same time achieving targeted cost savings and cash margin. We now operate from 280 stores (203 Mothercare and 77 ELC) in the UK, having closed 31 stores versus our full year target of circa 50. Total UK sales were down 8.3% reflecting the impact of these closures, while UK like-for-like sales grew 0.3% during the second quarter, with a decline of 3.4% for the half year. In addition, following the transition to a new online platform, Direct in Home has returned to growth, up 11.0% for the second quarter and up 0.9% for the half year.

goldfinger - 18 Oct 2012 07:10 - 122 of 454

Dissapointing results. No real recovery going
on in UK Sales at -8.3% for 28 week period.

Too little too late.

Still a long way to go here on the major contributor
to overall group Sales.

Can a forward P/E of 38 can be justified, I dont think
so.

International sales we knew would be good and were in the SP.

I expect Brokers to maintain Sell recommendations,
perhaps downgrade.

goldfinger - 18 Oct 2012 07:12 - 123 of 454



http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20121018070038H0107

very poor.

Expected a lot more.

goldfinger - 18 Oct 2012 07:19 - 124 of 454

A forward P/E of 38 cannot be justified
on that report no way.

goldfinger - 18 Oct 2012 07:39 - 125 of 454

BRIEF-Mothercare says intnl says growth target may be out of reach18 Oct 2012 - 07:35

LONDON, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Mothercare PLC : * CEO Simon Calver says making FY international sales growth target of 20 percent "is going to be a challenge" ((London Equities Newsroom; +44 20 7542 7717)) ((For more news, please click here [MTC.L]))

Stan - 18 Oct 2012 07:44 - 126 of 454

No real "new" news as far as UK sales are concerned, and will be marked down on that alone... But that's no surprise, as these are nearly always only judged on their UK numbers whilst their International growth is virtually ignored. So short term SP. to be hammered, But medium/long-term on the up. IMHO.

goldfinger - 18 Oct 2012 07:47 - 127 of 454

Looks way way to expensive.

A forward P/E of 37.42 to 2013 !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wouldnt want to buy on that rating.


Far too expensive.

Mothercare PLC

FORECASTS 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
15-10-12 SELL 4.99 4.49 15.20
Peel Hunt
12-10-12 HOLD 5.37 4.47 25.11
Seymour Pierce
12-10-12 SELL 8.00 6.70 19.60
Numis Securities Ltd
25-09-12 BUY 8.10 9.10 29.50
Investec Securities
11-09-12 SELL 8.00 6.80 6.00


2013
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 6.70 5.93 6.00
1 Month Change -0.33 -0.32 0.00
3 Month Change -0.03 -0.16 0.00


GROWTH
2012 (A) 2013 (E)
Norm. EPS 63.81% -72.13%
DPS -22.74% -56.12%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2012 (A) 2013 (E)
EBITDA £25.88m £28.75m
EBIT £8.57m £11.10m
Dividend Yield 6.16% 2.70%
Dividend Cover 1.56x 0.99x
PER 10.43x 37.42x
PEG 0.16f -0.52f
Net Asset Value PS 26.85p 62.60p

Hems/Premium



skinny - 18 Oct 2012 08:18 - 128 of 454

I'm out of the remainder - good luck Stan.

goldfinger - 18 Oct 2012 08:19 - 129 of 454

First of broker updates in....

18 Oct Mothercare PLC MTC Seymour Pierce Sell 0.00 232.50 145.00 145.00 Retains

145 SP target.

Stan - 18 Oct 2012 08:36 - 130 of 454

Well done Skinny, Surprisingly for me up over 7% so far.

skinny - 18 Oct 2012 08:40 - 131 of 454

Overall I made @17% - now I'm out it should rocket! :-)

Stan - 18 Oct 2012 08:46 - 132 of 454

That's the way to do it.. So some puppet once said -):

goldfinger - 18 Oct 2012 09:16 - 133 of 454

Closed short. called it wrong. Still think they are hiding margin erossion.

Cant win em all.

Good luck to bulls.

Stan - 18 Oct 2012 13:35 - 134 of 454

Pigging ell.. up 14.5% at the mo!

ahoj - 18 Oct 2012 13:40 - 135 of 454

Good for the banks who offered loans, hold shares.

skinny - 18 Oct 2012 14:16 - 136 of 454

Stan - I did the same with HFD recently - played the long game but sold too early.

Still a profits a profit etc.

Stan - 18 Oct 2012 15:16 - 137 of 454

Struggled with that feeling myself in the past but learning to get over it by thinking how I would and have felt had I made a loss.

goldfinger - 18 Oct 2012 16:44 - 138 of 454

Got back in early to cover deficit this morning ...well 400 quid worth down on short deal.

Hope I didnt -iss on your parade skinny. sincere apoligies if i did. Owe you one.

skinny - 19 Oct 2012 07:39 - 139 of 454

Not at all GF - we are all grown ups! :-)
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