Good to see we have solid broker backing here and not suprised with it being so cheap. A foward P/E of just over 11 to 2011 is very miserly.

ITE Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Numis Securities Ltd
15-07-10 BUY 33.50 10.20 5.70 39.00 12.00 5.90

Singer Capital Markets Ltd
15-07-10 BUY 34.20 10.30 5.70 41.40 12.60 6.00

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
15-07-10 HOLD 33.95 10.25 5.70 39.52 12.04 5.90

Investec Securities
24-06-10 BUY 36.04 11.01 5.72 40.24 12.24 5.95

Altium Securities
22-06-10 BUY 33.80 10.40 5.50 38.80 11.90 5.70

Collins Stewart
18-05-10 BUY 10.50 12.60

2010 2011
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 33.87 10.32 5.70 39.57 12.09 5.92

1 Month Change 0.03 -0.08 -0.00 -0.07 -0.04 -0.03
3 Month Change 1.06 0.23 0.01 1.56 0.47 -0.04


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 36.55% -18.72% 17.11%
DPS 10.42% 7.64% 3.70%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA 47.78m 35.41m 40.99m

EBIT 42.71m 31.50m 36.30m

Dividend Yield 3.76% 4.05% 4.20%

Dividend Cover 2.40x 1.81x 2.04x

PER 11.10x 13.66x 11.66x

PEG 0.30f -0.73f 0.68f

Net Asset Value PS -2.50p 24.10p 29.10p

5 Feb 2014 ITE Group PLC ITE Westhouse Securities Add 269.45 268.20 320.00 320.00 Retains

SP TARGET 320p

Canaccord note on the impact of the Russian/Ukraine dispute:
"Mounting tension in the Ukraine is creating increasing risk for ITE, given its core focus on Russia and the former CIS. Ukraine is a relatively small part of ITE’s business – management recently commented that it was monitoring “political uncertainty” there, but that the impact would be “immaterial” on group profits – however, the Ukraine generates over £7m of gross profit or 8% of the group total. At this stage, ITE’s events in Ukraine are still taking place, and the impact will likely be more an issue for FY15. Of greater concern, however, is the potential response from the international community on Russia, where ITE generates 65% of group profits. US Secretary of State John Kerry has warned that “American businesses may pull back” from Russia, and there are already warnings of trade sanctions, visa restrictions. This clearly represents an escalating risk for ITE.
Impact on the Canaccord Genuity view In the short term, the biggest risk to ITE’s profit forecasts is the further weakening of the Ruble. At the time of ITE’s Q1 update in January, we adjusted our forecasts to a Ruble/£ rate of 56. It has now weakened to 61 and we estimate that every 1 RUB move impacts ITE by c.£0.5m. The further impact on ITE’s business is harder to call and, given the annual booking cycle for its events, we see this as more of a risk for FY15. At this stage, we are downgrading our forecasts to reflect the FX impact, moving our FY14 PBT (norm) from £58.8m/18.6p to £56.2m/17.8p, based on a GBP/RUB rate of 61, a 4% downgrade. We have a 4% downgrade to FY15 on FX, but clearly, there is greater risk here.
Valuation ITE’s shares are off by 7% YTD, but against a weak sub sector backdrop, and the shares have been relatively resilient since the situation in Ukraine escalated – indeed, they have risen since the January trading update (which resulted in modest FXdriven downgrades). The shares are trading on a calendarised 2014F PER of 15.5x and an EV/Ebitda of 12.4x, which feels relatively high to us given the increasing risk to its core market. We reduce our multiples-derived TP from 315p to 263p, which would put the shares on an 11.5x EV/Ebitda and 14.0x cash adjusted PER. We reduce from Buy to HOLD."

Ex divi 8th Jan 2015 (4.9p)