Having taken a plunge many house builders are now possibly on the up again.

Considering a short on this one anyone got a view?

Gone short at 442

the attached chart may help you a bit.
i am short WOS (qv) which i think shows a better pattern for shorting and is more generally focussed within the sector

Bovis hit the 50 ma on the weekly, some results out this Friday,likely writedowns, I believe with possible rate cut to spice things up. Seems overbought and at top of channel I.m short Wos too from 416. Difficult to know when Obama rally will self destruct. Dow seems to have broken through recent 8875-9100 trading range. FTSE didn't quite make 4700 which seemed fib retracement 6660-3600 roughly 38%

Interim results out today. Should make for interesting reading.

Business Financial Newswire
"Bovis Homes reported a first-half pre-exceptional profit of 1.2m, down from 11.7m last year.

The group said it is well positioned to take advantage of increasing number of opportunities to invest, but remains cautious on pricing
expectations. Bovis added that it has seen signs of market stabilisation in 2009.

Revenue in the first half-year ended June was 122.6m (2008 H1: 149.3m).

Pre-exceptional profit before tax was 1.2m (2008 H1: 11.7m) and pre-exceptional earnings per share were 0.4p (2008 H1: 7.1p).

Post-exceptional loss before tax of 8.6m (2008 H1: 9.5m profit)

Pre-exceptional gross margin of 16.2% (2008 H1: 26.3%) with pre-exceptional operating margin at 5.9% (2008 H1: 10.0%), reflecting the impact of falling average sales prices over 2008

Bovis said it had strategic landholdings of 18,588 potential plots
(31st December 2008: 18,972 potential plots).

Limited land write-downs of 8.9m were required as at 30th June 2009.

Net cash inflow was 94m in the period (2008 H1: 49m outflow).

Net debt before issue costs was 14m and gearing was 2% at 30th June 2009."

"Bovis Homes is pleased to announce the successful completion of the placing announced earlier today (the 'Placing').

A total of 12.1 million new ordinary shares of 50 pence each in Bovis Homes (the 'Placing Shares') have been placed by Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch ('Deutsche Bank') and RBS Hoare Govett Limited (RBS Hoare Govett) at a placing price of 500 pence per share, raising gross proceeds of approximately 60 million. The Placing Shares being issued represent approximately 10 per cent of Bovis Homes' issued ordinary share capital prior to the Placing."

BVS - BOVIS HOMES trading statement friday 15/1/2010



Fundies Backup..

BROKER CALL: Credit Suisse remains bullish on UK housebuilders
12 January, 2010 07:34:30 AM

Broker tells us: 'We cite an average 58% upside potential to our target prices. We now expect flat house prices in 2010 (previously down 5%) and thus do not anticipate any further impairments across the sector (we believe prices need to fall 14% from current levels for further impairments). We see the sector valuation, at 1.0x NAV, as attractive.' Credit Suisse retains its outperform ratings on Barratt (TP: 257p), Bellway (TP: 1256p from 1200p), Bovis (TP: 774p from 750p), Persimmon (TP: 642p from 606p), Redrow (TP: 215p) and Taylor Wimpey (TP: 65p). Maintains its neutral rating on Berkeley (TP: 920p from 903p).

and 3 from yesterday...

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Davy Stockbrokers
11-01-10 None 3.10 9.00

Panmure Gordon
11-01-10 BUY 7.64 4.46 19.70 10.70

Arbuthnot Securities
11-01-10 BUY 5.00 5.82 12.50 10.40

a number of the housebuilders doing very well, inc BDEV and PSN ..... still holding former, but took defensive profits in PSN yesterday.

as a periphery, also worth having a look at PAG which is a/the leading mortgage provider

yep and.......

House builders can rise even if house prices stall in 2010

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/markets-companies-and-funds/content.aspx?ID=376104
Housebuilders get a welcome boost from Credit Suisse

Broker note out....

14-Jan-10 Bovis Homes Group BVS Panmure Gordon Buy 455.00p 574.00p - Reiteration

SP target 574p

Excelent trading update statement, SP should go from strength to strength going forward.....

Bovis house sales bounce back
Fri 15 Jan 2010

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Housebuilder Bovis ended last year with cash in hand and has now started to buy land again after house sales last year rose by 25% and average prices increased by 2.5%.

The group legally completed 1,803 homes in 2009 (2008: 1,817), of which 1,527 were private homes, up 25% on the prior year (2008: 1,223) and 276 were social and partnership homes (2008: 594).

At 154,600, the average sales price in 2009 was 2.5% higher than the equivalent in 2008 (150,800). This rise was heavily influenced by a falling contribution in the sales mix from lower priced social and partnership homes, which made up just 15% of the mix in 2009 versus 33% in 2008.

The average sales price of the group's private homes in 2009 was 165,500 versus 181,000 in 2008.

Pre-exceptional pre-tax profit will be in line with the board's expectations, Bovis added, while it will benefit from a net inventory provision release as land values recover.

Bovis also said it had cash at 113m at the year end and will use this and a renegotiated bank facility to re-invest in residential land, to increase the output capacity of the group. Bovis acquired four sites in late 2009, with terms agreed in principle on a further 15 sites.

The group received 1,801 private home reservations during the year, 82% ahead of the prior year's 989 private reservations, though it is still cautious over the outlook for 2010.

The group continues to expect trading conditions in 2010 to be subdued relative to historical levels, given ongoing economic uncertainty. Mortgage approval volumes are slowly rising, but mortgage providers continue to require record high levels of deposits, particularly from first-time buyers. This all said, longer-term market demand and supply trends remain positive, it said.

Final Results.

PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2009

Issued 8 March 2010



The Board of Bovis Homes Group PLC today announced its preliminary results for 2009 which have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards as adopted by the EU ('IFRS').



Pre tax profit for the year of 4.8 million (2008: pre tax loss of 78.7 million)

Basic earnings per share of 2.8p (2008: basic loss per share 49.1p)

Pre-exceptional pre tax profit of 7.5 million (2008: 14.4 million)

Pre-exceptional basic earnings per share of 4.4p (2008: 9.2p per share)

Net inventory provision release of 11.6 million in the second half year

Total exceptional charges of 2.7 million (2008: 93.1 million)

112 million of net cash at 31 December 2009 (2008: 108 million net debt pre issue costs)

Cheaper, longer term and more flexible banking facilities agreed at the end of 2009

Overheads cut by 34% versus 2008 and by circa 45% relative to base at start of 2008

Land acquisition recommenced, with four consented sites acquired and terms agreed in principle on further 15 sites at 31 December 2009

12,042 plots of land with planning consent (2008: 13,545 plots) and 16,363 potential plots of strategic land (2008: 18,972 potential plots)

Market rumour of BVS being a possible taget of Persimmon. Seems to be preferred over BDEV and others.

I don't think it was a rumour as such Harry. Last week when BDEV rose due to a rumour about it being picked-up by PSN, an analyst said it was unlikely to be true because if PSN was going to target anyone, more likely it would be BVS.

Ah, cheers for that. Was wondering if I should pick up some BVS just on bid speculation, but might hang on for a bit longer.

Might be worth a trading buy on Bovis Homes BVS. Lower indicators turning positive, housing recovery going on and market up today.

Trading well below Broker forecasts....

Date Broker name New Price Old price target New price target Broker change

19-May-10 Deutsche Buy 389.00p 507.00p 521.00p Upgrade

07-May-10 Panmure Gordon Buy 372.90p 555.00p 553.00p Reiteration

07-May-10 Goldman Sachs Neutral 372.90p 460.00p 458.00p Reiteration

14-Apr-10 Collins Stewart Buy 418.00p 575.00p - Reiteration

Trading Statement.

Sales and profits growth

In line with management expectations, the Group legally completed 1,901 homes in 2010 (2009: 1,803 homes), an increase of 5%, of which 1,592 were private homes (2009: 1,527 homes) and 309 were social homes (2009: 276 social homes). The Group's average sales price in 2010 was 160,700, 4% higher than the equivalent of 154,600 in 2009. This increase was driven by growth in the Group's average private sales price in 2010 to 172,400 from 165,500 in 2009.


Strong balance sheet; land acquisitions to fuel growth

The cash position of the Group as at 31 December 2010 remained strong, with net cash of 52 million, having started 2010 with 113 million of net cash. The overall cash outflow was contributed to by payments during the year of c.138 million relating to land investment, with strong operating cash inflows pre-land expenditure of c.93 million.


Return to dividend

The Group has delivered early success with its growth strategy and the Board is confident in its further delivery, based on current market conditions. Given this confidence, the Board has decided to recommence the payment of dividends to shareholders. Based on the anticipated 2010 profits and the Group's robust balance sheet position, the Group will declare a dividend for 2010, subject to approval by shareholders at the 2011 Annual General Meeting, which will be paid in May 2011.

Gone short here, Support at 330p gone.

Peel hunt and Investec have a outright sell on the stock.