http://www.afcenergy.com/

Dawnay, Day Corporate Broking Research Note

Aim Admission Document

I would hate to have to sell....this is the potential that ITM never had....

Buying is relentless back up to 27.75p the offer.Kicking myself for nnot topping uo yesterday afternoon and again this am.The momentum is with us?
cyril

Up again....I'm starting to wonder if this will turn into the biggest riser of the year....and not one of the oil stocks....

Seems to have bottomed out today,increased my holdings at just over 24p which i'm hoping is the support level?
cyril

Just wondering how far this is going to go.....is it best to stay put longterm ?, or at some stage to take profits ?....and come back later.....the jury is out for me on this one....difficult to judge the fuelcell ones...unlike oil stocks where you can plan a little ahead.

Looks like brimg pushed in the 3 i's board, here's a sample.

Try reading all the posts from last weekend on iii.

If the 4.2GW power station is built, then in 2021 the SP would probably be over 3000p (30) a share.

The 137p target is an NPV - basically what the SP should be trading at now. Even if one knocks 50% off that then we arrive at 70p.

The Australian government are (according to the Linc CEO) placing tremendous pressure on Linc to get on with it and order the inital 300MW.

Value AFC the same as CFU and the share price would be about 75p.


(following taken from Stocasity on iii)


Sales of AFC's 50kW modular system to Linc at 35K on a 43% margin and a 10% royalty to AFC on power produced generate 20yr cash flow with a NPV of 157m.



Linc said they were looking at 200MW to 250MW for stage 1 of the UCG power:

200MW = 4000 units at 35k = 140,000,000
43% of 140,000,000 = 60,200,000 gross profit
Power = 10% of 48 per MW/h for 7,884 hours per year = 7,568,640 per annum
Water = 33.33% of 7,568,640 = 2,522,627 per annum
Annual maintenance fee = 2,625 x 4,000 = 10,500,000 per annum
ROC/CHP/green energy subsidy = 10% of 35 x 200MW x 7884h = 5,518,800 per annum

250MW = 5000 units at 35k = 175,000,000
43% of 175,000,000 = 75,250,000 gross profit
Power = 10% of 48 per MW/h for 7,884 hours per year = 9,460,800 per annum
Water = 33.33% of 9,460,800 = 3,153,284 per annum
Annual maintenance fee = 2,625 x 5,000 = 13,125,000 per annum
ROC/CHP/green energy subsidy = 10% of 35 x 250MW x 7884h = 6,898,500 per annum



However, in the latest Allenby note it says Linc stage 1 will be 300MW:

300MW = 6000 units at 35k = 210,000,000
43% of 210,000,000 = 90,300,000 gross profit
Power = 10% of 48 per MW/h for 7,884 hours per year = 11,352,960 per annum
Water = 33.33% of 11,352,960 = 3,783,941 per annum
Annual maintenance fee = 2,625 x 6,000 = 15,750,000 per annum
ROC/CHP/green energy subsidy = 10% of 35 x 300MW x 7884h = 8,278,200 per annum



Linc stage 2 raising capacity to 500MW, 2 years later:

500MW = 10,000 units at 35k = 350,000,000
43% of 350,000,000 = 199,500,000 gross profit
Power = 10% of 48 per MW/h for 7,884 hours per year = 18.921.600 per annum
Water = 33.33% of 18.921.600 = 6,306,569 per annum
Annual maintenance fee = 2,625 x 10,000 = 26,250,000 per annum
ROC/CHP/green energy subsidy = 10% of 35 x 500MW x 7884h = 13,797,000 per annum



Allenby think Linc have potential for 4.2GW on their own projects:

4.2GW = 84,000 units at 35k = 2,940,000,000
43% of 2,940,000,000 = 1,264,200,000 gross profit
Power = 10% of 48 per MW/h for 7,884 hours per year = 158,941,440 per annum
Water = 33.33% of 158,941,440 = 52,975,181 per annum
Annual maintenance fee = 2,625 x 84,000 = 220,500,000 per annum
ROC/CHP/green energy subsidy = 10% of 35 x 4200MW x 7884h = 115,894,800 per annum

Work that lot out as EPS with just 150m shares in issue!!


Seems to me the word is out that this is something special,so could fly once again,a nice little RNS would put a rocket to it?
cyril

http://www.afcenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/AFC-Energy-plc-AFC.L-Allenby-Capital-Mar-18-2010.pdf


The above is the lonk to the Allenby report,don't know why but can't get it accepted as norm?
cyril

http://www.lincenergy.com.au

Worth going to the custimer's site, lots of info and interviews.
cyril

Red hot at it again, ref to Allenby report.
"RHPS latest
AFC ENERGY (AFC):

Broker Allenby Capital has published a research note in which it describes AFCs progress as stellar. Commercial tie-ups with Air Products, Centrica, WSP Group and Linc Energy, it adds, are testament to the wholesale power producing potential of AFCs high-efficiency, zero-carbon, low-cost technology". The share price is well above my buy LIMIT "SD HOLD"
cyril

I wonder if this is going to keep going until more than 50p or so....not impossible...

Just picked this up from another board,just seems to make a stronger case for AFC?


Coal has become the ugly sister of power sources, condemned as old-fashioned, ultra-polluting and excessively costly to mine, given that we have exhausted the most easily accessible supplies.

Yet beneath the Firth of Forth, in a coalfield of more than 200 square miles, a project is taking shape that, if successful, would offer an affordable means of reaching billions of tons of deep-lying coal deposits without causing irreparable harm to the environment.

The Firth of Forth field is so deep 500 metres or more beneath the surface that it has not been cost-effective to mine. The attraction of exploiting it has further diminished because of the link between global warming and fossil fuels.

The new scheme, however, would couple two recently improved technologies underground coal gasification and fuel cells. Rather than having the coal dug out, oxygen and water would be pumped down the mine to create a white-hot chemical reaction that turned the coal into gas. This process would not only generate electricity more efficiently than wind, nuclear or conventional gas and coal power plants, but would enable the capture and storage of more than 99 per cent of the CO2 contained in the fuel before it escaped into the atmosphere.

The construction of such a carbon capture and storage (CCS) facility means that environmental objections to using coal as a fuel would be dramatically diluted. Equally, it would enable much more of the world's remaining coal deposits to be mined in Britain alone there are an estimated 17 billion tons suitable for the CCS process.

Coal has been a driving force of the world economy since the Industrial Revolution, and with China, India and the United States sitting on huge reserves, it is expected to remain so for decades, or even centuries, to come. China and the US, the world's two biggest greenhouse gas producers, both rely heavily on coal China, which burnt 2.74 billion tons in 2008, obtains 80 per cent of its electricity from coal, while the US derives 65 per cent.

Annual world consumption of coal is more than 6.5 billion tons, which by 2030 is forecast to rise to 10 billion tons. Scientists have repeatedly given warning that if emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise, there will be little hope of avoiding catastrophic levels of climate change unless the carbon dioxide can be captured and stored.

At the Firth of Forth field, this could be done quite simply. First, the gas produced from the so-called "flash-frying" of the coal would be piped to the surface and cleaned of contaminants. Then it could be run through a traditional generator. But there is a more effective alternative, which involves the gas being separated into two streams. One would consist of hydrogen, which could be fed into high-efficiency fuel cells to be turned into electricity; the other would be the carbon dioxide, for storage. The key to the process is low-cost, alkaline fuel cells, developed by AFC Energy Ltd, which turn hydrogen into electricity, with water as a by-product.

Such is the potential of the scheme that despite its use of coal, usually a guarantee of the environmentalists' ire, it has won the approval of Friends of the Earth. Neil Crumpton, the FoE's energy specialist, describes it as an opportunity to "demonstrate carbon capture technologies without the excuse of claiming to need to build a massive, new coal power station".

With a deal having been struck between Thornton New Energy, which has the licence for the gasification, and Waste2Tricity, which holds the rights to the fuel cells, the scheme is expected to be providing electricity for 25,000 homes by 2012.

"If it all works as planned, it will be a phenomenal step forward," says Ian Arbon, Waste2Tricity's newly appointed chairman and a professor of alternative energy at Newcastle University. "It's the first really sustainable way of developing power from coal that I've come across. It's one of the most exciting things I've ever seen."
cyril

Beijing blasts rubbish tips with deodorant.

The deodorant cannon were invented by employees at the Gao'antun Garbage Landfill Plant, in Beijing's suburbs, after local officials were forced to apologise for the foul smells coming from the dump.

Other devices, such as odour-eating sheets were also brought in, along with a machine that extracts the foul-smelling gases and uses them to generate electricity.

Gao'antun landfill is just one of many sites struggling to process the mountains of rubbish produced by China's heaving capital.

Beijing's 17.6 million residents produce 18,400 tonnes of household garbage daily, 90 per cent of which is dumped in the 13 landfills dispersed around the city, according to state-run news agency Xinhua.

Waste management experts have also expressed doubts over the deodorant scheme.

Somewhere in the article, although for some reason not in the on-line section, is a mention that they could be looking at using the 'gasses' that the rubbish produces to make electricity (ring any bells). With the huge potential of China, perhaps 'Waste2Tricity or/and AFC' should give them a visit.

And just think the problem of uncyclable rubbish is getting worse the world over.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/7623318/Beijing-blasts-rubbish-tips-with-deodorant.html

I like the last rns because it puts AFC into plain english.....the potential for this company is : dare I say it, like a little Microsoft.....I hope that we shall be getting another update soon.....some big contracts just have to be coming their way like the Australian one....I don't often get excited by stocks, but AFC looks fantastic !...

AFC are issuing on average 6 RNS's a month,it seems to be I Balchin style
(ex SEO).i'll be looking for real news ,orders or positive reports on tech
cyril.

Not so happy about the pullback.....but a rebound has to be on the cards soon...

I am removing ALL my research from here due to the constant personal abuse, defamation and distortions of it posted by:

ptholden

hlyeo98

halifax

blackdown

kimoldfield

cynic


This bunch of abusive retards is the reason MoneyAM will NEVER have a forum worth reading.

I have reported them to support by they do nothing, either because they want to force me to PAY them for the Traders Room or because they are too lazy to do anything. Maybe the people in support are the ones perpetrating the abuse, so as to force people to pay for the premium boards. Either way the service is sh1te and a disgrace to the finance industry. No wonder there is nobody left here apart from morons.

I will continue posting my good research on boards that are run in accordance with FSA and LSE listing rules and the interests of the market, not here where ar5eh0les rule the boards and all decent research is buried under their piles of sh1te.

No News for a While, Impatient YES, Worried No.

Although short of news lately, I may be getting impatient, but I am not worried. Sooner have news of the type that was hinted at to those who attended the open days, than just the hype and innuendo that many companies, especially those that have small market caps put out (remember SEO) .
Patience is needed. This hopefully will end up like an avalanche of orders. Avalanches as we know start off slow, but once they gather momentum they are impossible to stop.
The avenues available to AFC are enormous, it looks as if it is all down to the technology being proven to be as good as the theory. No matter how good test results are, the crunch is always as to how good those results translate in the field.
So we are not there yet, and perhaps I am being too cautious, but that is why my view is a weak buy.

Nice rise....must be news soon...perhaps with new contracts....

Would be nice.
cyril

I am removing ALL my research from here due to the constant personal abuse, defamation and distortions of it posted by:

ptholden

hlyeo98

halifax

blackdown

kimoldfield

cynic


This bunch of abusive retards is the reason MoneyAM will NEVER have a forum worth reading.

I have reported them to support by they do nothing, either because they want to force me to PAY them for the Traders Room or because they are too lazy to do anything. Maybe the people in support are the ones perpetrating the abuse, so as to force people to pay for the premium boards. Either way the service is sh1te and a disgrace to the finance industry. No wonder there is nobody left here apart from morons.

I will continue posting my good research on boards that are run in accordance with FSA and LSE listing rules and the interests of the market, not here where ar5eh0les rule the boards and all decent research is buried under their piles of sh1te.