.

It's going to get interesting here...that's for sure and I'm getting my plan ready for playing these fabulous falkland wildcats !.....

FOGL has more cash than BOR.

FOGL is drilling 2 bigger prospects than BOR.

FOGL has more prospective resources than BOR.

And yet FOGL is half the market cap of BOR - which kind of suggests FOGL is grossly undervalued - but you get this condition when someone is selling. The overhang will clear soon and then the price will zoom.

Rig has arrived safely and is now east of the Falklands Islands in Falklands waters, in the Berkeley Sound.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=308243000&centerx=-57.76173&centery=-51.57527&zoom=10&type_color=9


So spudding of BOR's first well is now due very soon. Should BOR strike the impact on both BOR and FOGL will be immense (more so to BOR but in no small way to FOGL as well at this stage given their market cap is half of BOR at the moment).

The more big names getting involved the better for all Falklands companies. My guess is they are looking into the situation ahead of the southern drills, using RKH's show as an excuse to take a look at the whole set up there, for the southern drills are big enough to warrant a big name getting involved, if the SFB drills by BOR and FOGL strike oil.


www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article860553.ece

Texans fly into Falklands for Rockhopper talks
Ben Marlow and Danny Fortson

The Sunday Times Published: 22 January 2012

The American oil giant that partnered BP on the ill-fated Deepwater Horizon oil platform is considering a move on Rockhopper, the Falklands explorer. It is understood that a team of executives from Anadarko Petroleum, the $40 billion oil group, flew to the Falklands last week to meet.....................................

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/01/22/falklands-confirms-second-oil-rig-has-reached-the-islands-spudding-planned-for-monday

Sunday, January 22nd 2012 - 05:44 UTC

Falklands confirms second oil rig has reached the Islands; spudding planned for Monday

Falklands oil industry sources confirmed that the semi-submersible Leiv Eiriksson oil exploration rig has reached Falklands’ waters and should be spudding its first well next Monday.


“Yes, she’s here and getting ready for Monday. She’s a real nice state of the art baby” said the Falklands sources.

Early in the day the Buenos Aires press quoting sources at Argentina’s Defence and Foreign Affairs ministries said that the oil rig flagged in Bahamas and contracted by Borders & Southern Plc and Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd (FOGL) had been detected approaching Malvinas waters.

The rig is expected to begin drilling next week two wells to the south and southeast of the Malvinas Islands.

According to the Buenos Aires media the rig was spotted by a maritime routine flight from an Orion P3-B belonging to the Argentina Air Naval service which took pictures of the vessel while sailing 547 miles east of Comodoro Rivadavia.

Apparently these maritime air patrols are routine as part of Argentina, together with South Africa, international responsibility to safeguard human lives and shipping in the vast South Atlantic.

The Buenos Aires press reported that the two exploratory wells to be drilled for Borders & Southern Plc are “very close to the Argentine 200 miles continental platform outer limit”.

Since the announcement November 2010 of the contracting of the Leif Eiriksson, “several Argentine offices among them the Malvinas and South Atlantic Desk at the Foreign Affairs ministry (Ambassador Sebastian Brugo Marcó) and the Office of Strategic Intelligence from the Ministry of Defence (Lourdes Puente de Lopez Llovet)”, began tracking the course of the rig from Greenland to the Falklands, with the help of shipping webs in the internet that show maritime traffic worldwide.

So far two other oil companies have been involved in the current round of exploratory drilling in Falklands’ waters which started in 2010: Desire Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration Plc. Between them they have drilled over twenty wells with the ‘Ocean Guardian’ exploratory rig which left for Scotland in mid January.

Both companies found traces of oil and gas in several wells, but the real promising commercial discovery was done at the Sea Lion prospect where Rockhopper estimates there are 500 million barrels of good light crude.

However to undertake such a task, estimated in over two billion dollars, Rockhopper contracted Bank of America-Merrill Lynch to help find an investor that is interested in sharing such a promising potential.

All this with the background of the escalating conflict between London and Buenos Aires, which according to Argentine sources makes the whole operation even more risky since there is “an ongoing unsolved sovereignty dispute, with ample support for Argentina from neighbouring countries”.

.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9030392/Offshore-oil-drilling-in-South-Atlantic-could-lead-to-North-Sea-style-boom.html

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Love that map in the article - shows the men from the boys.......... :)

??????????????????????

Nice strong day.

BOR market cap 320 million.

FOG market cap 195 million.

FOGL has more cash, more prospective resources, more licenses and drilling 2 wells same as BOR. But of course, number 1 well for FOGL is twice as big as the two wells of BOR combined.

Says FOGL is greatly undervalued still.

no it's not for you are presupposing that either of the above will find anything other than sand and water

Cynic,

I do think that you often argue for arguments sake.

So by your logic, if you have say 10 chances of finding oil and another company has only say 1 then that would not make the first companies prospects better than the second.
Posts like your last will only have the effect of making readers view your sensible posts (and you do post them) with incredibility.

smacked wrist perhaps deserved :-) but i do get a bit fed up with a certain person telling us all what marvellous value fogl is and that it must and most assuredly will strike a bonanza when there is nothing to support that other than unproven seismic study and similar

and of course i argue for argument's sake - it's part of my cultural heritage!

I must admit that arguing for its own sake, is something my wife thinks about me.
I do agree that the continuing, 'This can't fail' comments can be very annoying, whether its Fogl, or any of the FI oilies.
I have lost count of the times I have seen posts stating 'Can't fail' referring to shares in companies, and yet as soon as you post anything that suggests they just might, you are knocked down as a de-ramper.
So perhaps smacked wrists all round.

can't argue with that ROTFL

It looks like the sp will rise a lot in the coming weeks.....if you check out their web site : they have an incredible number of prospects to choose from and drill.....more than four billion barrels to target : that's huge......just the possibility of them hitting one of these prospects should in my view send the sp way up...it might not but there sure is far more upside than downside at the moment.....if BOR hit something this will follow if they don't it will drop and then recover.....looks like a fab punt doesn't it ?.

required field, you hit the nail on the head there. There are 4 types of play in the South Falklands Basin thats being drilled this time. BOR are drilling 2 of them and FOGL the other 2.

BUT FOGL has many leads that are the same type as BOR.

Which means if BOR strike there is big upside for FOGL (as presently they are valued at cash near enough), but if BOR fail in either or both of their wells FOGL can legitimately say that the results have no impact at all on their 2 wells coming, and its correct, as FOGL plan to drill 2 different play types.

Which is why many people are now opening their eyes to FOGL as a very good way of betting on BOR success whilst minimising the downside on BOR failure.

Plenty more buying............

Here is a laugh for you all....pro the clown of the boards posted this last year...


Pro,

Do you or anyone else remember this:


Pro_S2009 - 30 Dec'10 - 10:30 - 14163 of 31471

Gazz, well yes, its adding to 2010 profits and subtracting on the potential in 2011, however, my "best case" upside target for 2011 is £21 - so its not having that much of an effect on the percentage rise to best case upside... ;)


Pro_S2009 - 21 Dec'10 - 00:34 - 14029 of 31470

First of all, this first well has nothing to do with the present estimate of Sea Lion being 170 million recoverable barrels, as it is being drilled outside the defined Sea Lion area. It also has nothing to do with the potential upgrade to 242 million recoverable barrels, again as it being drilled outside the present Sea Lion defined discovery area.

However, take this in :

......."If successful the northern lobe has the potential to largely de-risk the P10 upside case for Sea Lion (669mmb). In addition the well will target a deeper fan which covers an area of 42sq km which has the potential to be a material target given the P10 estimate for the shallower targets assumes a real extent of 55sq km........


First of all, it is testing the P10 669 million recoverable barrels area, BUT it is also targeting a second fan, of some 45sq km, which if that contains oil too, would suddenly make Sea Lion potentially over 1 billion barrels recoverable... an absolute giant of a find and one which on its own would make the North Falklands commercial as a new producing region.

Pretty exciting giving the share price still is undervaluing the "defined" Sea Lion discovery area, which is nothing to do with the 1st drill, however the potential is there to make the NFB commercial and define a new discovery area of 1 billion barrels recoverable (and all 100% owned).

People can talk down the Falklands as much as they want to, that is their right, however I am playing to make money and RKH could make its present holders very very rich overnight with that 1st drill.

1 billion barrels @ 8.5 US$ a barrel in the ground = £5.5 billion market cap, or an easy 7 times the current share price.

And that is just one "lobe" of the potential Sea Lion extension area, there is still the Southern undefined lobe to test as well.

And that excludes the other potential leads of George, Chatham, Fox, Stephens, Jason etc....

Anyone who think that RKH cannot go up much in 2011 is clearly mad, it has risks yes, but as the present share price ignores a quater of a billion pounds in cash and the most of the current Sea Lion defined 170MMBO the risk is small, and there is magnificent potential upside and RKH is my stock pick for 2011.



THE CHILD IS A CLOWN