http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

1m traded??? Buys or sells or what %age of each?

RKH is clearly over-rated, with recent loss widening, it still look expensive at 74p.

loss has only went from 1.41 to 1.47.....hardly dramatic.

farm-ins plus drilling consortium will knock this back up......anyway i'm holding for drilling even if it is for another year.....so stuff the short termers

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Shares in Rockhopper Exploration Plc. were hard-hit in midmorning deals, as it posted a widened pretax loss, leading Daniel Stewart to keep a 'sell' rating on the stock.
At 10:32 a.m., Rockhopper Exploration shares were 17 pence down to 71-3/4 pence, as the FTSE Small Cap index dropped 31.0 points to 2,736.2.
Earlier on Thursday, the oil and gas exploration company reported a wider full-year pretax loss and said its target is to drill between two and four wells on its acreages.
In reaction, Daniel Stewart left a 'sell' rating on the stock, noting that the group gives no new news on drilling timetables.
The broker notes that the group confirms all technical issues on its acreage have been resolved and that it is close to completing the interpretation of its 3D analysis.
But on actual drilling, Daniel Stewart notes that timescales are continually being pushed outwards and drilling -- or a deal of any kind -- is not, in any way, imminent.
Leaving a 25 pence price target on the group, the broker said it continues to think investors' money is better placed elsewhere within the sector, such as in a company with an active drilling campaign.

Well at least FOGL has BHP/BLT as a farm in partner which is more than any of the other Falkland oily hopefuls.

daniel stewart reputation is in tatters as it recently had des for 30p but even more recently tipped it for 150p i think....certainly more than a quid.....so about 4 or 5 times increase from prev estimate.

rkh mention 2009....they can hardly give exact timing as yet, god...daniel stewart seem to have woeful people

it doesnt matter if u r drilling right now anyway as market is kicking everything

dont buy anything until next year....i'm holding some of these as long term

Yep you are right scotinvestor don't buy anything until next year, the markets still have to correct a fair bit yet. A wise man would have got out at xmas and held his cash but who was to know same as you in for the long term it will come back one day. Mind you I may be averaging down a touch!!!.

daniel stewart should look at their own share price.....its in tatters!

and with woeful wild forecasting based on nothing but sentiment, i cant imagine them attracting many if any investors

Rockhopper Plunges on Loss, Still in Drilling Talks (Update1)

By Maren Naess Olsen

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Rockhopper Exploration Plc, an oil and gas explorer, fell the most in more than two years after saying its net loss widened and that it's still ``talking'' to contractors about drilling oil and gas wells near the Falkland Islands next year.

Rockhopper fell 14 percent to 76 pence in London, valuing the company at 60.9 million pounds ($120.7 million). That's the steepest drop since June 2006.

``At the end of the day you need to drill a well,'' said Tim Heeley, an analyst at Daniel Stewart & Co, in a telephone interview. ``Until they do that it's all speculation.'' Heeley has a ``sell'' rating on the stock, which has risen 49 percent this year.

Rockhopper's net loss for the fiscal year ended March 31 widened to $1.47 million, or 1.95 cents a share, from a loss of $1.41 million, or 1.97 cents a share, a year earlier, the Salisbury, England-based company said in a statement distributed by the Regulatory News Service today.

``We are now talking to a number of rig contractors about drilling in the North Falkland Basin during 2009,'' the company said in the statement. ``It is also possible that we could join a drilling consortium with the explorers to the south and east of the Falkland Islands.''

Rockhopper announced earlier this year that it had identified five prospects for oil and gas exploration in the North Falklands Basin after seismic mapping.

To contact the reporter on this story: Maren Naess Olsen in London molsen10@bloomberg.net.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=adziHtraIRRM&refer=uk

Brokers note from Oriel

This note initiates coverage on four companies (Falklands Oil and Gas*,
Desire Petroleum, Borders & Southern, Rockhopper Exploration). The
group offers UK investors the opportunity to participate in high-impact
exploration in one of the last frontier exploration areas in the E&P
industry. All of these companies offer massive upside potential, but
they already have a combined EV of over 500mn, suggesting that
investors need to understand the key risks in each investment case.
Massive upside potential

The Falkland Islands is one of the few remaining frontier areas in the E&P
sector. It is divided into two independent areas, the North Falkland basin, and the Southern Falkland basins. The North is possibly lower risk as drilling in 1998 indicated the presence of an active hydrocarbon system, but individual prospect sizes are smaller although still material, in the order of 150-500mmb. The South is currently virgin exploration territory, but prospects identified to date are typically an order of magnitude larger 1,000-3,000mmb each and the BHP Biliton farm-in on Falkland Oil and Gas*
acreage has provided industry validation of the prospectivity of the area.
Fiscal terms are excellent, befitting the frontier nature of the basins, with a commercial undeveloped discovery likely to be worth cUS$15/bbl based on current oil prices. On the downside, we would point out the chance of outright failure is significant. Valuations are speculative Ascribing sensible valuations for all four companies is highly subjective given they have no tangible assets and the exploration portfolios are high-risk with little well control in either basin on targeted plays. However, in this note we highlight the upside in the event of success which is material based on just
the wells expected from the first drilling programmes. Near-term newsflow centred on securing rigsdrilling likely 2009/10
For most of the companies (Borders & Southern excepted), prospect
identification has been completed and planning has moved to securing rigs
for future drilling campaigns. The farm-out by Falklands Oil and Gas* and the proposed farm-out by Desire to an unnamed party has ignited investor
interest in the region as the prospect of drilling comes closer to reality. If rigs can be contracted over the next few months (and funding secured) then drilling could take place as early as next year.

Summary views
We initiate Falklands Oil and Gas* and Desire Petroleum with
SPECULATIVE BUY recommendations, with these stocks holding the prime
acreage in the respective Southern and Northern Basins. Borders and
Rockhopper are initiated with HOLD recommendations.


Falklands overviewfrontier exploration
The Falklands is split into two separate provinces the North Falklands Basin and the East (or Falklands Plateau) and South Falklands Basins, collectively referred to as the Southern Basins. Whilst there was limited drilling in 1998 in the North Falklands, confirming the presence of oil, the South Falklands Basins have yet to be drilled. There are four quoted companies in the region two in the North (Desire Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration) and two in the South (Falklands Oil and Gas and Borders & Southern). Over the last 3 years significant volumes of seismic data have been acquired by the companies along with CSEM surveys, and they are now at the point of having derisked their prospect inventories as much as they can (Borders work nearing completion) and are ready to drill.

Company Summary
All four companies have focussed portfolios, only holding acreage in the
Falklands area. Borders is looking for other low-cost, high return opportunities but has yet to find an area as attractive as the Falklands to add to the portfolio. This focus maximises investor returns in the event of a discovery, but the lack of internal competition may mean that the wells remain high risk even when they are drilled. Therefore third party validation through a farm-in, preferably from a major international oil company, is very important to ensure that prospects are really drill ready, hence the significance of the BHP deal with Falklands Oil and Gas.

Falklands Oil & Gas* (FOGL, BUY, 150p)
Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) has a large acreage position in the South
Falklands covering 49,000 sq km. Its licences cover multiple play types and
over 100 identified leads and prospects have been identified to date which have resource potential of c60bnboe (individual prospect sizes range from 500-3,500mmb). A number of prospects have positive AVO and CSEM indicators. The lack of drilling to date in the Southern Basins means that source will remain the key risk until tested although adjacent basins and test drilling to the east give some cause for optimism.
FOGL farmed down its interests to BHP Billiton last year and the partner group is now actively seeking a rig for a likely 4 well drilling campaign, allowing a number of independent play types to be tested. FOGL is partially carried by BHP on its 49% interest (2 wells) but a 4 well programme will require additional funding over and above current cash resources of c12mn (or a secondary farm-out). The company has the ability to farm-down its equity further and we have assumed a fully carried 25% interest in our indicative valuations. Based on our current oil price assumptions, we see risked upside of 14x the current share price based on the first 4 prospects to be drilled and >90x on an unrisked basis.
We initiate with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation. The company has put together a robust geological profile for the Southern Basins which has
addressed a large number of risks pre-drill and the size and number of
prospects is impressive. The BHP Billiton farm-out has added credibility to the acreage and FOGLs technical work but the prospects clearly remain high risk ahead of drilling.

Desire Petroleum (DES, BUY, 87.5p)
Desire holds 4000 sq kms in the North Falklands Basin, of which c50% is close to the area where the wells were drilled in the 1998 campaign, and the prospects in this area should be at least partially de-risked by the data gathered in that campaign. Desire has identified 18 prospects that are thought to contain over 4bn boe of prospective resources. As these prospects are spread across a number of different plays types, some of which have been partially tested, Desires portfolio should be comparatively lower risk. However the average prospect size is 250mmbbls, and a single small discovery (<100mmb) could be marginal due
to the remote location. Desire accepted the terms of a farm-in offer for three of the 18 prospects on 25 February 2008. The farm-in remains subject to approval by the Falklands Government, but if successfully approved it will involve the drilling of two exploration wells at no cost to Desire. The farm-in partner has yet to be announced, but industry speculation suggests that it is likely to be Arcadia, the oil trading house that farmed-into Tower Resources acreage in Namibia. Assuming the farm-in deal completes Desire is expected to be fully funded for a 4 well programme. We initiate with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation as we see that Desire offers substantial upside potential from a possibly lower risk exploration programme in a partially proven basin. The programme is also expected to be fully funded (assuming successful farm-out), which reduces financial risks.

Borders & Southern (BOR, HOLD, 100.25p)
Borders & Southern (Borders) has a large acreage position in the South
Falklands basin which covers 20,000km2. The main play is a tertiary fold belt within which Borders has identified a number of large (>50km2) anticlinal traps based on the existing 2D seismic data.
Borders is at an earlier stage than the other three Falklands companies as it has yet to identify drillable prospects on its acreage, and is currently expecting to complete processing of the recently acquired 3D data in July or August. However the initial fast track processing has confirmed the existence of the prospects seen on the 2D data and also highlighted the presence of gas hydrates above the crests of some of the anticline structures. Borders has yet to start a farm-out process and retains a 100% interest in the blocks, but with just 12.7mn of cash on the balance sheet will either need to complete a farm-out or raise further equity to fund a proposed 3 well programme that is expected to cost at least US$100mn. We initiate with a HOLD recommendation as, whilst we see that Borders has substantial upside potential, the portfolio is at an earlier stage of development and drillable prospects have yet to be identified. In addition, we see that these assets should be viewed as more risky until Borders completes the final 3D interpretation and gets third party validation through a farm-out.

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH, HOLD, 95.25p)
Rockhoppers licences are located in the northern basin and include wholly
owned interests around Desires acreage in the north and south of the basin and a promoted 7.5% interest in Desires PL03 and 04 licences.
Total prospectivity on the 100% licences is estimated at c3.5bnboe with
individual prospect sizes ranging in the order 100-250mmb. The prospects in the southern part of the basin are seen as higher risk given the lack of the drilling in this area and a different source kitchen is inferred to the proven part of the basin in the north. However, at least two prospects on this acreage have positive CSEM surveys. Rockhopper has initiated a farm-out process but has not ruled out raising equity to cover its share of any future drilling programme. We have assumed the company reduces its stake in the non-Desire licences to a 40% fully carried interest (based on a 1.5:1 promote). It is expected that Rockhopper will share a rig with Desire and drill 2 prospects on its own acreage and be exposed to 2 wells on licences PL03 and 04. Assuming a successful farmdown, we see risked upside of 3x the current share price based on this first campaign and 18x on an unrisked basis. We initiate with a HOLD recommendation. Whilst we see the northern basin as partially proven and highly prospective, we believe Desire has the better position in the sweet spot of the basin. Although Rockhopper has promoted into part of this acreage and is approximately half the market capitalisation, Desire is more leveraged to success, even after the proposed farm-out.

i'd rather have oriel note as its more informative......and 76p is definitely a hold as its only 60 million now.

tim heeley from daniel stewart.....hmmm, dont even like his stupid name....tim by name, tim by nature, probably a thick mick

If there is a general market drop over the summer, then purely on a charting basis, +/- 50p is the next good support level. If the DOW does drop to 9900/10000 then it will drag many U.K. stocks with it, particularly those which have vitually no assets. Brave to buy at the moment, imo.

so u reckon i should sell sometime soon and then buy back in latter part of year?

If I knew the answer to that then I would be on the panel of Dragon's Den, not floundering around with paper losses at the moment.
I did sell all my stocks of DES, FOGL, & RKH in late May, so it is easy for me to now make guesses, but I am expecting a summer slump in stock prices generally.
As for selling, it just depends on your timescale. If you are happy to wait for prices to bounce back, then sit tight. My own opinion is that, after talking to an explosives engineer who works for a big Mid East based Co, Maggie went to war with the primary objective of securing a big oilfield. Oil, yes. How much? Unknown.

its britains last ace up its sleeve.....even gordon brown has sent a ship out there protecting the islands

apart from falklands we have not much to generate wealth anymore.

so u think it will go back to level where it started from...ie 50p

In my opinion the magnitude of the fall in both DES and RKH today is insane, in case of des it was on no real news and in case of rkh it was on the back of what exactly?

The fact that they seem to indicate drilling in 2009 rather than 2008? are people really that concerned about taking their profit in 2008? What a bunch of morons! Well it is pretty obvious that most ppl invested in these stocks have no experience of either investing or the oil industry.

here's a cracker from daniel stewart from last month about iec....predicting 1500p....and 1 month later, its less than 8 quid......never mind thats only about half the price from what useless daniel stewart says.....and they get paid for this woeful advice.....

Shares in Imperial Energy Corporation Plc. jumped higher midmorning after announcing its first new oil discovery at its Kiev Eganskoye field, while UBS raised its price target to 1,500 pence from 1,450 pence and repeated its 'buy' view in reaction.
At 10:42 a.m., shares in Imperial Energy were up 54 pence or 5.51 percent at 1,034, while the FTSE 250 index lost 111.7 points to 9,937.6.

Earlier on Monday, the company said it has discovered first new oil at its Kiev Eganskoye field, East of the OB River in the Tomsk region of the Russian Federation.
Imperial said it is in the process of batch drilling five wells on the Kiev Eganskoye field with three heavy duty rigs, including the company's recently purchased rig 502, and added 14 further wells are planned to be drilled on the field this year.

Commenting this morning, UBS said it thinks this is potentially the most significant discovery in Imperial's history and could be the tip of the iceberg as this result offers significant further potential.

Elsewhere, ABN Amro said it thinks the significance of thes news should not be underestimated and underlines the potential of Imperial's acreage following its successful rights issue.

Finally, Daniel Stewart repeated its 'buy' stance and 1,500 pence price target

Its the same DS that predicted the demise of Silverjet.... they were proved 100% right


Silverjet and Daniel Stewart Securities in credibility stand-off

Industry Sector
Airlines & Airports
Silverjet plc, the British airline offering a private jet experience at a fraction of the price, has rubbished a research note published today by Daniel Stewart Securities.

Silverjet said the note, which set a target share price for Silverjet of zero, contains numerous material mistakes and inaccuracies.

Silverjet added that the Directors remain confident that the Company will achieve its first month of profit before tax in the current financial year ending 31 March 2008. Cash flow will be broadly neutral over the remainder of its current financial year ending 31 March 2008 and the business is expected to be cash generative thereafter.

It would appear that credibility is now just as much at stake as investors money. Daniel Stewart has predicted oblivion for Silverjet, while Silverjet has promised profitability and cash flows. Only time will tell....

Monday, January 14, 2008

http://www.smallcapnews.co.uk/article/Silverjet_and_Daniel_Stewart_Securities_in_credibi/4300.aspx


and

Yesterday's trading: Silverjet in for crash-landing
Geoff Foster, Daily Mail
15 January 2008, 7:50am

Storm clouds hovered above Luton-based business class only airline Silverjet as its shares nosedived 14p to 35p after Daniel Stewart said sell and put a zero price target on the stock.

It believes the group's business model will never work and the company will eventually run out of cash. It raised 12m in a placing at 60p in November. The broker forecasts a pretax loss of 31m for the year to end-March 2008 and a 27m deficit for 2009.
Silverjet's claim that it only needs to sell a certain number of seats to break-even was rubbished by Daniel Stewart which said that its figures do not account for additional costs, such as advertising, administration and depreciation.

These could be quite substantial and with jet fuel prices up around 16% and 'dire' current traffic levels, all airlines are having a rough time. An angry Silverjet fought back last night and said that Daniel Stewart's note contained numerous material mistakes and inaccuracies.

Directors led by chief executive Lawrence Hunt said that Silverjet will achieve its first month of profit before tax in the current year and continues to trade strongly with 5,000 bookings made last week. They say the airline is in a strong financial position having just raised 22m (at 60p).

Rival Maxjet's bankruptcy on Christmas Eve, one of the busiest travel days of the year, was blamed on rising fuel and operating costs, competitive pressures, a decline in consumer spending and the delayed delivery of two Boeing 767-200s.

Broker Arden says that with Maxjet gone, Silverjet is now the cheapest business class service to New York. Meanwhile, investors should remember that the Rueben brothers' stake in the company should rise to 22% on conversion of a loan on February 11.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/tips-and-tactics/article.html?in_article_id=429395&in_page_id=23



and time did tell.. it went bust in May.... DS were spot on !!

where the hell did u come from.....are u some advfn twat....someone that wants to slag off companies and hate seeing a company trying to do well....typical of uk peoiple!!

well i suppose daniel stewart have to get 1 right at some point!!!

dont even like tim heeley name....sounds like a thick paddy b?????......he says "at end of day, u have to drill well if u going to get oil".....wow....is that how it happens, jes thanks tim nice but dim

check out daniel stewart sp....its in tatters....i wonder why? shit analysts thats why and little business....if any!