http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/35266/aminex-shares-worth-considering-ahead-of-key-operational-milestones-says-shorecap-35266.html
Aminex shares worth considering ahead of key operational milestones, says ShoreCap
Mon 12:09 pm by Jamie Ashcroft
This part of East Africa is becoming a hotspot for exploration, with several major discoveries being made
The hotly anticipated Ntorya exploration well can help investors in Aminex (LON:AEX) get over the disappointing outcome of the Nyuni-2 well, according to Shore Capital analyst Craig Howie.
The groups shares have fallen 45 per cent in the past month since the Nyuni-2 well was suspended.
The exploration well was drilled diagonally from a small island to test offshore targets in Tanzania. A technical problem meant that Aminex could not assess the target reservoirs.
In a note to clients Shore Capitals Craig Howie says that Aminex shares are very worthy of consideration following the recent fall.
Although the Nyuni-2 outcome was undeniably disappointing the groups oil reserves in the United States limit the downside to the shares from here, Howie said. Furthermore he reckons there is good scope for the share price to rise if Aminex can deliver good news in the coming months.
The good news may come from two assets in Tanzania, he explains.
The Ntorya well in the onshore Rovuma PSA is the next key milestone and the Kiliwani North gas field could begin production not long after that.
Howie expects Aminex to spud the exploration well early next month and the results to be ready in the New Year. Ntorya is a joint venture with Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) and Solo Oil (LON:SOLO), which own 25 and 18.75 per cent stakes respectively.
Ntorya-1 is targeting an estimated 100 million barrels of oil equivalent and it is said to have a 20 per cent chance of success. It will test the same high-quality Lower Tertiary reservoir sands that the Likonde-1 well encountered 14 kilometres to the north.
Although Likonde-1 was not a flowing, commercial discovery, the hydrocarbon shows and potential net reservoir thickness provided lots of encouragement ahead of drilling of a second exploration well, Howie said.
Additionally the ShoreCap analyst points to Anadarko Petroleums Ironclad well, which was drilled offshore in 2010, as evidence of liquid hydrocarbons in the basin. Indeed Iron is one of several nearby discoveries made in the past eighteen months or so.
The Ntorya well will cost around US$5 million, according to Howie. He explains that this is considerably less than the Nyuni-2. The well is cheaper because of it will be drilled to a shallower depth and it will be simpler vertical well.
Following the completion of the Ntorya well attention is likely to turn to the Kiliwani North gas field. Aminex received a production licence for the project earlier this year after the discovery area was carved out of the licence area belonging to the Nyuni PSA.
The Kiliwani North discovery was made back in 2008. Now Aminex is preparing to commercialise the gas field which is near existing infrastructure at the Songo-Songo gas field.
Despite past delays, we understand that the Tanzanian authorities are now very keen to see this project commercialised due to local gas shortages, Howie said.
Aminex is confident that it can achieve first gas in the second quarter of 2012.
He added: In addition to the engineering and procurement of equipment to tie Kiliwani North into existing gas processing facilities, final negotiation of a gas sales agreement is currently underway, and we now have sufficient confidence to factor Kiliwani North into our production forecasts for next year.