Investec slapped a BUY reco on this late yesterday whilst broker Panmure has a firm hold.


National Express Group PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Investec Securities
07-12-09 BUY 116.00 29.93 137.18 35.46

Panmure Gordon
07-12-09 HOLD 118.98 30.88 143.17 37.16

RNS Number : 4471E
National Express Group PLC
21 December 2009



National Express Group PLC




Pre Close Statement







National Express Group PLC ("National Express" or "the Group"), the international public transport operator, today releases a pre-close trading update ahead of the year ending 31 December 2009.




Summary




Trading has continued in line with the trends reported in the third quarter Interim Management Statement on 22 October 2009, with full year profit expected to be consistent with the previous outlook.




Overall, the underlying revenue* trend has stabilised in the fourth quarter, in line with the previously reported rate. Both the UK and Spain continue to deliver a strong operating performance, with cost efficiencies offsetting areas of revenue weakness. Action in North America will start to address continued underperformance in operational cost management, while revenue has declined as expected on previous lower contract renewals.




During the fourth quarter, the Group has successfully delivered its key objectives:





We have successfully completed a strongly supported rights issue to achieve a more robust capital structure and significantly reduce debt to an appropriate level;


We have resolved our outstanding rail issues, by completing the exit from the loss-making East Coast franchise in November 2009 and with the UK government indicating that the Group will continue to operate its remaining two rail franchises to their normal termination dates in 2011**;


We have appointed Dean Finch as Group Chief Executive, to focus on delivering our future strategy; driving cost efficiency, maximising cash generation and selectively growing the business where value is enhanced.





These developments have built on our earlier success, with annualised cost savings of 50 million secured in 2009 and strong organic cash generation reducing underlying debt.




Performance




UK Coach has returned to underlying revenue growth, of 4%, in the fourth quarter, with successful marketing and yield management offering even better value for our customers. Our new Birmingham coach station has opened for business, delivering a major improvement in customer experience. UK Bus underlying revenue growth has remained resilient at 2% year to date, despite the ongoing impact of higher regional unemployment. Fares are being held, to support customer retention and encourage travel, and we have optimised route coverage to protect profitability. In Rail, reduced demand in East Anglia continues to be offset through revenue support. The final element of the 2009 UK cost reduction programme has been announced, to deliver the Group's full 50 million of annualised savings, and placing the UK business in a stronger position for 2010.




Encouragingly, in Spain the rate of underlying revenue decline has improved to 5%, although economic conditions remain challenging. Urban operations have been relatively stable, while there are signs of improvement in regional travel revenue. In long distance travel, operating kilometres have been reduced to match lower demand. Extensions of several concessions have been secured for a period of 10 years, reflecting a commitment by regional authorities to bus transport as a more efficient and sustainable solution.




As expected, revenue in North America has declined with the start of the new school year, reflecting previous lower contract renewals. Performance in managing costs, particularly from double-running in the centralisation of operations, has been disappointing, impacting margin. This will benefit from a stronger management action plan to be rolled out in 2010, supported by tailoring of the Business Transformation programme to optimise cost and benefit.




Commenting on the statement, Executive Chairman, John Devaney, said:




"This has been a challenging year for National Express but, as it draws to a close, I am pleased that we have tackled and resolved our significant issues. We have eliminated the loss-making elements of our rail business and restored our balance sheet through a well-supported rights issue. National Express will enter 2010 on a sound basis, enabling our new Group Chief Executive Dean Finch and the team to focus on improving the performance of our market-leading businesses and delivering shareholder value."







Enquiries:




National Express Group PLC



Jez Maiden, Group Finance Director
020 7506 4324

Nicole Lander, Director of Communications
0121 460 8401






Maitland



Neil Bennett/George Hudson
020 7379 5151

sticky .... condense, condense, condense or edit, edit, edit! .... bought a few the other day and shall prob just sit on them for a few months

Tipped Yesterday.....

Sunday Times

At the start of the year National Express looked to be skidding off the tracks.The bus and train group was weighed down by a toxic mix of mounting losses on its East Coast rail franchise and too much debt. In short, the City feared for its future.

Bids from rival Stagecoach may have failed but as the year draws to a close National Express, against all odds, looks well placed to start motoring again.

The company has secured its financial future with a 360m rights issue that will help it halve its 1bn debt pile. Shares are trading at eight times 2010 earnings. At this price they are worth tucking away as an each-way bet. Buy.

Cyners..... amazing after todays update investech have notifyed to the market that they reamain with there initial target........... gob smacked myself but here it is freshly in......

Company Rating Target Price Potential Upside/ Downside Contributing Broker

National Express Group Buy

437p target 133.3% Investec

133.3% upside.

broker Buy reco out late yesterday....

National Express Group PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Investec Securities
13-01-10 BUY 116.00 29.93 137.18 35.46

already got them!

SP broken out through ceiling of uptrend channel. Very bullish signal. New upleg on way !!

NEX

Tipped inn Investors Inteligence this morning.....



Portfolio Update

Two long positions performed better than expected. National Express, a position initiated two days ago, broke to the upside (see right). This raises the possibility of a rally to 300p. We gingerly up the stop to 258p.

sp down 10% after IMS.

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Looking rather bullish.

Half Year Results 25 July 2013

NEX looking sexy.

Ex divi wed 4th Sept (3.25p)

Ex-divi wed 30th Apr (6.75p)

StockMarketWire.com
National Express said during the period July 1 to date it has continued its strong progress. Q3 pretax profit was nearly 15% higher than the same period last year. "We are on target to meet our profit and cash expectations for the full year."

The company said it was progressively recovering the one-offs and currency translation impacts experienced in H1 through the delivery of revenue growth, performance improvements and cost efficiencies.

CEO Dean Finch commented:

"We have made good progress this quarter. We have won new contracts, renewed key concessions, and increased revenues in every division. Our profit last quarter was up on the same period in 2013, helping to offset the one-offs of the first half year. Our cash generation continues to be strong and will remain a focus for the business.

"This quarter again demonstrates that our strategy, rooted in excellent operational performance and customer service, is delivering retention and progression in our existing markets and securing expansion in to profitable new business. It is an approach we are determined to build on as we look at other opportunities in the coming months and years."

National Express continued to focus on driving strong cash generation and capital discipline:

· It was on course to deliver full year free cash flow target of £150 million, delivering nearly £500 million between 2012 and 2014;

· It was deploying capital selectively to protect and grow the business, investing in over 250 new buses over the next 12 months in UK Bus;

· The company's core diversified markets limit exposure and provide good growth potential;

· There would be a continued focus on cash generation in the coming years, developing capital light opportunities, reinvesting selectively in growth projects and driving shareholder value. National Express reported rising passenger numbers and revenue in every division this year:

· UK Bus has delivered 4% total revenue growth in the period and 3% year-to-date;

· Revenue is growing in Alsa with the successful roll out of revenue management in Spanish coach operations. Passenger volumes are now growing on all but one of the rail competed corridors and revenue has now recovered to the prior year level, delivering rapid progress;

· UK Coach has continued to build on last year's success, carrying 5% more passengers in the core express network year to date;

· North America has grown its number of routes, on the back of 98% targeted contract retention in the recent bid season;

· UK Rail has grown both revenue and passenger numbers and is well advanced on new franchise mobilisation.

It had also won new contracts and retained key concessions:

· Won a 10-year contract to run bus services in Bahrain, opening up the Middle East region for further growth;

· Retained and grown the company's largest Spanish concession to have come up for renewal so far - a €600 million total revenue contract for regional coach services in the Bilbao metropolitan region for up to 15 years;

· These achievements are built on the important successes earlier in the year, including: the retention of the 15 year, £4 billion Essex Thameside ('c2c') rail franchise; renewal of its largest US Transit contract; retention and significant growth of National Express' Memphis School Bus contract, becoming its largest contract in the US; successfully commissioning its new Moroccan bus franchise in Tangiers.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express has improved its FY pretax profit to £66.5m, from £64.4m a year earlier. Revenue was £1.87bn, from £1.89bn. It proposed a FY dividend of 10.3p a share, up 3% on the year.

CEO Dean Finch said:
"National Express has made significant progress over the past year. Every division is carrying more passengers and has grown revenue. We have successfully retained key existing contracts, recently won another two rail contracts in Germany and this month started operating our Bahrain bus contract.

"I am particularly pleased with our very strong cash performance, which has again exceeded our target.

"This strong performance means we are in an excellent position to continue to exploit new opportunities.

"Our North American business has more than doubled profitability in the last five years and provides us with a strong platform for further growth in the coming years. Coupled with the opportunity for further growth in German Rail and the Middle East, I am optimistic about the future prospects of the business."

Highlights:
· Group revenue increased 2% to £1.87 billion on a constant currency basis; down 1% on a reported basis (2013: £1.89bn)

· Group normalised profit before tax rose 7% to £145.4 million on a constant currency basis; up 1% on a reported basis (2013: £143.7m)

· Statutory Group profit before tax grew by 3% to £66.5 million (2013: £64.4m); up 10% on a constant currency basis

· Group ROCE increased to 12.4% (2013: 11.7%)

· Year-on-year EPS growth of 6% to 22.7 pence (2013: 21.5 pence)

· Free cash flow of £190 million is £40 million ahead of target and higher than last year (2013: £182.8m). Since 2009, National Express has generated £1billion of free cash

· Net debt reduced by over £80 million to £664.3 million (2013: £746.1m)

StockMarketWire.com
National Express has made a good start to 2015 and is on track to deliver the Board's expectations for the full year, its CEO, Dean Finch, said. The results reflect the company's ongoing commitment to deliver excellent operational performance and customer service.

"We continue to drive our strategy to develop opportunities in existing and new markets with a number of exciting bids submitted since the start of the year and our plans for further bids are progressing well. We have seen the successful mobilisation of our operations in Bahrain, our first bus service contract in the Middle East, which we see as an important stepping stone towards further growth in the region.

"We continue to see Germany as an important market for our ambitions in rail and see prospects for further growth there. We believe that, in time, German Rail will make a significant contribution to Group earnings.

"Around the world, whether as a result of privatisations in Western countries or pressure for improved public transport in developing and emerging economies, we see a range of exciting opportunities for us. Our portfolio of assets uniquely positions National Express to exploit these opportunities.

"Cash generation remains strong and we are well placed to seek new avenues of growth, enabling us to continue to deliver shareholder value. In light of this and our long-term future in rail, we will review our dividend policy as the year progresses."

Performance highlights include:
· Growth in revenue across all divisions with passenger volumes up 2%

· Group profit ahead year-on-year after adjusting for one-off costs of adverse weather in North America and the strike in Spain last year, and also after absorbing increased premium charges in c2c in 2015

· Gearing is lower than in the same period last year and we remain on target to generate £100 million of free cash flow in 2015

· Strong financial performance in UK Bus, supported by passenger demand and cost control

· Encouraging start to the new c2c franchise ahead of the bid plan, with passenger volume growth of 4% and revenue growth of 10% boosted by good growth in peak and off-peak travel

· Revenue management in Spain delivering growth of 4% in revenue and 7% in passenger volume on actively managed routes - further roll out ongoing

· Strong growth in Morocco with revenue up 17%, driven by the scaling-up of operations in Tangier

· Continued strong contract retention in North America School Bus at 99% coupled with an average price increase of 5% in the current bid season, offsetting wage pressures

· New contract wins in UK Coach to operate from Stansted Airport and with British Airways to provide transport services for passengers and crew across the UK

· 1 million passenger journeys delivered in Bahrain since the successful mobilisation of our bus service operations in February

StockMarketWire.com
National Express has hiked its H1 pretax profit to £54.2m, from £23.4m. Group revenue was up 2.2% to £960.2m, from £939.5m. It proposed an interim dividend of 3.685p a share, up 10%on the year.

"The Group has made strong progress in the first half of the year with results in line with expectations and both revenue and profit up year-on-year," it said in a statement.

"We have achieved further significant new contract wins and we remain on target to generate £100 million of free cash for the full year. Our strong operational and financial position means we are both able to invest in growth and increase our interim dividend payment by 10%."

Financial highlights include:

· Revenue growth in every division in constant currency; Group revenue up 2.2% year-on-year to £960.2 million (2014: £939.5m).

· A 6% increase in like-for-like Group operating profit, after excluding rail and Middle East bid costs and at constant currency; Group normalised operating profit rose by 19%; statutory profit after tax increased by 117%.

· Return on capital employed increased to 11.9% (31 Dec 2014: 10.7%); excluding rail and Middle East bid costs return on capital employed has improved to 12.8% (31 Dec 2014: 12.4%).

· On target to generate £100m of free cash for the year.

· A proposed interim dividend of 3.685 pence, up 10% year-on-year (2014: 3.35 pence).

Consistent delivery against our strategy of operational excellence, driving strong returns and developing new business opportunities:
· Excellent start to the new c2c franchise with revenue growth of 10%, ahead of bid plan.

· Successful bid season in North America School Bus with an average price increase of 2.8% across the entire portfolio of contracts. Two small acquisitions were made at the end of the period and a new transit contract won.

· Further success in German rail with the awarding of two contracts for Rhine Ruhr Express services; contracted revenues secured now worth €2.6 billion.

· Successful mobilisation of our bus service operations in Bahrain, our first entry into the Middle East and opening further opportunities in the region including a joint bid already submitted to run bus operations in Makkah, Saudi Arabia.

· Continued progress in Spain of our revenue management programme on intercity routes competing with rail, with passengers up 7% and revenue increasing 4% on these flows. We have also won a fourth Moroccan bus contract.

· Shortlisted for the East Anglia rail franchise, which is due to be awarded in mid-2016, and commence in autumn 2016.

· We welcome the West Midlands ITA's decision to establish a new 'Bus Alliance' to build on our award-winning partnership

StockMarketWire.com
National Express said it has continued its strong progress in the period 1 July to Sept. 30. Revenue has grown year on year in every division on a constant currency basis over this important core summer period.

"Our focus on operational excellence continues to open new market opportunities, deliver strong cash flows and secure widespread external recognition for us as the leader in the markets we serve," the company said in a statement.

"Year to date, like-for-like Group operating profit is 6% higher after excluding rail and Middle East bid costs on a constant currency basis and up 16% on a reported basis.

"Our businesses have performed well in the period and as we enter the final quarter, we remain on course to deliver our cash flow target for the year and are confident of delivering good-quality growth for 2015 as a whole."

Highlights:

· Group revenue up 3% on a constant currency basis with revenue up in every division.

· Like-for-like Group operating profit up 7% in the period, after excluding rail and Middle East bid costs and at constant currency.

· Continued excellent performance in c2c ahead of bid plan's forecasts, with 10% growth in revenue and 5% passenger growth year to date.

· Record passenger numbers, the on-going successful roll out of our Revenue Management System and continued strong growth in Morocco have delivered increased revenues of nearly 3.5% on a constant currency basis in our Spanish division.

· Revenue growth in North America of 3% excluding targeted exited contracts, resulting in further progress on our margin improvement strategy.

· Commercial revenue growth of 2% in UK Bus and approval for a five year 'Bus Alliance' by the West Midlands ITA, succeeding our existing partnership.

· Strong revenue growth of 3.5% in our core UK Coach business, including a record for July passenger numbers.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express Group has announced that its Spanish business, ALSA, has had the award of a contract under the Spanish Government's Imserso pensioner holiday scheme confirmed.

ALSA's contract award has been confirmed for an initial two years, with the option of a two year extension. Across the four years ALSA will obtain more than 80 million Euro in revenue. Ticket sales have already opened and the first journeys will begin on the 12th December. The Company added that the contract will be profitable from the start.

The Imserso pensioner holiday scheme is a Government programme that supports the Spanish tourist industry outside of the holiday season by providing subsidised trips for pensioners. The consortium ALSA is part of has won the contract for Spanish pensioners to travel to the Balearic and Canary islands.

Specifically, ALSA will operate the passenger transfers to and from Spanish Airports, between the Balearic and Canary island airports and resorts and tourist tours on the islands. ALSA will also provide some catering services and expects to carry more than 270,000 passengers a year.

Dean Finch, National Express Group Chief Executive, said: "This is an important contract win for ALSA and is profitable from day one. Imserso is a well-known initiative for the Spanish tourist industry and we are hopeful that there could be the opportunity to expand our work further. This award builds on the important progress ALSA has made this year, including a fourth new contract in Morocco and a record number of passengers carried over the Summer months. We look forward to delivering these Spanish holidaymakers with high quality comfort and service."