http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

that's a shame ..... at least if i cock up, i own up!

if c300mb, what is fair value, given that the stuff is still in the ground, but ernest still to drill?

hali - you're a far better judge than me at that sort of thing, so what's your view?

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btw, volume really not very heavy at 2.5m traded so far

cynic there are so many calculations/assumptions that could be made if this rumour is accurate, but back of the envelope guesses suggest the market cap should be around 800m which should mean an sp about 400/450p.

so would you disagree at say +/-325 being fair value at this juncture + perhaps 50 for blue sky on ernest?

cynic until we get a confirmatory RNS we are still in a heads or tails situation if the news is good sp shoud be 400p+ if the news is not good or ambiguous sp could fall below 100p.

170M barrels is said by the analyst at Oriel to be worth 600p a share.

So circa 300M barrels would be around 1000p a share, in the ground basis at around 8$ a barrel.

Throw on a 30% discount to that so 700p.

Then there is 90p a share of cash PLUS Ernest to drill PLUS derisked other prospects given success at Sea Lion PLUS Johnson gas discovery PLUS......just keep plussing....

Rumours were also doing the rounds in the city this morning that BP might be running their eyes over RKH if the GoM is blocked off it would be a natural replacement for exploration.

This appears to be more wishful thinking than hard rumour.

what is "hard rumour"?

thanks hali ..... i think the news would need to be pretty disastrous for sp to fall TO 100, but may well fall BY 100 if news is not good and solid

BP rumour was quashed in it's infancy! Some journalist trying to make a name for himself!

he likes to be known as Stupid Arsehole one assumes ..... Mr Arsehole in formal circumstances, and please do not take that pun any further at all!

Mr Blackdown has gone very quiet ..... perhaps he's put his head in a bucket of sulphuric

Anyone else picking on the vibes that a 'placing' for cash has been ruled out ?

The vibe certainly is that there will be no placing and that "farm ins" will be the route for appraisal of the finds. If this turns out to be true I will be very happy, a placing now would allow manipulation of the SP, short selling and all sorts of nasties.

A farm in is far better for shareholders and will realise more value for them.

Thats the good thing about RKH having 100% ownership. This will be excellent news for all shareholders if true.

just worth noting that for the first time in living memory, the bid book is stronger than the offer

If you had 100k to invest on the stockmarket what % would you invest in RKH

Don't have a position at all and no sour grapes. Good luck to all investors who have taken the punt. Pending news, any rise has to be based on speculation hence the froth. It may well go to 5/10/15.

blackdown - wrong .... there is little or no speculation that RKH have made a decent find .... there is some speculation as to its size ..... 170mb looks to be the low consensus, but would concede that there will need to be more to the report than that to sustain or improve current sp

aldwickk - anything more than 5%, or for the risk-happy perhaps 7.5% would be very brave given the small size of the pot indicated

Cynic,

I bow to your undoubted greater knowledge of this stock.

no great knowledge, but i have now been following it for a little while and most certainly should not complain with the result so far - and no, i shall not forget to bank partial profits as 50p banked is infinitely preferable to 1.00 lost

cynic sold sufficient to cover the cost of the original investment, does one become greedy and hold the rest or sell a %age to realise some profit if so what %age, that is the question.