I bought into these in December last year, primarily for the yield, but also for the potential growth of one of the better companies in their sector.


Company Website

Financial Calendar

Recent Broker notes

BarChart Indicators

Recent Market news

Marston's Fundamentals (MARS)

SHARE TIPS FROM INVESTORS CHRONICLE

Harriet Russell
A far-sighted growth strategy that Marston's (MARS) put in place in the wake of the credit crunch in 2009 looks set to step up a gear, providing the prospects of substantial profit and dividend growth from 2015 and beyond along with the potential for broker upgrades, if recent strong half-year results are anything to go by. However, priced at just 10 times forecast earnings and promising a yield of over 4 per cent, the shares do not seem to be taking full account of the impressive outlook for income and growth.

While a recent slew of sales of non-core pubs is expected to result in flat earnings this year, the move provides the opportunity to significantly boost returns by focusing the pub group on its strongly performing managed estate and its innovative franchise pubs. Indeed, the plan is for 85 per cent of profits to be generated from such pubs in coming years.

According to chief executive Ralph Findlay, Marston’s success in rejuvenating its estate since the credit crunch can be attributed to paying close attention to the changing nature of the British consumer. He calls it the 'F-Plan': focusing on families, females, forty-somethings and - most importantly - food. Traditionally, pubs focused on drinks sales because it was a higher-margin business. But Mr Findlay says that has changed. Britain’s average consumer, he says, is looking for the most "bang for their buck" and wants food to play a part in weekly trips to the pub. Mr Findlay also points out many household spending decisions are made by females and described them as a ‘prime customer target’. Much of the pub sector is now slowly catching on to this trend, but Marston's has a head start on its rivals.


Marston's seemed to realise the pub landscape and the clientele was changing as early as 2009. Since then, the group has built over 100 'family-friendly' pubs, investing more than £250m in new sites. And prescience of the move was illustrated last year by the British Beer & Pub Association’s annual pub-running guide entitled which found that pubs with higher dry sales (food) are now better able to boost profitability, as food margins now range from 56 to 61 per cent, compared to drinks margins ranging from 49 to 54 per cent. What's more, the same report showed the highest level of gross profit was achieved by rural-destination pubs and food-led pubs, which are a particular focus for Marston's. Its estate is mostly regional and underlying operating profit at its destination and premium sites - including branded Pitcher & Piano chain - grew 18 per cent in the first half of 2014. This was down to an increased spend per head as well as more customers.

The strong contribution from these 356 managed pubs, accounting for almost two-fifths of underlying profit, helped the group to beat most brokers' forecasts in the first six months of the financial year. Underlying revenue was up 4.5 per and underlying EPS rose 11 per cent to 4.1p, but forecasts have not been upgraded for now. The ongoing conversion of tenanted pubs to the group's innovative franchise model (currently accounting for 545 of the group's 1,078 'Tavern' pubs) has also helped overall performance and has helped limit risks.

However, Marston’s - along with much of the sector - carries a hefty debt pile and has made reducing it a major strategic objective. The medium-term target is to bring the ratio of debt to cash profits down to 5 times and the ongoing disposal programme, which generated £116m in the first half, will help. Importantly, though, expansion plans are also still high on the agenda. The 2009 new-build programme doesn’t look set to slow: this year the group is on track to open 27 new family-focused pub restaurants, 11 of which already opened their doors in the first half.

Share tip summary

It’ll be a fine balance, Mr Findlay admits, between paying down debt and building new pubs, but as consumer confidence returns, Marston's should be well-positioned to achieve growth. Given its increasingly attractive expansion strategy, a hearty yield, forecasts of double-digit EPS growth in both 2015 and 2016 (13 per cent and 12 per cent respectively), and the potential for upgrades, the shares are a buy priced at just 12 times 2014 forecast earnings dropping to 11 in 2015. Buy.

Last IC view: Buy, 143p, 29 Nov 2013

Deutsche Bank Hold 151.15 150.80 170.00 170.00 Reiterates

The Capital Group Companies, Inc. > 4%

Interim Management Statement

Trading
We have continued to make good progress in line with our expectations. The impact of the World Cup was broadly neutral, with higher drinks sales offset by weaker food performance in our pubs, and strong sales growth in the off-trade.

In Destination and Premium, like-for-like sales for the 41 week period were 4.1% ahead of last year, including like-for-like food sales growth of 4.2% and like-for-like wet sales growth of 3.5%. Operating margin is slightly above last year and we remain on track to complete 27 new-build pub restaurants in the current financial year.

In Taverns, like-for-like sales for the 41 week period were 3.0% ahead of last year. Our franchise business continues to perform strongly and now operates in around 550 pubs.

In Leased, like-for-like profits for the 41 week period are estimated to be up 3% compared to last year.

In Brewing, own-brewed beer volumes were up around 1% compared to last year including 10% growth in off-trade volumes during the World Cup.

Net debt and cash flow are in line with expectations.

Commenting, Ralph Findlay, Chief Executive Officer said:
"We have continued to make good progress in implementing our strategic priorities with our focus on investment in new pub-restaurants, the expansion of franchise and the continued development of our premium beer portfolio all contributing to our growth targets. We remain confident of achieving our expectations for the full year."

Forthcoming Events
Please find below the forthcoming reporting dates for the Group, which are also available on the investor calendar on our website, www.marstons.co.uk/investors

Year-end trading statement
8 October 2014
2014 Preliminary results
27 November 2014
2015 Interim results
14 May 2015
2015 Preliminary results
26 November 2015

N+1 Singer Buy 144.50 144.20 163.00 163.00 Reiterates

Numis Buy 143.25 144.20 185.00 185.00 Retains

Why are pub stocks plummeting?

On Channel 5 tomorrow night at 8pm-9pm. Marston's Brewery: One Ale of a Job!

Here's the Link

Board Appointments

Marston's PLC is pleased to announce two non-executive appointments to the Board.

Carolyn Bradley and Catherine Glickman will join the Board as independent Non-executive Directors with effect from 1 October 2014 and 1 December 2014 respectively. Catherine Glickman will also be a member of the Remuneration Committee.

Carolyn was Group Brand Director at Tesco PLC from 2012 to 2013. She joined Tesco in 1986 and held a number of other senior positions including Chief Operations Officer for Tesco.com, Commercial Director for Tesco Stores and Tesco UK Marketing Director. She led the teams responsible for major marketing initiatives including the 'Every Little Helps' campaign and the launch of the Tesco Clubcard. She was a Trustee of the DrinkAware Trust until 2013.

Catherine is Group HR Director at Genus Plc. She was Group HR Director at Tesco PLC from 2009 to 2012, having joined Tesco in 1991 and led retail management development and customer service training during a period of significant expansion in the UK and overseas. She previously gained experience in branded retail at Somerfield and Boots.

YEAR-END TRADING UPDATE

Marston's PLC issues the following update on trading for the year-ended 4 October 2014. The preliminary results will be announced on 27 November 2014.

Trading

We have made sound progress this year and expect to report underlying operating profit broadly in line with expectations.

In Destination and Premium, like-for-like sales were 3.1% ahead of the previous year including food like-for-like sales growth of 3.3% and like-for-like wet sales growth of 2.0%. Operating margin is ahead of the previous year and we completed 27 new pub-restaurants in the financial year, creating 1,350 jobs and including our 100th new-build opening since 2009. We expect to continue to develop our Destination estate at a similar rate of growth for the foreseeable future and have a good pipeline with at least 25 sites planned for completion in the 2015 financial year.

In Taverns, like-for-like sales were 2.1% ahead of the previous year. Our franchise business, which now operates in around 540 sites, continues to perform strongly.

In Leased, like-for-like profits are estimated to be up 3% against the comparative year.

In Brewing, own brand beer volumes were in line with last year, with strong performances in premium ales and the off-trade, where we continue to lead the market.

Commenting, Ralph Findlay, Chief Executive Officer said:

"We have made steady progress by consistently implementing our returns-focused strategy including an accelerated new-build programme, and in meeting our targets for disposals and conversions to franchise. We remain on track to complete the majority of this disposal and conversion activity by the end of financial year 2015, creating a pub estate appropriate to meet the needs of our customers in the long-term."

A bit from Tempus

Preliminary Results

Solid progress, transformation on track, continued dividend growth

· Solid trading performance:
- Underlying Group revenue up 1% to £787.6 million and underlying PBT down 3.6% to £83.0 million, reflecting disposals and shorter trading period.
- Like-for-like profit growth in retained pub estate.
- Brewing business continued to grow revenue and operating profits.
- Return on capital remains strong at 10.5%.

· Two year transformation of pub estate on track, average profit per pub up 10%:
- Strong underlying revenue and profit growth in Destination and Premium driven by new-build investment, with 27 openings this year.
- Our 100th new-build pub opened in Dumfries in September.
- Continued conversion of Taverns to franchise - 535 now converted.
- High quality Leased business delivered like-for-like profit and rental growth.
- Average profit per pub up 10% in our retained pub estate.

· Final dividend up 4.9% to 4.3p per share reflecting progress and confidence in strategy

· Encouraging start to new financial year:
- Destination and Premium like-for-like sales up 2.1%. Margins ahead of last year.
- Taverns like-for-like sales up 2.0%.
- Core Leased like-for-like profits up on last year.
- Brewing ahead of last year, particularly strong performance from Hobgoblin over Halloween.
Commenting, Ralph Findlay, Chief Executive, said:
"This year we have made good progress in transforming the quality of our pub estate through the continuation of our new-build development plans and the disposal of weaker pubs. Our Brewing business is benefiting from our category leadership in premium ale and new product development.

There are some signs of modest economic improvement, with the emergence of real wage growth and resilience within the economic regions outside London.

Looking forward, we will continue with our expansion strategy to invest in at least 25 new-build pubs each year. We also remain on track to dispose of the residual 200 pubs targeted for sale from our Taverns estate over the next 12 months to create the desired structure for our business for the future."

Ex-divi 18th Dec 2014 (4.3p)

Increase in holding: http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4938953

Bought in today at 141p. Surely this has to be bottom of the trading range and tomorrow's ex-div will be recovered quickly. I reckon we are in for a good Christmas trading period and a positive update in January will soon get these back on track.

Seems to have nice range there LK.

Suppose it's all gains in the end, but from the point of view of capital gains, entry would be preferred after tomorrow in my case.

AGM AND TRADING STATEMENT

Marston's issues the following Trading Statement for the 16 week period to 24 January 2015 in advance of the Company's Annual General Meeting to be held at noon today.

Trading
Our performance in the financial year to date has been encouraging, including good trading over the Christmas and New Year period. Profitability is in line with our expectations.

In Destination and Premium, like-for-like sales were 2.0% ahead of last year with both food and drink like-for-like sales growth of 2.0%. In the key two week Christmas trading period to 4 January trading was particularly strong with growth of 4.8%, including 12.5% growth on Christmas Day. Operating margins are ahead of last year and our plans to open at least 25 new-pub restaurants in the current financial year are on track, with eight openings expected in the first half.

In Taverns, managed and franchise pub like-for-like sales were 2.0% ahead of last year, with 2.7% growth over the Christmas fortnight and 5.8% growth on Christmas Day. Our franchise model continues to prove successful, providing motivated licensees with local flexibility and reduced risk while improving the quality, consistency and value of the consumer offer.

In Leased, profits were around 1% ahead of last year.

In Brewing, performance has been strong with Group Ale volumes up 4% in the year to date, underpinned by a very strong performance in the off-trade, with volumes up 8%. Hobgoblin, our biggest brand, continues to perform well, with volumes up 10% in the year to date.

We will announce our Interim Results for the 26 weeks to 4 April 2015 on 14th May 2015.

Commenting, Ralph Findlay, Chief Executive, said:
"We have again traded well over the Christmas period, with good sales growth over the key Christmas fortnight for the third year in succession, including serving a record 60,000 meals on Christmas Day. This performance demonstrates that our customers remain attracted to the consistency and value for money we offer, underpinned by excellent service in a high quality environment. In addition, our Beer business continues to perform well, with a particularly strong performance in the off-trade. We remain confident of achieving our expectations for the full year."

Canaccord Genuity Hold 146.95 150.00 150.00 Reiterates

Numis Buy 146.95 180.00 180.00 Reiterates

JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 146.95 155.00 155.00 Reiterates

Panmure Gordon Hold 146.95 150.00 150.00 Retains

N+1 Singer Buy 146.95 170.00 170.00 Reiterates

Deutsche Bank Hold 146.95 170.00 170.00 Reiterates

Directorate Change

Marston's PLC (the "Company") today announces that Ralph Findlay, Chief Executive Officer of the Company, will be appointed a Non-executive Director of Bovis Homes Group PLC with effect from 7 April 2015. Ralph will also be a member of the Nomination Committee, Remuneration Committee and Audit Committee and will chair the Audit Committee from the conclusion of the 2015 AGM.

OK Ralphy, but don't lose focus here please.