Tullow Oil plc is one of the largest independent oil and gas, exploration and production companies in Europe. Tullow Oil produces over 56,000 boepd, with a primary focus on UK Gas and West African Oil, underpinned by development projects in the UK, Africa and South Asia.

            Red = 25 day moving average.           Green = 200 day moving average.

Is that right m2 ? we shall see then.

Took a long position this morning.

Tullow Oil TLW, SP bouncing from long term support/resistance line at 400p, good chance of move up to next resistance at 600p pretty quick time and then hoping from a break up through it.

ADX TA indicator positive at +30



Broker Recommendations...

Tullow Oil PLC

SUMMARY CHARTS DIRECTOR DEALINGS FORECASTS WIRES
2008 2009
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
24-11-08 ADD 288.69 19.89 6.30 183.34 10.27 6.60
Exane BNP Paribas
24-11-08 HOLD 676.00 20.65 6.00 187.00 11.38 6.00
Numis Securities Ltd
21-11-08 BUY 31.90 19.90
Charles Stanley
21-11-08 HOLD
Davy Stockbrokers
21-11-08 None 25.70 6.30 21.40 6.60
Oriel Securities
20-11-08 BUY 293.00 22.40 6.50 309.00 24.60 7.00
Merrion Stockbrokers
17-11-08 BUY 27.70 6.00 37.70 6.50
Evolution Securities Ltd
01-11-08 BUY 359.40 9.70 6.00 388.90 33.50 6.30
Goodbody Stockbrokers
21-10-08 ADD 34.30 6.50 30.20 7.00
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd
21-10-08 BUY 25.72 4.70 23.17 4.79
ABN AMRO
29-08-08 BUY 278.79 21.24 6.50 359.68 27.26 7.00

2008 2009
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 307.92 23.37 6.25 327.21 23.93 6.59
1 Month Change -9.72 -0.48 -0.04 -27.44 -4.79 -0.07
3 Month Change -85.55 0.50 -0.01 -35.92 -5.20 -0.03


GROWTH
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
Norm. EPS -37.96% 31.92% 2.40%
DPS 10.00% 13.64% 5.44%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
EBITDA 471.81m 539.72m 491.75m
EBIT 266.01m 362.69m 287.30m
Dividend Yield 1.18% 1.34% 1.41%
Dividend Cover 3.22x 3.74x 3.63x
PER 26.36x 19.98x 19.52x
PEG -0.69f 0.63f 8.14f
Net Asset Value PS -36.05p 141.43p 144.81p

Not far to go for 600p now, and then we are trully well and away.

Chart showing bullish double bottom and positive secondary indicators.

With demand falling, there is no way oil will reach $200 in the short to medium term...



Oil to hit $25 a barrel as global recession deepens, Merrill Lynch predicts

Oil prices could tumble below $25 a barrel next year if the global recession reaches China, investment bank Merrill Lynch has predicted.

The prediction that the crude prices could revisit lows last seen in 2002 led to a plunge in energy shares on Wall Street and sent the Dow Jones index down 215 points - or 2.5pc.

"With demand vanishing across all key oil consuming regions, benchmark crude oil prices continue to plummet," Merrill said in a research note. "A temporary drop below $25 a barrel is possible if the global recession extends to China."

Oil fell below $43 barrel overnight as crude oil heads for its biggest weekly decline since March 2003. Since the US was declared to be in recession earlier this week the price has fallen 19pc.

"The connection is pretty clear - fewer people in jobs is a clear sign of a weakening economy,'' said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney.

"As unemployment rises, GDP falls and oil demand falls. It's not likely to show much hope for the economy.''

bet Merrill also said oil to hit $200 when it was +/-$140 ..... just another bunch od so-called analyst arseholes!

my money will very shortly be placed long on a Nymex contract, so that is my view

Looking horny again.

best trading in and out of this one.

long at moment.

Great news this morning.....apart from the low oil price, TLW and HOIL looking rather good !.

Broker upgrade.....

TULLOW OIL

FORECASTS
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-12-08 BUY 407.30 14.90 527.30 45.40

Moving up nicely now on a day which looks too red for my liking.

I see brokers have a target SP for TLW in a range from around 850p to 1200p which makes the current SP look rather stingy.

A lot more to come here i think.

An upsurge in oil prices might be on the way with the new year coming and cold weather here until march at least.

From The Times December 13, 2008

Expert cuts $200-a-barrel oil forecast to $45
Robin Pagnamenta, Energy and Environment Editor

The leading Goldman Sachs oil analyst, who had been one of the market's biggest bulls this year, predicting that crude could hit $200 a barrel, has slashed his 2009 forecast to $45, blaming incredibly weak demand as the global economy plunges into recession.

Arjun Murti, the New York energy analyst for the US investment bank, came to prominence in 2005, when he was among the first to predict accurately a superspike in prices to more than $100 a barrel. For each of the successive three years, his forecasts were consistently higher - and usually closer to the mark - than those of most of his peers.

However, Mr Murti was left red-faced this autumn when his prediction that prices could reach $200 proved far-fetched. Instead, they nosedived from a high of $147 a barrel on July 11 to $48.50 yesterday.

In a research note published late on Thursday, Mr Murti's team said that it had been compelled to trim its average price outlook for next year to $45, from a previously reduced forecast of $75, because of a continued deterioration in global oil demand.

The note read: Global economic conditions are the weakest the world has seen since at least the early 1980s and demand is declining at an accelerating rate.

Mr Murti added that demand for crude was so weak that Opec, the cartel of 13 oil-producing nations, which will meet next week in Algeria, would be unable to force prices higher through further production cuts.

We think that the sharp and sudden collapse in global oil demand exceeds Opec's ability to, on its own, balance markets, and necessitates sharply lower non-Opec crude-oil supply, the report said.

Nevertheless, Mr Murti also asserted that there were signs that crude prices could be close to a turning point. We see a growing number of signs that oil markets have entered the bottoming phase of the cycle, the report said, adding that positive demand growth and shrinking non-Opec supply would push prices to $70 a barrel by 2010 and to $105 by 2012.

We do not believe oil markets are on track for a decade-plus period of weakness like seen in the 1980s and 1990s, the report said.

In a separate study published yesterday, another group of Goldman commodities analysts predicted that world oil demand would fall by 1.7 million barrels a day, helping to drive oil prices down to as low as $30 a barrel in the first quarter of next year.

We expect that an additional 2 million barrels per day of Opec supply cuts will be required in 2009, along with a 600,000 barrels per day reduction in non-Opec production, in order to rebalance the market, the analysts wrote.

Frankly, even for the experts it's just a guess as to which way oil is going to go, with a cold winter here in Northern Europe and a big demand for heating oil, gas, and production cuts from Opec, I would have liked to think that a rise might be on the cards; but I have to admit that it's always North America that seems to have the final say, a cold winter up there and their car industry put back on track with some input from Washington coupled with Opec restrictions might trigger a little recovery around the new year !.

For once and probably only once, I agree with you although I suspect the recovery will be a little later.

Crikey !, somebody agrees with me, jeepers !, never expected that !, I must open a bottle of something !, now let me see : Dom perignon, Moet, Chateau Vintage....hmmmm...seem to be out of bubbly...oh well, must make do with a can of beer !.

Well i agree with you RF, what about sharing a bottle of meths?.

Only kidding.

But surely the sentiment issue coming from OPEC will have a direct effect on the oil price for a while.

Well there's a very cold snap on the North American east coast, we shall see what effect that will have on crude and gas prices in the next few days.

Another strike, TLW turning into a Cairn ?,tremendous results for the 2 partners (Tlw an Hoil) in Uganda.....if only Idi had known, he must be cursing from his grave !.

Glad to be holding but I prefer DNX.

Holding both !.