I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Thats brightened my day up.......not

Thanks hlyeo locked in profit by moving stop to 260, probably being greedy butyour prediction and latest broker TP from 320 to 300 convinces me to hang in for more :-)

Broker note from Oriel today:
"AHL reported overnight that its weekly NAV fell another 3.6% in a continuation of a bad run. The company have indicated that the problems of AHL in exploiting trends are most likely connected with quantitative easing which has been running over the last year during which AHL is down by 16%.
Their expectation for the future in part depends on whether the stimulus withdrawal
essentially by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England is synchronised or not. It would be worse if it were synchronised which looks quite possible. This is what happened in Q1 2009 and AHL has been suffering. If true this implies a further period of inadequate returns until QE is withdrawn.
That may well mean further downside in the shares though we continue to expect them to recover eventually. Current PT 300p."

Broker note (summary) from Credit Suisse:
"Dividend intact in near-term: Although Man has not given specific guidance we believe the company will hold the dividend flat at 44 cents in the y/e March 2010E given the cash generation of the business and the strong capital base.
Catalysts: Man will outline the next AUM update in late March.
Valuation: With the shares off 25% in the last 3 months it looks to us that the new numbers are fully reflected in the share price. It may however require a recovery on AHL/private client flows for the shares to start outperforming again.
We are reducing our target price to 3 (from 3.2) to reflect our EPS downgrades."

UK Chart of the Day: 28 January 2010

Chart of the day: A rebound in Man Group?

Price trends in stocks can last for some time. In the case of Man Group, the fund management group, the downtrend is now entering the tenth consecutive session (see right).

When prices are far above or below the 50-day moving average, mean reversionary forces will pull it back towards the line. It happened last October and again in November. Moreover, the trend is vastly oversold and at support

Therefore, we open a speculative buy to bet on reversion to the mean. Stop at 220p.

Brokers certainly in favour on the bullish side.....

Man Group PLC

SUMMARY CHARTS DIRECTOR DEALINGS FORECASTS WIRES
2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Oriel Securities [R]
27-01-10 HOLD 16.60 29.30 28.10 27.50
Evolution Securities Ltd
25-01-10 BUY 355.15 16.12 27.27 492.13 22.81 27.27
Keefe Bruyette & Woods Ltd [D]
25-01-10 OUTP 15.53 22.12
Charles Stanley
22-01-10 HOLD
Shore Capital
22-01-10 BUY 346.71 15.97 27.24 442.67 20.62 27.24
Singer Capital Markets Ltd
18-01-10 BUY 402.50 18.42 27.20 544.70 24.98 27.20
Numis Securities Ltd
18-01-10 ADD 338.89 15.33 26.98 428.11 19.62 26.98
Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
13-11-09 BUY 401.00 18.00 27.20 599.00 28.00 27.70

2010 2011
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 347.06 16.04 27.23 492.48 22.77 27.24
1 Month Change -19.19 -0.68 0.43 -49.48 -3.16 0.32
3 Month Change -50.15 -0.95 0.30 -27.20 -5.59 0.31


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)
Norm. EPS -19.70% -55.64% 41.96%
DPS 56.67% 11.42% 0.04%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)
EBITDA 910.11m 422.09m 571.46m
EBIT 801.06m m m
Dividend Yield 9.94% 11.07% 11.07%
Dividend Cover 1.48x 0.59x 0.84x
PER 6.80x 15.34x 10.80x
PEG -0.34f -0.28f 0.26f
Net Asset Value PS 124.54p p p

Hardly any reversion at all.

Moved my stop to target 250.0 if I get stopped out I aint complaining:o)

hope your right GF, might buy somemore to lower my ave.

Be patient, Balerboy.

Took profits @241.80 +33.4 more than happy with that:o)

heading for 220p

Certainly no hurry to buy EMG now.

Don't think we are thinking of buying.

I've stopped thinking altogether..... didn't see any of this coming, going to sit in a dark room with a crate of beer....

'M' and 'W' formations are generally reliable formations, gives a reasonable indication of what is coming next - can be a bit subjective of course as with all TA and especually hindsight!!

From today's FT blog:
"OVERSOLD RSI IN EMG, HAVENT EVER SEEN THEM THIS FAR BELOW THE LOWER LINES, STORY DOING THE ROUNDS THIS MORN THAT THEY ARE LOOKING AT MARSHALL WACE SHOULD BE TAKEN WELL.
[Marshall Wace is largely another black box trading system.]
There was an interesting note out of Shore Capital late on Friday looking at why Man's AHL fund has been stinking the place out.
"We visited the product specialist at AHL yesterday to try and understand more about the recent poor performance figures that have resulted in a drawdown for 2009 of c18%. This performance has become an area of intense focus for investors in Man Group given that it accounts for more than 50% of group management fees. The share price reacted very poorly to both the recent Q3 update and the weekly publication of AHL figures that saw a weekly drawdown of c3.57%. The last two sets of weekly performance figures from AHL have shown an NAV fall of some 5% which reduces earning by some c2.5% and yet the share price has fallen some 20%. The conclusion one can draw from the share price reaction is that there are growing concerns that AHL is broken, hence our discussion with the group.
The first thing to state in favour of AHL is that it has consistently told investors in AHL that it will not always make a positive return and although 2009 was a bad year it fell within their return distribution.
Secondly, no changes are planned although, as we might expect, the company continues to invest in its research pipeline.
Finally can 2009 performance be explained and the answer is yes quantitative easing and government intervention dented performance in 2009, both of which are likely to cease when economies start to function better.
Therefore, what can we expect for AHL inflows? New to AHL investor will need to see some positive performance before committing funds. Existing investors however, particularly institutional users of managed futures are still willing to increase funds on a mean reversion basis. It seems that some investors do buy into AHL on the expectation that the formation of consensus is mean reverting. We concluded that there is little evidence that AHL is broken nor do we detect any palpable sense of panic from the AHL managers. There can be no guarantees that AHLs negative performance will end tomorrow but we do detect a belief from AHL that the investment environment will better suit its clean, clear managed futures model in 2010 than it did in 2009. Man Group, having fallen to 237.5p, now trades at 14.9x our 2010F earning falling to 11.6x our 2011 estimated earnings we view the recent falls as an excellent buying opportunity and reiterate our BUY recommendation."

Harry - Actually bought some this morning to tuck away, (gulp) still have a spread bet short running so hedging quite nicely today! Eventually I think this will be a good recovery play.

CC
i do hope your hedging proves better than mine usually is, especialy in same stock. it means timing is more important then ever. when and what level do i remove one of my hedges? and which one? you'll see. aint worth the sweat. call it right and either take profit or sit through pull back/ retracement which always ocurs and then add whilst still in profit and in direction of trend. but to hedge and be both long and short same stock makes for my not being able to think clearly.i've tried it and it dont work for me. we are all different and this is just my own personal opinion.
regards and good luck
jkd

jkd - Your absoluteley right, many thanks for your thoughts. To be honest I actually own very few stocks, I prefer to trade CFD's and spreadbet these markets since the downturn. Last Thursday I closed my short (spreadbet) @ 241.80 for + 33.4. Friday (being a greedy so and so) opened a new SB short @ 236 Initial target 225.0 stop 246.0, chances are unless Indices tank overnight I will probably get stopped out early doors. I bought 691 shares @ 236.8 this morning to tuck away and keep hopefully medium to long term (for my granddaughter). I will continue to use SB's Cfd's to trade the stock in the future. I can assure you that the fact the stock rose today was no great aforethought or great timing on my part, I just got lucky! Cheers!