anyone got any ideas about the block trades that went through today?

website: http://www.sterlingenergyplc.com/



weather: www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084938.shtml?50wind120

Global oil capacity growth hinges on mega-projects
Thu 1 July, 2004 13:44

By Jonathan Leff

LONDON (Reuters) - The smooth, prompt start-up of about a dozen big-ticket oil projects over the next 18 months is more important than ever to meeting global oil demand growth and keeping prices under control, analysts say.

These multi-million-dollar oilfield and pipeline plans should deliver 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of new production capacity before the end of 2005, mostly in non-OPEC areas such as the former Soviet Union, Brazil and West Africa, a Reuters survey found.

A host of second-tier developments adds more than one million bpd.

Delays to a few of these fields could propel oil's five-year price boom to new highs, with demand growth galloping at its fastest rate in 24 years and OPEC pumping closer to its own capacity than any time in more than a decade.

"The diminishing cushion of surplus capacity within OPEC means that there is real need for these big non-OPEC projects to come through," said Steve Turner of Commerzbank.

Just a few months ago analysts saw 2005 as a major test for OPEC, with a burst of new oil from non-cartel countries stealing market share. Now, the test is whether OPEC and other producers will be able to pump enough oil to keep up with consumption.

Driven by China's economic expansion, oil demand growth this year has surged an estimated 2.3 million bpd, while the rise in non-OPEC output will lag that substantially at only 1.2 million bpd, the International Energy Agency says.

Analysts expect average non-OPEC supply growth of around 0.8-1.4 million bpd next year, still likely to fall short of an estimated 1.5-2.0 million bpd rise in demand.

"The global oil industry has been caught out by two consecutive years of oil demand growth above two percent and production capacity has not risen fast enough to meet increased demand while maintaining a buffer of spare capacity," the Centre for Global Energy Studies said.

The shortfall in capacity growth next year has added a heightened sense of urgency for new fields to deliver on-time oil -- or risk a shortage.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is now producing crude to within one to two million bpd of its maximum, or less than three percent of the 80 million bpd world market, analysts estimate.

With such a small margin of error, relatively minor supply hiccups can have a major impact on oil prices, which a month ago soared to 21-year peaks over $40.

Major outages like the Iraqi pipeline sabotage in June and last week's Norwegian strike have kept the market on edge.

"Had these disruptions lasted for months, as opposed to days, there would likely not have been enough excess capacity available worldwide to make up for the total loss of exports, resulting in upward price pressure," the U.S. Department of Energy said in a weekly report.

"Since capacity expansion involves substantial investment and long lead times, minimal spare capacity for the mid-term appears likely, barring a significant decline in oil demand growth."

SOME PROJECTS PRONE TO DELAYS

The 11 mega-projects of more than 150,000 bpd expected onstream before the end of next year are heavily concentrated in the former Soviet Union, Brazil and West Africa, a Reuters survey found.

International oil majors have focused on big projects as a drive to improve profit margins force them into frontier areas to find the big fields that bolster profits.

These emerging provinces have already suffered setbacks and delays.

Shell's flagship 225,000 bpd Bonga field in Nigeria has already been pushed back by more than a year and will now start up "well into" 2005, while Brazil's numerous offshore platforms have also suffered repeated delays.

Russian and Caspian production growth depends heavily on three near-term pipeline projects bringing the oil to market, one of which still needs government approval.

More than three-quarters of the new mega-projects will launch next year, with the majority delivering peak flows quickly since they are largely pipeline or offshore developments.

Including smaller developments, more than 3.5 million bpd of capacity at platform should be started up next year, up from 2.5 million bpd this year, according to Robert Skinner, director of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies.

The estimates of new capacity next year are much higher than forecasts for non-OPEC production growth, which averages output over the year and takes into account declining production from mature basins like the North Sea, where production fell six percent last year.

CRUNCH MAY EASE

While the capacity crunch is big news now, there is no certainty it will last. OPEC's own capacity should increase in the medium-term, analysts say, while a near-term fall in prices should also take some of the pressure off.

"We believe there will be a significant price decline in the next six to 12 months," said Sarah Emerson of Boston-based Energy Security Analysis. "At that point the nervousness over tight spare capacity will drop off because OPEC is likely to cut back."

Nigeria and Saudi Arabia have big plans in the works in the next 18 months, but the real expansion should come from 2006 onward, analysts say.

Geoff Pyne, consultant for Sempra Energy, estimates cartel capacity, which stagnated around 30-32 million bpd for the past seven years, will climb to 35 million bpd by 2006.

Saudi Arabia has said it could raise its sustainable capacity by as much as four million bpd if demand warranted it, but says the 800,000 bpd of new oil from Qatif and Abu Safah flowing from October is only meant to offset intentional declines in older fields.

Libyan production is likely to get a fillip from the post-sanctions return of U.S. firms to frozen assets, while the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Nigeria all have projects in the works in several years' time.

Iraq holds the world's second-largest oil reserves and could probably ramp up production relatively quickly, but the massive investment necessary for that still appears years away.

Sterling Energy PLC
02 July 2004



Drilling campaign starts in Gulf of Mexico



Sterling Energy plc ('Sterling') has commenced drilling the A5 ST (Sidetrack)
well on its High Island A-68 lease in the Gulf of Mexico offshore Texas.



The well is the first in a drilling programme planned to more than double
production over the next 12 months from recent levels of around 11 million cubic
feet of gas equivalent per day. It is targeting 'attic' gas reserves updip from
existing productive wells.



Sterling Operations and Technical Director Nigel Quinton said: 'This well marks
the start of an extensive drilling campaign in the Gulf of Mexico in which we
expect to drill at least 6 new wells and undertake the work-over of a number of
existing wells.'



The A5 ST well is located in shallow waters (less than 100 ft) approximately 75
miles south east of Houston, Texas. It is immediately north of Sterling's High
Island A-94 lease acquired in August 2003. Drilling is expected to take up to 3
weeks.



The High Island A-68 lease covers 5,760 acres, and the field, which was
discovered in 1987, has produced a total of 135 billion cubic feet of gas to
date. Participants in the lease are Sterling Energy Inc (Operator) 50% and
Endeavour Oil & Gas Inc (a subsidiary of Pan Andean Resources plc) 50%.

The important thing here is this is not exploratory, they know the gas is there.

News flow is good, just what is needed............

Morning all :)

This thread is begining to become as frequently visited as the Traders Thread!

seawallwalker,

Thanks for posting that news, and hopefully this now confirms the start of some significant growth for Sterling Energy.

So we now have the prospect of the 6 US exploratory wells, AND free carry on many prospects off the Mauritanian coast to look forward to in the near future, SEY is one to hold or accumulate IMHO.

Thx xmortal and seawallwalker, both great pieces of news.

Hopefully this thread will only grow with more participants as the story self propels itself forward.

I think this small consolidation can only be expected and i will certainly be adding at 15.

Andy, i think your opinion is on the money.

By the way, does anyone have any independant research access for SEY?

Quiet, ain't it?

one of those days....mkts a bit unsure after the rate hike and i think a catalyst is needed next week.

Rubbish.

I think they are all in the Pub for Lunch!

Just borrowed this fromthe Pan Andrean Thread.

They go up on the same news, Sterling down.

50/50 venture so why have the MM done this?

Still twice the trades are buys.

How strange!!!


Price Information
Select from list...Share TradesCompany Map
Friday 02/07/04
Real time 1:11 PM Trade time 12:56 PM
Market Symbol PRE Exchange London Stock Exchange
Currency GBX Shares in Issue 119.168M


markets data
Current (p) 18.00 Best Bid (p) 17.50 P/E Ratio (x) 67.202
Change (p) 1.00 Best offer (p) 18.50 Div Yield (%) 0
Change (%) 5.88 Day high (p) 18.25 Market Cap () 21.45M
Last sale (p) 18.38 Day low (p) 17.00 52 week high (p) 23.35
Last close (p) 17.00 Day Volume 1,105,611 52 week low (p) 7.30


time mid price ( p ) day change ( p ) day change (%) share volume
08:00 17.00 0.00 0.00
08:30 17.25 0.25 1.47 145,845
09:00 17.25 0.25 1.47 15,000
09:30 17.25 0.25 1.47 123,590
10:00 17.75 0.75 4.41 65,000
10:30 18.00 1.00 5.88 115,789
11:00 18.00 1.00 5.88 12,887
11:30 18.00 1.00 5.88 5,000
12:00 18.00 1.00 5.88 410,000
12:30 18.00 1.00 5.88 167,500

ok ok, fair point. i think i might be a bit too serious at the moment!

Oil falls from a two-week high
AFX


SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- After climbing more than $3 per barrel in the past two sessions, crude-oil futures eased back but held their ground above $38. Prices touched a two-week high above $39 Thursday amid concerns over terrorist attacks on the oil industry. Now a new threat to global production looms -- the potential for a fall in Russian production after Russia's government ordered Yukos to pay $3.4 billion in back taxes in the next few days, which could force the company to shut down some output. But with energy trading on New York Mercantile Exchange set to close at 1 p.m. Eastern for the Independence Day holiday in the U.S., August crude is down 22 cents at $38.52 a barrel.

This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

While I rememeber.

When Fusion OIl & Gas were being stalked by Sterling, there was a rumour that a Mexican Oil Company was llooking at the books with a view to making a counter offer.

Would it not be funny if it was Pan Andrean.

Coincidence if they make a play for Sterling later on.

Just a thought!

i think they are far too small and if memory serves me correctgly, managemnt of PRE has less credibility than SEY

seawallwalker / proptrade,

I would have though it would have been the other way round, ie SEY looking at PRE?

Food for thought!

Have a good weekend everyone.

Can only help Our Company.

OPEC may delay production increase - Iran oil minister
AFX


TEHRAN (AFX-ASIA) - Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said

Saturday that current oil prices were 'good' and that OPEC could consider

delaying a scheduled production increase when it meets later this month.

'I think that at the moment the prices are good. Many people are happy

about the current prices,' Zanganeh told reporters.

'If at the end of this month we feel there is no need for extra oil, we can

postpone the decision on the extra 500,000 barrels per day. It depends on the

market situation and the prices,' he said.

'We can make a new decision about if we want to suspend the August

increase, otherwise the 500,000 bpd increase does not need to be approved

again,' he added.

'We have already said we want to have a balanced market situation.'

Faced with record highs on world markets, OPEC had announced June 3 it

would raise production quotas by 2 mln bpd on July 1, and by another

500,000 bpd on August 1.

But signs of wavering on the promise from key cartel producers, including

Saudi Arabia, have kept prices buoyant.

Zanganeh's remarks followed similar comments on Wednesday from Saudi Oil

Minister Ali al-Nuaimi, who said current prices were 'fair' and that there was

'no reason to take a measure to reduce or increase production' when OPEC meets

on July 21.

Iran is the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries' number two

exporter after Saudi Arabia.

The minister was also asked if Iran would be asking OPEC for an increase in

its daily production quota.

'No, we have not made such a request,' he said. 'But there is general

discussion going on in OPEC to work out a new quota system. These discussions

will take a long time. It needs a consensus among all members.'

He also predicted that by the end of the current Iranian year in March

2005, Iranian production capacity would reach 4.3 mln bpd.

Iran's current quota is 3.744 mln bpd, and its production and capacity

are around 3.9 mln bpd.

Sterling own 100% of Fusion Mauritania A* so this is the connection we have been looking for.




Premier Oil PLC
05 July 2004



PREMIER OIL PLC
('Premier')


Premier Announces Major Drilling Campaign in Mauritania


Premier is pleased to announce that the Mauritania joint venture partners have
now agreed the details of the 2004 exploration and appraisal drilling campaign.


Exploration and appraisal drilling will commence in August 2004 and continue
until the commencement of Chinguetti development drilling in the fourth quarter
of 2004. Five exploration wells are planned in PSC Areas A and B, with up to
four appraisal wells on the Tiof discovery (PSC B).


The exploration programme embraces a wide range of prospects in respect of size
and risk. Three prospects are located in PSC B, namely Tevet, Capitaine and
Merou. Tevet is a lower risk prospect with potential to be the first satellite
tie-back to the Chinguetti 'hub'. Capitaine and Merou both have the potential to
be similar in size to Tiof, as does Sotto, which lies in PSC Area A. The Bogue
prospect lies primarily in PSC A and extends into PSC B. This prospect is higher
risk and is targetting significantly larger reserves. All five prospects have
reservoir targets of Miocene age, similar to those that have been successful in
Chinguetti, Tiof, and Banda. Other prospects in the PSCs have been identified
and may be drilled in place of the above prospects subject to drilling results
or ongoing geological studies.


The drilling programme on Chinguetti field will follow on in the fourth quarter
of 2004 and will comprise up to six oil production wells, four water injection
wells and one gas injection well as part of the phase 1 development (PSC B).


The twenty-well exploration, appraisal, and development drilling campaign will
utilise two deep-water drilling rigs, the Stena Tay and West Navigator, which
will work in tandem and operate in water depths ranging from 300m to 1700m.




Charles Jamieson, Chief Executive of Premier, said:


'In conjunction with wells also drilling in Gabon, Pakistan, Egypt and
Indonesia, we are about to enter the busiest period of drilling activity in
Premier's history.'




5 July 2004




ENQUIRIES:

Premier Oil plc Tel: 020 7730 1111
Charles Jamieson
Robin Allan


College Hill Tel: 020 7457 2020
James Henderson
Nick Elwes


Background For Editors:


Premier Oil plc is a leading independent oil and gas company with producing
interests in the UK, Indonesia and Pakistan. Exploration and appraisal is
ongoing in the UK, South and South East Asia (Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam,
Pakistan and India) and Africa (Mauritania, Guinea Bissau, Gabon and Egypt).



The current partners and interests in PSC A and PSC B in Mauritania are:


Company PSC A PSC B

% %
Woodside 53.846 53.846
BG Group 13.084 11.630
Hardman Resources 24.300 21.600
Fusion Mauritania A* 4.615 -
Premier - 9.231
ROC Oil 4.155 3.693






The Government of Mauritania has the right to back in to 12% equity in
developments producing less than 75,000 barrels of oil per day.


*Premier will take up 100% ownership of Fusion Mauritania A (currently owned by
Sterling Energy and Premier) on completion of the transaction announced on 28
May 2003.


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

Sold my Hardman Stock this morning on the high. This is my play money so I will buy in and sell quite often on this stock while it is worth it.

Still hold Sterling.

all good news...