Tullow Oil plc is one of the largest independent oil and gas, exploration and production companies in Europe. Tullow Oil produces over 56,000 boepd, with a primary focus on UK Gas and West African Oil, underpinned by development projects in the UK, Africa and South Asia.

            Red = 25 day moving average.           Green = 200 day moving average.

Oil prices could fall to $50 a barrel by the end of the year because of the global recession, reducing heating bills and the cost of motoring, analysts said yesterday.

The price of Brent North Sea crude fell to $63 yesterday, even after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) decided to cut output by 1.5 million barrels several days ago in an attempt to shore up prices.

Supermarkets including Asda, Sainsburys, Tesco and Morrisons responded by announcing cheaper petrol.

Robert Laughlin, an analyst at the trader MF Global, said: The world-wide demand for energy is getting worse every day. If we continue to get this drip-drip of bad news, I think we will get close to $50 a barrel by December. Weve seen demand [drop by] 2 million barrels per day since the beginning of August. This cut isnt enough and Opec will definitely have to go further to stop the slide.

if you believe that, why do you not short crude? ..... Nymex is the one that dictates.

LONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Tullow Oil PLC:
* Ebony-1 exploration well, located in the shallow water Tano licence
offshore
Ghana, has intersected two hydrocarbon bearing intervals
* Current interpretation of the Ebony-1 result is extremely encouraging
((London Equities Newsroom; +44 20 7542 7717))

cyril

We need a rise in crude.....TLW is one of the best mid-caps around....9 times out of ten it is good news with them !.

" We need a rise in crude....." Anyone know Opec's phone No.?

Incredible the drop in crude oil....I would never have believed this possible just 4 months ago....good demand still has to be there....!.

I think just as there were some hefty long positions on wti there are now some hefty short positions , when they close could see a big bounce though not sure what their target is. $45 or $50 or perhaps 10. Crude seems to be following the indices and of course the dollar. Surprising that Captain Pugwash's antics didn't spike it yesterday! I'm looking for an opportunity to go long wti but global recession just seems to be escalating

OPEC meeting again end of next week - further cuts in production very likely.

Is that right m2 ? we shall see then.

Took a long position this morning.

Tullow Oil TLW, SP bouncing from long term support/resistance line at 400p, good chance of move up to next resistance at 600p pretty quick time and then hoping from a break up through it.

ADX TA indicator positive at +30



Broker Recommendations...

Tullow Oil PLC

SUMMARY CHARTS DIRECTOR DEALINGS FORECASTS WIRES
2008 2009
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
24-11-08 ADD 288.69 19.89 6.30 183.34 10.27 6.60
Exane BNP Paribas
24-11-08 HOLD 676.00 20.65 6.00 187.00 11.38 6.00
Numis Securities Ltd
21-11-08 BUY 31.90 19.90
Charles Stanley
21-11-08 HOLD
Davy Stockbrokers
21-11-08 None 25.70 6.30 21.40 6.60
Oriel Securities
20-11-08 BUY 293.00 22.40 6.50 309.00 24.60 7.00
Merrion Stockbrokers
17-11-08 BUY 27.70 6.00 37.70 6.50
Evolution Securities Ltd
01-11-08 BUY 359.40 9.70 6.00 388.90 33.50 6.30
Goodbody Stockbrokers
21-10-08 ADD 34.30 6.50 30.20 7.00
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd
21-10-08 BUY 25.72 4.70 23.17 4.79
ABN AMRO
29-08-08 BUY 278.79 21.24 6.50 359.68 27.26 7.00

2008 2009
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 307.92 23.37 6.25 327.21 23.93 6.59
1 Month Change -9.72 -0.48 -0.04 -27.44 -4.79 -0.07
3 Month Change -85.55 0.50 -0.01 -35.92 -5.20 -0.03


GROWTH
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
Norm. EPS -37.96% 31.92% 2.40%
DPS 10.00% 13.64% 5.44%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
EBITDA 471.81m 539.72m 491.75m
EBIT 266.01m 362.69m 287.30m
Dividend Yield 1.18% 1.34% 1.41%
Dividend Cover 3.22x 3.74x 3.63x
PER 26.36x 19.98x 19.52x
PEG -0.69f 0.63f 8.14f
Net Asset Value PS -36.05p 141.43p 144.81p

Not far to go for 600p now, and then we are trully well and away.

Chart showing bullish double bottom and positive secondary indicators.

With demand falling, there is no way oil will reach $200 in the short to medium term...



Oil to hit $25 a barrel as global recession deepens, Merrill Lynch predicts

Oil prices could tumble below $25 a barrel next year if the global recession reaches China, investment bank Merrill Lynch has predicted.

The prediction that the crude prices could revisit lows last seen in 2002 led to a plunge in energy shares on Wall Street and sent the Dow Jones index down 215 points - or 2.5pc.

"With demand vanishing across all key oil consuming regions, benchmark crude oil prices continue to plummet," Merrill said in a research note. "A temporary drop below $25 a barrel is possible if the global recession extends to China."

Oil fell below $43 barrel overnight as crude oil heads for its biggest weekly decline since March 2003. Since the US was declared to be in recession earlier this week the price has fallen 19pc.

"The connection is pretty clear - fewer people in jobs is a clear sign of a weakening economy,'' said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney.

"As unemployment rises, GDP falls and oil demand falls. It's not likely to show much hope for the economy.''

bet Merrill also said oil to hit $200 when it was +/-$140 ..... just another bunch od so-called analyst arseholes!

my money will very shortly be placed long on a Nymex contract, so that is my view

Looking horny again.

best trading in and out of this one.

long at moment.

Great news this morning.....apart from the low oil price, TLW and HOIL looking rather good !.

Broker upgrade.....

TULLOW OIL

FORECASTS
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-12-08 BUY 407.30 14.90 527.30 45.40

Moving up nicely now on a day which looks too red for my liking.

I see brokers have a target SP for TLW in a range from around 850p to 1200p which makes the current SP look rather stingy.

A lot more to come here i think.

An upsurge in oil prices might be on the way with the new year coming and cold weather here until march at least.

From The Times December 13, 2008

Expert cuts $200-a-barrel oil forecast to $45
Robin Pagnamenta, Energy and Environment Editor

The leading Goldman Sachs oil analyst, who had been one of the market's biggest bulls this year, predicting that crude could hit $200 a barrel, has slashed his 2009 forecast to $45, blaming incredibly weak demand as the global economy plunges into recession.

Arjun Murti, the New York energy analyst for the US investment bank, came to prominence in 2005, when he was among the first to predict accurately a superspike in prices to more than $100 a barrel. For each of the successive three years, his forecasts were consistently higher - and usually closer to the mark - than those of most of his peers.

However, Mr Murti was left red-faced this autumn when his prediction that prices could reach $200 proved far-fetched. Instead, they nosedived from a high of $147 a barrel on July 11 to $48.50 yesterday.

In a research note published late on Thursday, Mr Murti's team said that it had been compelled to trim its average price outlook for next year to $45, from a previously reduced forecast of $75, because of a continued deterioration in global oil demand.

The note read: Global economic conditions are the weakest the world has seen since at least the early 1980s and demand is declining at an accelerating rate.

Mr Murti added that demand for crude was so weak that Opec, the cartel of 13 oil-producing nations, which will meet next week in Algeria, would be unable to force prices higher through further production cuts.

We think that the sharp and sudden collapse in global oil demand exceeds Opec's ability to, on its own, balance markets, and necessitates sharply lower non-Opec crude-oil supply, the report said.

Nevertheless, Mr Murti also asserted that there were signs that crude prices could be close to a turning point. We see a growing number of signs that oil markets have entered the bottoming phase of the cycle, the report said, adding that positive demand growth and shrinking non-Opec supply would push prices to $70 a barrel by 2010 and to $105 by 2012.

We do not believe oil markets are on track for a decade-plus period of weakness like seen in the 1980s and 1990s, the report said.

In a separate study published yesterday, another group of Goldman commodities analysts predicted that world oil demand would fall by 1.7 million barrels a day, helping to drive oil prices down to as low as $30 a barrel in the first quarter of next year.

We expect that an additional 2 million barrels per day of Opec supply cuts will be required in 2009, along with a 600,000 barrels per day reduction in non-Opec production, in order to rebalance the market, the analysts wrote.