This should put the cat amongst the pigeons today :-

Government scraps $9 billion West Coast rail deal

LONDON | Wed Oct 3, 2012 5:10am BST

(Reuters) - Britain scrapped on Wednesday a $9 billion (5.5 billion pounds) deal that had awarded the West Coast rail line to FirstGroup Plc, citing flaws in the government's figures, just a day after the company had said it was prepared to take over the key mainline train service this year.

FirstGroup in August won the 13-year deal for the London-to-Scotland line with a bid of around 6 billion pounds, but the decision was challenged by Virgin Trains, a joint venture between high-profile billionaire Richard Branson's Virgin Group and Stagecoach.

Statement re: InterCity West Coast Franchise Award

Personally think this is a blessing in disguise

Joe - yes its ironic!

FirstGroup runs a number of bus and rail services across the UK.

Shares in FirstGroup fell recently on the news that it might lose the West Coast rail franchise (it was expected to start running the franchise in December). For this reason, forecasts on FirstGroup's future profitability are not reliable.

It appears, however, that this possible loss is no fault of FirstGroup's. The question for investors is what FirstGroup's long-term profitability will be without the West Coast operations.

Looking back, FirstGroup delivered an operating profit of £448m for 2012. This translated to 31.2p of earnings per share (eps) and a dividend of 23.7p. That equals a historic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and yield of 7.8 and 9.8% respectively.

Debts at FirstGroup are high in relation to the company's market cap. However, this type of business typically delivers reliable cash flows and faces little competition. The recent kerfuffle may be an excellent opportunity to grab a high-yielding transport operator at a temporarily depressed price.

Already grabbed and waiting.,,.

West Coast Main Line: Taxpayers 'at risk' in rail bid

All bidders for the West Coast rail franchise were offering too little protection to protect taxpayers against potential losses, the BBC has learned.

The BBC's Robert Peston says that the "entire bidding process was flawed".

Taxpayers would therefore have been exposed to potential losses, he added.

Place your bets.

Virgin to run West Coast route 'for at least nine months'

We know what has hit FirstGroup of late -- the cancellation of its new West Coast Main Line contract after the bidding process was scrapped. The shares have been trading very close to their 52-week low of 184p this week, though they're up a bit at 190p today. Is the depressed price fair, or are the shares oversold?

Well, the company must be worth at least what it was before the rail franchise fiasco, mustn't it? Current forecasts put the shares on a prospective P/E of only 6.3, with a massive 13% dividend yield forecast for the year to March 2013. However, that payment would barely be covered by earnings and there must be a good chance the forecasts are optimistic. Still, with a valuation so low, there is room for a significant dividend cut and the income yield remaining attractive.

We have interim figures from FirstGroup due on Wednesday. FirstGroup's shares plunged when its newly won West Coast rail franchise was cancelled at the beginning of last month due to irregularities in the handling of the bids by the Department of Transport . Since then, the price has picked up a little to 206p, but it's still around 40% down on the year.

At the time of FirstGroup's last trading update, things were in line with expectations, but that was the day before the franchise news broke. Forecasts suggest a full-year dividend of 12%, but that's looking very uncertain. And there's a lot of debt on the books. But with the shares on a P/E of under 7, we could have a nice recovery prospect on our hands.

Already in and waiting, keep going!!!

Half-yearly Report


Overview:

* Overall Group trading during the first half of the year is in line with our
expectations, despite continued economic uncertainty. As previously
indicated, the results reflect the anticipated reductions in operating
profit for UK Bus, where we are taking action to reposition the business
and restore growth, and in UK Rail as a result of the transition to the
three year extension period in First TransPennine Express.

* We are focused on our goals of improved performance and sustainable growth
across the Group and are confident that our actions will create a stronger
business for the future. While there is still more to do, we are pleased
with the progress of the actions we have taken so far.

* The Department for Transport (DfT) has cancelled the InterCity West Coast
competition, in which FirstGroup had been chosen as the winning bidder, and
has paused the current rail franchise competitions. As a result of the
uncertainty this creates, the Board has decided to hold the interim
dividend at last year's level, and will consider the appropriate level for
the full year dividend in May 2013. By that time, the prospects for our UK
Rail division are expected to be clearer, following independent reviews
into the cancellation of the West Coast competition and the future of
franchising.

* As the UK's largest and most successful rail operator, we remain committed
to maintaining our leading position in the rail market and are actively
engaging with the ongoing reviews to help shape the future of franchising.

Operating highlights:

* First Student - progress from a more efficient operating model that we have
established.

* First Transit - continued steady growth across all core segments with a
healthy pipeline of business.

* Greyhound - a transformed business with attractive new products such as
Greyhound Express. The highly flexible operating model we have created is
mitigating the effects of a sluggish economic environment.

* UK Bus - progressing our extensive programme to reposition the business and
create a firmer footing to deliver sustainable growth. We remain confident
in our plans and encouraged by positive early signs in some of our markets.

* UK Rail - strong growth across all of our rail franchises and high levels
of performance > 90% punctuality and reliability.

A couple of big gaps here.

SP will learn to jump, lol..... in profit now.

Ex Div date wednesday. 7.6p

Interim Management Statement

FirstGroup plc ("the Group") the leading transport operator in the UK and North
America, reports the following update on trading from 1 October to 31 December
2012 ("the period" or "the third quarter").

Overview

Trading for the Group, excluding the one-off effect of Hurricane Sandy, during
the third quarter was in line with our expectations. Despite the economic
conditions that prevail, we continue to strengthen the business for the future
by taking actions that will lead to improved performance and sustainable
growth.

We were pleased by continued strong support from fixed income investors in
November, which led to our issue of £325m of 10-year bonds being significantly
oversubscribed. The proceeds were used to pay down debt, as part of our
strategy to reduce reliance on bank borrowings and extend our debt maturity
profile.

First Student

The roll out of management actions across the business continues to underpin
performance and strengthen the operating model of First Student. Although there
is significant work still to be done, we remain on track with our plans and the
business is set on the path to recovery. A significant amount of our operations
were disrupted by Hurricane Sandy in late October. The storm, which affected
the entire eastern seaboard, parts of the Midwest and Eastern Canada, impacted
some 130 of our locations and led to the closure of schools for up to nine
days. This is expected to adversely impact operating profit by approximately
$15m in 2012/13. Nevertheless, our current expectations for underlying margin
performance for the full year remain broadly unchanged.

First Transit

Our transit division generated good operating results from its range of
operations, the majority of which require low capital investment. A strong
performance was achieved with good revenue growth particularly within our core
operations. We continue to see good contract retention rates and develop
opportunities from a healthy pipeline of new contract bids. We are proactively
working through a small number of historic legal claims within First Transit.
As a result, settlement discussions have now been scheduled for February 2013
in respect of historic meal and rest break claims in the Fixed Route and
Paratransit businesses which date back to 2003.

Greyhound

During the period like-for-like revenue growth was 1.6%, with Greyhound's US
operations continuing to achieve a strong performance. Against the backdrop of
a sluggish economy, operating margin performance remains in line with our
expectations as a result of the actions we have taken. These actions have
transformed the business and created a more flexible and agile operating model.
We continue to expand our popular Express product and build on the unique
strength of our national network in providing support for sustainable flows on
newly launched services as we roll out across more destinations. During the
period we expanded Express service to new states including Louisiana, Oklahoma,
Nevada and Ontario, Canada.

UK Bus

Like-for-like passenger revenue growth was 2.1% in the period. Notwithstanding
the challenging economic environment which continues to affect many of the
urban areas in which we operate, we are making headway with our detailed plan
to recover performance and equip the business to achieve increased revenue and
patronage growth. We continue to work through our programme of disposals. In
November 2012 we agreed the sale of our Birkenhead and Chester operations for £
4.5m and today we are pleased to announce the sale of our Kidderminster and
Redditch bus businesses to Rotala PLC for a gross consideration of £1.5m. While
there remains considerable work to be done across our UK Bus division, we are
encouraged by early positive signs in some of our markets. As previously
stated, we expect UK Bus operating margin to be approximately 8% for the full
year.

UK Rail
Our rail division continues to benefit from strong passenger growth across all
of our franchises and like-for-like revenue increased by 8.1% in the period. We
welcomed the publication of the independent review by Richard Brown on 10
January which called for an early return to refranchising so that the private
sector can continue to provide effective and efficient passenger rail services
with further performance and infrastructure improvements. As the UK's largest
and most experienced rail operator, we remain committed to maintaining a
leading position in the market. We look forward to receiving details on the
recommencement of the franchise process and submitting further high quality
bids that deliver for passengers, taxpayers and shareholders. During the period
the Scottish Government announced that the ScotRail franchise will now end on
31 March 2015, from its previous end date of 9 November 2014.

Trading Statement

PRE-CLOSE TRADING UPDATE

FirstGroup plc ("the Group") reports the following update on trading for its
financial year ended 31 March 2013 ("the year" or "the period"), ahead of its
preliminary results due to be announced on 22 May 2013.

Summary

* Overall trading in line with management's expectations

* Sale of eight UK Bus depots in London for a combined consideration of
approximately £80m after the period

* Recovery programmes in First Student and UK Bus on track

* First Transit achieved strong contract performance and sale of Support
Services, consistent with strategy to focus on core businesses

* Greyhound Express continues to expand, offsetting the impact of the weaker
economy

* Continued strong passenger volume and revenue growth in UK Rail

Investec has retained its 'hold' rating and 200p target price for transport firm FirstGroup after the firm's pre-closing trading update which showed that trading was broadly in line during the fourth quarter.

Investec analyst John Lawson said: "The turnaround of FirstGroup is a slow process and, despite the planned sale of the London bus business, debt remains high and the future DPS [dividend per share] is still unclear (at present, we forecast an unchanged DPS, but this could change in May when the board makes a formal decision). The underlying trading trends look mixed (some OK, some less good), so not too much to get excited about here."

came out earier at small profit at 211p should have taken 217 when it was there.,.